Fills

[Triplethought]

Hey Nostradamus. Predictions without a date are meaningless. It's easy to say there will be an earthquake in the San Francisco area. It's a bit harder to say when.

Dude, q4 is going to be net +ve for equities! My base case. There - time and price endpoints.

Stocks to the moon!

Buy when you feel like puking after you press the buy button ... some call it the pain trade, but I call it the "puke trade."

Puke lots, get rich!

So Dec 31 higher on S&P 500 than Oct 1st? I'd like to bet a beer on that one.

[Yodean]

So Dec 31 higher on S&P 500 than Oct 1st? I'd like to bet a beer on that one.

How about a 500+ word essay? I've got a similar bet against Budge re/ Formosa.

If you win, you specify the topic and I have to write a post on it.

If I win, you have to write one on a topic of my choosing ... for you, prolly something like, "why astrology is extremely accurate at predicting market tops."

Let's do this!

[Triplethought]

So Dec 31 higher on S&P 500 than Oct 1st? I'd like to bet a beer on that one.

How about a 500+ word essay? I've got a similar bet against Budge re/ Formosa.

If you win, you specify the topic and I have to write a post on it.

If I win, you have to write one on a topic of my choosing ... for you, prolly something like, "why astrology is extremely accurate at predicting market tops."

Let's do this!

I used to say i could argue any side of any position but I would have a really hard time writing"why astrology is extremely accurate at predicting market tops. My head might explode. But seriously I don't think I couldnt do such a topic justice.

But I see your point. Forcing someone to take the other side forces them to get outside of their comfort zone and echo chamber. and forcing a smug bastard like me to do it might be satisfying. By the way, that's exactly how I became an atheist. In High-school the teacher had us debate Noah's ark and as a good catholic boy I had to argue the "this story doesn't work" side. By the time I was done I realized Noah's Ark HAD to be bullshit.

[Budge]

So Dec 31 higher on S&P 500 than Oct 1st? I'd like to bet a beer on that one.

How about a 500+ word essay? I've got a similar bet against Budge re/ Formosa.

If you win, you specify the topic and I have to write a post on it.

If I win, you have to write one on a topic of my choosing ... for you, prolly something like, "why astrology is extremely accurate at predicting market tops."

Let's do this!

I used to say i could argue any side of any position but I would have a really hard time writing"why astrology is extremely accurate at predicting market tops. My head might explode. But seriously I don't think I couldnt do such a topic justice.

T3, there are books galore on that very subject. Don't be too proud. In case of a loss, do a FJB and plagiarise.

[Triplethought]

So Dec 31 higher on S&P 500 than Oct 1st? I'd like to bet a beer on that one.

How about a 500+ word essay? I've got a similar bet against Budge re/ Formosa.

If you win, you specify the topic and I have to write a post on it.

If I win, you have to write one on a topic of my choosing ... for you, prolly something like, "why astrology is extremely accurate at predicting market tops."

Let's do this!

You musta got killed today in the market hey? Wow. s&P is 8% lower for the month. Ouch. No sign of capitulation on the VIX though.
MUST NOT GLOAT too early (said in the overly dramatic voice of Wlliam Shatner).

[Yodean]

You musta got killed today in the market hey? Wow. s&P is 8% lower for the month. Ouch. No sign of capitulation on the VIX though.
MUST NOT GLOAT too early (said in the overly dramatic voice of Wlliam Shatner).

Indeed, since late February, this year has been a continuing, largely uninterrupted series of unsedated colonoscopies on moi.

My 18-year CAGR took a big hit this year, but on a non-risk adjusted basis, it's still not too terrible. Depending on how my 20-year CAGR looks in a few years, I might give myself a Ninjedi Black Belt of some sort, or demote myself.

Happy to put my 20-year CAGR against most, I'd wager. But first one has to survive to get to the 20-year CAGR ...

The best part of this year is I learned a lot about investing and trading, compared to the previous 17 years, and identified clearly some of my blindspots and weaknesses - in previous decades/years, I've gotten away with murder in the markets, largely because of my excessive risk tolerance, Lady Luck's affection, and constant YOLOing.

Nothing much has changed, actually, lol. Some core adjustments regarding risk management have been made, perhaps. And of course, Spinning The Wheel and LEAPS have been added to the YOLO arsenal.

Anyhow, is the bet on?

The original one - indices end year higher vs. October 1st close. 500+ word essay on the topic of the winner's choice.

I sense fear in you, YoungAnakin.

[PuppBaby]

$110 Call Buy on TLT Jan 2023 for $0.93

[Triplethought]

You musta got killed today in the market hey? Wow. s&P is 8% lower for the month. Ouch. No sign of capitulation on the VIX though.
MUST NOT GLOAT too early (said in the overly dramatic voice of Wlliam Shatner).

Indeed, since late February, this year has been a continuing, largely uninterrupted series of unsedated colonoscopies on moi.

My 18-year CAGR took a big hit this year, but on a non-risk adjusted basis, it's still not too terrible. Depending on how my 20-year CAGR looks in a few years, I might give myself a Ninjedi Black Belt of some sort, or demote myself.

Happy to put my 20-year CAGR against most, I'd wager. But first one has to survive to get to the 20-year CAGR ...

