Tether looks like a scam based on this Article

[George1010]

Is Tether Just a Scam to Enrich Bitcoin Investors?

Tether, the third-most widely held coin by value (Ethereum is second), is unique among its peers. In a market built largely on speculation, Tether is a stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at a 1-to-1 ratio. Tethers help provide liquidity and offer a widely recognized token that can facilitate transactions between various cryptocurrencies. In the world of crypto markets, they essentially act as a digital dollar, and they’re everywhere. On some days, Tether’s trading volume exceeds that of Bitcoin.

But the question that hounds Tether—and is the subject of an investigation by the New York attorney general’s office—is whether its most attractive quality is really just to artificially inflate the value of Bitcoin. In other words, is Tether actually a tool for cryptocurrency insiders to get rich on the market’s hottest—and highly manipulable—commodity?

While Tether claims that it mints new coins in response to need—for example, I give Tether $100,000, and it, in return, gives me 100,000 USDT, as Tethers are called—its most pointed critics argue otherwise. High-powered lawyers, jaundiced traders, rogue economists, industry whistleblowers, crypto gadflies, and several U.S. law enforcement agencies claim that Tether is part of an elaborate scam that essentially boils down to using the company’s in-house currency to buy Bitcoin, which has the intended side effect of juicing the price of Bitcoin, and to otherwise manipulate cryptocurrency markets. As a document from one lawsuit warns, “control of an exchange and the opportunity to trade with non-existent money can allow a single individual or entity to dramatically influence cryptocommodity price


Tether’s importance, and its value to the overall crypto economy, has vastly increased since then, when only a few billion Tethers were in circulation. Now there are more than 24 billion Tethers out there. In the first week of January, Tether printed more than 2 billion USDT. (It’s worth noting that it’s exceedingly hard to redeem USDT from Tether Limited for U.S. dollars; Tether requires a $100,000 minimum per transaction, along with a 0.1 percent fee.)

https://newrepublic.com/article/160905/ ... -investors

Long read but worth it

[Yodean]

My sense is that the issues with Tether have largely already been "baked into" the current price of cryptos - the crypto crowd has known about these potential problems for some time, but now it's starting to show up in more mainstream financial press. I would think this is the result, from a herd psychology perspective, of the recent "May Day" crash and negative sentiment reaching a high in the crypto space.

Tether = Ponzi scheme x 3;

BTC = Ponzi scheme x 1;

Ether = Ponzi scheme x 2;

Alt. Coins = Ponzi scheme x 13;

Central banking/fiat $$$ system = Ponzi scheme x 666;

Traditional higher education = Ponzi scheme x 0.5;

*****

The key to success with these Ponzi schemes is to get in early enough to make a profit, and leave early enough to keep the profit.

I have been swing-trading BTC and Ether since 2017 or so, and in nominal terms, they have been my best-performing asset class. At any given time, I hold anywhere from 3% to 15% of my net worth in a combination of BTC and Ether proxies (currently, it's about 12%). I don't touch alt. coins.

My current game plan, FWIW and subject to change at a moment's notice, wrt BTC is as follows:

-MOAB ("Mother of All Buy") = BTC 25k to 30k, has been triggered a few times recently; deploy several lots;

-FOAB ("Father of All Buy") = BTC 20k to 25k; deploy more lots;

-DCT ("Divine Crypto. Trigger") = BTC < 20k, sell other assets, potentially use leverage, to deploy more lots;

*****

Exit plan:

-if/when BTC hits 48k - 50k, de-risk crypto. portfolio and take minor profits by selling a bit at this range;

-if/when BTC hits 63k to 65k, take some profits;

-if/when BTC hits 80k to 100k, take more profits;

-if/when BTC hits 100k, re-assess sentiment, technical action, Wyckoff pattern, etc., and decide on the size of maintaining a small core position;

*****

I view trading cryptos as a street fight - traditional technical analyses, fundamental analyses, etc. don't work well.

Herd psychology/sentiment works extremely well in the crypto. space, from my personal experience thus far.

