The Fed is hinting about the Demise of Cryptos

[SOL]

Disruption in Tether’s Value Could Be Crypto Equivalent of ‘Breaking the Buck’: Former CFTC Chairman


In an opinion piece for Bloomberg published Monday, Massad compared the hypothetical occurrence of tether’s value falling below $1 with the Reserve Primary Fund “breaking the buck” in September 2008, the day after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The net asset value (NAV) of the $65 billion fund, which held Lehman commercial paper among its assets, fell below $1 a share, causing demand for withdrawals to escalate and prompting a run on money market funds in general.

Tether recently disclosed that only around 10% of its assets were in cash, reverse repo notes and Treasury bills as of March 31. With the majority of tether’s backing not being in the form of fiat currency, Massad said holders of USDT are “on notice that they may have trouble getting back $1 for each token.”

The question then is whether Tether would be able to withstand a sudden wave of withdrawals and what its effect would be on the wider crypto ecosystem. A JPMorgan research note recently stated that a loss in confidence in tether “would likely generate a severe liquidity shock” to bitcoin markets, given that 50%-60% of all BTC trades are for USDT.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disrupti ... 21118.html

So if the crypto crowd is pushed into a stampede then Tether has only 10% in cash to cover a run. The FED must be waiting for the right moment to act. For then once things go sour, they can attack all cryptos by saying they don't want the same thing to happen to poor investors. As these are essentially shadowy banks the Fed won't have to bail them out, so all those investors will be left to roast.

Hence we would be looking at using the next rally to lighten up on our position and then keep bailing out as the BTC rallies. There is no way under any scenario that the Fed is going to let cryptos take over the banking system. And lets not forget about the Quantum Computing threat

[AstuteShift]

After analyzing the crypto crowd for quite some time, since 2018 until now, my conclusion is that they are nut cases

Many of them are spoiled by the great gains and stand by the concept of hodling instead of cashing the gains. Greed is super out of control here

Another is insane price targets. Bastardizing technical analysis and creating faulty price targets to suit their bias and premise.

Another is manipulating crowds into believing it’s the greatest thing. In reality, it’s just fiat

I have done some debates with the masses in this space and they honestly can’t see cryptos do anything but go up in price with no government intervention. A classic example of the mass mindset just wired to lose and another example of a Good Samaritan is a dead one, luckily I escaped here

All of them hate the FED and considers themself smarter than the FED which is pretty amusing. Eventually the FED will destroy this space and the crypto junkies will be left with nothing

[AstuteShift]

https://youtu.be/K7oPCDTAODU

This is a good video on the crypto state of affairs

[Tactical Bob]

Your post seems to be a rather severe contradiction or reversal from some of your more recent posts vis-a-vis
GBTC. What do you really think?

[symbios]

On the topic of USDT, it’s very popular in Asia. You can use it to trade for all the popular cryptos and this is probably working for it and against it at the same time. Too much money came into USDT within a short amount of time and Tether (Hong Kong company) couldn’t keep up. Anyway, I’m wary of USDT and try my best not to hold it. If it goes down, a lot of exchanges might go down with it. Something interesting is I believe 70% or more exchanges are in Asia or used to be Chinese companies. This probably explains the high adoption of USDT considering the roots of Tether. USDC on the other hand, backed by US companies, is transparent and audited on a monthly basis. The trust level for USDC is much higher but not all cryptos trade against it.

On the topic of crypto, I seriously implore everyone to look further into the technology and changes it is introducing beyond Bitcoin. This space is currently unregulated, has lots of scams, rug pulls and bad actors etc. However, there are gems in them as well. Decentralized exchanges for example, are non-custodial, they don’t hold your coins. They also don’t sell order flows to other participants. Sure, they have their own issues but they started just 3 years ago. Give it time to sort things out. There are many cryptos which have valid business cases, examples like replacing SWIFT transfer with a cheaper, faster solution, building the infrastructure for sending 8k or VR videos, building a next generation platform for cloud computing which are not dominated by AWS, GCP, Azure etc. I’m a tech guy so I generally look at the technology and get excited about the changes it’s bringing. Sure I agree that AI and Quantum Computing will change everything but my take is they gonna take some time, hopefully within my lifetime.. and I don’t want to underestimate the ability of crypto to adapt. Ethereum for example, started as a proof of work blockchain is switching to a proof of stake blockchain. NFT is getting adoption across almost all major blockchains. Something no one thought about 5 years ago can be added. Crypto is just code, not set in stone, can add new features, can be rewritten from scratch to be quantum computing compatible/resistant..

