Interim Market Update Aug 4, 2021

[AstuteShift]

@TripleThought


Only way to learn is really to view markets like art and fully implementing mass psychology and esoteric principles in the tools

No offense to you but if SOL ever provided his method to you or to any of us then the tool will cease to work and also dare I say, you wouldn’t be able to understand the tools since it’s not based on a classic technical analysis market guru logic

Standard market tools are bastardized and bankers and top players abuse the standard tools. Hence you must customize this for your own needs

It even took me a long time to understand it and then bam one weekend of pure fun made me laugh and how simple it could be.

Just spend or weekend or two, play around with the settings in a relaxed manner then backtest it. You will be amazed how fun and simple the process is. Don’t brute force yourself but do it in a relaxed manner

[Yodean]

But knowing the date range, stock symbol, graphing tool, and having any MACDs or trend lines labeled as to parameters used would be helpful for future self sufficient fishing expeditions.

@YoungAnakin:

Another approach is to simply ignore learning technical analysis (TA) altogether. You sound like you are busy running a few businesses, etc. And I believe you are subscribed to all of T.I.'s services, so there are lots of plays to look at, things to read and re-read, etc., ideas to consider . . .

Overall I have little doubt that if you give the plays some time and space to breathe and evolve, as a totality you will be profitable over the long-term.

So one option that does not require any knowledge of TA is to simply follow T.I.'s instructions exactly. So buy and sell the assets in question in exactly the ranges described, and ignore all TA charts.

Now one may argue that this is just getting the fish without learning how to fish. Well, you could view it that way, or you could view it as learning how to get someone else to fish for you.

Either way you get good sushi.

You're still making independent decisions when it comes to which positions to enter, how much to allot to each position, how aggressive you want to be, etc. For example, when T.I. says to sell a 50% lot, you may decide to sell more or less, which I believe you're already doing a bit anyways.

The point is that there's still a lot of room for independent thinking and learning outside of the TA realm.

Another interesting way to use the T.I. materials is to look at which companies T.I. is recommending and cancelling - you could get a sense of what T.I. thinks is happening in terms of sector rotation, big cap to small cap, capital flows into different asset classes and countries, etc.

I know a few fairly successful long-term investors who pretty much think most of TA is rubbish, and all they want to know from me is: "Are we in a primary degree equity bull market or not? Let me know when you think the bubble is about to pop."

They keep a decent cash allocation, and pretty much almost never sell, and just add to their favourite equity positions on dips. Usually the equities they hold are the FANG-type stocks, and Dow/Nasdaq ETFs, some bonds, PMs, etc, maybe a small dash of crypto.

Then they go about their lives doing other stuff, as they are not that interested in being active traders. As a group, they have done surprisingly well.

[scott]

Now one may argue that this is just getting the fish without learning how to fish. Well, you could view it that way, or you could view it as learning how to get someone else to fish for you.

Either way you get good sushi.

I view it like chartering Cap'n Sol's tuna boat. You can drop as many lines as you like (up to a point, of course), and the kind Cap'n even lets you bring your GPS. Good times!

[Triplethought]

Then they go about their lives doing other stuff, as they are not that interested in being active traders. As a group, they have done surprisingly well.

This is a very reasonable approach. And the one that won a Nobel prize i believe.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what- ... cle_inline

[Budge]

@TripleThought


Only way to learn is really to view markets like art and fully implementing mass psychology and esoteric principles in the tools

No offense to you but if SOL ever provided his method to you or to any of us then the tool will cease to work and also dare I say, you wouldn’t be able to understand the tools since it’s not based on a classic technical analysis market guru logic

Standard market tools are bastardized and bankers and top players abuse the standard tools. Hence you must customize this for your own needs

It even took me a long time to understand it and then bam one weekend of pure fun made me laugh and how simple it could be.

