Interim update Sept 30, 2021

[Yodean]

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/stat ... 8561250304

*****

could be clue interim bottom's in, or close; also, recent amd selling by Con-grease dude, several weeks before amd tanked yesterday;

it's a rigged game ... but if you don't play, inflation and taxes rob you of your purchasing power anyways ...

[MarkD]

Good synopsis from a guy I follow for general advice. Might add that during the 1970s, housing did not increase much at the end of the WWII and Vietnam debt liquidation (and Nixon administration terminating the backing of the dollar to gold). But new housing was lower quality (7 foot basements e.g. ; rural folks actually poured the basement and installed roofing and lived below grade for years until the home above was built). The notion that Millennials have it worse than priors is a bit extreme thinking imo. Wife and I were both raised in 900 sf homes. Only decent thong in them were the solid plank wood floors. More operant conditioning of the woke.

With regards to the markets, there was no "technology boom" in the 70s. Inflation may be trumped by ever increased technological advancement.

https://youtu.be/1tEVPjx-Zhw

[outof thebox]

Good synopsis from a guy I follow for general advice. Might add that during the 1970s, housing did not increase much at the end of the WWII and Vietnam debt liquidation (and Nixon administration terminating the backing of the dollar to gold). But new housing was lower quality (7 foot basements e.g. ; rural folks actually poured the basement and installed roofing and lived below grade for years until the home above was built). The notion that Millennials have it worse than priors is a bit extreme thinking imo. Wife and I were both raised in 900 sf homes. Only decent thong in them were the solid plank wood floors. More operant conditioning of the woke.

With regards to the markets, there was no "technology boom" in the 70s. Inflation may be trumped by ever increased technological advancement.

https://youtu.be/1tEVPjx-Zhw

Simple and straight forward analysis. Thanks for posting it

[loczkins]

Sol,
technical question - maybe i missed proper instruction.
CHPT - since the price penetrated only partially the range you gave as TP and triggered some action - will this still be monitored as 'not sold yet'? my TP was a bit higher that CHPT hit so i still own that.

cheers

Sure we can monitor it. All anyone has to do is send us an email or post the question here, and if I forget, remind me again. We won't EVER leave a subscriber hanging

We are taking profits whenever we can, faster than normal, to build up some cash. As a safety (defensive) measure, place a mental stop roughly where you went long. It's a decent company, but we are in volatile times, so decent means nothing, as fear has a tendency to override everything of value.


The daily chart of CHPT



It's poised to trade higher and will do so faster than the markets if people stop overreacting to the news. It has also held up remarkably well in this volatile environment. it is still trading significantly above its June lows. An easy trade would be to try to get out in the 18.00 to 18.30 ranges; this could be achieved even if the markets are allowed to just drift higher. If the markets are allowed to rally on normal basis, then the old highs could be challenged.


On separate note

The Fed is causing massive damage to the credit markets, housing markets, the IPO market and a host of other markets, not to mention the severe damage to the developing world's ability to service their debt. Something could give fast; for example, there could be a liquidity issue in our bond markets, as was the case in England, which will force the Fed to intervene. If it does that, the markets will forget about rising rates and focus on the fact that the Fed has no option but to bend over. However, as individuals have stated, we have a bunch of mini psychos in the US government, and these crazies have access to money and guns, so they could push things further than what a typical lunatic would be inclined to do. But even psychos have a sense of self-preservation and for an economy that never recovered from the 2008 to 2009 crash, these chaps are really playing with fire. Ultimately those that play with fire get burned while those that watch from the sidelines (like the PTB) make a fortune

As advised i am reminding about keeping CHPT in Market Update

[SOL]

As advised i am reminding about keeping CHPT in Market Update

Nothing much has changed since the last update. It is still trading in the oversold ranges on the daily charts. It has not rallied with the markets so far, it would need a daily close above 13.80 (preferably weekly) to indicate higher prices are in store. This stock has the potential to rally much higher in the years to come, but it's off to a negative start, the Dow is already 2K off its lows and this chap has hardly budged. The safest option for an investor would be to sell half the option when the position is in the black and then attempt to sell the other half in the 17.90 to 18.30 ranges.

[outof thebox]

I am not buying into the "rally before big dip" nonsense at this time. Sorry....I almost fell for that before. The black swan of war is flying a little too low for my taste.

