2020 Elections

[SOL]

Well if the polls are right, then something is wrong with TI subscribers. I suspect its the other way around. We don't have a political bias, so no one can accuse of trying to control the narrative re the elections.



The results are quite interesting but focus on those that thought that it was a tie as that is another source for a last-minute surge and represents the hidden voter. The Hidden voters are not Trumpsters; they are regular individuals looking for the best possible option as opposed to simply voting along party lines

[Triplethought]

I don't see these results as a surprise or indicative. I think investors tend to be more right politically. Whereas the left includes the (approximately) 50% of the population who lives paycheck to paycheck (no real savings).

[MarkD]

I voted it was a tie for two reasons:
1. It wasn't a debate - it was a shouting match between two flawed characters. One is clearly a puppet, the other showed promise early in his term but...
2. I voted already, but I rarely straight party vote. The problem with our electorate is they are no longer representing the people who place them into office.
3. Ross Perot would win in a landslide.

During the Bush II administration (believe I have this correct), Republicans passed a bill which allows Congress to trade on information they learn before released to the public. Prior to this taking effect, blind trusts were required. Both parties are nearly identical nowadays, openly bowing to corporations. Why was the ACA enacted into law BEFORE negating trading on key legislative information? Corporate control of Congress. Check out how healthcare stocks performed after it passed. And you think it's about people and the individual mandate or preexisting conditions? Ponzi knows his way around the swamp, my friends.

[Brian]

Ross Perot, was my hero. He was the last candidate I voted for who I truly believed in.

[mokes]

I wasn't able to start a new topic, so posting this question here. With the US elections only few days away, should we move to cash or stay put? I have a 401K with my employer in which I basically invest in one of those Retirement Date ETFs and I have a IRA where I use plays from TI and do some options trading Put selling.

[Yodean]

I posted this a week ago on a different forum, regarding "The Nov. 3rd Selection":

"My two cents: neither side will concede defeat, and markets will exhibit extreme volatility in both directions. Increasing cash positions is certainly reasonable. With that said, it seems a lot of fund managers and retail investors are doing exactly that, i.e. hiding in cash. The herd is usually wrong. The Dems are acting like they have already won the White House, and are working hard on completing the "Blue Sweep" by taking the Senate, so there is no longer any incentive for them to crash the markets to derail the Don's chances of re-election. And most importantly, the Fed is ready to cap any significant, sustained downside market action. Overall, to my eyes the risk of a significant, surprising "melt-up" in U.S. equities is quite high."

[Eric]

I'm contemplating going long index ETFs (through 3x levered ETFs OR options on 1x Index based ETFs) My little brain can't do the math on leveraged index ETF options...

I EXPECT an unprecedented (in modern times) electoral college blowout in favor of Trump on election day and a potential market spike, but then comes the lawsuits...never mind that the Biden "mail-in ballot" printing presses are running at 120% and will continue to run at 120% until inauguration day since "mail in ballots" do not even need postmarks to be counted. At 17 pages per minute double-sided 11"x17" my main printer/copier could run approximately 70,000 fraudulent "mail-in-ballots" per day.

The lawsuits and voter fraud machine and Bolshevik Lying Media will cause massive uncertainty and doubt, leading to massive market swings before inauguration day. I would not be at all surprised to see DOW 23,000 AND DOW 33,000 before inauguration day 2021.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6 ... =emb_title

[Yodean]

"In the U.S., there is basically one party: The Business Party. It has two factions, called Democrats and Republicans, which are somewhat different but carry out variations on the same policies."
Noam Chomsky


"Election dispute itself will not impact markets, because both Biden and Trump are corporatists. As always, corporate media distracts populace with social, cultural and emotionally-laden 'crises.' Mainstream media will keep inflaming public - this is great for ratings, as chaos makes for good TV."
DM, Core Cub 21 member

[langdj]

@eric I agree with this statement "I EXPECT an unprecedented (in modern times) electoral college blowout in favor of Trump"

I believe the "Slaughter Meter" is running high, 90% Trump victory if no fraud. However, there is a ton a fraud as you suggest. Check out this article about Dr Shiva in Mass

https://www.pgurus.com/dr-shiva-ayyadur ... n-primary/


Dr Shiva is certainly not part of the two party system (think Ron Paul with an Engineering Degree from MIT). Ofcourse, the "fact checking sites" are all over this fraud allegation being false. However, I live in Massachusetts and saw all sorts of Dr Shiva signs, his opponent ...............not so much. I am inclined to believe him. Hope the same thing does not happen in the presidential election.

[SOL]

We are reposting info that was posted in the AI trend forum. The first post was posted by us and the second by a subscriber

more interesting data

Take this info in whatever light you want but what is almost certain is that unless one party wins with an overwhelming majority, it's going to be a dragged out process

A poll by Rasmussen Reports has US President Donald Trump leading Democrat nominee Joe Biden by 48 to 47 percent nationally, according to their report Monday.

