China dilemma

[SOL]

While China is cracking down on many sectors, there is some good there. And in the long run despite the outlook looking not so bright now, China is going to do things that will surprise the world

This story is one example

China’s top court says 996 overtime culture is illegal

Chinese tech companies’ excessive work hours were once seen as the secret to their success, endorsed by moguls like Alibaba founder Jack Ma. Now, the country’s authorities are sending corporations a firm warning to stop this practice.

China’s top court, the Supreme People’s Court, and the country’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, jointly issued a memo yesterday (Aug. 26) that included 10 court decisions on labor disputes about overtime work and corresponding compensation. In one case, the court said a delivery worker, who was required to work from 9am to 9pm, six days a week, a schedule known widely in China as “996,” was fired after declining to work such long hours. The court ruled that the company in question should compensate the worker 8,000 yuan ($1,233) for illegally terminating its contract with them, and said the 996 work schedule “has seriously violated the maximum overtime work hours regulated by Chinese law, and hence should be seen as invalid.”

https://qz.com/2052452/china-says-the-t ... source=YPL

They are also reigning in the power of tech stocks which is a good thing over the long run

Some companies are moving into the oversold ranges and eventually will become screaming buys and then we will jump in regardless of what the experts have to say. Buy when fear is running high. Fear levels need to edge up a bit more but we are fast approaching that level.

[DrSven]

Though I think the current beating down of china tech is an overreaction, I reduced my china tech plays last week, mainly to bank the losses for tax reasons. Now, I am wathcing and waiting to go back in. Good to know, you are watching too, SOL. Let us know, when they reach screaming buy state.

[Triplethought]

The latest hit today has them shutting down video games except 3 hours per week.

[Yodean]

The latest hit today has them shutting down video games except 3 hours per week.

Old news. Likely baked into current prices.

Also, that "spiritual opium" video game rhetoric applies mostly to minors, and ain't gonna work much. E-sports, gaming, etc. is not going away.

Everything will be gamified - Asia is a bit ahead in this mega-trend, but the West will inevitably follow. In places like South Korea, Taiwan, etc., top gamers may make seven figures+ USD annually and enjoy the equivalent fame and notoriety as professional athletes in the West.

I spend a not insignificant amount of time monitoring global capital flows, and there's a lot of money going into China (and the U.S.). No matter what anyone says, Western Europe is a complete mess (sorry Stefk), and the big and smart money are mostly going into the top two economies, bit by bit.

This type of news is likely more indicative of emerging trends:

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is launching its first mutual fund offering in China even as the government's regulatory campaign continues to escalate, according to a Bloomberg report.
The China New Horizon Mixed Securities Investment Fund's debut is slated for August 30, coming two months after China's securities regulator gave BlackRock a license to sell its products to Chinese investors. The fund will hit on sectors that are seeing swift growth in China, including energy, retirement services, and "digital transformation," according to Bloomberg.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 21-08?op=1

*****

Perhaps one more significant downleg to kill the early bulls in the CTTs (like me, but I am countering with the FDG, thus far quite successfully) , then the trend should be firmly up, likely before early 2022.

[stefk]

""Western Europe is a complete mess (sorry Stefk)""

Dont be sorry mate, I totally agree. Look at the elections in september in Germany. The socialists and the greens will rule this country and also Europe. The german ecologists are real green khmers. Germany and France become leninist marxist countries. I begin seriously to think to leave Europe, but where to go ??? and we refuse to be vaxxed....

[Budge]

The latest hit today has them shutting down video games except 3 hours per week.

Perhaps one more significant downleg to kill the early bulls in the CTTs (like me, but I am countering with the FDG, thus far quite successfully) , then the trend should be firmly up, likely before early 2022.

As I mentioned earlier, I had positions in CTTs. Added JD and PDD last week, but didn't get filled on MPNGF, never hit my limit price. WB up move but another down leg coming.

BABA monthly chart, in the "dog house" a while longer.
BIDU monthly, might even hit low $100s.
DIDI not enough data but from daily chart, $9.5 the ceiling of any up move.
JD monthly, headed up.
PDD monthly ditto.
TCEHY monthly ditto.
ZH same as DIDI, not enough data. Daily chart looks like it heads higher.
MPNGF weekly going up but might be turned back low $40s.

Here's the thing: the short-term world situation. Who wins out? The "go to war with China" types (neo-cons/WEF) or "I've been bribed to look the other way" types (conceivably everyone else). Longer-term, here comes China's turn at the top.

[SOL]

""Western Europe is a complete mess (sorry Stefk)""

Dont be sorry mate, I totally agree. Look at the elections in september in Germany. The socialists and the greens will rule this country and also Europe. The german ecologists are real green khmers. Germany and France become leninist marxist countries. I begin seriously to think to leave Europe, but where to go ??? and we refuse to be vaxxed....

