Geopoltical Interim Update may 4, 2022

[SOL]

Interesting you should say that, there is a psychic on Telegram 'Utsava" who claims the stock market is going away. She did sorta rightly predict FB was going away, but it has not really gone away completely, yet.
That would really stink, because I am just learning about Option Trading, and it almost seems too good to be real. Usually, when that is the case, it is.

It's not really too good to be true, because the techniques we are talking about, are not widely used. The most widely used buying puts or calls and those, in general, can be risky especially if you overload which is easy to do when you get that feeling that tells you the option is going to the moon, instead it heads for hell.

SCSP and SCC are quite safe and with a bit of timing and work can help generate a decent cash flow that is far superior to owning real estate well at least in states on countries that think the landlord is a bad dude. Now if you combine selling puts and selling calls with customized debit strategies that are never really spoken off, you can do even better. It all comes down to patience and discipline. In general the monetary aspect of the markets bore me, its the psychological aspect that keeps me going

[Yodean]

In general the monetary aspect of the markets bore me, its the psychological aspect that keeps me going

Yeh, even going back many moons, I always got the feeling that you were bored with the markets, wrt to P/L - I think I even wrote a post about it; whether it was here or in the AITT forum, I don't quite recall.

Still, the markets are a fun game, especially if you add in the Herd Psychology aspects.

Btw, meant to ask you - what do you think of ITM LEAPs? I know that you favour LEAPs, as a general rule. Prolly falls in the SCC, SCSP, and debit spread strategies, in terms of safety and potential, I would think?

[SOL]

In general the monetary aspect of the markets bore me, its the psychological aspect that keeps me going

Yeh, even going back many moons, I always got the feeling that you were bored with the markets, wrt to P/L - I think I even wrote a post about it; whether it was here or in the AITT forum, I don't quite recall.

Still, the markets are a fun game, especially if you add in the Herd Psychology aspects.

Btw, meant to ask you - what do you think of ITM LEAPs? I know that you favour LEAPs, as a general rule. Prolly falls in the SCC, SCSP, and debit spread strategies, in terms of safety and potential, I would think?

ITM, you mean in the money leaps. It's an overrated pile of Horse and you can complete the rest. It's no different from buying a far OTM leap. If you buy an ITM and the stock drops as was the case with COIN, and many others you would be blown out of the water if you overloaded on them. With stock you have unlimited time premium with the option you don't

Okay, I will provide you with a suggestion, if you make millions you can help fund my future concept of creating a super Epicurian type retreat. For now its a perception and who knows maybe I will find another illusion to focus on lol. Oh btw Harry will be the administrator. You will have to pass his test to get into the place. failure will be dealt with in whatever way he sees fit

Look for an extremely oversold stock you like, let's use two examples PYPL and QCOM. Both are trading in the oversold ranges, with PYPL trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the monthly charts.

A possible strategy for QCOM, If it trades somewhere in 121 to 128 ranges you could sell a far out of the money put. Say going to Jan 2024, but let's assume you opt for Jan 2023. When the stock trades in those ranges you could sell the Jan 2023 100 put, which would be trading in the 14 to 16 ranges so you would get roughly 1400 to 1600 bucks per put sold. Now you use part of those funds to purchase far out of the money call. For illustrative purposes, let's take the Jan 2023 165 calls which should be trading in the 4.00 to 6.00 ranges. Using this strategy you would still be left with a net credit of 1000 plus dollars. Now you are positioned to lock in gains via the call which were funded for free and you also have the option of getting into a stock you don't mind owning for 10 bucks per share cheaper than you would have had you simply put in a limit order to buy at 100.

[Yodean]

ITM, you mean in the money leaps. It's an overrated pile of Horse and you can complete the rest. It's no different from buying a far OTM leap. If you buy an ITM and the stock drops as was the case with COIN, and many others you would be blown out of the water if you overloaded on them. With stock you have unlimited time premium with the option you don't

Okay, I will provide you with a suggestion, if you make millions you can help fund my future concept of creating a super Epicurian type retreat. For now its a perception and who knows maybe I will find another illusion to focus on lol. Oh btw Harry will be the administrator. You will have to pass his test to get into the place. failure will be dealt with in whatever way he sees fit

Look for an extremely oversold stock you like, let's use two examples PYPL and QCOM. Both are trading in the oversold ranges, with PYPL trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the monthly charts.

A possible strategy for QCOM, If it trades somewhere in 121 to 128 ranges you could sell a far out of the money put. Say going to Jan 2024, but let's assume you opt for Jan 2023. When the stock trades in those ranges you could sell the Jan 2023 100 put, which would be trading in the 14 to 16 ranges so you would get roughly 1400 to 1600 bucks per put sold. Now you use part of those funds to purchase far out of the money call. For illustrative purposes, let's take the Jan 2023 165 calls which should be trading in the 4.00 to 6.00 ranges. Using this strategy you would still be left with a net credit of 1000 plus dollars. Now you are positioned to lock in gains via the call which were funded for free and you also have the option of getting into a stock you don't mind owning for 10 bucks per share cheaper than you would have had you simply put in a limit order to buy at 100.

