harryg wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:30 am
Risk tolerance is how much you are willing to lose. That's it.
I wanted to say that but I said it will sound so much better coming from Harry, I am almost gave up but then like a ninja coming out of slumber you delivered the home shot. Now, all we need is a good skit to go with that.
People that understand what you do, also understand how hard it is for our team or me to come up with universal risk parameters.
FYI I have a very high-risk threshold when it comes to everything. Hey for crying out loud I walked in MS-13 and worse gang areas in Nicaragua and Honduras just to show that I could do it without provoking anyone by using MP as my guide. Would I do it again, most likely not, but that was about 13 years ago and in some areas my risk tolerance bordered on the insane.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
harryg wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:30 am
Risk tolerance is how much you are willing to lose. That's it.
I wanted to say that but I said it will sound so much better coming from Harry, I am almost gave up but then like a ninja coming out of slumber you delivered the home shot. Now, all we need is a good skit to go with that.
People that understand what you do, also understand how hard it is for our team or me to come up with universal risk parameters.
FYI I have a very high-risk threshold when it comes to everything. Hey for crying out loud I walked in MS-13 and worse gang areas in Nicaragua and Honduras just to show that I could do it without provoking anyone by using MP as my guide. Would I do it again, most likely not, but that was about 13 years ago and in some areas my risk tolerance bordered on the insane.
And also with matters of health, you've experimented where doctor's would have told you you were crazy, and you've benefited and advised other's who have benefited.
Risk can be a perception, people have perceived the stock market to be a high risk in the past but if you had put money in 40 years ago you would have made a mint and as you've stated a million times, looking at a long timeframe chart every correction/crash is a blip now.
You would be told by any doctor that you're risking your life by not taking conventional cancer treatment, trust our tried and tested method of destroying your immune system with chemotherapy and radiotherapy which oh by the way causes cancer and oh most people die after treatment but we'll blame that on something else to do with the original cancer or some secondary cancer not remotely linked to our carcinogenic methods, build your immune system up with a healthy diet, avoid toxins and take cancer reducing natural substances, no no that's totally high risk!
The person without the Spirit does not accept the things that come from the Spirit of God but considers them foolishness, and cannot understand them because they are discerned only through the Spirit.
The only legitimate fear is not doing your best to live up to your potential, whatever that may be, in and out of the markets.
That's it.
Most fear the sudden caress of Ms. Death - fair enough, seems reasonable - but secretly, in the darkest, most denied parts of themselves, what they resent and fear most is meeting the person they could have been.
Risk tolerance (RT) is important to study and assess in oneself, of course, and I'll try not to echo too much what other TIT subs have already posted.
You need experience both winning and losing to truly understand your level of RT, both in and out of the markets. This only comes with time and dedicated self-study, etc., as well as, well, lots of experience.
A lot of investors, often those with a decent amount of experience, are ruled by fear of loss (i.e. PTSD of losing in the markets from previous experiences), so they become "broken" traders/investors, as this insidious PTSD negatively affects their ability to trade and invest.
They hide their own suppressed fear behind the usual rhetoric like, "you're just gambling here," or "it's not really an investment," etc., simply because these PTSD traders themselves cannot handle the fear of losing, but what they really fear is when the so-called "gambler" turns out to be right and makes millions.
I've seen tons and tons of these types of PTSD-FUD investors-traders over the years. Sure, a certain % of them achieve a modicum level of mediocre success, both in and out of the markets. But they are generally, well, mediocre, at best.
Ultimately, it really comes down to the WIM (Woman In the Mirror).
I don't think investing and risk tolerance, just like a lot of things in life, can be taught. But they may be learned.
>8/9 will always end up losing, when all this said and done, no matter what "System" she used.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
hooligan wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:54 pm
I'm long in SPY calls right now so don't take my question as bearish fear.
But I'm curious.
The prevailing wisdom is that markets climb a wall of fear and plunge off a cliff of joy.
but here is what I'm wondering:
if enough of retail picks up on that, would the powers that be Reverse that correlation?
Intentionally?
Or maybe oscillate it?
I ask because "buy the dip" is more and more of a prevalent meme across the retail investor internet social media zones.
Best
Passive investors are going to get hammered because buying the dip does not equate to using the dip to buy the right companies. The masses let other so-called experts do the passive investing. What do these experts do? They chase high flyers of today who will temporarily become the low flyers of tomorrow. But as they have to prove they know what they are doing they keep churning the account instead of holding onto them. Imagine how these traders will feel if the indices do nothing for an extended period. Most investors are not active, buying the dip as an active investor entails work and that is something this "woke culture" is allergic to so they are going to be taken to the cleaners (over the long run).