Jonny Jonny I have to say you are becoming almost a better indicator than TTH. Bought extra CPB, WMT, KMB, PDD (speculative) and UDOW when you signaled the black swan of war was coming. Hopefully you don't turn too bullish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GjOOyBoELw

[outof thebox]

As advised i am reminding about keeping CHPT in Market Update

Nothing much has changed since the last update. It is still trading in the oversold ranges on the daily charts. It has not rallied with the markets so far, it would need a daily close above 13.80 (preferably weekly) to indicate higher prices are in store. This stock has the potential to rally much higher in the years to come, but it's off to a negative start, the Dow is already 2K off its lows and this chap has hardly budged. The safest option for an investor would be to sell half the option when the position is in the black and then attempt to sell the other half in the 17.90 to 18.30 ranges.

[jonnyfrank]

Outofthebox,

So, you want to go down this road? Ok.

While history cannot be re-written, and at the time that was where I was at (almost 75 days ago), events have changed and the black swan of the Ukraine war is now a fledgling chickadee. But hey, they are going after men for alleged "rapes" 35 years ago, so go ahead and cling to my past post. It is a new day and the constant flow of change continues to cascade down on us. I'm positioned heavy in my long portfolio right now, so we shall see.

In the meantime, I would throw you a dime so you could call your mommy but there is no longer the need for that with cell phones, so this will have to do (she will give you a big hug I am sure, and maybe even a cake pop): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOLxQGL ... annel=Enzo

[SOL]

Outofthebox,

So, you want to go down this road? Ok.

While history cannot be re-written, and at the time that was where I was at (almost 75 days ago), events have changed and the black swan of the Ukraine war is now a fledgling chickadee. But hey, they are going after men for alleged "rapes" 35 years ago, so go ahead and cling to my past post. It is a new day and the constant flow of change continues to cascade down on us. I'm positioned heavy in my long portfolio right now, so we shall see.

In the meantime, I would throw you a dime so you could call your mommy but there is no longer the need for that with cell phones, so this will have to do (she will give you a big hug I am sure, and maybe even a cake pop): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOLxQGL ... annel=Enzo

I think he is messing around JF, take it with a shot of whisky. I think you adjusted fairly well to the markets.

[SOL]

The more interesting factor is what is going on with the Inflation data. Oil prices are dropping, credit markets are locking up, housing prices dropping, and rentals dropping, Gas prices are lower and yet readings still come in higher.

[jonnyfrank]

SOL,

That was my single salvo. No worries. Nothing like a shot of whiskey at 6am

[SOL]

jonny, that clip cracked me up, which made me click on this one

https://youtu.be/HNR4hKbSH7I

[outof thebox]

Outofthebox,

So, you want to go down this road? Ok.

While history cannot be re-written, and at the time that was where I was at (almost 75 days ago), events have changed and the black swan of the Ukraine war is now a fledgling chickadee. But hey, they are going after men for alleged "rapes" 35 years ago, so go ahead and cling to my past post. It is a new day and the constant flow of change continues to cascade down on us. I'm positioned heavy in my long portfolio right now, so we shall see.

In the meantime, I would throw you a dime so you could call your mommy but there is no longer the need for that with cell phones, so this will have to do (she will give you a big hug I am sure, and maybe even a cake pop): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOLxQGL ... annel=Enzo

I think he is messing around JF, take it with a shot of whisky. I think you adjusted fairly well to the markets.

You got me back Good Bro. But in all honesty I was just joking around. Sorry, if I raised your BP a bit, that was not my intent.

Here is something to go with your coffee or whisky. Imagine you are the one doing the spanking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jghBo_NB5e8

[jonnyfrank]

Box,

I am good. My reply was simply a rebuttal to your jab. I can handle it. Besides, having the opportunity the post the Stewie scene was golden, lol.

In reference to the phone call suggestion, I had an old college professor who taught advanced micro economic theory using the Socratic/Harkness method, and it was a class of about eight eggheads who would be called on throughout the class. There was no place to hide. If a problem was thrown at you and you stumbled at the chalkboard trying to present a solution he would tell you to sit down while sliding a dime (10 cents) across the table and tell you to "go call your mommy if you need comfort, but you are not getting it from me....next time, come prepared....NEXT!". I loved the guy and his what is now considered "old school" approach. Rest assured, we all came to class loaded for bear but every once in a while we got stumped, because calculus based micro economic theory ain't no joke!!!! Now, kids are coddled and get straight "A's" just for showing up. It is insane. Anyway, we are all good! Let's just keep sharing our thoughts and ideas so we can all learn. Lord knows this market defies much of the textbook approach.

[MarkD]

Flunking trig based calculus was a wake up call. My advisor made an error. I managed him for the remainder of my tenure at the U. His mistake was telling me it was ok to take trig (not offered in HS) at the same time as Calc 1 for engineer/scientists. We were well into some complex mathematical relationships before trig prof got to them.

Aced trig, and secured a B in Calc 1 second time around (five day course, attended 2-3 days a week).

Advisor was annoyed with me until graduation. Winning.