[jlhooter]

My sense is that the issues with Tether have largely already been "baked into" the current price of cryptos - the crypto crowd has known about these potential problems for some time, but now it's starting to show up in more mainstream financial press. I would think this is the result, from a herd psychology perspective, of the recent "May Day" crash and negative sentiment reaching a high in the crypto space.

Tether = Ponzi scheme x 3;

BTC = Ponzi scheme x 1;

Yodean I appreciate your detailed approach to this assest, not so much about BTC but your stategy. I know this is a lot of effort for you to present but I would love to understand how you arrive at these 'predictions' for price levels going in and out of this security but in general regardless of discussing BTC or any security.
I feel I have a very good understanding of the plan approach but how to determine price targets is still very difficult to me. I fully understand that what works for you does not for others and is more learning for my own style.
If this is something too much to explain or wont share I fully understand

Ether = Ponzi scheme x 2;

Alt. Coins = Ponzi scheme x 13;

Central banking/fiat $$$ system = Ponzi scheme x 666;

Traditional higher education = Ponzi scheme x 0.5;

*****

The key to success with these Ponzi schemes is to get in early enough to make a profit, and leave early enough to keep the profit.

I have been swing-trading BTC and Ether since 2017 or so, and in nominal terms, they have been my best-performing asset class. At any given time, I hold anywhere from 3% to 15% of my net worth in a combination of BTC and Ether proxies (currently, it's about 12%). I don't touch alt. coins.

My current game plan, FWIW and subject to change at a moment's notice, wrt BTC is as follows:

-MOAB ("Mother of All Buy") = BTC 25k to 30k, has been triggered a few times recently; deploy several lots;

-FOAB ("Father of All Buy") = BTC 20k to 25k; deploy more lots;

-DCT ("Divine Crypto. Trigger") = BTC < 20k, sell other assets, potentially use leverage, to deploy more lots;

*****

Exit plan:

-if/when BTC hits 48k - 50k, de-risk crypto. portfolio and take minor profits by selling a bit at this range;

-if/when BTC hits 63k to 65k, take some profits;

-if/when BTC hits 80k to 100k, take more profits;

-if/when BTC hits 100k, re-assess sentiment, technical action, Wyckoff pattern, etc., and decide on the size of maintaining a small core position;

*****

I view trading cryptos as a street fight - traditional technical analyses, fundamental analyses, etc. don't work well.

Herd psychology/sentiment works extremely well in the crypto. space, from my personal experience thus far.

[jlhooter]

Yodean I didnt go to the end of your quote before making mine so my comments are int the middle of yours

[Yodean]

Yodean I didnt go to the end of your quote before making mine so my comments are int the middle of yours

No worries.

I have a different approach towards technical analysis (TA) and sentiment analysis when it comes to the crypto. space vs. other assets.

Here's my general perspective:

-when you invest/trade in mega-cap stocks like Google and Microsoft, you're going against JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs' CTAs (computer trading algorithms), best advisors, etc. among others. Your edge will be small, if any, using classical TA tools, no matter how good you think you are. HODL'ing a portion of assets that are riding the megatrends (i.e. A.I./Tech. and asset price inflation trends in Google's and MSFT's cases) and going against herd sentiment are probably your best bets, as well as following the advice of proven successful financial advisors like Sol. Totally fine to take some profits on the way up if you so wish.

-with crypto, it's a bit different, currently; there are a lot of Snowflake and Millennial investors who have no idea what they are doing in the investing arena, let alone the crypto. space, trying to get rich fast; some are idealistic and very smart from an IQ perspective, and are starting to figure out the Ponzi scheme x 666 that is central banking/fiat $$$ system; they tend to think that DeFi and crypto. will save the world; well, they may turn out to be right, eventually, but as things currently stand, central banks, to my eyes - and from my cursory study of financial history from time immemorial - have never lost a battle of significance against the individual. I suspect this trend will continue for the time being, perhaps for the remainder of our lifetimes. When they control the big guns, write the laws, and determine what will be presented on mainstream media, they almost cannot lose.