Well sadly, I have been saying this for a while regarding Europe but now America leads the way to the Doghouse.
Even Poland which I used to consider superb is becoming cuckoo regarding vaccines, but they seem to be open to allowing Europeans in with a PCR test but won't only allow unvaccinated Americans and most of Europe is set to follow in its footsteps which will be a big massive blow

So in Europe, you have Romania, Ukraine (if you go there LVIV is the place to go or at least start off), possibly Poland unless they change their minds on insisting on vaccines for all EU members

Now surprise surprise, very high on the list is Turkey. They are signs now everywhere for citizenship and on the Mediterranean side, it is almost a dream come true, the cost of living in unbelievably low due to the plunge in the lira. Property prices have dropped so you can get something beautiful for a fraction if its cost. They love foreigners especially in the coastal towns, like Marmaris, Antalya, etc. Marmaris is 50 minutes away from Greece by High-speed ferry. Food quality is superb. Fresh, fruit and veggies are almost free compared to Europe. And medical facilities are very good.

Greece is also another potential option and easy for you as it is a member of the EU.

In Asia, Vietnam is possibly the best option for foreigners as the cuisine is easy to adapt to and there seems to be a lot of European influence as their pastries and baked products are superb. The wines are good and incredibly cheap. Food quality is also good and it is a relatively cheap place to live if you rent. One place that is very scenic and the temperature akin to Europe is Dalat, also known as little Paris. It is extremely beautiful and in the winter you need a jacket as temperatures can drop below zero

Anyway that is my two cents

[stefk]

Well Sol, to say the truth, I never ever thought I could one day imagine being obliged to leave my country. Today is the first day I imagine this. Its very difficult for me, Im attached to my region, it would be a heartbreak to leave my garden, ten years work to become a real permacultural gardener, my fruit trees, my dogs, my animals, all my life is here. I am not a cosmopolitan citizen. I would prefer to fight to preserve our liberty, but I am alone. All my neighbours are brainwashed, all my coworkers are brainwashed, they trust the government, I dont want to discuss with them anymore.

Thank you for your two cents, Sol. Greece would be an option, fabulous country and people, but its also a leftist government there. Enfin, I am a little bit lost, I am going to drink a glass of a good japanese whisky.......Tomorrow will be better........

[Budge]

I'm reminded of the old joke/saying: Laugh it can't get any worse, so he did and it did!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/unca ... rk-future/

[Triplethought]

Now surprise surprise, very high on the list is Turkey. They are signs now everywhere for citizenship and on the Mediterranean side, it is almost a dream come true, the cost of living in unbelievably low due to the plunge in the lira. Property prices have dropped so you can get something beautiful for a fraction if its cost. They love foreigners especially in the coastal towns, like Marmaris, Antalya, etc. Marmaris is 50 minutes away from Greece by High-speed ferry. Food quality is superb. Fresh, fruit and veggies are almost free compared to Europe. And medical facilities are very good.

Greece is also another potential option and easy for you as it is a member of the EU.

In Asia, Vietnam is possibly the best option for foreigners as the cuisine is easy to adapt to and there seems to be a lot of European influence as their pastries and baked products are superb. The wines are good and incredibly cheap. Food quality is also good and it is a relatively cheap place to live if you rent. One place that is very scenic and the temperature akin to Europe is Dalat, also known as little Paris. It is extremely beautiful and in the winter you need a jacket as temperatures can drop below zero

Anyway that is my two cents

Turkey is interesting but I'm not sure I trust the "rule of law" given a strongman is in place. My thought would be to rent rather than buy. You have me intrigued about Dalat Vietnam for retirement My last cruise stopped in Ho Chi Minh and I didn't care for it that much. But I was burned out after 3 weeks of traveling and we had just left Cambodia so Ho Chi Minh was at least a step up. Ho Chi Minh is where Steve Wozniak (who was on the boat with us) says he got Covid. (remember the news story where he claimed he might have been U.S. patient zero?)

[Yodean]

In Asia, Vietnam is possibly the best option for foreigners as the cuisine is easy to adapt to and there seems to be a lot of European influence as their pastries and baked products are superb. The wines are good and incredibly cheap. Food quality is also good and it is a relatively cheap place to live if you rent. One place that is very scenic and the temperature akin to Europe is Dalat, also known as little Paris.

In the long-term, especially with its demographics, Vietnam looks good.

In the short-term, Vietnam is a bit cuckoo, too:

In 2020, Vietnam reported fewer than 1,500 Covid cases and 35 deaths. In a March 2021 article, a group of academics - inevitably supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation - bragged that Vietnam’s early lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing program deserved the credit.