Just spend or weekend or two, play around with the settings in a relaxed manner then backtest it. You will be amazed how fun and simple the process is. Don’t brute force yourself but do it in a relaxed manner

Agree except: "if SOL ever provided his method to you or to any of us then the tool will cease to work..." The tool would not cease to work because we are talking about MP, human psychology and the human capacity to FUBAR. The vast majority could be handed the answer to the "world, the universe and everything" and they're either still in Plato's Cave and meet it with disbelief, or, if open to the opportunity, will screw it up anyway:

No system is perfect and when it gives a loss or two, the doubts come in and they move onto another guru.

They'll tinker to make it better. When it doesn't work, "it was useless anyway!"

[Budge]

But knowing the date range, stock symbol, graphing tool, and having any MACDs or trend lines labeled as to parameters used would be helpful for future self sufficient fishing expeditions.

Then they go about their lives doing other stuff, as they are not that interested in being active traders. As a group, they have done surprisingly well.

More than one way "to skin a cat". I remember reading John Train's The Money Masters. They'd all found the style/system that they worked - for them.

Having said that, here's my fortune cookie wisdom: everything works until it doesn't.

[SOL]

The funny part is that I have given most of the system away, and that is to understand fear and why you fear it and then treat it as a useless emotion. Putting this one factoid into play over the long run would ensure everyone with kids would never have to work like slaves. instead of saving money for their college. Put those funds in an IRA for them or a custodial account and then buy when the masses panic, sell when every is jumping with joy.

Secondly, I mentioned how valuable MP is, and there are ways individuals can come with simple ways to determine market sentiment, co-workers, family, friends, associates, etc are a great source of contrarain data.

[Triplethought]

The funny part is that I have given most of the system away, and that is to understand fear and why you fear it and then treat it as a useless emotion. Putting this one factoid into play over the long run would ensure everyone with kids would never have to work like slaves. instead of saving money for their college. Put those funds in an IRA for them or a custodial account and then buy when the masses panic, sell when every is jumping with joy.

Secondly, I mentioned how valuable MP is, and there are ways individuals can come with simple ways to determine market sentiment, co-workers, family, friends, associates, etc are a great source of contrarain data.

"factoid" in the UK generally means an untrue or unreliable fact.

What I've learned from you is "buy low, sell high". which sounds odd because "You make your money when you buy not when you sell" is an old mantra of mine in business. I understood how to do it with buying houses and with business purchasing (neither is trivial) but I never really understood how to do it with stocks. Sol THAT is what you've taught me how to do. While it's true buying low is something I can't do if I'm afraid all the time. But learning HOW to buy low and sell high was the biggest lesson I will remember you forever for. Even if I lost your guidance on individual stock picks I feel that was long lasting value.

Someone once told me that most of the people with no fear of heights died out of the gene pool a long time ago. It was his way of saying "you SHOULD be afraid of heights". I use this as an example of being informed by healthy fear. In my own philosophy I try not to ignore fear but to be calm and rational in the face of it. I guess that might be considered "treating it as a useless emotion". Part of the reason I've both parachuted from an airplane & bungee jumped at night backwards off a railroad bridge (far scarier) was to beat fear.

[SOL]

"factoid" in the UK generally means an untrue or unreliable fact.

What I've learned from you is "buy low, sell high". which sounds odd because "You make your money when you buy not when you sell" is an old mantra of mine in business. I understood how to do it with buying houses and with business purchasing (neither is trivial) but I never really understood how to do it with stocks. Sol THAT is what you've taught me how to do. While it's true buying low is something I can't do if I'm afraid all the time. But learning HOW to buy low and sell high was the biggest lesson I will remember you forever for. Even if I lost your guidance on individual stock picks I feel that was long lasting value.

Someone once told me that most of the people with no fear of heights died out of the gene pool a long time ago. It was his way of saying "you SHOULD be afraid of heights". I use this as an example of being informed by healthy fear. In my own philosophy I try not to ignore fear but to be calm and rational in the face of it. I guess that might be considered "treating it as a useless emotion". Part of the reason I've both parachuted from an airplane & bungee jumped at night backwards off a railroad bridge (far scarier) was to beat fear.

