Fills

[Centeron631]

agreed. But if this market keeps going down i get to make fun of you as my contrarian indicator for teasing me when I took 60% of my funds to cash (out of the market) last week. Oh, I know it will probably bounce some more but still, at the moment I look prescient.

Rally Of All Rallies on the way, amigo ...

A few speed bumps here and there ...

If the pattern holds, and so far, there are no reasons to expect it won't, you are on the money. But what comes after that is looking increasingly negative. Actually, I hope I am wrong, for it is easy to rebalance in a bull market but not so easy in a very tough down market. Recall the Fake bull in 2008 and 1973 to early 1974.

I am assuming that Sol is addressing Yodean here and not Triple as to "if the pattern holds.....you are on the money" . Then Sol clouds that interp by asking to recall Fake bull - so is he talking now in favor of Triple not Yodean? ie that the expected run up in Sept/Oct may be a fake..? Or is it?... "But what comes after is looking increasingly negative" does this mean Sol that u r still predicting 70% chance of run up Sept/Oct and that the fall then off the cliff is going to be worse than expected.
Overall a very confusing submission imo and i only wish Sol that u would take the time to look for other possible interpretations in your writings as a general as i find too many of ur statements r open to different interpretations and subs r relying on U with their precious money. thks i hope u take this as constructive criticism as it is meant.

[Triplethought]

Overall a very confusing submission imo and i only wish Sol that u would take the time to look for other possible interpretations in your writings as a general as i find too many of ur statements r open to different interpretations and subs r relying on U with their precious money. thks i hope u take this as constructive criticism as it is meant.

I think he's agreeing with Yodean that there will likely be a short term upwards run (although I can't see why unless shadowy players are trying to fool everyone but I don't buy into that conspiracy) but he's agreeing with me that we want to be more in cash the latter part of this year. I may be 2 months early but In my case I'm doing Burning Man and then rafting the Grand Canyon so will be out of office for entire month of Sept and I believe that FED Sept 16 meeting will increase interest rate another .75% which will "surprise" all the optimists and lead to an earlier than SOL has predicted stock decline lasting thru most of Oct or longer. But who the hell knows. I could be missing a hell of a rally associated with midterm elections shortly after November 8th if republicans prevail. I'll be looking at SOL's sentiment indicators in mid October to see what they say.

[bpcw]

Rally Of All Rallies on the way, amigo ...

A few speed bumps here and there ...

If the pattern holds, and so far, there are no reasons to expect it won't, you are on the money. But what comes after that is looking increasingly negative. Actually, I hope I am wrong, for it is easy to rebalance in a bull market but not so easy in a very tough down market. Recall the Fake bull in 2008 and 1973 to early 1974.

I am assuming that Sol is addressing Yodean here and not Triple as to "if the pattern holds.....you are on the money" . Then Sol clouds that interp by asking to recall Fake bull - so is he talking now in favor of Triple not Yodean? ie that the expected run up in Sept/Oct may be a fake..? Or is it?... "But what comes after is looking increasingly negative" does this mean Sol that u r still predicting 70% chance of run up Sept/Oct and that the fall then off the cliff is going to be worse than expected.
Overall a very confusing submission imo and i only wish Sol that u would take the time to look for other possible interpretations in your writings as a general as i find too many of ur statements r open to different interpretations and subs r relying on U with their precious money. thks i hope u take this as constructive criticism as it is meant.

Yeah Sol's reply is to Yodean's comments agreeing that we will get a big bounce after this current consolidation but that after we have topped in the thrust stage in late September to early October things look pretty negative so Sol's predictions are the same, its more of a confirmation that things look to be panning out as stated previously. I think Sol has said that if this prediction changes he will do it through an update and not a quick response to someone's comment.

That's my take anyway.

[SOL]

If the pattern holds, and so far, there are no reasons to expect it won't, you are on the money. But what comes after that is looking increasingly negative. Actually, I hope I am wrong, for it is easy to rebalance in a bull market but not so easy in a very tough down market. Recall the Fake bull in 2008 and 1973 to early 1974.

I am assuming that Sol is addressing Yodean here and not Triple as to "if the pattern holds.....you are on the money" . Then Sol clouds that interp by asking to recall Fake bull - so is he talking now in favor of Triple not Yodean? ie that the expected run up in Sept/Oct may be a fake..? Or is it?... "But what comes after is looking increasingly negative" does this mean Sol that u r still predicting 70% chance of run up Sept/Oct and that the fall then off the cliff is going to be worse than expected.
Overall a very confusing submission imo and i only wish Sol that u would take the time to look for other possible interpretations in your writings as a general as i find too many of ur statements r open to different interpretations and subs r relying on U with their precious money. thks i hope u take this as constructive criticism as it is meant.

