Interim Update Dec 19, 2022

[Yodean]

However, when the dollar drops bank stocks tend to pop first and then Tech stocks.

Yeh, I dipped my small left toe into the banking sector and bought my 1st 100 shares of BAC today, coincidentally. Will continue to accumulate a more significant HODL position on dips and continue to take some profits on tech stocks as my base case is a very bullish January to April. And of course, selling covered calls on the shares position.

The banking sector looks ripe for a nice bullish run over the next 5 to 10 years. It's taken a beating, and nobody seems to be talking about it very much. Plus, risk parity - which just had its worst year in like, forever - is likely returning next year, and this should favour banks, with relative steepening of the yield curve.

USD likely to spend time between 99 and 109, prolly mostly between 102 and 106, during January to April.

Stocks going up!

My personal JBS (Jesus Buying Signal) was triggered when both Centdude and YoungAnakin publicly, and relatively confidently, announced their bearish stance recently, within days of each other. This has never happened before, to my best recollection.

The JBS is basically Jesus coming up to me and telling me to buy stocks. Of course, I'd been buying before this, and should have waited for the JBS to be triggered.

Hallelujah! Allahu Ackbar!

[MarkD]

So I am hoping Sol suggests some foreign securities, likely ADRs, which can be used as the dollar slumps beginning sometime in 23.

If I had to suggest one country's ADR's it would be Japan. The Yen has taken a beating like no other currency, so it will do well when the dollar drops. Others that look good are select companies in China and Europe. However, when the dollar drops bank stocks tend to pop first and then Tech stocks.

Another issue to understand in the grand scheme of things is that this war against passive investors is to scare a huge portion of the populace to sign away their rights by agreeing to universal income. Remember how covid popped out of nowhere, so don't be surprised by this.

If Inflation is such a big issue, then why has Oil not taken out its all-time high? Supply-side issues created almost all these inflationary forces.



The money supply has gone insane since 2008, yet the current high in oil does not match the high in 2008, which indicates that inflation in the true sense is not an issue because oil should have surged at least to 240 on an inflation-adjusted basis. What the PTB does is control the supply; there is really no demand issue.

Passive investors may also elect annuities; fixed (which might actually begin to pay a bit more for fixed products due to the run up in the dollar) or equity indexed (pay a minimum annual % as guaranteed return but cap max return (excess going to issuer of the policy).

I mentioned previously that I am retired and have sources of income from several former employers plus social security. My question is whether or not they may force retirees to swap Social Security for UBI, and the added detriments it will entail. Thoughts?

[Centeron631]

was wondering here if TI has now changed its outlook on the usd in that last stated it was still on its way up ( i do not know where i get the figure in my head of 120 and if that is not imaginary what does the figure mean - is it against another currency?
Secondly wondering if there is going to be an attack on passive investing like QQQ should one be getting rid of it now? I am steeped in this investment. thks

[SOL]

was wondering here if TI has now changed its outlook on the usd in that last stated it was still on its way up ( i do not know where i get the figure in my head of 120 and if that is not imaginary what does the figure mean - is it against another currency?
Secondly wondering if there is going to be an attack on passive investing like QQQ should one be getting rid of it now? I am steeped in this investment. thks

Nothing has changed regarding the outlook for the USD it is still expected to run higher in 2023 before putting in a top. Passive investing refers to buying and holding, not buying and selling and then rebuying and selling again. There is nothing wrong with the QQQ; it is just we feel that those that buy and hold and assume that index investing will work are going to run into trouble,

[Jaz]

was wondering here if TI has now changed its outlook on the usd in that last stated it was still on its way up ( i do not know where i get the figure in my head of 120 and if that is not imaginary what does the figure mean - is it against another currency?
Secondly wondering if there is going to be an attack on passive investing like QQQ should one be getting rid of it now? I am steeped in this investment. thks

Nothing has changed regarding the outlook for the USD it is still expected to run higher in 2023 before putting in a top. Passive investing refers to buying and holding, not buying and selling and then rebuying and selling again. There is nothing wrong with the QQQ; it is just we feel that those that buy and hold and assume that index investing will work are going to run into trouble,

No matter how the SP500, or the Nasdaq do, I am confident most 'Investors' will still underperform the Indices. They're not skilled or patient enough. I maintain a 50/50 split between stocks and ETFs. To quote Munger/Buffet, 'the professionals can't even win at their own game'.

AS long as overall earnings grow, then the Indices will rise. It will be the same story as it's always been. The few and largest companies in the Index will produce the lions share of earnings growth.

And there's already been an attack on Passive investing ever since Bogle launched Vanguard in the 70's. It's all vested interest.

