VALE Triggered

[asifmy]

VALE @16.50 for first buy lot

[Eric]

That's up nicely... Shares were put to me on March 26 for a net cost of $16.53/share and I see it's up about 22% since then. I might have to start writing calls against it.

[Triplethought]

That's up nicely... Shares were put to me on March 26 for a net cost of $16.53/share and I see it's up about 22% since then. I might have to start writing calls against it.

After it's already up 22%? so you think it will continue to run?

[Eric]

It's up 22% in 2 months, if it gets called away on a weekly call now I'll be satisfied with well over 150% annualized returns. If I manage to keep it and write several calls on it before it gets called away or we get exit guidance I'm supercharging my returns.

[SOL]

VALE

There is resistance at the 22 levels. if it can close above that on monthly basis, then it should be in a position to test the 27 to 30 ranges with a possible overshoot to 36.00

Don't forget I believe it is the world's largest nickel producer and demand for Nickel is rising, After trending sideways for a while Nickel appears to be building momentum to challenge the 19000 ranges

[Budge]

VALE

There is resistance at the 22 levels. if it can close above that on monthly basis, then it should be in a position to test the 27 to 30 ranges with a possible overshoot to 36.00

Don't forget I believe it is the world's largest nickel producer and demand for Nickel is rising, After trending sideways for a while Nickel appears to be building momentum to challenge the 19000 ranges

I see in the latest MU we were stopped out of VALE(?)

IMO too soon to get out.

[Bionic Daughter]

VALE

There is resistance at the 22 levels. if it can close above that on monthly basis, then it should be in a position to test the 27 to 30 ranges with a possible overshoot to 36.00

Don't forget I believe it is the world's largest nickel producer and demand for Nickel is rising, After trending sideways for a while Nickel appears to be building momentum to challenge the 19000 ranges

I see in the latest MU we were stopped out of VALE(?)

IMO too soon to get out.

Thank you for posting... I missed the stop and still own it. I look forward to to seeing more of your thoughts as we go forward since Sol is officially no longer following it.

[Triplethought]

VALE

There is resistance at the 22 levels. if it can close above that on monthly basis, then it should be in a position to test the 27 to 30 ranges with a possible overshoot to 36.00

Don't forget I believe it is the world's largest nickel producer and demand for Nickel is rising, After trending sideways for a while Nickel appears to be building momentum to challenge the 19000 ranges

I see in the latest MU we were stopped out of VALE(?)

IMO too soon to get out.

Thank you for posting... I missed the stop and still own it. I look forward to to seeing more of your thoughts as we go forward since Sol is officially no longer following it.

If it helps I'm still in for 1/3 (one lot) as well. For once I didn't set a stop-limit order. I Sold my other lot at $22.50. I'm with you... I'll probably hold for a while. I also picked up NILSY at the same time we bought VALE

[Yodean]

I didn't buy VALE since I have a position in NOVRF, which is somewhat, mildly similar, although higher risk/volatility.

Anyways, FWIW, to my eyes VALE could easily test the 16.66 to 17.33 ranges before finding support. Intermediate to long-term, there is little doubt in my mind that it will most likely rise significantly.

So with stocks that T.I. is no longer actively following, there are many options. Some of these include:

1) If you have no idea what to do, just sell a little bit on every daily rise in the stock, until it's all gone.

2) If you are convinced that the stock will rise given enough time, HODL and reassess in a few months time. Or do a combination of #1 and #2.

3) You could also enter a limit sell order for the entire position at your cost basis price, and combine this in various ways with #1 and #2.

4) If you have really big balls (metaphorically speaking, of course), you could employ what I named the "Falling Dagger Gambit" (FDG) tactic. Certain conditions should be met before you employ FDG:

- you are convinced that a particular stock will rise eventually, and likely, quite significantly;
- you are comfortable with risk and have adequate funds for many lots;
- you have a decent feel and experience with the particular stock or sector in question;
- after you establish an initial position in the stock, it falls; you wait, but it keeps falling; so what you do is, you start buying small lots on every dip, the size depending how much the stock drops that day (i.e the more it drops, the more you buy); if the stock rises a bit, you don't do anything;
- so you keep doing this (buying daily dips, letting daily rises run), until your cost basis reaches market price;