Two percent remained undecided, and three percent said they preferred another candidate. The survey was conducted from October 21, 22 and 25, pooling 1,500 likely voters.

Rasmussen published polls last Wednesday that showed Biden leading 49 percent over the president's 46 percent. A week before, the difference was 12 percent in Biden's favor.

The vast majority of polls conducted recently have likewise shown the former vice president leading Trump.

According to the new polls, Trump is preferred by 84 percent of Republicans, while Biden is preferred by 77 percent of Democrats. Seven percent more who remained unaffiliated prefer Biden.

Trump is over Biden in Florida by 49 to 46 percent, and in Michigan by 49 to 47 percent. Biden leads in Arizona, another perennial battleground state, by 48 to 46 percent

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/internat ... nationally

3 polls have Trump leading

The media states only one poll has trump leading and they keep changing the name of the pollsters, however, so far we have three, Rammsuen, Trafalgar group and now these guys. What is noteworthy is that all these guys performed much better than the traditional pollsters

But not all is as it seems, according to Patrick Basham, polling director at the Democracy Institute. The Democracy Institute is a relative newcomer to political polling - but it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s historic 2016 upset. Basham’s latest poll has Trump up 46% to 45%, and up four points in the critical battleground states. I asked Basham why his poll looks so different than the others - and why it’s getting so little mainstream media play.


JIM ROSSI: True or False: We’re in the midst of the biggest American voter shift since at least 1964, and most pollsters cannot or are not measuring it.

PATRICK BASHAM: Partly false and partly true. It’s something of a shift, but not so much historic as an evolution of 2016. The part that is undoubtedly true is that most of the polls are misleading their readers into thinking the election is a done deal.





https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimrossi/2 ... 76a30d4ffc

[duggils]

All polls are ignoring one critical demographic in my opinion - the enormous pool of newly registered young voters. Pollsters cannot reach this group by phone calls (landline or cell phone) because these kids never "talk" on phone...they only text, chat and Discord. So, I take any of the polls with heap of salt.

From what I have observed, this particular demographic is very motivated to vote in this election (anecdotal, but at least 80% of my son's high school seniors are voting/voted).
They are all urban/sub-urban and they don't particularly like either candidate... so you can take a wild guess which way they are all leaning . The huge early voting so far is kind of an indicator of this trend.

I speak to a lot of high ranked GOP state campaign folks and their confidence levels have plummeted in the last three weeks or so. The heavy turn out seems to have caught them totally blind sided. Their hope at this moment is that the huge early turn out cannibalizes election day turn out but they are not so sure anymore. They all say one thing - independents and third party voters have swung away from Trump, even some Republicans have.

I fully expect Trump to go to extreme lengths to retain power but I am not sure if he has the institutional and court support he thinks he has to get the result in his favor. I do fear the aftermath irrespective of who wins the election and therefore I am on hold to add to my positions but actively buying Bitcoin and some GBTC.

[Yodean]

@duggils: very interesting post, thanks . . . lots to digest there. I have largely ignored the impact of the high school seniors in my personal analysis of the Nov. 3rd Selection.

Also, I have accumulated a large position in GBTC, largely for macro-trend and technical reasons - curious as to your specific reasons. Generally, as you know, the USD is the first asset to go up in uncertain times like these, and shortly after, perhaps gold and U.S. Tech Titans. Your last line seems to imply that you view BTC as a safe haven, as well.

[scott]

If interested, below is a link to a thread (I didn't post in it)in a Russian expat (not all American) forum about the election.

https://forum.expat.ru/showthread.php?6 ... Next-POTUS

[Alykin]

Trump barely squeaked in his 2016 win when many democrats were not engaged due to a dislike of Hillary. Since then Trump has turned away independents who gave him a chance, and republicans who see through his incompetence, constant lying, projection of his own corruption onto others, and democrats have a renewed interest in getting him out.

Turning prior supporters against you and energizing your oppositional base isn't a winning strategy. Loud fanaticals who buy into the conspiracy theories and ignore inconvenient facts do not make a majority, even if they do make more noise.

[SOL]

Trump barely squeaked in his 2016 win when many democrats were not engaged due to a dislike of Hillary. Since then Trump has turned away independents who gave him a chance, and republicans who see through his incompetence, constant lying, projection of his own corruption onto others, and democrats have a renewed interest in getting him out.

Turning prior supporters against you and energizing your oppositional base isn't a winning strategy. Loud fanaticals who buy into the conspiracy theories and ignore inconvenient facts do not make a majority, even if they do make more noise.

whatever the outcome, let's hope its not a contested election for that will not only polarise the country even further, it could lead to an outcome that might go against the popular vote and or electoral college if dragged to the supreme court and enough noise is made about voter fraud, (whether the noise is valid or not is irrelevant for it appears today that the group that shouts the loudest is generally right) then a whole can of worms will be opened or maybe even Pandora's box.

Hence the least worrisome outcome would be for one party to win the election decisively and put an end to any what if scenarios