Interim Market Update Aug 22, 2021

[SOL]

The next update will be sent out within the next 24 hours.

Strange developments are taking place
The bullish sentiment continues to trend below its historical average
Neutral readings appear to be trending upwards

Our Rage Index surged to New highs and the GP Index appears poised to make a move. If the GP index surges to new highs it would indicate/suggest that a short term top is in the works which will ultimately prove to be a long term buying opportunity.

This market is certainly living up to the title we gave it "the market of disorder". It continues to confound everyone that is relying on old metrics.

[Centeron631]

Sol seems that AVT is entered twice contradicting each other - which one should we use if i see correctly?

[SOL]

Sol seems that AVT is entered twice contradicting each other - which one should we use if i see correctly?

We will send an interim update over the next 48 hours to address that issue, maybe sooner. In the interim do this because these are the instructions the Update will contain

Sell first half in the 43 to 45 ranges and 2nd half at 46.10 to 50.25. This way we put both sets of instructions to use

[SOL]

The Fed is already hinting and its probably more than a hint, that they have found another reason to keep the printing press running at full steam

Delta variant, having put kibosh on Fed event, begins to menace recovery

The setback, announced late Friday, with the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium now virtual for the second straight year, is the latest in a series of small but accumulating signs the new surge is having more of an impact than Fed officials anticipated. Chair Jerome Powell was already scheduled to deliver his keynote speech on Friday by webcast.

It comes at a critical time as the U.S. central bank considers when to start shrinking its extraordinary support for the economy. Most policymakers had been keen to begin reducing the Fed's asset-purchase program by the end of this year, according to the minutes of the July 27-28 policy meeting.

Until now, Powell has downplayed the impact of Delta. People and businesses had learned to "live their lives, despite COVID," he said, indicating the central bank's outlook for an improving economy remained intact despite the resurgence in cases and uneven vaccination rates.

"People and businesses have improvised and learned to adapt," Powell said in an Aug. 17 webcast event with teachers and students. U.S. economic growth surpassed pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter and is likely to be revised higher later this week.

That confidence could now be mislaid with the quickly evolving situation causing a dashboard of indicators to flash some potential warning signs.

HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA FALTERS

Nearly all of the recovery measures for individual U.S. states tracked by Oxford Economics fell for the latest week available. States in the South saw the sharpest drops, led by Louisiana, Florida, and Mississipp

i.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-va ... 55603.html

Now the press will be all over the COVID is exploding story and how the economy could sink and anything they can throw in there to increase the panic factor. And what for, well to print more money.

[Centeron631]

Sol used these words in this MU update: "the Nasdaq is already in correction mode as trending below primary trend lines "
I am interpreting these words that it is time to sell off some or a lot of my tech stocks which are mainly etf's 1.shorter term hold intention from another source and 2.some longer term intention from yet another source which i assumed were part of my core and invested into in big $'s with big gains in 50% range.

Now i had the guts to pull the trigger on 1. which included 2 of ARK with about 30% gain but not huge $ invested and 2 others that also not huge amts invested which attract about 10k actual taxes this year.

Now do i interpret the above words of Sol to crack off the #2. sets of very large $ invested. One concern i will have to pay 25% actual taxes on about half in value of the stocks say 18K in taxes in a taxable account but a similar amount of gain in my Registered retirement fund but not have to pay taxes until death. The other concern is giving up on etf's that I thought of as core. These are in 2 etf's QQQ and 2 of XLK one set in each account ( xlk probably my best performer of last 1.3 years).

Is this the interpretation a proper interpretation of Sol's words? If yes would u pull the trigger on these larger holdings? thks (hope Sol chimes in )

[SOL]

Sol used these words in this MU update: "the Nasdaq is already in correction mode as trending below primary trend lines "
I am interpreting these words that it is time to sell off some or a lot of my tech stocks which are mainly etf's 1.shorter term hold intention from another source and 2.some longer term intention from yet another source which i assumed were part of my core and invested into in big $'s with big gains in 50% range.

Now i had the guts to pull the trigger on 1. which included 2 of ARK with about 30% gain but not huge $ invested and 2 others that also not huge amts invested which attract about 10k actual taxes this year.

Now do i interpret the above words of Sol to crack off the #2. sets of very large $ invested. One concern i will have to pay 25% actual taxes on about half in value of the stocks say 18K in taxes in a taxable account but a similar amount of gain in my Registered retirement fund but not have to pay taxes until death. The other concern is giving up on etf's that I thought of as core. These are in 2 etf's QQQ and 2 of XLK one set in each account ( xlk probably my best performer of last 1.3 years).

