Interim Update Aug 17-19, 2022

[Eric]

WOLF closed at $85 dollars today, and it jumped to $100 after hours!!!

Congratulations! What is the sell target for WOLF and in what service? I have to setup into a meeting with my boss so can't look for it right now but I have WOLF shares in my 401k.

Edit: WOLF is an AI Service play so discussion of it should probably be moved to that forum. It's in the August 7th AI newsletter.

[SOL]

There is still more upside to this market, but the meme stock frenzy indicates that most young traders learnt absolutely nothing. They still believe in fast money, so the next mega bust in Meme stocks will hopefully shed some light on this dangerous endeavour. However, this action and that bullish sentiment on a percentage basis are rising quite rapidly, indicate/suggest all is not well.

Given that many people expect the markets to pull back, the indices might not pull back strongly, but individual stocks could shed more weight than the indices. Or we could have whipsaw action. fast downward move with an equally fast reveal. The bias is still to the upside.

Other factors

The Baltic dry index
It peaked in Aug of 2021 at roughly 4132. Today it's trading well below 1400. It is a leading economic indicator and suggests that all might not be well, as in more pain for Europe and indirectly consumers in the US because of the Russian sanctions

Copper

Another leading economic indicator is trading well of its highs, and the monthly charts indicate that there is more downside before it moves into the extremely oversold ranges.

Let's see how the pattern looks when the indices get close to our suggested targets in the Sept/Oct timelines. If this pattern follows the 1973 to 1974 pattern, the second downward leg will be more painful.

[LoriPrecisely]

I found a meme stock tracker...https://memestocks.org
Fresh from /r/wallstreetbets - Here are the most mentioned stocks of the last 24 hours
Bed, Bath and Beyond is #1

[harryg]

I found a meme stock tracker...https://memestocks.org
Fresh from /r/wallstreetbets - Here are the most mentioned stocks of the last 24 hours
Bed, Bath and Beyond is #1

That could be a useful one for sentiment...

[Budge]

I found a meme stock tracker...https://memestocks.org
Fresh from /r/wallstreetbets - Here are the most mentioned stocks of the last 24 hours
Bed, Bath and Beyond is #1

Chairman of Gamestop plans to sell total holdings (11.8%)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/after-ho ... 28994.html

[SOL]

I found a meme stock tracker...https://memestocks.org
Fresh from /r/wallstreetbets - Here are the most mentioned stocks of the last 24 hours
Bed, Bath and Beyond is #1

That could be a useful one for sentiment...

Yes, it could. We just finished our testing out our new tool, it looks at the discrepancy in the bullish sentiment, and it appears we were underestimating the shenanigans. Manipulation with bullish sentiment data is as much as 30%. Interestingly, they are targeting this sentiment the most; that begs the question why

And a breakthrough was made in the pain cycle index, which I have decided to rename as the Pain Pleasure Index or PPI. A little precocious, cute and bubbly 7-year-old going on 8 helped me find the final piece, as they say, from the mouth of babes. If time permits, I will recant this incident. In essence, she said Mr why don't you move things around, it will look better if you look at it like this, and that struck a light bulb.

[bobdylan]

I found a meme stock tracker...https://memestocks.org
Fresh from /r/wallstreetbets - Here are the most mentioned stocks of the last 24 hours
Bed, Bath and Beyond is #1

That could be a useful one for sentiment...

I've also used this site in the past for meme stocks and emerging sentiment from meme gamblers. Pretty useful.

https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/home

[harryg]

I avoid labels, titles etc., I prefer to be a nobody, so avoided an icon.

Might just be better to have a cheesy picture of Jesus, the light of the world! I know a few people might throw up after reading this but it's how I feel!

Go for it, someone has to stick it to the Ninjas!

[xkosmox]

In the recent MU update, its mentioned that risktakers can consider adding to their long positions when theres a pullback in the Dow of 500-700 points.

Just wanted to be clear on the meaning of a "pullback" here. Are we looking at it in a single day or across a larger range of days/weeks?
- eg. Dow dropped 300+ points today so i wont consider that to be valid
- however if i look across this week itself, it has already dropped 570+ points when compared to the highest point, after some up-and-down volatility. Would this still be considered a "pullback"?

[Yodean]

- however if i look across this week itself, it has already dropped 570+ points when compared to the highest point, after some up-and-down volatility. Would this still be considered a "pullback"?

my2c: yep, BTFD is back for a bit ... best guess is a period of consolidation in equities with mild bearish bias for a bit, before resumption of bull run.

nfa ...

[SOL]

In the recent MU update, its mentioned that risktakers can consider adding to their long positions when theres a pullback in the Dow of 500-700 points.

Just wanted to be clear on the meaning of a "pullback" here. Are we looking at it in a single day or across a larger range of days/weeks?
- eg. Dow dropped 300+ points today so i wont consider that to be valid
- however if i look across this week itself, it has already dropped 570+ points when compared to the highest point, after some up-and-down volatility. Would this still be considered a "pullback"?

It has to be a cumulative drop. So let's say the market dropped 400 points on Monday, Rallied 300 points on Tuesday, dropped another 100 points on Wednesday, on Thursday it tacked on 50 and on Friday, it shed 200. The total loss would be 350, so you would still be 150 points shy of the bare minimum needed to trigger a buy

[xkosmox]

Appreciated for the clarification

[LoriPrecisely]

I felt like I had a nice system going with selling Puts, but this rally and subsequent downturn has me all messed up. I can't seem to time the option plays correctly in this environment.

[Yodean]

I felt like I had a nice system going with selling Puts, but this rally and subsequent downturn has me all messed up. I can't seem to time the option plays correctly in this environment.

Yeh, my net profits with Spinning The Wheel (STW) have decreased significantly as well of late, partially due to market action but also due to rising costs of interest on margin use.

I don't think there is a perfect system of timing option plays. Constantly adjust. Also depends on what you think is going to happen in the short-term ... i.e. are markets topping and getting ready to drop, or consolidating a bit before going up more?

I think it's the latter, so I'm trying to Dance With Spears on the fly and make the appropriate moves. If you think the former scenario is more likely, then how you STW will be different.

Currently, I'm being a bit more conservative in some ways - e.g. when SCC'ing, I don't do it to all my shares of a particular stock all at once, like I used to, since I'm expecting the markets to start going up again at some point, fairly soon. Spreading out the SCC plays (a form of dollar cost averaging, you could say) on up days.

But I've become a lot more aggressive when SCP'ing - striking often just below market price for better premiums, since I think some sort of bull run in risk assets is coming up.

On balance, the next two weeks (which includes the Jackson Hole meeting) are going to be very volatile - I think there's going to be a big move during this time frame.

I just don't know in which direction.

[jlhooter]

I have scaled back STW especially SCCing. I am trying to time some SCPs coming this week I think. Prices dropped a couple of days and I feel at least 1 to 2 more days to get in. Hope to see a little rally since I will buy calls and hope to buy back puts to get those LT calls for free. Fingers crossed.