Yeah Sol's reply is to Yodean's comments agreeing that we will get a big bounce after this current consolidation but that after we have topped in the thrust stage in late September to early October things look pretty negative so Sol's predictions are the same, its more of a confirmation that things look to be panning out as stated previously. I think Sol has said that if this prediction changes he will do it through an update and not a quick response to someone's comment.

That's my take anyway.

@centeron631 BPCW has addressed the question. However, responding to a subscriber's post should not be considered a change unless addressed in an update. I can't always post a lengthy response when responding to a comment. Otherwise, I would be here forever and if that was expected of me all the time. I would simply be forced to comment less often .

Looking at my comment, nothing was said that could be construed as a change. The downturn is still expected to be stronger than the correction that ended in June. If the outlook changes, it will be addressed in an update. Hope that helps.

[Centeron631]

so we have Yodean and Sol going the same way basically in there opinions and Triple going the other way - fair enuf as Sol has said prior to my recollection that it is only a 70% chance of coming to pass as stated and also in the time frame stated. But why or how do these words fit in if at all, i still do not get, and Sol does not make clear which previous statement this statement is modifiying (which is not unusual imo) = "Recall the Fake bull in 2008 and 1973 to early 1974" so left dangling on this....

[bpcw]

so we have Yodean and Sol going the same way basically in there opinions and Triple going the other way - fair enuf as Sol has said prior to my recollection that it is only a 70% chance of coming to pass as stated and also in the time frame stated. But why or how do these words fit in if at all, i still do not get, and Sol does not make clear which previous statement this statement is modifiying (which is not unusual imo) = "Recall the Fake bull in 2008 and 1973 to early 1974" so left dangling on this....

I think the mistake we can make is to hang off every lose comment Sol makes on this forum. It is better to get our guidance from the updates and if they aren't clear then to ask for clarity when they come out. The general comments on the forum are quite often in response to individuals and not to be seen as a potential change of direction from TIT.

I think the reason Sol put the statement that things are looking negative for the late September/early October timeframe and added the past examples of fake bulls is because Yodean had raised doubts that we could see a crash in this timeframe and could even see a white swan event resulting in the resumption of the bull market with new all time highs. Sol is therefore addressing this and confirming that he still believes things are looking negative in the 4th qtr, in fact more so now. That's why it's best to stick to the updates rather than follow the nuances of one to one dialogues between individuals if it brings confusion.

And remember that every bit of guidance is based on TIT opinion as to the probability of something coming to pass, no absolute certainties but their record is excellent and that's all one can ask for. We have to manage risk according to our own investment style based on the probability guidance.

I've been confused myself in the past but now trying to work more independently, using what I believe to be a great source of guidance but adjusting to my own style of investing and using 1 or 2 other sources for balance.

[George1010]

so we have Yodean and Sol going the same way basically in there opinions and Triple going the other way - fair enuf as Sol has said prior to my recollection that it is only a 70% chance of coming to pass as stated and also in the time frame stated. But why or how do these words fit in if at all, i still do not get, and Sol does not make clear which previous statement this statement is modifiying (which is not unusual imo) = "Recall the Fake bull in 2008 and 1973 to early 1974" so left dangling on this....

I think the mistake we can make is to hang off every lose comment Sol makes on this forum. It is better to get our guidance from the updates and if they aren't clear then to ask for clarity when they come out. The general comments on the forum are quite often in response to individuals and not to be seen as a potential change of direction from TIT.

I think the reason Sol put the statement that things are looking negative for the late September/early October timeframe and added the past examples of fake bulls is because Yodean had raised doubts that we could see a crash in this timeframe and could even see a white swan event resulting in the resumption of the bull market with new all time highs. Sol is therefore addressing this and confirming that he still believes things are looking negative in the 4th qtr, in fact more so now. That's why it's best to stick to the updates rather than follow the nuances of one to one dialogues between individuals if it brings confusion.

And remember that every bit of guidance is based on TIT opinion as to the probability of something coming to pass, no absolute certainties but their record is excellent and that's all one can ask for. We have to manage risk according to our own investment style based on the probability guidance.

I've been confused myself in the past but now trying to work more independently, using what I believe to be a great source of guidance but adjusting to my own style of investing and using 1 or 2 other sources for balance.

I could not have phrased better myself Bpcw and I fully concur with your assessment of the situation. One can't expect SOL to explain every single statement especially if it is in response to another comment.