Just how aggressive? Vietnam detained 4.3 million people in centralized quarantine centers in 2020, and quarantined another 6 million at home.

It also closed its borders to nearly all international travel and created an phone app that includes “allows users to declare their own health status, report suspected cases, and watch real-time movement of people placed under quarantine.”

In other words, an automated snitching program that would have made Orwell proud.

You also may not be surprised to hear that Vietnam cracked down on “misinformation” about Covid, too. “The government was on the lookout for misinformation from the very beginning… [and has] a specific decree outlining fines for people who use social media to ‘share false, untruthful, distorted, or slanderous information.’”

https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/insanity-in-vietnam

@Sol: are you currently traveling? Where are you? I didn't see you or YY in any of the numerous NYC protest video clips making its way through the independent media outlets.

[SOL]

Turkey is interesting but I'm not sure I trust the "rule of law" given a strongman is in place. My thought would be to rent rather than buy. You have me intrigued about Dalat Vietnam for retirement My last cruise stopped in Ho Chi Minh and I didn't care for it that much. But I was burned out after 3 weeks of traveling and we had just left Cambodia so Ho Chi Minh was at least a step up. Ho Chi Minh is where Steve Wozniak (who was on the boat with us) says he got Covid. (remember the news story where he claimed he might have been U.S. patient zero?)

Renting is generally the way to go but real estate prices are so low that from a contrarian angle it is a good time to buy. As for Rule of Law, you really look at it we have Gestapo agents in place in the USA. You can't call the US a republic or democracy anymore, it's more like a bunch of gangsters pretending to follow the rule of law.

We are reaching a time where places ruled by strongmen like Erdogan, Putin, CCP will become better than most western nations. These places are slowly moving towards freedom, while the West is rapidly degrading and becoming a totalitarian state.

Marmaris

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFFLqL7GB08


Dalat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoagJ5vSwXA


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqYZY83fRTc


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd7TO55g_DM

[SOL]

Well Sol, to say the truth, I never ever thought I could one day imagine being obliged to leave my country. Today is the first day I imagine this. Its very difficult for me, Im attached to my region, it would be a heartbreak to leave my garden, ten years work to become a real permacultural gardener, my fruit trees, my dogs, my animals, all my life is here. I am not a cosmopolitan citizen. I would prefer to fight to preserve our liberty, but I am alone. All my neighbours are brainwashed, all my coworkers are brainwashed, they trust the government, I dont want to discuss with them anymore.

Thank you for your two cents, Sol. Greece would be an option, fabulous country and people, but its also a leftist government there. Enfin, I am a little bit lost, I am going to drink a glass of a good japanese whisky.......Tomorrow will be better........

I know how you feel. I never thought I would leave NY but things changed so much, it was like I was an alien there. However, remember the old saying what does not kill you only makes you stronger. If you go to the right places you can build your garden again and hire cheap labour to do the job for you. In Greece it could be cheap and even cheaper in Turkey and even less in many parts of Asia. I would have mentioned Cambodia to you as there are many Frenchmen there but I found it to be a dump. Dalat on the other hand is has many European Elements and the food and weather are fantastic

Here is a view of the Island of Rhodes or as some people call it Rhodos. There is a nice old bazaar there where the 1000-year-old walls still stand. What a fantastic place to be in. The feeling is superb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1K-mBDEs_A

This is a very detailed overview of Rhodes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKMfitf0Y2k

Another great place is Ikaria which is famous for the number of centenarians it has. One in three live past 90 years old. The food will make your mouth water
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2t2AWaRo1g

[scremonini]

I have been accumulating a large portion of my portfolio on Chinese tech sector.
The beaten seems to never end however.
Has anyone else also exposed and starting to wonder when the curse will reverse?
Perhaps the CCP and the regulators in USA don't have any interest to facilitate a favourable environment for Chinese Tech. Will we ever see BABA above USD 300 again?
Personally I am still very hopeful considering good fundamentals and growth market trajectory, but I would welcome other people's view as there hasn't been said much on the topic lately.

[Yodean]

Will we ever see BABA above USD 300 again?
Personally I am still very hopeful considering good fundamentals and growth market trajectory, but I would welcome other people's view as there hasn't been said much on the topic lately.

For me personally, my Chinese allocation is a strategic one, not a tactical one. I have fairly large allocations to Chinese Amazon (BABA), Chinese Skynet (TCEHY), and Chinese Baby Skynet (BIDU), as well as Chinese Dow (FXI). Been buying the dips all the way down to present levels, first in large lots, now small ones.

It may take 3 to 5 years to see massive profits. I am not too worried. No point in selling now, lol.

However, if Mr. Jack Ma fails to make a public appearance at least once a year (i.e. he gets assassinated), then I will immediately start selling some BABA on every rally ...