There will be many people who are looking at crypto space with greed because it is indeed a new and explosive space but there’s no need to think that everyone in it are nuts. I’m cautiously optimistic about it. Most will fail, some will survive. Don’t write them off yet. We should observe and learn more and hopefully be able to jump into some opportunities (and jump out in time… )

[AstuteShift]

Your post seems to be a rather severe contradiction or reversal from some of your more recent posts vis-a-vis
GBTC. What do you really think?

Short term, a good trade to take based on weekly time scale. It’s a high risk play however. It’s a good bet to take since the risk to reward is on the good side. Also sentiment is grim. All it takes is one tweet or pump noise and a rally could occur, or not. A good trade doesn’t always mean a good investment or good future prospects

Long term? Not a great landscape eventually all craze and hype dies. The FED is using this space to Pavlov condition people to accept a FED coin and their own blockchain. Then they can track everything you do and even limit you based on your activity, if they deem you did something they didn’t favor or like

Then once the project is complete, then watch the war that will take place on the crypto space

Another is taking SOLs targets and you can play both sides.

If bitcoin reaches upwards to 121k to 140k, then you can buy puts, if the sentiment reaches to euphoric levels and indicators are extremely overbought.

Also you can buy calls on the way up as well. The service and exchange I use is called ledgerx.

Many ways to skin a cat and you can play both sides

[Budge]

Why the PTB want cryptos/blockchain. It's all about control:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/worl ... -unwashed/

[Yodean]

Some crypto "odds and ends" in terms of recent events:

Circle, a payments infrastructure company which also focuses on stablecoin development, announced its plan to go public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The company is set to merge with blank-check company Concord Acquisition Corp. in a deal valued at $4.5 billion and is expected to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker "CRCL." Circle is the principal developer of the USD Coin (USDC), the second largest stablecoin after Tether (USDT), and is backed by Goldman Sachs, Fidelity Management, and Adage Capital Management.

The Banque de France (BdF) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore partnered to test a cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC) transaction using a permissioned version of Ethereum called Quorum, which is developed by JPMorgan. This marked the first use of a smart contract-based, automated liquidity pool for the digital EUR/SGD currency pair. After the experiment, the BdF stated that the automated liquidity pool and market-making service for EUR/SGD currency pairs could be scaled up to support participation of multiple central and commercial banks in different jurisdictions.

Square Inc. announced that the company is working on building a Bitcoin hardware wallet and service to make Bitcoin custody more mainstream. Although the project is in still in its early stages, the U.S. based financial services firm will continue to take input from stakeholders as it tries to bring a mobile-friendly, "assisted-self-custody" wallet to a global audience. Square's foray into Bitcoin custody could increase attention and investment into the industry.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021 ... anies.html

*****

Bit by bit, the Sharks, a.k.a. the Big Boys (BBs, banksters) are getting their hands on the freshly baked "crypto-cake." As a Special Sardine (SS), I will be swimming quietly in their wake and accumulating the leftovers.

[Yodean]

Sources that choose to remain anonymous have reported that Bitcoin futures trading is live for a selective group of clients of Bank of America, the second-largest bank in the US.

Despite the regulatory uncertainty, investment banks have plans to allow clients to invest in cryptocurrency products. Goldman Sachs has recently confirmed the relaunch of its crypto trading desk after a three-year wait.

The CME Group launched its Bitcoin futures trading in 2017. Since then the platform has noted an increase in investment and active participation from institutions.

It is highly likely that Bank of America will be joined by other banks and investment banks that offer crypto products to clients across the US. It’s interesting to see that the American multinational investment bank blocked its clients from trading in crypto-related products in 2018 and now it has reversed its stance on crypto.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrenci ... 2107161413

A nascent trend, perhaps.

[Budge]

Cryptocurrency trading available at Interactive Brokers: BTC, BCH, ETH and LTC.

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=49513

[Yodean]

2B4CH, a Swiss non-profit think tank assisting the state in exploring cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and blockchain technology, is launching an initiative that could make Bitcoin one of the country’s reserve assets.