Very true on the Factoid issue. In my defence I was looking at three posts and trying to reply to all three. However, it is still not a a good enough excuse so I will not correct my error so it serves as a reminder. Making a mistake once is okay. Making the same mistake twice or more is a sign of senility or sloppiness

But learning HOW to buy low and sell high was the biggest lesson I will remember you forever for. Even if I lost your guidance on individual stock picks I feel that was long lasting value.

Many moons ago when I was more of a firecracker and not so patient you would have probably driven me nuts with your prodding. However, now I find it interesting. Having said that, if what you stated above is true, then you have learnt the most valuable lesson there is to there is when it comes to investing in the markets.

Btw are you an Aries (zodiac sign) and how do you handle your alcohol. You don't have to answer if you don't want to

[bpcw]

I actually use standard RSI and MACD settings and have used them successfully to trade commodities, I have just come to recognise patterns and you almost gain a 6th sense. But I also rely heavily on TI updates to gauge MP, especially for the stock markets and sentiment. I don't want to spend too much time studying the markets, that's what I pay them for, investing is a means to an end not the end itself! I don't have millions like some but with TI I have managed to save enough to pay off my mortgage far quicker than I otherwise would have. I am a simple man who enjoys simple things with good company, love a cuppa and a chat with a friend in a cafe, I think one of the keys in life is learning to embrace and enjoy the simple things in life.

If it cost a million dollars to view a great sunset, all the billionaires would be booking regular appointments to see them!

[Budge]

I actually use standard RSI and MACD settings and have used them successfully to trade commodities, I have just come to recognise patterns and you almost gain a 6th sense. But I also rely heavily on TI updates to gauge MP, especially for the stock markets and sentiment. I don't want to spend too much time studying the markets, that's what I pay them for, investing is a means to an end not the end itself! I don't have millions like some but with TI I have managed to save enough to pay off my mortgage far quicker than I otherwise would have. I am a simple man who enjoys simple things with good company, love a cuppa and a chat with a friend in a cafe, I think one of the keys in life is learning to embrace and enjoy the simple things in life.

If it cost a million dollars to view a great sunset, all the billionaires would be booking regular appointments to see them!

Excellent!

[SOL]

I actually use standard RSI and MACD settings and have used them successfully to trade commodities, I have just come to recognise patterns and you almost gain a 6th sense. But I also rely heavily on TI updates to gauge MP, especially for the stock markets and sentiment. I don't want to spend too much time studying the markets, that's what I pay them for, investing is a means to an end not the end itself! I don't have millions like some but with TI I have managed to save enough to pay off my mortgage far quicker than I otherwise would have. I am a simple man who enjoys simple things with good company, love a cuppa and a chat with a friend in a cafe, I think one of the keys in life is learning to embrace and enjoy the simple things in life.

If it cost a million dollars to view a great sunset, all the billionaires would be booking regular appointments to see them!

Well said, most of the super-rich, only exist that is why they are not satisfied and want more and more. Given the choice of existing with a mega fortune or living with an amount that was enough to meet my base needs and put a bit away for a rainy day. I would take the second option, the option to live. Existing is like eating the best chocolate in the world with the wrapper on.

[Triplethought]

Many moons ago when I was more of a firecracker and not so patient you would have probably driven me nuts with your prodding. However, now I find it interesting. Having said that, if what you stated above is true, then you have learnt the most valuable lesson there is to there is when it comes to investing in the markets.

Btw are you an Aries (zodiac sign) and how do you handle your alcohol. You don't have to answer if you don't want to

I'm a libra. Funny you would put any stock in that. I don't know how to quantify how I handle my alcohol but I will say I was buzzed last night when I wrote that. I tend to go week or 2 without booze and then one or 2 nights in a row enjoy a whole bottle of wine and wake up with a slight headache.

[MarkD]

Speaking of fear, did anyone else grab FSLY on the earnings dump?

[stefk]

FSLY, is it an official play of TI ?

she has the same behaviour as AYX, in the same falling wedge, we arrive at the end of this pattern, and the only way to go outside is upside.