* once your average cost basis is below market price - i.e. the entire, bloated position is now showing a small profit - you quickly "de-risk" the position by selling down to a much smaller position, one with which you are more comfortable;

-FDG tends to work better with large cap to mid-cap stocks;

-I've used it pretty successfully, including buying the GAMANF stocks in March/April 2020, TLT months ago, COIN, and a host of others; currently, I am employing FDG on the CTTs;

[jlhooter]

I like FDG and been starting to do this especially for stocks I believe are worth a longer play. It makes sense to me that if I buy something as the price fell and I see it going down I buy some more to reduce my cost basis with a plan to make a gain eventually on that cost basis, and depending on the position I use TI mentality selling in parts on the way up. I set a sell goal and dont care if I get out too early as long as I can hit or come close to my gain goals.

[SOL]

I like FDG and been starting to do this especially for stocks I believe are worth a longer play. It makes sense to me that if I buy something as the price fell and I see it going down I buy some more to reduce my cost basis with a plan to make a gain eventually on that cost basis, and depending on the position I use TI mentality selling in parts on the way up. I set a sell goal and dont care if I get out too early as long as I can hit or come close to my gain goals.

Overall many smart ideas are being put forward here. Any reasonable idea is okay as long one is not following the leader and believes in the strategy and has an exit plan when things don't work out

Taking profits along the way up is the smart thing to do

Here is a chart of VALE for everyone (monthly chart)



When it comes to stops we have to follow them, if we changed at the last minute it would indicate that we have no confidence in our methodology (AND THAT IS DEFINITELY NOT THE CASE ) It would be bad business even if the stock has the potential to trend higher. Secondly, we have a simple rule, we like to buy in the oversold ranges. If the stop is triggered in the overbought ranges that is fine as there are other plays and in this case we still walk away with a gain. In the end, banking consistent profits is better long term strategy and less stressfull, r than trying to squeeze more milage from a play.

[Yodean]

I like FDG and been starting to do this especially for stocks I believe are worth a longer play.

Just be really careful with FDG. When it goes wrong, it may go horribly wrong.

FDG is really a type of "nuclear" option, a last resort, to "rescue" a losing position, in a sense.

If you time your initial entries well - i.e. you are getting near an intermediate bottom of sorts, prior to the stock going up - you won't need to use FDG very much, or at all. T.I. is generally pretty good at this, especially with position trades.

Since I tend to be "early right" - I tend to be right on direction but a bit, or a lot, early - I've had to use FDG more than I would prefer. Something I am working on . . .

The important part of FDG, in my mind, and what distinguishes it from the common idea of "averaging down," is that you have the discipline to "de-risk" the position size by selling once the average cost basis is slightly lower than the market price. Sometimes greed/FOMO (of more gains) takes over at that point (since you've waited a long time for the position to go up), and you end up not wanting to sell. Usually what happens after that is the stock craters.

Messes with your mind.

[Budge]

When it comes to stops we have to follow them, if we changed at the last minute it would indicate that we have no confidence in our methodology (AND THAT IS DEFINITELY NOT THE CASE ) It would be bad business even if the stock has the potential to trend higher. Secondly, we have a simple rule, we like to buy in the oversold ranges. If the stop is triggered in the overbought ranges that is fine as there are other plays and in this case we still walk away with a gain. In the end, banking consistent profits is better long term strategy and less stressfull, r than trying to squeeze more milage from a play.

No problems here. Your system works like a dream. But, I missed the fact that we had a stop on VALE (obviously my fault) which gave rise to my rather curt comment earlier. Having said that, I am prepared to hold VALE longer. I've taken some profits and, at the outset, you referred to NILSY and ? as other companies to consider. I've held NILSY for over 4 years, and have over 100% gain (plus nice dividends along the way) and it is putting in a similar pattern as VALE. On the monthly, they are coming off highs in what I see is the first short-term down leg which will reverse and make another short-term run up.

If we look at the weekly charts, VALE is at the bottom Bollinger with the ADX and MACD dropping. MACD is in deep red and VALE's next move should be a reversal. What could spoil this? It could be overridden by the stronger monthly cycle. We'll see.

Jesse Livermore is reputed to have said that an investment is simply a trade that has gone bad.