Now take it a step further imagine these fund managers were manipulated by the big players do their bidding, manipulation is very easy in today's environment, then these top players work is now 10X easier. Instead of having to individually convince those with the mass mindset to buy or sell, all they have to do is convince those that manage the money of millions to buy and sell as they please. This is why we warned volatility levels would rise this year and that trading this year was moving into the battle of the trenches phase.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Despite the proliferation of online brokerage websites and apps that can facilitate frequent trading, U.S. investors -- which Gallup defines as adults with at least $10,000 invested in stocks or bonds -- are drawn mainly to hands-off investing strategies.
71% of U.S. investors say index funds work better than stock-picking
89% say "time in the market" is better strategy than "timing the market"
Few individual stock investors (19%) trade frequently; most rarely do
The large majority of investors say that "passive investing" (71%) is superior to "active investing" (29%) to maximize returns over the long term.
Most investors believe that "time in the market" (89%) is a more important factor than "timing the market" (11%) to achieving high returns.
Four in five investors who own individual stocks (82%) say they trade stocks no more than a few times a year, including 22% who say they never do. The remaining one in five trade more frequently, but most of these say they trade monthly rather than daily or weekly.
These findings come from the latest Gallup Investor Optimism Index survey, conducted June 22-29. The $10,000 threshold for adults to qualify for the survey includes investments in stocks, bonds or mutual funds, either within or outside of a retirement account. Approximately four in 10 U.S. adults meet this criterion.
hooligan wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:54 pm
I'm long in SPY calls right now so don't take my question as bearish fear.
But I'm curious.
The prevailing wisdom is that markets climb a wall of fear and plunge off a cliff of joy.
but here is what I'm wondering:
if enough of retail picks up on that, would the powers that be Reverse that correlation?
Intentionally?
Or maybe oscillate it?
I ask because "buy the dip" is more and more of a prevalent meme across the retail investor internet social media zones.
Best
Isn't it that the ptb want to fleece the majority of the masses, they know they can't catch all of them. Sentiment figures give us a good indicator of the masses current physiological status, if they are bullish they will mainly be in the markets and if bearish mainly in cash waiting or shorting. The ptb sell as sentiment is very bullish for an extended period as the masses are buying and they buy when sentiment is bearish as the masses are selling at the lows. Why would they change the strategy that works apart from more volatility that shakes more of the masses into selling (the weak bulls). The only thing that would throw us is if the sentiment figures were wrong.
The buy the dip memes, are they a large majority or a small percentage of outspoken individuals that have learnt how it works but as the number of individuals grow and are conned near the end of the year that we should keep buying the dip, the ptb will cause a massacre. The sentiment figures should reflect that even when the markets are correcting bullish figures remain high, the ptb cause the markets to trend down further and further with periods of the bullish weeks to con the masses further until the masses eventually start to relent and give in to fear, they have no more cash to deploy and buy the continuing dips, they sell to keep what little they have left or have nothing as they've used gearing or margin, and again we see it reflected in the sentiment figures and when their very bearish or neutral for an extended period, then bang the bull starts again and the masses are left languishing.
The ptb need the masses to buy when they're selling and sell when they're buying, as Sol says, the equation has to balance. That's why they have to con the masses, and having more money they need more participants with more money on the other side of the equation.
Have I got this completely wrong or partially wrong, master jedi and super ninja's!
The person without the Spirit does not accept the things that come from the Spirit of God but considers them foolishness, and cannot understand them because they are discerned only through the Spirit.
bpcw wrote: ↑Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:40 am
Isn't it that the ptb want to fleece the majority of the masses, they know they can't catch all of them. Sentiment figures give us a good indicator of the masses current physiological status, if they are bullish they will mainly be in the markets and if bearish mainly in cash waiting or shorting. The ptb sell as sentiment is very bullish for an extended period as the masses are buying and they buy when sentiment is bearish as the masses are selling at the lows. Why would they change the strategy that works apart from more volatility that shakes more of the masses into selling (the weak bulls). The only thing that would throw us is if the sentiment figures were wrong.
The buy the dip memes, are they a large majority or a small percentage of outspoken individuals that have learnt how it works but as the number of individuals grow and are conned near the end of the year that we should keep buying the dip, the ptb will cause a massacre. The sentiment figures should reflect that even when the markets are correcting bullish figures remain high, the ptb cause the markets to trend down further and further with periods of the bullish weeks to con the masses further until the masses eventually start to relent and give in to fear, they have no more cash to deploy and buy the continuing dips, they sell to keep what little they have left or have nothing as they've used gearing or margin, and again we see it reflected in the sentiment figures and when their very bearish or neutral for an extended period, then bang the bull starts again and the masses are left languishing.
The ptb need the masses to buy when they're selling and sell when they're buying, as Sol says, the equation has to balance. That's why they have to con the masses, and having more money they need more participants with more money on the other side of the equation.
