Interim Update Dec 19, 2022

[MarkD]

I am getting concerned none of the USA or Canadian members on this forum are are discussing the possibility of frozen pipes or power outages over the next several days.



Actually should have included our friends to the South in Mexico and the Caribbean!

[deepthinker]

I am getting concerned none of the USA or Canadian members on this forum are are discussing the possibility of frozen pipes or power outages over the next several days.



Actually should have included our friends to the South in Mexico and the Caribbean!

Good point. When that happens it's a hell of problem to resolve

[bpcw]

Like you, I sometimes struggle with the cryptic updates. With today's market action I am puzzled by exactly what we should be looking for as well. I understand cash is key, yes. As for the upward move through the rest of December I am not seeing how that will come to fruition. So....you are not alone, rest assured.

I feel the same way about the updates, especially since August. I shake my head and think, "that is the opposite of what was said in the last update".
Maybe the volatility of the market is just too much for a service to be able to make heads or tails of it.
I am following 2 other services now. They are daily services, rather than monthly services. They look at certain sectors, or certain etf's, and play the trend as day trades or swing trades, buying and selling options rather than the stocks themselves.

There is an unpredictability in the short term and one does have to change their position if the markets dictate. TI is more for the medium to long term perspective, and Sol has consistently said so but adds additional commentary for those who wish to play the short term, but always adds that you have to work at it yourself.

I think the bounce we were looking for in the Nasdaq happened from June to August (in hindsight) and we may well see new lows before a final bottom but as we didn't get a significant bounce we may not go a lot lower as sentiment is already pretty low if you look at AAII website and that is before the drop today.

[deepthinker]

I think folks are expecting too much from the update. As I recall the overview is off the cuff. Individuals are supposed to follow the short term and long term views. If you do that, there is really nothing cryptic about the outlook. This is not a day trading service, so you can't compare what day traders would or might do.

However, Team TI was on point, throughout the rally phase, the advice was to take profits and many stocks have hit their targets. As short term trading comes with a lot of risk especially in this enviroment, I decided to opt for the long term view. Compared to Aug and September I am doing a lot better as I had the opportunity to build cash by closing several positions, WMT, HALO (30%), CPB (29%), CRS, MOMO (20%), VALE calls ( I Sold the whole position for a gain of 60%), VALE stock (sold 75%), QCOM calls (Sold the my entire position for close to 70% in gains), ERO (sold it for 40%), BWXT (I got in at a lower price so my gains were close to 20%), SLV (close to 25%), and there are few others. Almost all of these positions were down earlier in the year.

I also took it on my own shoulders to close out the entire position instead of half as I wanted to build up cash. Nothing stops us from choosing our own profit targets. In fact, SOL recommends that every find a profit target for at least half their position. I lowered my targets usually I aim for 50% or more, but I adjusted them based on each play. I also closed ERO on my own as it had moved up very nicely over a short period.

I pay attention to a lot of traders here like MarkD, Chippermon, Astute, Nicolas, Philcc, Pupbabby, and lets not forget Yodean. There are many others I can't remember all their names.

All of them provide interesting viewpoints, but what stands out this that they collectively try to find a way to use information from this service, and other services, personal journals, etc to find a system that works for them. Yodean has balls of steel, and I think as long as he does not go on 100% margin he has pretty good chance of moving to the 10million plus club. I had less than 10% cash in September, but based on all the positions I closed above, I am close to 33% in cash.

It comes down to finding what works for you, and many traders here have provided us with insights. I remember Nicolas stating one of this Uranium holdings was down over 50%, and he held and then went on to back several hundred percentage points in gain.

This year is one of those anomalies, I am using it to learn and my journal is quite full with notes that I am sure I will find useful in the future. FYI i was down close to 47% September-Oct, but while I am still down, its at a much lower number now.

I this is one of my longest posts so I will end here.

[deepthinker]

Like you, I sometimes struggle with the cryptic updates. With today's market action I am puzzled by exactly what we should be looking for as well. I understand cash is key, yes. As for the upward move through the rest of December I am not seeing how that will come to fruition. So....you are not alone, rest assured.

I feel the same way about the updates, especially since August. I shake my head and think, "that is the opposite of what was said in the last update".
Maybe the volatility of the market is just too much for a service to be able to make heads or tails of it.
I am following 2 other services now. They are daily services, rather than monthly services. They look at certain sectors, or certain etf's, and play the trend as day trades or swing trades, buying and selling options rather than the stocks themselves.

