Interim update May 10

[Centeron631]

A Canadian Market advisor/Teacher in day trading, swing trading, for past 20 years and positional trading says ther is a good chance now in the near future within the next 30 days for a Bull Trap in S&P 500 - a Bull Trap causing a blip up in the Market for 1 to 2 weeks (although the most recent one was closer to 3 weeks) because of last Friday the moarket overreacted to the downside (too much emotiional reaction). He says one has to watch the one month 60 minute chart and one will actually see the break thru of the downward trend line if this comes to pass and in particular right now it is coming off a double bottom pattern on that chart. Altho reversion will get back up to the usual long term downward trend line i am thinking that I will watch it (only have to remember to) and then maybe one week in strongly consider selling off of all my doggies. ps maybe today is the start of this short term blip up. Called a Trap because it may trap lots of investors into buying long.

[Yodean]

ps maybe today is the start of this short term blip up. Called a Trap because it may trap lots of investors into buying long.

Anything's possible. Or this could be the start of a sustained rally. Or if could be a bull trap, followed by a sustained rally. The fun of the markets is that past a certain point, no one knows for sure. Be prepared for anything.

At interim lows in primary degree bull markets that just underwent a severe correction, a lot of retail investors run around trying to find the best expert that will tell them exactly what is going to happen next.

No one knows for certain, that is the only certainty. Not even Jesus.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1524835727258812417

[SOL]

World's Richest Family Bet on Munis, Japanese Stocks, Coinbase

WIT LLC, an acronym for the Walton Investment Team, invests mostly in low-cost exchange-traded funds. It held about $5.1 billion in U.S. stocks and ETFs at the end of last quarter, a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission showed Friday.

The firm, which oversees money for the world’s wealthiest family, added 3.9 million shares of the iShares MSCI Japan ETF worth about $239.3 million, its biggest new stake and its fifth-largest overall. WIT also bought about $150 million in small-cap stocks through new positions in Vanguard and iShares index funds. The largest holding is the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, which was worth $1.6 billion at the end of the quarter even after it was whittled down.

Its next two largest stakes are in debt funds: the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF and the iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF. WIT added to both positions in the first quarter as front-end yields surged on expectations of accelerated Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.

While the vast majority of the positions are in index funds, WIT also acquired $15 million of Coinbase, the cryptocurrency exchange whose shares have tumbled 73% this year, and 64% since March 31.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worlds-r ... 47728.html

Something to ponder over. Especially the Japanese equity purchases. Looks like a tradable bottom should be in the works

[chippermon]

I have been focusing on the JPY of late. The BOJ is holding the course. They don't seem to care about the value of the Yen. They are more interested in keeping inflation down which is paltry compared to the rest of the western world, and others. I feel they are more interested in building an economy. One to rival that of the 70's and beyond. One of exporting quality goods. They have been suffering for some time now.

Most of you are too young to remember it or know but when I was a kid if it said made in Japan it was sh*t. Well, you know the rest of the story. They destroyed many North American industries. Ie. Autos.

We'll see but very interesting developments happening here. What could it be. Software? AI? Chips? Electronics? Heavy industry?

[SOL]

I have been focusing on the JPY of late. The BOJ is holding the course. They don't seem to care about the value of the Yen. They are more interested in keeping inflation down which is paltry compared to the rest of the western world, and others. I feel they are more interested in building an economy. One to rival that of the 70's and beyond. One of exporting quality goods. They have been suffering for some time now.

Most of you are too young to remember it or know but when I was a kid if it said made in Japan it was sh*t. Well, you know the rest of the story. They destroyed many North American industries. Ie. Autos.

We'll see but very interesting developments happening here. What could it be. Software? AI? Chips? Electronics? Heavy industry?

Apparently, there is a currency-hedged ETF HEW and that has done quite well. We just became aware of it. There just too many ETFS out there to keep track of all of them. Looks like this ETF does well when the Yen pullback

[Yodean]

So far, we have discovered that there is a deviation factor of 2-4 in the bullish reading and 2-5 in the neutral readings. For example, when we examine the sentiment data, we have to determine what the deviation factor is. If the regular data states Bulls - 47 and Neutral readings are 41. Then the real readings will fall in the 43 to 45 range for bulls, and neutral readings will fall in the 43 to 46. Neutral readings are adjusted upwards, and bullish readings are adjusted downward.

This is quite interesting. For one, the above may mean that readily available bearish readings are representative.

