Interim Update Dec 4, 2022

[chippermon]

Several of the stocks in the TI list are being removed from the Nasdaq tomorrow.
I am wondering if I should dump them at a loss. Here is the complete list of seven: VRSN, SPLK, BIDU, MTCH, DOCU, NTES, SWKS.

I can't seem to find any information on this, Where did you see this?

[LoriPrecisely]

Several of the stocks in the TI list are being removed from the Nasdaq tomorrow.
I am wondering if I should dump them at a loss. Here is the complete list of seven: VRSN, SPLK, BIDU, MTCH, DOCU, NTES, SWKS.

I can't seem to find any information on this, Where did you see this?

https://www.yahoo.com/now/annual-change ... 00754.html

[chippermon]

Several of the stocks in the TI list are being removed from the Nasdaq tomorrow.
I am wondering if I should dump them at a loss. Here is the complete list of seven: VRSN, SPLK, BIDU, MTCH, DOCU, NTES, SWKS.

I can't seem to find any information on this, Where did you see this?

https://www.yahoo.com/now/annual-change ... 00754.html

Oh. I see. Thanks. Yeah, they're getting dropped from the NASDAQ 100. I don't think that's a reason to dump them.

[SOL]

I can't seem to find any information on this, Where did you see this?

https://www.yahoo.com/now/annual-change ... 00754.html

Oh. I see. Thanks. Yeah, they're getting dropped from the NASDAQ 100. I don't think that's a reason to dump them.

It just means they are being replaced on the Nas 100 index, might be some volatility as funds rebalance to account for this change. However, VRSN, BIDU, NTES, and SWKS are not on our list

[Budge]

https://www.yahoo.com/now/annual-change ... 00754.html

Oh. I see. Thanks. Yeah, they're getting dropped from the NASDAQ 100. I don't think that's a reason to dump them.

It just means they are being replaced on the Nas 100 index, might be some volatility as funds rebalance to account for this change. However, VRSN, BIDU, NTES, and SWKS are not on our list

Wait for the dust to settle after the change on the 19th then the contrarian play: buy the outs, sell the ins.

[LoriPrecisely]

Oh. I see. Thanks. Yeah, they're getting dropped from the NASDAQ 100. I don't think that's a reason to dump them.

It just means they are being replaced on the Nas 100 index, might be some volatility as funds rebalance to account for this change. However, VRSN, BIDU, NTES, and SWKS are not on our list

Wait for the dust to settle after the change on the 19th then the contrarian play: buy the outs, sell the ins.

Unfortunately, I have 200 shares of MTCH with a 40% loss. A few times I have sold covered calls against them to lower my cost basis, but I have to chose a strike closer to the market price, which is far from my purchase price. I don't really want them to be called away at a loss, but am re-thinking that now.

[SOL]

It just means they are being replaced on the Nas 100 index, might be some volatility as funds rebalance to account for this change. However, VRSN, BIDU, NTES, and SWKS are not on our list

Wait for the dust to settle after the change on the 19th then the contrarian play: buy the outs, sell the ins.

Unfortunately, I have 200 shares of MTCH with a 40% loss. A few times I have sold covered calls against them to lower my cost basis, but I have to chose a strike closer to the market price, which is far from my purchase price. I don't really want them to be called away at a loss, but am re-thinking that now.

MTCH performed very well for us in our first two forays; the third one is where things got sticky. However, unless the meat market Oops I meant the dating market grinds to a complete halt, it will resume its upward trend. Having said that, I have had shares that were called away.

I put the following strategy into play
I would either buy the shares again and start the processing of selling calls again.
If I owned more than 100 shares, say, for example, 400. I would buy 200 shares and sell covered calls; on the other 200, I would sell puts. Sometimes the puts fetched a higher return. Eric, I think, best expressed this strategy.

Rinse and repeat

all over again.

[jonnyfrank]

I realize most don't like to look at FED news and how it impacts the markets, but today is super ugly.

[chippermon]

I realize most don't like to look at FED news and how it impacts the markets, but today is super ugly.

Maybe it's just never been very good or it's impacts have been too manipulated.

