Interim update Sept 30, 2021

[Centeron631]

Yodean u have used a similar alert system with notes - how r u handling same as per my question a few messages above re stock updates pricing governed by index ranges? thks

[frenszisz8]

Yodean u have used a similar alert system with notes - how r u handling same as per my question a few messages above re stock updates pricing governed by index ranges? thks

Not from Yodean, but the way I handle alerts is using an paid tier of a freemium app called My Stock Portfolio, where one can set below or above alert with custom notes to remember what to act. It handles stocks, options, indexes (just use IXIC & GSPC), etc. Also the app has more functions, but I so far only use it for alerts.

[MarkD]

fwiw

https://imgur.com/obzhVST

I think you might have to explain to newcomers what your charts are stating

The three indicators on the chart are Volume by Price

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php ... e_by_price

Anchored VWAP

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php ... hored_vwap

Peak Expansion (Energy)

https://ng.investing.com/analysis/weekl ... ies-103152

If you observe price it tends to top and bottom at VBP levels which are longer than the rest. And wicks tend to form above and below the level of a key reversal (https://thepatternsite.com/KRD.html).

I watch the candles and determine if price is at a potential exhaustion point, and then add breadth indicators for the indices (volume summation, hilo, up/down volume, etc). The solid MAs are Anchored VWAP at all price lows after a new high from the Covid bottom. The dashed pink is AVWAP from the ATH. Note all of the AVWAPs are converging near Sol's exit price which I highlighted using the horizontal support resistance line (red green). Notice how much volume is displayed via the VBP on the left in the range of the AVWAPs. Tons of O/H resistance or zone of potential distribution. You can also observe a weekly double bottom on the bright green Peak Energy line around 10565. That is also near a VBP level where price reversed upwards at the end of CY20.

None of this is a guarantee but a guidestone to how price might behave at turns. I am currently very long and buying dips since selling out 60% of my at the August high btw.

And here's the up/down volume for the NYSE. Impressive reversal, not evident in the $COMPQ btw.

https://imgur.com/K0PmEq5

[Yodean]

Yodean u have used a similar alert system with notes - how r u handling same as per my question a few messages above re stock updates pricing governed by index ranges? thks

I tend to do my own thing - I don't follow any of the recommendations from the TIT or the other financial services which I use in an automatic fashion - or if I do, only for relatively small amounts of capital.

For me, the big money goes in if I really agree with a particular investment thesis that is proposed.

I look at my own charts, do my own sentiment readings, maybe consult with a few select others occasionally, etc. before entering a play.

Once a year, I go through what a particular service's strengths and weaknesses are, and adjust how much weight I place on them.

No need for specific alerts in my system.

[LoriPrecisely]

I am currently very long and buying dips since selling out 60% of my at the August high btw.

Well, you are smarter than me.

[MarkD]

It's not about intellect. It's persistence, patience, time, and lots of beatings. Nobody on this site or elsewhere is more or less intelligent. If you are engaged you can figure some of it out and make it your own. I buy and sell more conservatively than many. A win is a win. But there are odds in every position.

One last thing to remember, sentiment is most important at the extremes. In between a lot of noise goes on.

[SOL]

The three indicators on the chart are Volume by Price

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php ... e_by_price

Anchored VWAP

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php ... hored_vwap

Peak Expansion (Energy)

https://ng.investing.com/analysis/weekl ... ies-103152

If you observe price it tends to top and bottom at VBP levels which are longer than the rest. And wicks tend to form above and below the level of a key reversal (https://thepatternsite.com/KRD.html).

I watch the candles and determine if price is at a potential exhaustion point, and then add breadth indicators for the indices (volume summation, hilo, up/down volume, etc). The solid MAs are Anchored VWAP at all price lows after a new high from the Covid bottom. The dashed pink is AVWAP from the ATH. Note all of the AVWAPs are converging near Sol's exit price which I highlighted using the horizontal support resistance line (red green). Notice how much volume is displayed via the VBP on the left in the range of the AVWAPs. Tons of O/H resistance or zone of potential distribution. You can also observe a weekly double bottom on the bright green Peak Energy line around 10565. That is also near a VBP level where price reversed upwards at the end of CY20.

None of this is a guarantee but a guidestone to how price might behave at turns. I am currently very long and buying dips since selling out 60% of my at the August high btw.

And here's the up/down volume for the NYSE. Impressive reversal, not evident in the $COMPQ btw.

Ever thought about adding Keltner channels to your studies might help improve the outlook or not? Sometimes linear regression with the ability to adjust the lines on a standard deviation basis provides some good insights.

Nice explanation by the way

[MarkD]

I didn't want to confuse the issue as the chart is already busy. Always have BB and KC on my charts. BB inside KC can result in big moves...below is the other version of a chart I review. Repeat, these are only INDICATORS, and if Sol is correct may be inaccurate in the ST. I do use daily on breadth charts which I reference but have morphed to weekly and monthly for S/R. Entry is sometimes on 30 minute. But after beginning to follow TI more closely these are more for reference of whether or not I should enter/exit with TI price levels or hold out. Hence, 30 minute charts.