Is this the interpretation a proper interpretation of Sol's words? If yes would u pull the trigger on these larger holdings? thks (hope Sol chimes in )

It was meant to imply that if the above hypothesis is true as in the Nasdaq being in a "correction mode", then it would give value to the argument that the markets are experiencing a silent correction. It was not meant to be taken as a signal to panic but more as a sign that if and when the market experiences a correction, the correction will not be as strong as many are predicting. As you know markets can remain irrational for much longer than most bears can remain solvent.

Having said that we are erring on the side of caution and have issued exit targets on several of our positions.

[Triplethought]

It was meant to imply that if the above hypothesis is true as in the Nasdaq being in a "correction mode", then it would give value to the argument that the markets are experiencing a silent correction. It was not meant to be taken as a signal to panic but more as a sign that if and when the market experiences a correction, the correction will not be as strong as many are predicting. As you know markets can remain irrational for much longer than most bears can remain solvent.

Having said that we are erring on the side of caution and have issued exit targets on several of our positions.

Thank you Sol for continuing to monitor and answer these questions. It really helps to have guidance and I'd rather liquidate a few positions a little early and be ready. We all know that no one has a crystal ball but it helps to know you have crystal balls.

[DrSven]

SOL: "Having said that we are erring on the side of caution and have issued exit targets on several of our positions."

Is it likely that those of our positions will reach there exit targets before a potential correction? Or what is the intention behind it?
If NASDAQ or the whole market is perhaps already in a correction, a silent one, would it still make sense to exit early and raise the cash position?

[AstuteShift]

SOL: "Having said that we are erring on the side of caution and have issued exit targets on several of our positions."

Is it likely that those of our positions will reach there exit targets before a potential correction? Or what is the intention behind it?
If NASDAQ or the whole market is perhaps already in a correction, a silent one, would it still make sense to exit early and raise the cash position?

I wouldn’t worry too much, remember, every dip is a buying opportunity. Some positions will likely be closed out in the nick of time and others will give other members a chance to jump in.

Forget timing bottoms or worrying, as long as the trend is positive , then our profit potential will always be in our favor

For me personally, if a big correction happens, I will celebrate just like the corona crash.

[DrSven]

I am just trying to find the right balance in terms of cash position, i.e. to have max cash available in case of correction without having too much cash drag on the overall performance.

I know timing does not work - but it is still a pity

[SOL]

I am just trying to find the right balance in terms of cash position, i.e. to have max cash available in case of correction without having too much cash drag on the overall performance.

I know timing does not work - but it is still a pity

Germany has many great scientists and philosophers. When it comes to your job, think logically like a scientist. When it comes to the markets, think more like Nietzsche

However, if the markets could be timed everyone would do it and then timing would go out of the window. Something only works because a select few know the secret. So here is an open secret that no one embraces because they have been brainwashed to think that the experts know more. Fear in the markets equates to opportunity

Secondly, no one has ever gone broke if they are making money. In time you will learn to feel rather than just force your hand at trying to determine what is the optimum cash level to have.

One of my favourite quotes by Nietzsche

Whatever does not kill him makes him stronger."

This is also very revealing and can be applied to investing

“THE POINTER TO THE RIGHT PATH WAS GIVEN TO ME BY THE QUESTION: WHAT DO THE TERMS COINED FOR ‘GOOD’ IN THE VARIOUS LANGUAGES ACTUALLY MEAN FROM AN ETYMOLOGICAL VIEWPOINT? HERE I FOUND THAT THEY ALL LEAD BACK TO THE SAME CONCEPTUAL TRANSFORMATION – THAT EVERYWHERE THE BASIC CONCEPT IS ‘NOBLE,’ ‘ARISTOCRATIC’ IN THE SENSE RELATED TO THE ESTATES, OUT OF WHICH ‘GOOD’ IN THE SENSE OF ‘NOBLE OF SOUL,’ ‘HIGH-NATURED OF SOUL,’ ‘PRIVILEGED OF SOUL’ NECESSARILY DEVELOPS: A DEVELOPMENT THAT ALWAYS RUNS PARALLEL TO THAT OTHER ONE WHICH MAKES ‘COMMON,’ ‘VULGAR,’ ‘BASE’ PASS OVER FINALLY INTO THE CONCEPT ‘BAD.’ THE MOST ELOQUENT EXAMPLE OF THE LATTER IS THE GERMAN WORD ‘SCHLECHT’ ITSELF: WHICH IS IDENTICAL WITH ‘SCHLICHT’ – COMPARE ‘SCHLECHTWEG,’ ‘SCHLECHTERDINGS’ – AND ORIGINALLY DESIGNATED THE PLAIN, THE COMMON MAN, AS YET WITHOUT A SUSPECTING SIDEWARD GLANCE, SIMPLY IN OPPOSITION TO THE NOBLE ONE” (I:4)