-to me, investing is about what is, not about how I wish things could be; so I don't invest in cryptos/DeFi because I think these technologies will destroy central banking and lead to some sort of empowerment of the individual, I invest in them because as it stands currently, the crypto. space is full of young and inexperienced investors, and I know in this context, I have a significant edge when it comes to making potential profits.

-many moons ago, I was a half-decent recreational poker player, and so I'll use some poker analogies:

-you could be the the 8th best poker player in the world, but if you are sitting at a table where you are playing against the top 7 players, you are going to lose $$$;

-on the other hand, you could be the 8th worst player in the world, but if you are playing against the seven worst players in the world, you are going to make $$$;

-I am sure you know what I am getting at here.

Moving back to BTC, my current view is somewhat different than most (there's a very good thread on crypto that Sol started around the same time as this one, which I am sure you have read):

-I do not think the Fed is actually that threatened by BTC adoption; BTC does not work well as a currency or medium of exchange, for a variety of reasons, and I see BTC more as a speculative store of value; BTC is not truly a threat against the USD, just like gold is not truly a threat against the USD, at this point in time; so I don't think BTC will be destroyed by the central banks, but there will be intense and fast boom and bust cycles for BTC;

-other reasons why the Fed isn't threatened by BTC:

-BTC is actually a "Surveillance Coin" - once you transact in BTC, the U.S. government has proven by recent events that it may easily track the perpetrators of those transactions down, whenever it wants; so I see BTC as being a store of value that eventually sits alongside and is subservient to a central bank digital USD (i.e. a "FedCoin"); as has been discussed previously, BTC may be one of the ways to get Westerners used to the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which at this point, are baked in the cake;

-El Salvador, you say? To me, it's almost a non-event, in the big picture. Currently, El Salvador uses the USD as its national currency, and will add BTC in September; however, all I think this will end up doing is increasing USD liquidity (since citizens will be able to flip between USD and BTC when transacting) in El Salvador;

-BTC's birth and creation are shrouded in mystery; Satoshi Nakamoto supposedly created BTC in 2009 or so and mined the 1st million BTCs, I believe, but he has never appeared publicly or been identified as a real person; in addition, to my knowledge, his wallet with the 1st million BTCs he supposedly mined has never been opened or touched;

-now, since its birth in 2009, BTC has been the best performing asset class for the past 12 years, and BTC/blockchain has reached high levels of mass consciousness; isn't it somewhat suspicious that Satoshi has not stepped forward to claim some level of fame, or used a bit of his BTCs?

-there's a line of thought that Satoshi Nakamoto is not a real person, but rather a facade for a U.S. government financial experiment (keeping in mind BTC's birth was right around the time of the 2008/9 financial crisis) - in essence, the U.S. government/CIA came up with the original coding for BTC, then released it to a group of talented, private hackers to further improve the coding and spread it to the public;

-AstuteShift in the other crypto. thread posted a 12-minute video of E.B. Tucker talking about crypto.; in other interviews, E.B. Tucker actually hints that he supports the aforementioned theory of BTC's creation; *disclaimer: I am quite familiar with E.B.'s thoughts because I hold significant positions in two of his stocks (Metalla Royalty, Nova Royalty);

This post is getting quite long, so I'll end it here. I know you asked more specifically about how I came up with my BTC triggers, and I will detail them in the next post.

[Yodean]

@jlhooter:

I'll proceed to lay out a bit of my thinking process when it comes to BTC, and how I came up with my specific entry and exit points.

First, I never take technical analysis (TA) too seriously - to some extent TA is a bit of a scam, so I make sure that I don't fall in love with my own TA, or those of others'. It can be helpful at times, but sentiment, trends, etc. are more important.

First question I ask myself when it comes to evaluating an asset (we'll use BTC as the example henceforth): is BTC in a primary degree bull market? Imo, it is.

Second question: are there any underlying trends that should support BTC in the months/years ahead? Once again, I would say yes - you've got the digitalization of $$$ trend, everything moving online trend, network effects of BTC, first-mover advantage of BTC in the crypto space, etc.