I believe if anyone had pulled up a chart from 2008 to 2009 and 1973 to 1974 one would have easily understood what SOL was implying.

Another thing to remember is old adage when in doubt sit out, so if you don't understand what is going in a conversation between two individuals, don't fret about it too much, refer to the last MU or the last interim update posted in the forum.

[bpcw]

Also just to add that I think that we shouldn't take Yodean's past comments about white swan events etc. as his opinion on what he believes will occur, he's just stating that we do not know for certain and their are other potential (even if low probability) outcomes.

If you feel any confliction and are in the markets for the long game then you could adjust your cash balance accordingly, you could go 50% cash in the 4th qtr or 30% etc. Triplethought has done something similar, adjusting his cash balance due to his particular personal circumstances in that he is going to be away for a month.

[scott]

Wasn't sure where to post, since it touches a few topics we are concerned about. "Fills" has turned into a kind of "catch all". Niall Ferguson seems much in agreement on these topics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2vqnpXWM0Y

[SOL]

Wasn't sure where to post, since it touches a few topics we are concerned about. "Fills" has turned into a kind of "catch all". Niall Ferguson seems much in agreement on these topics.

I suspect this place is good as any to post this video. He is in agreement with our outlook, where we stated that the markets would follow the 1973-1974 pattern. They might end up following them even more closely than expected. The pullback could wait until, Oct as was the case in 1973, especially as the last stage of the follow-through rally is taking longer to come to fruition. A hazardous signal would be for several indices to diverge. For example, the Nasdaq or Russel 2000 tops in Sept, while the top of the other in October. Overall, the COVID and energy crises share one common theme; the top players pushed things to the limit. In both instances, they used psyops to create the illusion of something that is not really there and keeps working.

Almost no one that is under 50 truly understands what it is to go through tough times. Some might have a better understanding than others, especially if they were initially raised outside the USA. However, one can confidently say that over 90% of those under 40 in North America don't seem to think anything terrible can happen, which is why something that can cause immense pain will happen. Secondly, their version of bad is basically a normal day for anyone from the 70s. Another major issue is that the average American hardly saves; in most cases, this has to do with living well beyond their means. More in the next update or interim update.

However, for those that are ready for the battle of the trenches to move ot the next phase, when the dust settles, the opportunity is going to be at least 3x LARGER than the one presented after the COVID crash. What separates the winners from the losers in the market is that winners learn from history, and they understand that you don't tell the markets what to do, but you pay attention to what they are doing.

Low to medium risk takers should move deeply into cash towards the end of Sept to early oct

[Yodean]

*****

A more visual representation of the '73-'74 thesis.

While possible, I daresay it is not my base case.

In my view, we're either going to break the June lows in the equity indices soon, or there has to be a really large rally before another big drawdown.

Statistically, the most likely outcome is a volatile, wide trading range during sideways consolidation.

We tend to think the markets have to go up or down, but markets spend most of their time in trading ranges.

[Centeron631]

Sol wrote Sep 03

However, for those that are ready for the battle of the trenches to move ot the next phase, when the dust settles, the opportunity is going to be at least 3x LARGER than the one presented after the COVID crash. What separates the winners from the losers in the market is that winners learn from history, and they understand that you don't tell the markets what to do, but you pay attention to what they are doing.

Low to medium risk takers should move deeply into cash towards the end of Sept to early oct

Sol does this move to cash on this time table hold no matter what the market is then doing ? if so and if not could u please explain/elaborate? thks

[Do-or-Die]

Sol wrote Sep 03

However, for those that are ready for the battle of the trenches to move ot the next phase, when the dust settles, the opportunity is going to be at least 3x LARGER than the one presented after the COVID crash. What separates the winners from the losers in the market is that winners learn from history, and they understand that you don't tell the markets what to do, but you pay attention to what they are doing.

Low to medium risk takers should move deeply into cash towards the end of Sept to early oct

Sol does this move to cash on this time table hold no matter what the market is then doing ? if so and if not could u please explain/elaborate? thks

I think one has to somewhat customize those suggestions according to one's needs/risks. I am also pretty sure Sol and Team will give specific instructions on when to exit longs at that point we have to decide whether we sell everything or reduce our holdings significantly. I can kind of bet hard but smart type of investors. So I will move heavy into cash when the indices hit the suggested targets, with the intent of coming back into the markets even harder. If we get an MOAB I going to use up to 70% of my margin but slowly.

[Centeron631]

Any one buying today on droops of Dow -883 and nasdq -485 and if so what?

[djanderle]

I bought some more TQQQ and LABU today.