1) Thanks for the QCOM rec - I've got a big position already in terms of stock, but will likely try your recommended debit spread? when the time comes. Sounds interesting and educational for an OptionsWhiteBelt like myself.

2) With respect to ITM LEAPs (9+ months to 2 years), I am thinking more in terms of it being a simple strategy for those new to options, like myself. For example, in situations where you would buy 100 shares of ABC at price X, you could buy 1 ITM LEAP contract with strike slightly below X. Then you either let the LEAP expire, or you take big profits when your price target is met. I am aiming for at least a one-year expiration period.

For example, I like both silver and gold at current levels for accumulation purposes, but I want to maintain a certain level of buying power, so using ITM LEAPs ties up less of one's buying power. With the long duration in terms of expiry, the risk of theta decay, etc. is less.

3) I am not a big fan of retreats, Epicurean or otherwise. I have been to quite a few in this life cycle, and while in some cases the "Guru" was quite good and had something valuable to say, in all cases the retreat participants as a group generally was quite terrible. These days I am trying to pay a little more attention to defending my Auric Frequency - i.e. less interactions with those of lower vibrations. LMAO.

On the other hand, happy to engage you in a pho eating contest, followed by the Hanging Non-Trans-Man contest - kind of like a debit spread, in a way - on the continent of your choice, subject to Pureblood status.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1522202770069196800

[jlhooter]

A possible strategy for QCOM, ... you could sell the Jan 2023 100 put, which would be trading in the 14 to 16 ranges ... purchase far out of the money ... Jan 2023 165 calls which should be trading in the 4.00 to 6.00 ranges. ... you would still be left with a net credit of 1000 plus dollars ...

1) Thanks for the QCOM rec - I've got a big position already in terms of stock, but will likely try your recommended debit spread? when the time comes. Sounds interesting and educational for an OptionsWhiteBelt like myself.

Yodean, learning myself; I believe this is a Credit Spread since you have a net credit $10 after performing the put-call strategy.

[Yodean]

Yodean, learning myself; I believe this is a Credit Spread since you have a net credit $10 after performing the put-call strategy.

Yeh, you're right. Credit spread. Btw, what do you think of ITM LEAPs?

[Eric]

Yodean, learning myself; I believe this is a Credit Spread since you have a net credit $10 after performing the put-call strategy.

Yeh, you're right. Credit spread. Btw, what do you think of ITM LEAPs?

That's the one I dubbed the TI Dead-Butterfly spread.

RE: ITM leaps, if you want add SLV today at <$20 but don't want to tie up $20xShares in it because there's too many other mouth watering deals right now; buying $10 2024 LEAPS will only cost you about $10.50 so you keep half of your buying power. The 2024 LEAP only has about 57¢ of "interest" baked into it. By my math that works out to about 3.4% annual interest for a loan running out 19 months. That's a pretty good interest rate. I can't imagine seeing SLV sub-$10 again so the risk of the option expiring worthless is very very very low and as long as it stays above $10 the worst thing that can happen to you (assuming you 100% intend to either buy the shares or the ITM calls) is that you paid 5.7% total interest for a 19 month loan.

You can also sell a $28 call against the $10 call you bought. The $28 short call would fetch around $2 so if SLV goes back to $40+ your lock in your $10 gain and walk away ($8 appreciation plus $2 option premium).

[Yodean]

That's the one I dubbed the TI Dead-Butterfly spread.

RE: ITM leaps, if you want add SLV today at <$20 but don't want to tie up $20xShares in it because there's too many other mouth watering deals right now; buying $10 2024 LEAPS will only cost you about $10.50 so you keep half of your buying power. The 2024 LEAP only has about 57¢ of "interest" baked into it. By my math that works out to about 3.4% annual interest for a loan running out 19 months. That's a pretty good interest rate. I can't imagine seeing SLV sub-$10 again so the risk of the option expiring worthless is very very very low and as long as it stays above $10 the worst thing that can happen to you (assuming you 100% intend to either buy the shares or the ITM calls) is that you paid 5.7% total interest for a 19 month loan.

You can also sell a $28 call against the $10 call you bought. The $28 short call would fetch around $2 so if SLV goes back to $40+ your lock in your $10 gain and walk away ($8 appreciation plus $2 option premium).

Thanks OptionsNinja. I ended up (done now) entering orders for LEAPs on the following: ZS, CRWD, COIN, URNM, BITO, and GLD. Some have filled.

I had already bought some mar23-26 SLV calls recently so I left silver alone today. Maybe more if/when silver drops below $20.

But yeh, I've heard about the "selling covered calls on the calls you buy" tactic - not quite ready to do this yet.

I'm pretty patient with options - I want to crawl well before I try walking, walk before I run, and run before I fly.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1522002570067255296

[jlhooter]

Yodean, learning myself; I believe this is a Credit Spread since you have a net credit $10 after performing the put-call strategy.