The best part of this year is I learned a lot about investing and trading, compared to the previous 17 years, and identified clearly some of my blindspots and weaknesses - in previous decades/years, I've gotten away with murder in the markets, largely because of my excessive risk tolerance, Lady Luck's affection, and constant YOLOing.

Nothing much has changed, actually, lol. Some core adjustments regarding risk management have been made, perhaps. And of course, Spinning The Wheel and LEAPS have been added to the YOLO arsenal.

Anyhow, is the bet on?

The original one - indices end year higher vs. October 1st close. 500+ word essay on the topic of the winner's choice.

I sense fear in you, YoungAnakin.

Yes you're on. 500 words is easy enough and I think you will be wrong. But I'll be on a cruise ship going thru the Panama canal on Dec 31st so be patient. I'll come back to see who won the bet by Jan 10th or so.

[Triplethought]

sold BAYRY yesterday for 5.7% gain in 1 week. I realize it's not a TI play but given the lack of entry or exit points I'm celebrating a rare win on my own. I read how roundup had won the last 5 lawsuits and bought in on a dip last week.

[Triplethought]

$110 Call Buy on TLT Jan 2023 for $0.93

The only instruction I see on TLT is to sell when it hits $120-$125. Is this a personal play?

[Yodean]

Yes you're on. 500 words is easy enough and I think you will be wrong. But I'll be on a cruise ship going thru the Panama canal on Dec 31st so be patient. I'll come back to see who won the bet by Jan 10th or so.

Sounds good. The skies are finally open again to my Pureblooded spouse and myself, so we'll likely be somewhere nice and hot around that time as well.

Did hear a rumour that the monkeypox arse-variant has been infecting cruise ships passing through the Panama canal ...

[jlhooter]

$110 Call Buy on TLT Jan 2023 for $0.93

What drove you to select the strike and date that you did? I am intersted in your reasoning?

[Triplethought]

$110 Call Buy on TLT Jan 2023 for $0.93

What drove you to select the strike and date that you did? I am intersted in your reasoning?

Me too. When the FED raises rates bonds fall in price and you can see that's happened this year. The FED will likely do .75 at next meeting Nov 2 and again Dec 14th. If Dec 14th they "surprise" higher (which for those expecting .5 will be .75) it will result in Bonds and TLT falling even further. To expect them to recover all the way to $110 by January seems unlikely. I get that there is a good chance of a bump near election time and I get TLT looks like it's been bottoming all year and is historically low but given that you're "fighting the fed" Jan is just too soon for a recovery. Jan 2024 might have been safer. My 2 cents.

[Yodean]

Me too. When the FED raises rates bonds fall in price and you can see that's happened this year. The FED will likely do .75 at next meeting Nov 2 and again Dec 14th. If Dec 14th they "surprise" higher (which for those expecting .5 will be .75) it will result in Bonds and TLT falling even further. To expect them to recover all the way to $110 by January seems unlikely. I get that there is a good chance of a bump near election time and I get TLT looks like it's been bottoming all year and is historically low but given that you're "fighting the fed" Jan is just too soon for a recovery. Jan 2024 might have been safer. My 2 cents.

I think it's a pretty good trade, with considerable risk, but the potential for even gr8er reward.

Atm, jan23c for TLT str110 carries a delta of 0.1588 - supposedly means around 16% probability of option expiring ITM.

But it's really cheap ... and a lot can happen between now and jan23 wrt to U.S. bonds.

Fed may or may not raise 75bps on Nov. 2nd - could be 50bps.

Softer "pivot" may simply be changing SLR requirements for banks, which will incentivize banks to start buying U.S. long bonds again.

The U.S. Treasury market is becoming increasingly illiquid - in late 2018, this was about the point the Fed "pivoted."

Now, it's a different situation, but the Fed can't allow the U.S. bond markets to go "no bid."

I think PuppBaby's got this one ...

[jlhooter]

Me too. When the FED raises rates bonds fall in price and you can see that's happened this year. The FED will likely do .75 at next meeting Nov 2 and again Dec 14th. If Dec 14th they "surprise" higher (which for those expecting .5 will be .75) it will result in Bonds and TLT falling even further. To expect them to recover all the way to $110 by January seems unlikely. I get that there is a good chance of a bump near election time and I get TLT looks like it's been bottoming all year and is historically low but given that you're "fighting the fed" Jan is just too soon for a recovery. Jan 2024 might have been safer. My 2 cents.

I think it's a pretty good trade, with considerable risk, but the potential for even gr8er reward.

Atm, jan23c for TLT str110 carries a delta of 0.1588 - supposedly means around 16% probability of option expiring ITM.

But it's really cheap ... and a lot can happen between now and jan23 wrt to U.S. bonds.

Fed may or may not raise 75bps on Nov. 2nd - could be 50bps.

Softer "pivot" may simply be changing SLR requirements for banks, which will incentivize banks to start buying U.S. long bonds again.

The U.S. Treasury market is becoming increasingly illiquid - in late 2018, this was about the point the Fed "pivoted."

Now, it's a different situation, but the Fed can't allow the U.S. bond markets to go "no bid."

I think PuppBaby's got this one ...

I respect TT's good comments but my request is not challenging only trying to understand the thoughts of the play.

I agree with TT I myself would have picked a time in at least Jun 2023 or later.