Interim Market Update Aug 4, 2021

[SOL]

The next update will be sent out within 24 hours. We are just putting the final touches on it. We will also slowly be testing an idea of sending out mini-updates in between as it seems there are too many nervous nellies that assume more news is better. This is another good contrarian indicator.

In the next update, we are going to make what sounds like an insane claim, that being the market might be getting ready to rally higher. To be continued in the next issue

Bullish sentiment actually dropped to 28, roughly 11 days ago (give or take two days). This happened shortly after the Dow shed almost 1000 points. Imagine that, the market is trading at such lofty levels and bullish sentiment dropped to 28.

However no matter how bullish one is, never, ever over-allocate funds to one position, unless you are a millionaire looking to become a thousandaire

[AstuteShift]

What’s interesting is that my custom indicators the stochastics actually pull back in the weekly charts in SPX, DJI.


QQQ still in bullish territory. It’s like you said in previous updates, the Nasdaq takes charge then the other indices catch up

I’m in awe how powerful this bull is. Just a freight train

[Yodean]

What’s interesting is that my custom indicators the stochastics actually pull back in the weekly charts in SPX, DJI.

Hey YY, do you have any custom indicators specific for BTC? I know cryptos are pretty much impossible to predict with any degree of consistency, but thought I'd ask. If not, what do your general market custom indicators, when applied to BTC, say currently?

I've been working a bit, mostly for fun, on a highly experimental BTC indicator, including back-testing it somewhat (it's not too onerous, as BTC only has a 12-year history or so). So far, results are pretty good - in its current form, it's half-decent/half-assed for entry points, not that great for exit points, but overall profitable.

I haven't calculated it for today, but yesterday, it was 53%buy/47%sell. Kinda climbing its own WOW ("Wall of Worry").

[AstuteShift]

What’s interesting is that my custom indicators the stochastics actually pull back in the weekly charts in SPX, DJI.

Hey YY, do you have any custom indicators specific for BTC? I know cryptos are pretty much impossible to predict with any degree of consistency, but thought I'd ask. If not, what do your general market custom indicators, when applied to BTC, say currently?

I've been working a bit, mostly for fun, on a highly experimental BTC indicator, including back-testing it somewhat (it's not too onerous, as BTC only has a 12-year history or so). So far, results are pretty good - in its current form, it's half-decent/half-assed for entry points, not that great for exit points, but overall profitable.

I haven't calculated it for today, but yesterday, it was 53%buy/47%sell. Kinda climbing its own WOW ("Wall of Worry").

The market indicators I use I also apply to GBTC, no specific one tied to bitcoin itself

The weekly still is pretty oversold, monthly looks like it’s going to go into a cliff dive to hell

So the conclusion is that we got to see what bitcoin will do when it hits old highs.

We are in a good position to get potential profits but bitcoin loves to surprise everyone

When it comes to making your own, it’s pretty fun. The key is to spot patterns and imagining scenarios in your head, will you buy at those levels or sell at the higher end levels.

You start to understand intuitively and creativity how the market operates and also perhaps include some 4th way material in it, such as the cosmic laws into it. That 4th way book gave me several eureka moments and next thing you know I spend the whole week just tweaking and testing while listening to trance music lol.

[SOL]

While this correction appears to be strong in bitcoin, it still did not fall under the back-breaking category. So the next rally is likely to fail, though it should generate a decent amount of profit for those that are smart enough to sell when the weekly charts are overbought or when the sentiment starts to get too bullish.

This is a great market for the big players to manipulate. They make billions from each crash and then from the next run up

[Yodean]

@Sol:

In the Aug. 4th MU, you mentioned the USD likely appreciating vs. the Asian currencies, the Euro, & the Aussie dollar for up to 2 years or so. I would assume this would likely hold true for the loonie as well, especially given the likelihood of oil diving well below $50 at some point during the same time frame?