If you look back to the beginning of August at all of the PCE and CPI releases there was incredible movement in equities on those days. Huge one day moves. Very intense speculation. Downward moves after each release August to October, following the trend, then upward moves October to December. market in uptrend. The talk of the town. The gossip mill. What's the Fed doing? Blah, blah, blah. Everybody waiting on pins and needles. Even live coverage in awards show style to get the crowd worked up.

But after all, in the scheme of things, one months data offers little valuable information going forward. The FED is more concerned about the next three years.

Of course this week's softer CPI print moved the market but could not hold the early momentum and has done little, maybe nothing, to improve risk sentiment. Maybe a change to a new narrative has occurred.

Consider this. Maybe the expectations of the imminent reversal of liquidity from the US Treasury drawing down its account with the Fed, which has added hundreds of billions of USD in liquidity in recent weeks is the new focus.

I found this chart today

[Triplethought]

I realize most don't like to look at FED news and how it impacts the markets, but today is super ugly.

Not true in my case. I specifically have embraced a "don't fight the FED" outlook starting in august of 2022 when I realized it was stupid to deny that the trend was decidedly down for the year. At that time on Aug 16th I took what profits I could. Then in Dec 6-12th I took what losses I felt I had to in order to have more cash for next year.

When the FED reverses course or stays neutral for a while I will consider buying back into the market. In the meantime I will continue to assume the mid term trend (say 100 to 200 day moving average) will be down.

We've been trending down for first 8-9 months of 2022. But so far from oct 1 thru now the trend seems to be generally up. That's true of S&P, Dow, and nasdaq. So the question is will that continue in the face of the FED deliberately trying to slow the market? Yodean says stocks to the moon. But at this point I believe the FED.

[Budge]

Inertia rules.

Over the years, I'd read a suggestion and then set up a spreadsheet to track it. Sometimes I go back and check. One spreadsheet I set up was prompted by reading yet again about Dogs of the Dow. As I'd looked at the Dogs before I decided to adapt the spreadsheet by using MACD.

In August 2020, I took the Dow thirty and ranked them all by MACD numbers and set it up to test performance of the 5 and 10 lowest (the Dogs) and the 5 and 10 highest (the Beasts). For comparison's sake I kept track of major indices and ETFs as well.

Having set up the spreadsheet, I then forgot about it. However, the talk of the recent reorg in Nasdaq prompted me to dig through my files. Here's the performances as of earlier today.

[Yodean]

Yodean says stocks to the moon. But at this point I believe the FED.

Indeed, there is no stopping the trend now - stocks are going to the moon, but first a brief stop at the space station.

We've got options expiry tmrw, markets are digesting this week's CPI and FedSpeak. Maybe a bit of the tax loss harvesting bit. Maybe TSLA leading next leg up, as it's showing some +ve divergence at the moment, as per fellow sub SlickChipper.

We are currently experiencing a volatile transition in equity markets from a big bear market to a neonatal bull.

Generally, during a bear market, the markets trend down, with occasional sharp rallies that fail. In a bull market, the reverse holds sway - markets trend up, with occasional quick, abrupt drawdowns that fail to the downside.

We're going through that transition now - from bear market to bull market. Hence today's selling climax.

It's going to be uncomfortable - just like the birth of a real baby bull - but now's the time to accumulate.

I've put over $200k of USD margin into the markets yesterday and today ... while also Spinning the Wheel.

Bears are doomed!

[SOL]

Quant programs are kicking in also. Many are set to automatically short if the SP500 breaks below the 3900 to 3915 range. These programs short very aggressively, so when the selling pressure dries up, it can create a suction-type effect to the upside. In other words, the reversal can be quite fast if retail investors don't hop onto the shorting the market bandwagon

[bpcw]

No Santa rally. Stocks could soon retest their lows, strategists and analysts say https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1603474456323702784

It's ok the Santa rally is back on based on this headline above!

[Cinnamon]

'Big Short' Michael Burry Sends an Alarming Warning to Investors

The legendary investor has just posted a message that might discourage investors from buying stocks.

'I Wasn't Buying WorldCom'
"Early 2002, investors were asking me why i wasn't buying WorldCom," the legendary investor posted on Twitter. "Feels like that now."

He didn't provide further details, like giving the names of today "WorldComs."

https://www.thestreet.com/technology/bi ... _ven=YAHOO

Maybe another contrarian sign that we will rally to the moon or maybe at least to the space station