Notice the lack of volume just below the double bottom. This is an area where a wick can occur as price rebounds near the VBP level. Caution: VBP levels are NOT hard stops. As with any indicator they represent a range of value. Look at the price bars and find a level where price opened or closed and that is more likely a true level of S/R.

https://imgur.com/D1D9aT4

Bollinger Bands and Keltner channels (SD of price, MAs, ADX (based on hilo), MACD, VBP. Joe Rabil has free stuff on the use of MACD and ADX on stockcharts.com.

Probably too many indicators but I have become used to using them for a while. Bands and a volume indicator with price action accompanied by breadth is likely sufficient imo. Study the action of price at those VBP levels and band extremes, along with BB inside KC. I wasted a lot of time before I figured out VBP.

Anna Coulling has a book on Volume Price Analysis that has good value imo. You can find her on YT vids also.

One last note, I circled the wick from the first bottom in June. Indecisive candle with two long wicks but it does extend below the long VBP level and rebound after extension. None of this is science. Takes time to visualize whether or not this is a bottom. But breadth had already identified potential. And MP/Sentiment had fallen to very low levels.

https://imgur.com/ScxCz01


Added this QCOM example as I was rolling through TI charts today. I placed a horizontal line where I believe significant S?R likely exists. QCOM blasted through this price level this morning and is up in a down market.

https://imgur.com/IITSMcg

[Yodean]

*****

I've been experimenting with the lumber/gold ratio for a few years now. It's a fairly decent sentiment indicator. Values of less than 0.25 - 0.30 or so usually lead to or are coincident with tradable equity market bottoms, roughly.

We've been in that range for some time now.

As always with these types of indicators, how to execute specifically in terms of trades is another challenge altogether ...i.e. do you wait for a bit while the L/G ratio is < 0.30 for some time before buying equities, or do you wait for the L/G ratio to break above 0.30 and confirm above, etc.?

Harry put together the above chart recently. There appears to be some type of bull flag forming, and there's a bit of a positive RSI divergence.

[MarkD]

I find it interesting you use this for equity bottoms. Thanks! I will add to my watch list.

[Cinnamon]

I find it interesting you use this for equity bottoms. Thanks! I will add to my watch list.

When I emailed SOL a few weeks ago about using different ETFs or indices to help with spotting extreme patterns he mentioned that an interesting combination is to plot a bearish like TQQQ vs SQQQ, I must have deleted the chart as the image he sent was quite interesting. SOL if you have time could you post an updated version of the TQQQ/SQQQ ratio chart

[outof thebox]

There are many secondary tools or indicators one can use. The Kansas financial stress index is very good and Sol mentioned that. Downside is that you have to be patient to wait for extreme moves and that can takes years sometimes.

Sentiment is good also but it produces the best results when the market is trading at extreme points Highly overbought or highly oversold. Strangely the extreme combo works better in terms of predicting market bottoms.

[Do-or-Die]

Based on this chart, the US consumer is far from happy. Energy prices are trending lower, housing prices dropping, companies are cutting back on hiring and the Fed is fighting supply side inflation. odds are over 90 percent they will overshoot





We should reach a serious inflection point in a few months. So 2023 could really be the time when the market puts in a long term bottom or not and then it would be back to the drawing board. I wonder if Santa will come this Christmas or maybe the PTB will kidnap him?

IPO's set a new record in 2021, and now they are at almost a record low.

[SOL]

Treasuries Liquidity Problem Exposes Fed to ‘Biggest Nightmare’

It’s getting harder and harder to buy and sell Treasuries in large quantities without those trades moving the market. Market depth, as the measure is known, last Thursday hit the worst level since the throes of the Covid-19 crisis in the spring of 2020, when the Federal Reserve was forced into massive intervention.

“We have seen an appreciable and troubling deterioration in Treasury market liquidity,” said Krishna Guha, head of central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.

When the Treasuries market broke down amid a panicked rush into dollar cash in March 2020, the Fed swooped in as buyer of last resort. And while it now has a backstop facility allowing the exchange of Treasuries for cash, volatility, if extreme enough, could still force the Fed into action, observers said.

That’s particularly awkward now, when policymakers are not only raising interest rates but actively shrinking the portfolio of Treasuries. So-called quantitative tightening is supposed to be playing an “important role” in tightening monetary policy, as part of the central bank’s battle to contain inflation.

“The biggest nightmare for the Fed now is that they have to step in and buy debt,” said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities. “If the Fed has to step in -- when it’s in conflict to monetary policy -- it really puts them in a bind,” she said. “That’s why I think regulators need to fix the market structure.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treas ... 00072.html

The Fed might be forced to pivot like BOE and BOJ. If they pivot, that would reveal the hypocrisy of their inflation-fighting mandate

[MarkD]

Here's a stock chart I really like atm. It displays price bars using Equivolume, width is relative volume in this method, and indicates where differences in accumulation/distribution are taking place between price over time.

https://imgur.com/Dimu3nG