My initial thesis is that by manipulating the "real" bullish values upwards for all to see, it gets the Herd to sell sooner. Neutral values have to be pushed down in order to compensate for the raising of the true bullish values.

This is assuming that bearish values haven't been tampered with too much.

[Yodean]

I have been focusing on the JPY of late. The BOJ is holding the course. They don't seem to care about the value of the Yen. They are more interested in keeping inflation down which is paltry compared to the rest of the western world, and others.

I view the BOJ's recent actions somewhat differently. It's part of the great WOC (War Of Currencies).
The BOJ was forced - and this will happen again - to either defend its bond markets, or its currency.

You can't do both at the same time. It chose to defend its bond markets through yield curve control, so the yen suffered. If it didn't defend its bond markets, it is quite possible Japan's bond markets would have crashed, sooner rather than later.

It's all relative, of course - when the USD takes a breather from rising, all the other currencies that have been crushed, whether it's Euro, yuan, sterling, etc. may get a bit of respite, before they get smashed some more.

The USD Milkshake is playing out a bit in real time ...

[SOL]

So far, we have discovered that there is a deviation factor of 2-4 in the bullish reading and 2-5 in the neutral readings. For example, when we examine the sentiment data, we have to determine what the deviation factor is. If the regular data states Bulls - 47 and Neutral readings are 41. Then the real readings will fall in the 43 to 45 range for bulls, and neutral readings will fall in the 43 to 46. Neutral readings are adjusted upwards, and bullish readings are adjusted downward.

This is quite interesting. For one, the above may mean that readily available bearish readings are representative.

My initial thesis is that by manipulating the "real" bullish values upwards for all to see, it gets the Herd to sell sooner. Neutral values have to be pushed down in order to compensate for the raising of the true bullish values.

This is assuming that bearish values haven't been tampered with too much.

The readings are being manipulated but not in the old traditional way where you just fudge the data, they are manipulating the minds of the players. With enough time and resources, especially the latter, you can make 90% see what they want to see for these people after roughly the age of 7 and if they are lucky after the age of 9 cease to live in the real world. If the numbers were being fudged it would be infinitely easier to spot the deviations. One other thing one has to take into account is that on occasion the bullish numbers are lower than what the real figure might be. For example, there was not much of a sentiment signal on the COVID crash, but there were technical signs of a possible pullback but nothing so severe. So those relying fully on TA were given a false sense that it's back in action and perhaps this is why this current pullback was so severe and harsh to screw everyone's minds.

The psyops is to get everyone to forget that the markets always resolve and trend upwards. Instead they want you to focus on how low it will go and how much you are currently losing.

[bpcw]

ps maybe today is the start of this short term blip up. Called a Trap because it may trap lots of investors into buying long.

Anything's possible. Or this could be the start of a sustained rally. Or if could be a bull trap, followed by a sustained rally. The fun of the markets is that past a certain point, no one knows for sure. Be prepared for anything.

At interim lows in primary degree bull markets that just underwent a severe correction, a lot of retail investors run around trying to find the best expert that will tell them exactly what is going to happen next.

This is good advice I think.

The predominant thinking I am observing is one of fear that the markets are going to plummet further and also that this latest rally is probably a bull trap. I also do not have much confidence that this rally will hold. All of this probably indicates that we have seen the bottom but if it isn't then we should be very close. The PTB do the opposite to the masses at extremes and the prevailing narrative so we must think like them and not the masses or 'experts ' with no long term track record.

The idea that we should sell and buy in later at a lower point is about as obvious as it gets, especially in hindsight or with one's crystal ball but I would ask what measurement is one going to use to know with any certainly where the bottom is in realtime? If we were 50% down in the index's today their would be lots of people saying exactly the same, even 70%! Most of these people when there is the bottom will be saying this all the way up until they despair that they didn't buy at the bottom, classic market psychology!

[SOL]

ps maybe today is the start of this short term blip up. Called a Trap because it may trap lots of investors into buying long.

Anything's possible. Or this could be the start of a sustained rally. Or if could be a bull trap, followed by a sustained rally. The fun of the markets is that past a certain point, no one knows for sure. Be prepared for anything.

At interim lows in primary degree bull markets that just underwent a severe correction, a lot of retail investors run around trying to find the best expert that will tell them exactly what is going to happen next.