Yeh, you're right. Credit spread. Btw, what do you think of ITM LEAPs?

I wasn't thinking about them at all ... until now.

Seriously, I am interested now after watching this and reading what Eric replied.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95suqaJcFtU

[SOL]

Eric's strategy is great but the dude has the fortitude to monitor his positions like a hawk.

Or you could sell the Jan 2024 15 put when SLV trades to the 15 to 17 ranges (good chance it will do that) at that point you could get north of 1.50, but let's say you get 1.50, you tie up 1500 of cash as opposed to 1K for each Jan 2024 10 SLV call you buy at roughly 10 bucks.

Now you buy the Sept 2023 25 calls which should drop well below 1.50 if SLV trades to the suggested ranges. So you have unlimited upside potential if the shares are not assigned to you. You are risking 1500 and you get free calls to go with the deal. This strategy is great only if you don't mind owning the shares.

This is a credit spread but these type of credit spreads are hardly discussed. The usual spreads are buying or sell a put against another put or call.

[Eric]

Morality is all relative

To an atheist, yes. A devout, learned Christian could make a strong argument that morality is absolute. Maybe bpcw has something to add.

The sixth commandment is thou shall not MURDER. It is not thou shall not KILL. Executing Fauci for crimes against humanity, acceptable. Fauci murdering millions with his lab created virus and clot-shots, unacceptable.

[SOL]

Morality is all relative

To an atheist, yes. A devout, learned Christian could make a strong argument that morality is absolute. Maybe bpcw has something to add.

The sixth commandment is thou shall not MURDER. It is not thou shall not KILL. Executing Fauci for crimes against humanity, acceptable. Fauci murdering millions with his lab created virus and clot-shots, unacceptable.

If had to select three judges to mete out punishment to Fauci it would be you, Budge and Harry.

In regards to morality the way you put it, its acceptable, but each age (timeline) finds a way to twist it to suit their needs. What is immoral today then becomes moral tomorrow

[Yodean]

Or you could sell the Jan 2024 15 put when SLV trades to the 15 to 17 ranges (good chance it will do that) at that point you could get north of 1.50, but let's say you get 1.50, you tie up 1500 of cash as opposed to 1K for each Jan 2024 10 SLV call you buy at roughly 10 bucks.

Now you buy the Sept 2023 25 calls which should drop well below 1.50 if SLV trades to the suggested ranges. So you have unlimited upside potential if the shares are not assigned to you. You are risking 1500 and you get free calls to go with the deal. This strategy is great only if you don't mind owning the shares.

This is a credit spread but these type of credit spreads are hardly discussed. The usual spreads are buying or sell a put against another put or call.

Thanks Sol. I like the suggested SLV trade listed above - will likely partake, if SLV drops to 17.

In general, I get the overlying concept with these types of paired option trades - one trade makes you some money or gets you shares you want anyways at a predetermined price (trade #1, safe), while the second trade (the OTM call, riskier) is funded by the $$$ you made on the 1st trade, so the 2nd trade is free, and the potential gains from the 2nd trade is unlimited.

Very nice. In poker, we call the 2nd trade a "free roll."

I am kind of already doing this, in a way - I'm SCC'ing on a lot of my stock positions, as well as SCSP'ing some, and with the cash generated, I'm buying different types of calls, some OTM, some ITM.

I still think there's a place for ITM LEAPs - you do end up tying up a bit less buying power, but you have less upside, and it's not "free," compared to the paired credit spreads. Planning to do both.

[bpcw]

Morality is all relative

To an atheist, yes. A devout, learned Christian could make a strong argument that morality is absolute. Maybe bpcw has something to add.

The sixth commandment is thou shall not MURDER. It is not thou shall not KILL. Executing Fauci for crimes against humanity, acceptable. Fauci murdering millions with his lab created virus and clot-shots, unacceptable.

If had to select three judges to mete out punishment to Fauci it would be you, Budge and Harry.

In regards to morality the way you put it, its acceptable, but each age (timeline) finds a way to twist it to suit their needs. What is immoral today then becomes moral tomorrow

If morality is relative then anything can be justified since it's only measured against ones own view. The vast majority of people accept psychopaths act and subconsciously believe in an absolute morality since they couldn't ever agree to torture an individual was moral because that's what the perpetrator thought was ok. What you typically get from the atheist when asked why certain behaviours are wrong is "they just are", in other words I'm to proud to consider God so I'll live in complete denial.

Hitler believed his extermination of the Jews was acceptable since it furthered the human race, he had an evolutionary belief system.

Much evil has been done in the name of religion but none following the words of Jesus:

“The most important one,” answered Jesus, “is this: ‘Hear, O Israel: The Lord our God, the Lord is one. Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength.’ The second is this: ‘Love your neighbor as yourself.’ There is no commandment greater than these.”


Many

[Yodean]

Believing in a book, any book, will lead to this, eventually:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1509127223613304833