[Centeron631]

Not Getting the oversold thing on 2 charts comparison

THe chart for HA shows hi RSI and Hi MacD readings and yet the conclusion says extremely oversold.
The chart for PFGC shows low RSI and Lo MacD readings and yet the conclusion says extremely oversold.

my limited understanding that these 2 indicators determine the oversold/overbought conditions and that the lower they are the more oversold. Do they always move in Tandem? (and if not what does this indicate?) Also in the Workbook on TA the numbering scale for RSI is completely different.

[AstuteShift]

Not Getting the oversold thing on 2 charts comparison

THe chart for HA shows hi RSI and Hi MacD readings and yet the conclusion says extremely oversold.
The chart for PFGC shows low RSI and Lo MacD readings and yet the conclusion says extremely oversold.

my limited understanding that these 2 indicators determine the oversold/overbought conditions and that the lower they are the more oversold. Do they always move in Tandem? (and if not what does this indicate?) Also in the Workbook on TA the numbering scale for RSI is completely different.

SOLs indicators are customized

However if you read the books and the 4th way material, you get introduced on specific laws, numbers and cycles.

There is hints and after a while, you get to see the patterns kinda close but not quite but good enough

The key is customization and eliminating fear and greed. Patience and discipline

[Yodean]

Not Getting the oversold thing on 2 charts comparison
THe chart for HA shows hi RSI and Hi MacD readings and yet the conclusion says extremely oversold.
The chart for PFGC shows low RSI and Lo MacD readings and yet the conclusion says extremely oversold.

@Centdude:

As YY mentioned, customization is always good, whether you are talking about technical analyses (TA), various diets, exercise programs, bespoke clothing, sex robots, etc.

If you're just venturing into doing your own TA for the first time, I think it's okay to use standard settings as a starting point, but try to view the patterns/readings established in an unconventional, non-standard manner.

So even though you are using default settings, if you work at it enough, you are likely to see things that others don't, which could be useful. Then you can compare your own TA to Sol's and YY's, for example. Over time you will learn a lot.

If you are confused about the RSI and MACD stuff, you could simply look at what pattern/values of the RSI and MACD when a particular stock is trading at significant highs and lows on the monthly charts, for example, and how they got there. There's always more to learn, but that's a possible starting point.

[DrSven]

@Centeron:
As far as can tell,
HA chart shown in the update is monthly chart, description says oversold on the weekly chart (which is not shown). On the monthly chart, RSI and MACD are on their way to overbought but have still room before they reach overbought state. So description does not match the chart shown.
PFGC chart is weekly chart, description says oversold, rsi and macd show oversold in the chart shown. Description matches chart shown.

We have to pay attention not to confuse monthly and weekly charts.

[stefk]

beautiful falling channel. The price could fall and rebound on the upper trend line of the channel.

[SOL]

@Sol:

In the Aug. 4th MU, you mentioned the USD likely appreciating vs. the Asian currencies, the Euro, & the Aussie dollar for up to 2 years or so. I would assume this would likely hold true for the loonie as well, especially given the likelihood of oil diving well below $50 at some point during the same time frame?

That would be obvious so I did not mention but my bad, If the USD rallies the Loonie is definitely going to fall

[SOL]

@Centeron:
As far as can tell,
HA chart shown in the update is monthly chart, description says oversold on the weekly chart (which is not shown). On the monthly chart, RSI and MACD are on their way to overbought but have still room before they reach overbought state. So description does not match the chart shown.
PFGC chart is weekly chart, description says oversold, rsi and macd show oversold in the chart shown. Description matches chart shown.

We have to pay attention not to confuse monthly and weekly charts.

I did not put the weekly chart for HA as the monthly chart is now trading in the neutral ranges, it has plenty of time before it hits the overbought ranges and this stock will likely trade to the extremely overbought zone (MACD's 96 to 100) before topping out as it has consolidated for a long time. I mentioned the weekly charts to illustrate that there is now support from both the monthly and weekly charts for the stock to start trending upwards and as DrSven mentioned it is important to make sure you pay attention to what charts we are referencing.


