Interim update Sept 30, 2021

[Yodean]

Here's a stock chart I really like atm. It displays price bars using Equivolume, width is relative volume in this method, and indicates where differences in accumulation/distribution are taking place between price over time.

Hey, I've been meaning to ask you ... do you mind posting one of your charts using your specific methodology for USD, as well as for TLT? Curious ...

[MarkD]

I am happy to assist.

Here's TLT weekly in two versions Monthly for the LT perspective

https://imgur.com/7R2YIfB

https://imgur.com/WGBgQ6X

Blue dashed is from the beginning of reported data for the ETF.

Q: What would you like for the $USD? Stockcharts doesn't report volume. UUP is available.

[LoriPrecisely]

Several of my stocks (N*T, AS*N, T*D, M*CH) have been trending upward since Sept 26. Not sure which service, thus the code

And, all of the indices ($DJI, $COMPX, $SPX, $RUT) have hopped up since Oct 3.

[Yodean]

Q: What would you like for the $USD? Stockcharts doesn't report volume. UUP is available.

Thanks Mark for the TLT charts. Yes, UUP is a decent proxy.

[MarkD]

Let me know if this works for you. Similar as TLT, AVWAP on top chart with Peak Energy S/R lines. When the dollar dumps there's going to be a lot of liquidity sloshing around.

https://imgur.com/mNz9stw

https://imgur.com/9RYxbIB

[MarkD]

Just started reading Howard Marks, Mastering the Market Cycle. Thought this to be appropriate.

https://imgur.com/w4DHGya

[SOL]

Let me know if this works for you. Similar as TLT, AVWAP on top chart with Peak Energy S/R lines. When the dollar dumps there's going to be a lot of liquidity sloshing around.

Agree; when the dollar pulls back it is going to provide a nice boost for the Markets. However, the SOB is being stubborn. On the monthly charts, it is trading in extremely and very close to the insanely overbought ranges, but on the weekly charts posted below, there is still a bit of room to test the highs again. Ideally, it spikes up and closes lower, triggering a negative divergence in the MACDs. Overall such patterns indicate that the market usually tends to pull back and consolidate for at least 4 weeks and often for as much as 9 weeks.



A daily close below 108.90 but preferably on a weekly basis, should get the ball rolling.

[MarkD]

Yodean

I updated UUP for weekly and it's a bit more clear imo of potential future price movement.

https://imgur.com/YSLd2Xo

[Tobeornot]

Yodean

I updated UUP for weekly and it's a bit more clear imo of potential future price movement.

https://imgur.com/YSLd2Xo

Is the chart indicating that the dollar is ripe for a drop?

[Tobeornot]

Let me know if this works for you. Similar as TLT, AVWAP on top chart with Peak Energy S/R lines. When the dollar dumps there's going to be a lot of liquidity sloshing around.

Agree; when the dollar pulls back it is going to provide a nice boost for the Markets. However, the SOB is being stubborn. On the monthly charts, it is trading in extremely and very close to the insanely overbought ranges, but on the weekly charts posted below, there is still a bit of room to test the highs again. Ideally, it spikes up and closes lower, triggering a negative divergence in the MACDs. Overall such patterns indicate that the market usually tends to pull back and consolidate for at least 4 weeks and often for as much as 9 weeks.



A daily close below 108.90 but preferably on a weekly basis, should get the ball rolling.

SOL do you think it would be worth buying puts on UUP or would be better to wait until the dollar closes below 109.00

[Yodean]

Yodean
I updated UUP for weekly and it's a bit more clear imo of potential future price movement.

Thanks Mark ... a bit of a potential reversal Doji candle ... plus, that 115 USD level on a weekly closing basis is important to me.

If USD closes above 115 on a weekly basis and confirms above, I may actually throw some sort of hedge on ... don't think it will happen.

[MarkD]

Maybe a pullback, correction or sideways. Just seems like a lot of folks are now buying fairly late in the game. Peaks in VBP seem to be important at turning points. But it could take weeks or months for the lead dog to distribute just like they do at stock market tops.