There is an unpredictability in the short term and one does have to change their position if the markets dictate. TI is more for the medium to long term perspective, and Sol has consistently said so but adds additional commentary for those who wish to play the short term, but always adds that you have to work at it yourself.

I think the bounce we were looking for in the Nasdaq happened from June to August (in hindsight) and we may well see new lows before a final bottom but as we didn't get a significant bounce we may not go a lot lower as sentiment is already pretty low if you look at AAII website and that is before the drop today.

Should have mentioned you on my list of individuals that I pay attention to. The short term is explosive, that is why I changed my strategy. I am now going to focus on the medium and long term views. The NASDAQ has been a dog, but the Dow bounced a gain and traded past its Aug highs. As soon SOL stated that the Dow was the stronger index I purchased a bit of UDOW and that paid off. However, i used the lower Dow targets or my own analysis to close profitable positions.

I have a lot of red on my Tech stocks, but I think 12-24 months from now, I will be wishing I had more. but for now I will enjoy the fact that my Acid is a lot lower than it was back in September.

[jonnyfrank]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

[MarkD]

I follow Adem Tumerkan and George Dagnino on Twitter to keep up to date on the macro environment. I have read the latter's books and have purchased many of the books recommended by Adem. Scott Grannis (can be found on both twitter and his blog) is another econ type who provides great analysis. These insights provide a historical template for the overall investing environment. This does not greatly influence my investing decisions.

I also study Price Action, the foundation of TA. Anna Coulling's book is great (Volume Price Analysis). Another one to consider is Volume Profile by Trader Dale. Depending on your knowledge of TA, there are a lot of intro books on the topic before the two listed above are useful.

Another follow might be Brian Shannon for AVWAP. If this list is a bit long, well, there's some voluminous topics to consider to unravel the puzzle. But worth it.

An interesting observation are the similarities in price action/pattern between many of the stocks provided this week in MU/Blazer updates. It's a good idea to look at the charts in multi time frames on a single screen. My go to is ACP on stockcharts.com.

But psychology is the cornerstone and key to success.

"If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking."

George S. Patton

It has taken me some time (years tbh) to determine the value of TI's strategy. Now, I can truly say, "I get it". Patience is not my strong suit so it is hoped you can learn more rapidly than me.

[PuppBaby]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

This weeks turmoil is a blessing, the panic and confusion tells me it's time to buy in. There will probably be additional volatility next week but we should see 1-2 of our plays spike 20% gains. So I have rebought some TLT option calls into Feb 17th as I'm convinced its going back to 120+ range with an expectation to sell it end of Jan. I am looking at the LIT and ASANA calls now expiring in April, hoping some more chaos ensues next few hours - days to lower a buy in.

My strategy is doing 2-4 month calls, small plays as I'm not looking to build huge wealth but make some extra cash to invest on the FOAB. The hardest part is selling the plays, timing is key and not for everyone but so far its working for my High Risk account.

For Reference I have 2 accounts Low Risk (30% in Cash) and High Risk (50% in cash). My goal is to get my low risk into 50% cash and High Risk 75% by early Feb. Keeping a close eye on UUP (not an official play), I expect it to turn around mid Jan so a potential buy in opportunity next week.

[chippermon]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

I do find this situation somewhat suspect at the moment. In this environment DXY is not responding like it normally would. I would expect it to be rising. Same for 10 YR yield. Every time gold hits 1820 ish it takes a punch in the nose and goes back into it's hole. I would expect VIX to be somewhat higher also.

One thing that keeps me concerned is APPL being so close to 130. This is a critical juncture for the stock and it will ripple throughout the market if it rips through that.

Right now just sticking to the short term currency crosses, and to be honest there is not much going on there except for JPY shenanigans, and building cash reserves as best I can. Something funny is going on here.

[jonnyfrank]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

I do find this situation somewhat suspect at the moment. In this environment DXY is not responding like it normally would. I would expect it to be rising. Same for 10 YR yield. Every time gold hits 1820 ish it takes a punch in the nose and goes back into it's hole. I would expect VIX to be somewhat higher also.

One thing that keeps me concerned is APPL being so close to 130. This is a critical juncture for the stock and it will ripple throughout the market if it rips through that.