Have I got this completely wrong or partially wrong, master jedi and super ninja's!
Pretty much on the money. I remember Buffett saying something like that its getting hard to find good deals and this was shortly after the COVID crash, and he is flush with money. What he was saying was people were not lining up and calling him like they did in the housing crash of 2009 because the supply of money had risen so much that he was just one of many sources. There is at least 10X more money out there now then during crash of 2009 if not 20X and that takes time to deploy. It went up at least 3 to 5X after COVID
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
hooligan wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:54 pm
I'm long in SPY calls right now so don't take my question as bearish fear.
But I'm curious.
The prevailing wisdom is that markets climb a wall of fear and plunge off a cliff of joy.
but here is what I'm wondering:
if enough of retail picks up on that, would the powers that be Reverse that correlation?
Intentionally?
Or maybe oscillate it?
I ask because "buy the dip" is more and more of a prevalent meme across the retail investor internet social media zones.
Best
Isn't it that the ptb want to fleece the majority of the masses, they know they can't catch all of them. Sentiment figures give us a good indicator of the masses current physiological status, if they are bullish they will mainly be in the markets and if bearish mainly in cash waiting or shorting. The ptb sell as sentiment is very bullish for an extended period as the masses are buying and they buy when sentiment is bearish as the masses are selling at the lows. Why would they change the strategy that works apart from more volatility that shakes more of the masses into selling (the weak bulls). The only thing that would throw us is if the sentiment figures were wrong.
The buy the dip memes, are they a large majority or a small percentage of outspoken individuals that have learnt how it works but as the number of individuals grow and are conned near the end of the year that we should keep buying the dip, the ptb will cause a massacre. The sentiment figures should reflect that even when the markets are correcting bullish figures remain high, the ptb cause the markets to trend down further and further with periods of the bullish weeks to con the masses further until the masses eventually start to relent and give in to fear, they have no more cash to deploy and buy the continuing dips, they sell to keep what little they have left or have nothing as they've used gearing or margin, and again we see it reflected in the sentiment figures and when their very bearish or neutral for an extended period, then bang the bull starts again and the masses are left languishing.
The ptb need the masses to buy when they're selling and sell when they're buying, as Sol says, the equation has to balance. That's why they have to con the masses, and having more money they need more participants with more money on the other side of the equation.
Have I got this completely wrong or partially wrong, master jedi and super ninja's!
PTB want guaranteed trades. Periodically you'll hear about big trading desks having no losing trades in X number of months/years. Lying or cheating. The big manipulators don't shout about it, they just sit in the centre of their spider webs pulling strands here and there.
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
SOL wrote: ↑Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:37 pm
I remember Buffett saying something like that its getting hard to find good deals and this was shortly after the COVID crash, and he is flush with money.
Now in Buffett we'd be talking of, in Yodean's acronymspeak, MM (Master Manipulator).
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
Budge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:50 pm
Now in Buffett we'd be talking of, in Yodean's acronymspeak, MM (Master Manipulator).
To be fair to Warren, he's not the worst. To reach the level of the MM, who gets advance insider info., etc., one still has to work pretty hard and be pretty successful based on one's own efforts before the Big Boys invite you to join their club and investing becomes easier.
It was literally a few decades ago, but I recall watching some type of documentary on Buffet. He was still driving around in a cheap car and living in a cheap house. Could all be propaganda, of course, but he seemed pretty reasonable and down-to-earth, and not at all impressed by money. He seemed to treat money and investing like a game.
I remember the interviewer asking Warren about why he didn't own a yacht. Buffet's response was that one doesn't want to own a yacht - it's just a lot of trouble maintaining it and managing the crew - but one wants to know the person who owns a yacht. That sort of a thing. I thought it was pretty funny, and true.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
Budge wrote: ↑Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:50 pm
Now in Buffett we'd be talking of, in Yodean's acronymspeak, MM (Master Manipulator).
To be fair to Warren, he's not the worst. To reach the level of the MM, who gets advance insider info., etc., one still has to work pretty hard and be pretty successful based on one's own efforts before the Big Boys invite you to join their club and investing becomes easier.
It was literally a few decades ago, but I recall watching some type of documentary on Buffet. He was still driving around in a cheap car and living in a cheap house. Could all be propaganda, of course, but he seemed pretty reasonable and down-to-earth, and not at all impressed by money. He seemed to treat money and investing like a game.
I remember the interviewer asking Warren about why he didn't own a yacht. Buffet's response was that one doesn't want to own a yacht - it's just a lot of trouble maintaining it and managing the crew - but one wants to know the person who owns a yacht. That sort of a thing. I thought it was pretty funny, and true.
IAAA - It's All An Act. He's a MOTCIGS - member of the club in good standing.
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