A lot of talk about the Nasdaq. This is what sort of price action I think we're going to see -



I've been reading, and re-reading Stan Weinsteins 'Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, using stage analysis. The booked never really worked in the 2010's, as we never experienced a Bear Market. But following the examples in the book, Market is very likely in late state of Stage 4, and transitioning to Stage 1. If no one knows who Stan Weinstein is, and stage analysis, then this makes me happy. As, something tends not to work when when too many know of something.

For example, when a stock price hit a trend line for the 4th time, it tended to breakthrough, whether that was up or down. Now, it tends to happen on the 5th or 6th!

By the way, does anyone notice the bearish calls get more and more bearish, as the market flips to bearish, even though it is not making new lows?

I like the NAsdaq better than S&P. Energy Stocks trading like Oil is already at at $150. The big consumer staples like JNJ, and PG look very expensive relative to their growth.

[chippermon]

was wondering here if TI has now changed its outlook on the usd in that last stated it was still on its way up ( i do not know where i get the figure in my head of 120 and if that is not imaginary what does the figure mean - is it against another currency?

Here's a little primer for you on DX.



More info here. https://www.theice.com/index

[outof thebox]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

Jonny when you start to complain and especially if another newbie joins you, in this case it was lori, it almost always means that a short term rally is coming. Look at Thursday and Yesterday. In both cases I made some coin buying UDOW. On Thursday the Dow clawed its way back when it was down 766 or more. yesterday it closed in the green. This is not meant as an attack as the mommy video comeback from you was quite good. I am just saying the two of you make for good contrarian indicators.


This is psycho market I have never seen anything like it before, but I am starting to see how paying attention to psychology can help a bit.

[AstuteShift]

Now is the perfect time to study the ellipsis manual down to a T

The more misery and pain, the better the opportunity. That’s it

[Centeron631]

"Sol wrote: There is nothing wrong with the QQQ; it is just we feel that those that buy and hold and assume that index investing will work are going to run into trouble,

Jaz wroter: No matter how the SP500, or the Nasdaq do, I am confident most 'Investors' will still underperform the Indices. They're not skilled or patient enough centerdude is this alluding to that when the market goes way down that they panick and sell and dont get back soon enuf as in timing the market?. I maintain a 50/50 split between stocks and ETFs. To quote Munger/Buffet, 'the professionals can't even win at their own game'. centredude: is this referencing that M/B believe that passive etf's will outperform most active fund managers even the hi paid hedge fund active managers as Buffet has proven with his famous bet?

AS long as overall earnings grow, then the Indices will rise. It will be the same story as it's always been. The few and largest companies in the Index will produce the lions share of earnings growth.

And there's already been an attack on Passive investing ever since Bogle launched Vanguard in the 70's. It's all vested interest."

So i, a Canadian, am into passive top notch index usa etf's non- ptp's ( i hope as i do not see em on the brokers 1446 lists) in a huge amount certainly at least 50% of my estate pre my TI days and from what u say i assume u intend to keep on keep on holding them (mine are mostly in non-registered account) no matter the noise against them?

Regarding tracking the usd just after my querry I discovered DXY etf that seems to do the trick

[Jaz]

I maintain a 50/50 split between stocks and ETFs. To quote Munger/Buffet, 'the professionals can't even win at their own game'. centredude: is this referencing that M/B believe that passive etf's will outperform most active fund managers even the hi paid hedge fund active managers as Buffet has proven with his famous bet?

Buffet is alluding to the fact that the Majority of Active Fund Managers will NOT outperform the SP500 over the long term, so what makes you think you can?.

I don't know what Buffet's famous bet, is.

Read Bogle's book, and Warren Buffett's commentary of Benjamins Intelligent Investor. They both lay out the facts. Bogle is (was) obviously biased, but what he presents is factual.

[Yodean]

Buffet is alluding to the fact that the Majority of Active Fund Managers will NOT outperform the SP500 over the long term, so what makes you think you can?.

This is true.

The only thing I would add about Buffet that's perhaps somewhat interesting and not particularly well-known is that before Berkshire was a publicly-accessible investment holding company - when Warren ran his own private investment partnership - Buffet was a very active trader, selling a lot near tops and waiting in cash before buying the bottoms.

[Jaz]

Buffet is alluding to the fact that the Majority of Active Fund Managers will NOT outperform the SP500 over the long term, so what makes you think you can?.

This is true.

The only thing I would add about Buffet that's perhaps somewhat interesting and not particularly well-known is that before Berkshire was a publicly-accessible investment holding company - when Warren ran his own private investment partnership - Buffet was a very active trader, selling a lot near tops and waiting in cash before buying the bottoms.

Interesting. I did not know that. Did it get too difficult to continue cashing out at the top, and buying the bottom?

This presumably would have been the days before Algorithms, and when the Central Banks didn't intervene so much to distort the picture. Blowing bubbles here, there and everywhere.