Right now just sticking to the short term currency crosses, and to be honest there is not much going on there except for JPY shenanigans, and building cash reserves as best I can. Something funny is going on here.

I agree that something funny is indeed going on here. If the bear rips through the market next week and brings everything down considerably, I think it would be safe to conclude that the PTB are out to destroy the heart and soul of the common man. I think gold has been manipulated for quite some time now. If the PTB are able to render TA worthless, then yet another tool to profit from the the markets will be null and void, thus rendering more learned helplessness.

[MarkD]

FWIW I might look to buy on a long tail down to that second S/R line around 120-125.

https://imgur.com/V1WEuBR

[SOL]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

I do find this situation somewhat suspect at the moment. In this environment DXY is not responding like it normally would. I would expect it to be rising. Same for 10 YR yield. Every time gold hits 1820 ish it takes a punch in the nose and goes back into it's hole. I would expect VIX to be somewhat higher also.

One thing that keeps me concerned is APPL being so close to 130. This is a critical juncture for the stock and it will ripple throughout the market if it rips through that.

Right now just sticking to the short term currency crosses, and to be honest there is not much going on there except for JPY shenanigans, and building cash reserves as best I can. Something funny is going on here.

When something strange occurs once, it might be a coincidence; when it occurs several times, it's an indication that we are 1-2 selling climaxes away from the bottom. Selling climax entails a down-on-high volume with a significant spike in fear.


Strange things that are going on
VIX is not rising despite strong downward moves; incredibly Strange
Data indicates consumers are positive and spending a lot; this sounds like hogwash.
Energy prices are down; high energy prices play havoc on earnings, but they are down a lot, and nobody is celebrating; this is yet another anomaly

These guys are not here to destroy TA; they are here to destroy the Passive index investor. IRS rule 1443(F) is but the first part. It is going to prevent a lot of foreigners from buying ETFs. Once that is achieved, they can target the next group, the passive investor. Why? Because if you make index investing seem futile you force them to speculate, this creates immense opportunities for the big sharks and astute investors. It's too much to cover here. MarkD, Chippermon and others can fill in some of the holes.

[jonnyfrank]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

I do find this situation somewhat suspect at the moment. In this environment DXY is not responding like it normally would. I would expect it to be rising. Same for 10 YR yield. Every time gold hits 1820 ish it takes a punch in the nose and goes back into it's hole. I would expect VIX to be somewhat higher also.

One thing that keeps me concerned is APPL being so close to 130. This is a critical juncture for the stock and it will ripple throughout the market if it rips through that.

Right now just sticking to the short term currency crosses, and to be honest there is not much going on there except for JPY shenanigans, and building cash reserves as best I can. Something funny is going on here.

When something strange occurs once, it might be a coincidence; when it occurs several times, it's an indication that we are 1-2 selling climaxes away from the bottom. Selling climax entails a down-on-high volume with a significant spike in fear.


Strange things that are going on
VIX is not rising despite strong downward moves; incredibly Strange
Data indicates consumers are positive and spending a lot; this sounds like hogwash.
Energy prices are down; high energy prices play havoc on earnings, but they are down a lot, and nobody is celebrating; this is yet another anomaly

These guys are not here to destroy TA; they are here to destroy the Passive index investor. IRS rule 1443(F) is but the first part. It is going to prevent a lot of foreigners from buying ETFs. Once that is achieved, they can target the next group, the passive investor. Why? Because if you make index investing seem futile you force them to speculate, this creates immense opportunities for the big sharks and astute investors. It's too much to cover here. MarkD, Chippermon and others can fill in some of the holes.

SOL and others,

These are GREAT posts, and offer great value to me and others I suspect. There is so much that is not making textbook sense in the markets, and for the sake of sanity it helps when others chime in to confirm what I am sensing. Thank you for stepping up with this post.

As for the passive investor, that would include those who use 401-k plans as their primary source of investing, and those tend to offer very unsophisticated investment options.

I have been watching VIX for a while now and it has seemed very out of synch.

[MarkD]

Another bloodbath coming today. Can we just call it, SOL? The bear is here with no second bounce....can we call that yet? The NAS failed, and the "leader" DOW is pretty much throwing up the white flag. Thoughts? Input? On weeks like this, it sure would be a good thing to hear something. Not a solution, as we know predicting the future is impossible, but some thoughts on why the market is in turmoil and why the Santa Claus rally is probably not going to happen after all.