If the vote is successful, the Swiss National Bank, or SNB, will need to learn how to add Bitcoin into its reserves, holding it the “best and safest way,” which would make Switzerland one of the world’s leading nations in the industry and benefit its economy on many levels, Bennaim stated, adding:

“Such an addition to the constitution would affect people in Switzerland in a similar way the Silicon Valley and the London Stock Exchange have benefited the people of their respective countries.”

Switzerland has emerged as one of the most crypto-friendly countries around the world, with the canton of Zug piloting Bitcoin payments for public services back in 2016. Last month, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority approved the country’s first crypto fund after authorizing the SIX Swiss Exchange to launch a digital asset marketplace.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/swiss-th ... nstitution

[Yodean]

Binance Smart Chain, a unit of crypto exchange Binance, said on Tuesday it had launched a $1 billion fund to help fast-track adoption of digital assets and blockchain technology.

A total of $500 million from the fund will be reserved for investments to help grow decentralized computing, gaming, metaverse, virtual reality, artificial intelligence and blockchain-based financial services, BSC said.

Of the remainder $300 million will be earmarked for a builder program and $100 million each for liquidity incentives and talent development.

"With the $1 billion initiative, our focus will be widened to building cross-chain and multi-chain infrastructures integrated with different types of blockchains," Gwendolyn Regina, investment director of BSC Accelerator Fund said in a statement.

BSC has over one million daily active users spread across more than 900 decentralized applications, making it one of the biggest crypto ecosystems.

[Yodean]

The United States has overtaken China to account for the largest share of the world's bitcoin mining, data published on Wednesday by the UK's Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance showed.

Chinese authorities banned the activity earlier this year causing miners to shut up shop or move overseas.

China's share of the power of computers connected to the global bitcoin network, known as the "hash rate", fell to zero by July from 44% in May, the data showed.

The United States now accounts for the largest share of mining, some 35.4% of the global hash rate as of end-August, followed by Kazakhstan and Russia, the data showed.

*****

My current favourite BTC "conspiracy theory" is that there is no Satoshi Nakamoto. Just like the government (DARPA) (https://usg.edu/galileo/skills/unit07/i ... 7_02.phtml) invented the internet, this theory is that the initial development of blockchain was a DARPA-CIA created project in its rudimentary form, which was then given to a small group of extremely talented programmers/hackers to further develop, following the financial crisis of 2008 - 9.

Satoshi's identity has never been confirmed. He supposedly mined the first million BTCs, but these have never exchanged wallets. These one million BTCs are likely in the hands of the U.S. 3-letter agencies.

The U.S. government may easily track those who use BTC - forever, on its immutable ledger (until QC is further developed, likely > 10 years away).

BTC also serves as a speculative store of value, into which further money flows will occur, as well as serving as collateral for more debt-money creation (i.e. pumping more $$$ into the financial system).

It is really no threat to the USD in its current form, and may even further enhance USD hegemony in weak countries, where BTC will stand beside the USD as two of the more safer stores of value. The Euro is almost dead, and the approaching digital yuan CBDC is unproven.

The U.S. government may crush BTC at any time (and by extension most of the alt. coins), at its discretion - it has mainstream media control, as well as the first million BTCs in its hands. The question, for me, is when . . . it may be months to years away.

[Yodean]

*****

Scenario 1: several tests of the 60k-65k zone before eventual upside break to new ATHs.

Scenario 2: consolidation between 48k and 58k.

Scenario 3: other.

[Budge]

I don't think the fat lady is about to sing she's about to scream!

"I warned on the private blog that cryptocurrencies may end up being suspended. The excuse will be Russia and the news is out now that Biden will sign an Executive Order to regulate cryptos because Russia can use it to circumvent sanctions. Not only is Biden authorizing the regulation of digital currencies, but he is also instructing to move forward with a central bank cryptocurrency. Once that is done, all other cryptocurrencies will be seized and folded into the government’s crypto. There will be no competition. Money historically has also been the Divine Privilege of Kings and Tyrants."

"Biden is now proposing to ban all Russian Energy sales to the West. Prices will rise sharply still and Biden is blaming Putin claiming this is the “price of freedom” for Ukraine which is all BS so governments can avoid responsibility for the collapse in the supply chain thanks to COVID and their shutting down fossil fuels for Climate Change."

These and other predictions from Martin Armstrong:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/worl ... cy-coming/

The West is well and truly futuit sursum.