[loczkins]

Sol,
technical question - maybe i missed proper instruction.
CHPT - since the price penetrated only partially the range you gave as TP and triggered some action - will this still be monitored as 'not sold yet'? my TP was a bit higher that CHPT hit so i still own that.

cheers

[SOL]

Sol,
technical question - maybe i missed proper instruction.
CHPT - since the price penetrated only partially the range you gave as TP and triggered some action - will this still be monitored as 'not sold yet'? my TP was a bit higher that CHPT hit so i still own that.

cheers

Sure we can monitor it. All anyone has to do is send us an email or post the question here, and if I forget, remind me again. We won't EVER leave a subscriber hanging

We are taking profits whenever we can, faster than normal, to build up some cash. As a safety (defensive) measure, place a mental stop roughly where you went long. It's a decent company, but we are in volatile times, so decent means nothing, as fear has a tendency to override everything of value.


The daily chart of CHPT



It's poised to trade higher and will do so faster than the markets if people stop overreacting to the news. It has also held up remarkably well in this volatile environment. it is still trading significantly above its June lows. An easy trade would be to try to get out in the 18.00 to 18.30 ranges; this could be achieved even if the markets are allowed to just drift higher. If the markets are allowed to rally on normal basis, then the old highs could be challenged.


On separate note

The Fed is causing massive damage to the credit markets, housing markets, the IPO market and a host of other markets, not to mention the severe damage to the developing world's ability to service their debt. Something could give fast; for example, there could be a liquidity issue in our bond markets, as was the case in England, which will force the Fed to intervene. If it does that, the markets will forget about rising rates and focus on the fact that the Fed has no option but to bend over. However, as individuals have stated, we have a bunch of mini psychos in the US government, and these crazies have access to money and guns, so they could push things further than what a typical lunatic would be inclined to do. But even psychos have a sense of self-preservation and for an economy that never recovered from the 2008 to 2009 crash, these chaps are really playing with fire. Ultimately those that play with fire get burned while those that watch from the sidelines (like the PTB) make a fortune

[loczkins]

Sol,
technical question - maybe i missed proper instruction.
CHPT - since the price penetrated only partially the range you gave as TP and triggered some action - will this still be monitored as 'not sold yet'? my TP was a bit higher that CHPT hit so i still own that.

cheers

Sure we can monitor it. All anyone has to do is send us an email or post the question here, and if I forget, remind me again. We won't EVER leave a subscriber hanging

We are taking profits whenever we can, faster than normal, to build up some cash. As a safety (defensive) measure, place a mental stop roughly where you went long. It's a decent company, but we are in volatile times, so decent means nothing, as fear has a tendency to override everything of value.


The daily chart of CHPT



It's poised to trade higher and will do so faster than the markets if people stop overreacting to the news. It has also held up remarkably well in this volatile environment. it is still trading significantly above its June lows. An easy trade would be to try to get out in the 18.00 to 18.30 ranges; this could be achieved even if the markets are allowed to just drift higher. If the markets are allowed to rally on normal basis, then the old highs could be challenged.


On separate note

The Fed is causing massive damage to the credit markets, housing markets, the IPO market and a host of other markets, not to mention the severe damage to the developing world's ability to service their debt. Something could give fast; for example, there could be a liquidity issue in our bond markets, as was the case in England, which will force the Fed to intervene. If it does that, the markets will forget about rising rates and focus on the fact that the Fed has no option but to bend over. However, as individuals have stated, we have a bunch of mini psychos in the US government, and these crazies have access to money and guns, so they could push things further than what a typical lunatic would be inclined to do. But even psychos have a sense of self-preservation and for an economy that never recovered from the 2008 to 2009 crash, these chaps are really playing with fire. Ultimately those that play with fire get burned while those that watch from the sidelines (like the PTB) make a fortune

All clear, thanks Sol