[Centeron631]

Astute wrote "Forget timing bottoms or worrying, as long as the trend is positive , then our profit potential will always be in our favor
For me personally, if a big correction happens, I will celebrate just like the corona crash."

to Astute et al: when the underlined words are used im always left a bit wondering when if one is talking about the lines on a particular stock, the MP or certain parts thereof, or the Markets as a whole or the particular Market ie Nasdaq or Djia or a particular sector. Also the words sentiment is bullish or bearish with regards to these and the difference between trend and sentiment. I take it were not talking at all about the economy. IMO If words can be taken several ways then ofcourse more particular context with them would help and if im having lunch and there is but one meaning then ofcourse then all im saying is irrelevant.
Also during ur celebration time does that mean that at that time the trend is negative in all aspects?

[AstuteShift]

Major indices in general

Plot the trend of Dow Jones since it’s inception and it’s been nothing but straight up

Another is the FED diluting the currency, markets love that.

The economy is essentially dead since 1913, the FED has made sure of that. In the old days, the FED had more restraint to give the illusion of free markets but now due to the bug, they have unleashed their cannons and MP at full force.

Of course sentiment of bulls, bears and neutrals are important.

In history, bull markets always end on a euphoria, masses super insane drunk on joy. Also every crash leads to another bull market, no bear consistently in history makes money in the long run

When I celebrate, it’s because the masses have donated their stocks to me and also I’m riding with the top players. No hesitation, no emotion just gains

History is a great teacher, however the more I unlearn what’s proper, the more I learn to feel and perform like an artist. An artist on human emotion, behavior. Finance gurus are too stuck on old ways and lose consistently without knowing why

[SOL]

Astute wrote "Forget timing bottoms or worrying, as long as the trend is positive , then our profit potential will always be in our favor
For me personally, if a big correction happens, I will celebrate just like the corona crash."

to Astute et al: when the underlined words are used im always left a bit wondering when if one is talking about the lines on a particular stock, the MP or certain parts thereof, or the Markets as a whole or the particular Market ie Nasdaq or Djia or a particular sector. Also the words sentiment is bullish or bearish with regards to these and the difference between trend and sentiment. I take it were not talking at all about the economy. IMO If words can be taken several ways then ofcourse more particular context with them would help and if im having lunch and there is but one meaning then ofcourse then all im saying is irrelevant.
Also during ur celebration time does that mean that at that time the trend is negative in all aspects?

Another thing to remember in general is the saying when in doubt sit out. So, if you are feeling antsy then consider banking some of the profits. Short term the trend can change, but we focus on the long term trend as when you start mixing and matching one is bound to make errors.

Look back to the COVID crash, the markets bottomed when everything looked terrible. Markets are forward-looking, so they saw that the outlook would improve and trended higher.

The reason TA and fundamentals don't work well anymore is that the markets are completely controlled. The Fed is on a mission to add as much money to the system as possible. In fact, central bankers worldwide despite their wide protests have done exactly that. They are all debasing their currencies. Every year they create more debt. There is no way to pay that debt, so they keep kicking the can down the road by issuing new debt to pay off old debt. One day the masses will wake up, but everyone has been waiting for that day for decades. Given the state of affairs, we suspect that until the US debt hits 100 trillion the masses will not wake up.

Logic suggests that one should shun the markets and that has been the case for decades, but yet the Fed has stepped in and found a way to pump more money into the system to create a fake economic recovery and this will go until the masses wake up, but there are no signs that the masses are any closer to waking up.

Also as we stated volatility levels will surge as the market's trend higher, so one has to become accustomed to viewing disasters and strong pullbacks as opportunities for the Fed will continue to throw even larger sums of money to stabilise the markets. In fact, it is truly astonishing the speed at which the markets recouped their gains given the disaster COVID triggered. This indicates that the Fed has a new slogan, print baby print to deal with any disaster type event. The only way to keep the masses placated is to create the illusion of prosperity.

[AstuteShift]

https://youtu.be/rSYwtllbweY

“Got to keep on making me high”

FED theme song. Just imagine every so called “crash” as another hit of free money, the masses can’t get enough until it’s too late