It is also very important to see your pattern otherwise you will never learn anything when it comes to TA. Look at Stefk. He started off as a novice and I would say his skills now match that of a pro, yet he developed his own systems after taking notes. Another person to pay attention to is Astute, he also took the path of putting what we said into practice, Yodean is another one and there are a host of others that I can't remember that have adapted TA to meet their needs. Yes, it will be fairly hard and confusing, to begin with, but if you keep it at the confusion will clear away and you will see patterns that other's can't see and in the end that is all that matters, for you will finally have learned how to fish instead of waiting to be fed. And learning to fish is a beautiful thing let me tell you that

[Triplethought]

@Centeron:
As far as can tell,
HA chart shown in the update is monthly chart, description says oversold on the weekly chart (which is not shown). On the monthly chart, RSI and MACD are on their way to overbought but have still room before they reach overbought state. So description does not match the chart shown.
PFGC chart is weekly chart, description says oversold, rsi and macd show oversold in the chart shown. Description matches chart shown.

We have to pay attention not to confuse monthly and weekly charts.

I did not put the weekly chart for HA as the monthly chart is now trading in the neutral ranges, it has plenty of time before it hits the overbought ranges and this stock will likely trade to the extremely overbought zone (MACD's 96 to 100) before topping out as it has consolidated for a long time. I mentioned the weekly charts to illustrate that there is now support from both the monthly and weekly charts for the stock to start trending upwards and as DrSven mentioned it is important to make sure you pay attention to what charts we are referencing.


It is also very important to see your pattern otherwise you will never learn anything when it comes to TA. Look at Stefk. He started off as a novice and I would say his skills now match that of a pro, yet he developed his own systems after taking notes. Another person to pay attention to is Astute, he also took the path of putting what we said into practice, Yodean is another one and there are a host of others that I can't remember that have adapted TA to meet their needs. Yes, it will be fairly hard and confusing, to begin with, but if you keep it at the confusion will clear away and you will see patterns that other's can't see and in the end that is all that matters, for you will finally have learned how to fish instead of waiting to be fed. And learning to fish is a beautiful thing let me tell you that

Sol, It would help me greatly if your graphs were labeled. Even if this means typing free form notes on them. My algebra instructors used to say "show your work". Having unlabeled graphs makes it very hard to learn. Trust me I want to learn to fish. But knowing the date range, stock symbol, graphing tool, and having any MACDs or trend lines labeled as to parameters used would be helpful for future self sufficient fishing expeditions.

[SOL]

Sol, It would help me greatly if your graphs were labeled. Even if this means typing free form notes on them. My algebra instructors used to say "show your work". Having unlabeled graphs makes it very hard to learn. Trust me I want to learn to fish. But knowing the date range, stock symbol, graphing tool, and having any MACDs or trend lines labeled as to parameters used would be helpful for future self sufficient fishing expeditions.

Some individuals claimed that they could not tell which were monthly or weekly charts. This data was specially supplied as shown by the image below.




As for the rest, math and technical analysis are not comparable, it would be like comparing apples to oranges. Math is science, technical analysis is an art. When you talk about oscillators like MACD’s and RSI, the most important thing to learn is the concept of oversold and overbought. Once you understand that it is easy to understand extremely overbought and oversold zones. The rest is all noise, then you can attempt to customize them to suit your needs, by playing around with the settings even more.

Monthly charts each bar represents one month. If you look at the monthly chart, you will see that each year is followed by July as it shows 6 months of data on each side. The weekly charts follow a similar principle,
will see the month the sequence of the months APRIL, JULY and October in every chart. The stock symbol is posted above every chart.

The lines in purple are manually drawn, they are not done via software; they are support and resistance lines, but I don’t always put them in as they are secondary concepts and it is very rare to see two individuals who are well versed in TA agree on the exact support and resistance points.

All the other parameters you ask for would entail providing specific points which would kill the value of the Tool as everyone would start to use the same parameters. TA is not a science so it can’t be examined through the same lens. While the formulas for the oscillators are based on mathematical formulas, the patterns they create cannot be interpreted in the same way.

This is why so many so-called Technical analysis experts fail because they follow someone else's method. You don't see us using Elliot wave, or other waves or Fibonacci, GANN, etc. These three types of TA actually are more or less based on strict rules, the kind you seek, but their results as stand-alone tools are quite dismal.