[jonnyfrank]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

Jonny when you start to complain and especially if another newbie joins you, in this case it was lori, it almost always means that a short term rally is coming. Look at Thursday and Yesterday. In both cases I made some coin buying UDOW. On Thursday the Dow clawed its way back when it was down 766 or more. yesterday it closed in the green. This is not meant as an attack as the mommy video comeback from you was quite good. I am just saying the two of you make for good contrarian indicators.


This is psycho market I have never seen anything like it before, but I am starting to see how paying attention to psychology can help a bit.

My post was not a complaint. It was simply a way to create some dialogue among the many including SOL. I have noticed when the markets get particularly "psycho" the best contributors tend to get quieter than church mice. Like or not, the post had the desired effect. But to classify it as a "complaint"...nah. What I ask here is usually in relation to my ST portfolio, and the input ALWAYS teaches me something or allows me the benefit of a different perspective. The psychology verdict is in and you nailed it: this market is PSYCHO indeed! Well played!

[Yodean]

Interesting. I did not know that. Did it get too difficult to continue cashing out at the top, and buying the bottom?

This presumably would have been the days before Algorithms, and when the Central Banks didn't intervene so much to distort the picture. Blowing bubbles here, there and everywhere.

I didn't do an extremely deep dive into Warren's methodology of his younger days when he was much more of an active trader (vs. HODLer like now in terms of Berkshire) - just enough to know he did sell and buy fairly frequently.

I think he stuck with businesses he understood, and based a lot of his trades on his own analysis of a company's fair valuations. So he sold when a business he understood well became expensive, and bought when he thought a business with good prospects was really cheap.

Seemed like a big "fundamental valuations" type of guy - in some ways, prolly similar to your current style of investing, I am guessing.

Sounds Captain Obvious now, but I think back in Buffet's younger days (before widely-available internet information flow), it wasn't considered as mainstream to trade this way.

He also had his fair share of losses early on in his trading career - in this respect he is no different than most of us.

Once he became more and more successful, another quality that seemed to emerge was his immunity to both FOMO near market tops and also FOGU (Fear Of Going Under) near market bottoms.

He stuck to businesses, sectors he felt he understood really well, and ignored everything else.

Once Berkshire became established and Buffet became a bit of a brand, I think he was so rich he could kind of just play it safe, and just sit back and enter trades that didn't have a lot of risk, and with which he prolly had some form of "advanced" (*cough* insider *cough*) knowledge.

But as you know, I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist.

[Jaz]

Interesting. I did not know that. Did it get too difficult to continue cashing out at the top, and buying the bottom?

This presumably would have been the days before Algorithms, and when the Central Banks didn't intervene so much to distort the picture. Blowing bubbles here, there and everywhere.

I didn't do an extremely deep dive into Warren's methodology of his younger days when he was much more of an active trader (vs. HODLer like now in terms of Berkshire) - just enough to know he did sell and buy fairly frequently.

I think he stuck with businesses he understood, and based a lot of his trades on his own analysis of a company's fair valuations. So he sold when a business he understood well became expensive, and bought when he thought a business with good prospects was really cheap.

Seemed like a big "fundamental valuations" type of guy - in some ways, prolly similar to your current style of investing, I am guessing.

Sounds Captain Obvious now, but I think back in Buffet's younger days (before widely-available internet information flow), it wasn't considered as mainstream to trade this way.

He also had his fair share of losses early on in his trading career - in this respect he is no different than most of us.

Once he became more and more successful, another quality that seemed to emerge was his immunity to FOMO near market tops and FOGU (Fear Of Going Under) near market bottoms.

He stuck to businesses, sectors he felt he understood really well, and ignored everything else.

Once Berkshire became established and Buffet became a bit of a brand, I think he was so rich he could kind of just play it safe, and just sit back and enter trades that didn't have a lot of risk, and with which he prolly had some form of "advanced" (*cough* insider *cough*) knowledge.

But as you know, I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist.

In the very early days of his Career, his strategy was to buy companies trading below book value, and that was it. You're essentially buying the company for Free. At a price you wouldn't even be able to buy it in the real world (i.e a non-listed company). Valuations are subjective, but even a Child should be able to see a company which is generally profitable should be worth more than it's Asset minus Liabilities.

Such a strategy will still definitely work IMO.

MU @ $44. INTC @ $25 are two examples.

Another strategy, is buying Dividend payers when the Yield hits the 5-6% level (INTC,IBM, and previously CAT). So long as they have a history of paying and increasing Dividends, and likely to continue doing so, it's not going to stay at that level for long.

The same such company, after having had a good run makes no sense to be happy receiving a 2% Dividend when you brought it when it was paying 6%. This is where CATerpillar stock sits right now. I keep asking why would anyone be buying CAT at these levels for it's 2% Dividend?. Highly cyclical company.