Third question: what is current sentiment? I use a specific crypto. "fear and greed" index, and currently it's in the "extreme fear" range. Also, although I avoid reading mainstream media as much as I can (it poisons your mind), I scan headlines to assess sentiment as well - currently, there is a lot of negative press about BTC and crypto. on mainstream media sites. You can also scan the comments of general financial forums/chat groups (like this one) to help gauge sentiment as well.

I consider these first three questions more important than TA when it comes to assessing assets. TA may be helpful after this, to assess overbought/oversold states, etc.

In BTC's case:

-BTC trades 24/7 globally, and is highly volatile, so imo these qualities generally make TA less accurate/effective; something to keep in mind;

-there are two main camps when it comes to interpreting BTC's current pattern on the 1-year daily charts:

Camp #1: BTC is in the process of completing the right shoulder of a giant head-and shoulders pattern; if this pattern completes and the neckline is broken to the downside, BTC at 8k - 12k becomes a possibility;

Camp #2: BTC is in the accumulation phase of a Wyckoff variant pattern; if this is true, there is extremely robust support in the 25k to 30k range, which may represent a bottom, and a tremendous buying opportunity;

I happen to belong to Camp #2 - sentiment is extremely negative in the crypto. space currently, so short of a general market crash which brings everything down with it (i.e. liquidity squeeze), I view the Camp #1 scenario as less likely.

More TA considerations for BTC:

-open futures gap between 24k and 26.5k, which may get filled (for me, this is the worst case scenario in the short-term for BTC); my personal FOAB;

-open futures gap between 46.7k and 49.1k which may get filled (for me, this is the most likely scenario in the short-term, which is why it represents a range where I will take some profits and de-risk my crypto. portfolio a bit);

-BTC's high this year was around 64.9k, so I often like to take some profits (or start implementing some mental trailing stops) around all-time highs;

-if/when 65k is broken definitively to the upside, anything becomes possible; I believe at this point TA becomes almost useless (especially if BTC breaks 80k), so I will be relying more on sentiment analysis, etc.

-100k will represent a level of tremendous psychological resistance, so I expect several tests of this level before it is definitively broken . . . assuming we get there;

[jlhooter]

Yodean that was fantastic and thanks for your time on all posts. I will definitely have more comments for you but want to absorb your comments deeper.

I love that you dove into your general approach to plays which is very helpful. I am cautious with BTC but interested with it and will approach in chucks like you explained (not necessarily following you exactly but what works for me of course). I am much more curious to your investment strategy overall; thanks for the lesson.

I like how you describe TA as a tool but not used in all cases (you cant build a house with only a hammer).

I appreciate the MP and sentiment approach by you, this forum and definitely Sol. It is really cool to play the observer when talking to others about the market; it is a fun game to play.

I like how you say you are in camp 2 but you position youself for all camps where possible.

Thanks again and I hope to have more comments

[Yodean]

CNBC Quarterly Survey reveals bearish Bitcoin sentiment:

According to the regular host Andrew Ross Sorkin, 44 percent reckon that the flagship cryptocurrency will be flat during the rest of 2021 and will sink below this level by the end of the year.

25 percent of respondents believe Bitcoin will hit $40,000 by the time 2021 will finish.

25 percent voted for $50,000 and only 6 percent chose $60,000, according to the results of the survey.

Sorkin himself believes that by the end of the year, BTC will be trading below the $30,000 level but it will be above $30,000 long-term, he bets.

https://u.today/bitcoin-to-go-under-300 ... -tell-cnbc

*****

An example of a news item potentially of some value in assessing BTC sentiment.

[Yodean]

A new survey of institutional investors and wealth managers from the US, UK, France, Germany, and the UAE who currently have exposure to cryptocurrencies and digital assets, reveals that 82 per cent expect to increase their exposure between now and 2023.

Anatoly Crachilov, co-Founder and CEO of Nickel Digital, says: “The number of institutional investors and corporates holding bitcoin and other cryptoassets is growing and their confidence in the asset class is also increasing. Our analysis at the start of June this year revealed that 19 listed companies with a market cap of over USD 1 trillion had around USD 6.5 billion invested in Bitcoin, having originally spent USD 4.3 billion buying the cryptocurrency. We also found a staggering USD 43.2 billion worth of bitcoin is held through various bitcoin closed-ended trusts and exchange traded products.