That is why bottoms can only be timed in hindsight and with no skin in the game. Yes you might be right but by the time you act on it, the market is trading a lot higher than you expected and then you become part of the Shit I wish i had bought crowd. A good stock that is down 80% can soar back to life and then surge another 100%. Just pull up historical charts and you will see this is true. We all know we are going to die yet most act like they will live forever. Put that sentiment into trading, the markets always find a way to deal with the doom and gloom and when they do they take out the old highs. its a question when not if

This is good advice I think.

The predominant thinking I am observing is one of fear that the markets are going to plummet further and also that this latest rally is probably a bull trap. I also do not have much confidence that this rally will hold. All of this probably indicates that we have seen the bottom but if it doesn't then we should be very close. The PTB do the opposite to the masses at extremes and the prevailing narrative so we must think like them and not the masses or 'experts ' with no long term track record.

The idea that we should sell and buy in later at a lower point is about as obvious as it gets, especially in hindsight or with one's crystal ball but I would ask what measurement is one going to use to know with any certainly where the bottom is in realtime? If we were 50% down in the index's today their would be lots of people saying exactly the same, even 70%! Most of these people when they're is the bottom will be saying this all the way up until they despair that they didn't buy at the bottom, classic market psychology!

[Yodean]

The psyops is to get everyone to forget that the markets always resolve and trend upwards. Instead they want you to focus on how low it will go and how much you are currently losing.

One narrative I use for myself at times like this as far as markets go is that instead of focusing on the nominal value of the assets in my portfolio in fiat (i.e. USD) terms, I focus on the number of shares of good companies I own, instead.

So the fiat nominal value may be down quite a lot atm, but I hold many more shares of good companies than previously. "Fiat-thinking vs. Asset-thinking."

In a small way, this helps me sleep well at night, without too much need for EtOh.

[MarkD]

i FOLLOW THE MONEY.

Bonds lead stocks,
Stocks lead commodities,
Commodities lead bonds.

Currently, a basket of commodities appears to be topping but may just be consolidating. Bonds appear to be bottoming but will take a cue from tangibles. We are close but the only thing that would change my mind is the FUD. If those idiots keep raising ST rates it's to kill the commodity bull. Every other business cycle has been lead by Energy (XLE/oil) and alternately Technology (XLK/QQQ) for the past forty plus years. Knowing this it's likely Tech will be a big winner WHEN commodities bust.

[MarkD]

Thought I would add a couple of items I track to monitor the flow of money in the market.

https://imgur.com/a/1NPyZVb

https://imgur.com/a/VYP6eem

Hopefully these load properly and someone finds them useful.

[Yodean]

Hopefully these load properly and someone finds them useful.

A quick look for me seems to say that the primary degree bull market has a lot further to go, despite the noise currently.

[MarkD]

That's what I see. The demand for money is not above the natural rate of interest plus inflation. Stock markets have plenty of upside.

The second takeaway. The Treasury auctions bills and bonds at a stated coupon rate. Sometimes the volume is low as the rate offered is too low, and sometimes the volume is high as the rate is too high, and sometimes they get it just right, and sometimes in between. Simplified aspect of their operations. After the auction, the secondary market participants determine if the Treasury is correct or not. Bond prices and Treasury yields in the secondary market float due to supply and demand.

Currently, the 2 year treasury yield at 2.68% is well above the Fedrate at 0.33% (this chart is delayed as the current Fedrate is 1%) shown in the chart above.

My perpective on the current state of the second takeaway as follows. The 2 year treasury (I picked this up from Tom McClellan on Twitter btw) normally tracks the Fedrate (assumed natural rate of interest). After Covid there is a significant divergence that I believe exposes the Fed. If the market participants determine what rates should be and the Fedrate is a considerably different rate, it means THE MEMBER BANKS ARE GETTING A FREE RIDE. BORROW LOW, LOAN HIGH. Indirectly a bailout hidden from the vast majority of the public.

Fiscal operations (deficit spending by Congress) have impacted market rates and the Fed ignored this issue. In fact, they told everyone they were going to allow inflation to run hotter than normal. Now they are stating they are taking it back, which is an absolute laugher. The market appears to have determined ST rates are high enough and may be rolling over. At the same time, consumers are stretched, and demand is much lower across the economy, what you would expect.

This means to me, that we need the second coming of Andrew Jackson. Those who have read TI suggested book, "The Coming Battle", already understand.

Another data point, a colleague is building a new home in Florida. They signed a contract in October of 2021 and the developer stated in their contract completion not before April of 23! He is elated that the home will now be completed in December of 22. Excess is being removed, but the Fud has no clothes imo.