I do find this situation somewhat suspect at the moment. In this environment DXY is not responding like it normally would. I would expect it to be rising. Same for 10 YR yield. Every time gold hits 1820 ish it takes a punch in the nose and goes back into it's hole. I would expect VIX to be somewhat higher also.

One thing that keeps me concerned is APPL being so close to 130. This is a critical juncture for the stock and it will ripple throughout the market if it rips through that.

Right now just sticking to the short term currency crosses, and to be honest there is not much going on there except for JPY shenanigans, and building cash reserves as best I can. Something funny is going on here.

When something strange occurs once, it might be a coincidence; when it occurs several times, it's an indication that we are 1-2 selling climaxes away from the bottom. Selling climax entails a down-on-high volume with a significant spike in fear.


Strange things that are going on
VIX is not rising despite strong downward moves; incredibly Strange
Data indicates consumers are positive and spending a lot; this sounds like hogwash.
Energy prices are down; high energy prices play havoc on earnings, but they are down a lot, and nobody is celebrating; this is yet another anomaly

These guys are not here to destroy TA; they are here to destroy the Passive index investor. IRS rule 1443(F) is but the first part. It is going to prevent a lot of foreigners from buying ETFs. Once that is achieved, they can target the next group, the passive investor. Why? Because if you make index investing seem futile you force them to speculate, this creates immense opportunities for the big sharks and astute investors. It's too much to cover here. MarkD, Chippermon and others can fill in some of the holes.

Amazing you brought up passive investing and ETFs. I had this thought process going on for a few days now. One of the issues is the movement over my lifetime into passive index funds. Everyone has them in retirement accounts. Bogle followers have increased exponentially. While everyone is on one side of the boat...

https://www.intuition.com/active-invest ... anagement/

Older data but shows the growing influence of passive. There is no free lunch but a ton of advisors sell this to folks who are too lazy to learn for themselves. Indexing can be accomplished via a book, website, app, no work involved, sufficient time for Tiktok. I have never been a huge fan of holding 100% of funds in index funds. A core of maybe 40-50% but that's the max. The signifigance of massive amounts of money in passive funds provides smart, deviant moneyed folks to use it to steal from regular investors. Sol has noted before how it works. You systematically sell one stock and pump another of similar valuation. The index goes nowhere. Another easy layup now that there's so much passivity in the system.

Funny but true, met a retired fellow who was an RIA or whatever. He honestly confirmed folks don't need advisors. At all. He got wealthy off OPM. Most should just follow Money or Kiplingers magazines to exceed returns from a paid advisor (legalized theft).

1443(F) is simply a form of capital control. You have to accept the fact it's already here and will increase over time to fund the technopolitical oligarchical system of governance we have become in the USA. Foreigners are welcome to play but have to pay.

Now onto another topic of interest. USA Indexers are sold that diversification requires placing a % in foreign stock/bond funds. Sevearl studies show it works over very long periods of time. Not practical imo. But my research did find one gem of data.

https://imgur.com/i2TkSBY

The Reagan USA stock market was great, for folks like me, except the EAFE returns were much greater due to the dollar devaluation for a 2-3 year period. It was a coordinated dollar intervention agreed upon at the Plaza Accord in 1985 (I was stupid at that time and didn't recognize free money was on sale). I haven't found any good info on EMs but suspect they would have done even better.

So I am hoping Sol suggests some foreign securities, likely ADRs, which can be used as the dollar slumps beginning sometime in 23.

[SOL]

So I am hoping Sol suggests some foreign securities, likely ADRs, which can be used as the dollar slumps beginning sometime in 23.

If I had to suggest one country's ADR's it would be Japan. The Yen has taken a beating like no other currency, so it will do well when the dollar drops. Others that look good are select companies in China and Europe. However, when the dollar drops bank stocks tend to pop first and then Tech stocks.

Another issue to understand in the grand scheme of things is that this war against passive investors is to scare a huge portion of the populace to sign away their rights by agreeing to universal income. Remember how covid popped out of nowhere, so don't be surprised by this.

If Inflation is such a big issue, then why has Oil not taken out its all-time high? Supply-side issues created almost all these inflationary forces.



The money supply has gone insane since 2008, yet the current high in oil does not match the high in 2008, which indicates that inflation in the true sense is not an issue because oil should have surged at least to 240 on an inflation-adjusted basis. What the PTB does is control the supply; there is really no demand issue.