“Many of those professional investors with holdings in cryptoassets are looking to increase their exposure and this is being driven by several factors including strong market performance during the Covid-19 crisis, more established investors and corporations endorsing the market, and the sector’s infrastructure and regulatory framework improving. These trends will continue to expand.”

https://www.institutionalassetmanager.c ... currencies

[Yodean]

Billion-dollar investment firm Rothschild Investment Corp quadrupled its exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) since April, new records show.

In a filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Saturday, Rothschild confirmed that it now owns 141,405 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

A quiet but nonetheless substantial player among institutions, Rothchild Investment Corp has also invested in Grayscale’s Ether (ETH) equivalent, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

Its exposure to Bitcoin has increased considerably this year, the filing shows — in April, its GBTC shares totaled 38,346.

In BTC terms, with each GBTC share equal to 0.000939767 BTC, Rothschild thus has an equivalent Bitcoin exposure of 132.8 BTC ($3.94 million).

The data implies that declining prices have not fazed executives, while Bitcoin has been maintaining a drawdown for three months after hitting its all-time highs of $64,500 in mid May.

As Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein noted this week, institutional players are likely taking little notice of short-term price moves, instead concentrating on a much lower-time-preference strategy when it comes to cryptocurrency.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/rothschi ... ince-april

Pocket change to this Quiet Shark, but it looks like the Big Boys are starting to move into crypto . . .

[AstuteShift]

Billion-dollar investment firm Rothschild Investment Corp quadrupled its exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) since April, new records show.

In a filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Saturday, Rothschild confirmed that it now owns 141,405 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

A quiet but nonetheless substantial player among institutions, Rothchild Investment Corp has also invested in Grayscale’s Ether (ETH) equivalent, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

Its exposure to Bitcoin has increased considerably this year, the filing shows — in April, its GBTC shares totaled 38,346.

In BTC terms, with each GBTC share equal to 0.000939767 BTC, Rothschild thus has an equivalent Bitcoin exposure of 132.8 BTC ($3.94 million).

The data implies that declining prices have not fazed executives, while Bitcoin has been maintaining a drawdown for three months after hitting its all-time highs of $64,500 in mid May.

As Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein noted this week, institutional players are likely taking little notice of short-term price moves, instead concentrating on a much lower-time-preference strategy when it comes to cryptocurrency.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/rothschi ... ince-april

Pocket change to this Quiet Shark, but it looks like the Big Boys are starting to move into crypto . . .

The top players making the move right when the masses are crying in despair

[Yodean]

The top players making the move right when the masses are crying in despair

FWIW, this index of herd sentiment wrt crypto rarely reaches below 20. The technical pattern in conjunction with horde mood, to my eyes, makes for a high quality set-up for accumulation of BTC.

With that said, not a small number of crypto analysts are calling for at least one more spike down to the 24k to 25k area (open futures gap). But if many people see this, it's probably not going happen, I would think.

Either way, cryptos tend to move real fast, so we'll find out soon enough ...

[AstuteShift]

It all depends on the weekly chart for bitcoin. However having Rothschild validate your trade is a good sign also

Also Jim Cramer selling hits bitcoin

[Yodean]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s prime brokerage division is clearing and settling cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) for some of its European hedge fund clients, Coindesk reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. lender in March restarted its cryptocurrency desk amid growing interest by institutions in bitcoin, and said it was looking at ways to cater to a surge in demand to own and invest in the most popular cryptocurrency.

Goldman Sachs is one of several mainstream financial firms that has dived into the crypto space, despite wild price swings and widening regulatory crackdown on the digital assets.

Rival banks Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co have also started giving clients access to crypto funds, according to media reports.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-23/G ... ndesk.html

[SOL]

Bitcoin is trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the weekly charts (more like insanely oversold) so from that angle, it makes sense to take a bite. The other reasons as far as I am concerned are just gravy.

From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin might rally halfway to its old highs and then possibly mount an even stronger correction. Too early to tell right now.