Interim update May 10

[AstuteShift]

A friend just advised he is pulling the plug on his BOND account today. He has lost maybe 8%. The bottom is near.

That’s delicious news

[Yodean]

Thank you, Yodean.
Why is the option available to buy a Put above current market price?

Be careful. We're talking about _selling_ puts (cash-secured), not _buying_ puts.

_Buying_ puts is totally different! It's shorting the stock, in a way.

When you buy a put, you're essentially betting that the stock trades below your strike price b4 expiration - otherwise you lose money. That's why there is an option to buy a put with a strike above the current market price - it's a bet that during the period before expiration, the stock will stay below or go below your strike.

_Buying_ puts, whether ITM or OTM, is potentially very dangerous - I have never done it on my own yet, and will do so only following the TIT's exact trades. Maybe when the Dow challenges 39k, I will buy a put on it. We'll see ...

_Selling_ cash-secured puts (SCSP) is quite safe, once you understand the basics.

[SOL]

Three so -called strong hand traders I know big money chaps, have thrown the towel in partially. This is the first time they have taken this type of action. It is interesting since one of them went through the 1987 crash and the other handled the dot.com crash with no fear. So it appears strong hands caving in, indicates how well the psyops have worked. It also suggests that we are getting closer to a bottom as the prevailing emotion everywhere now is fear.

[bpcw]

Three so -called strong hand traders I know big money chaps, have thrown the towel in partially. This is the first time they have taken this type of action. It is interesting since one of them went through the 1987 crash and the other handled the dot.com crash with no fear. So it appears strong hands caving in, indicates how well the psyops have worked. It also suggests that we are getting closer to a bottom as the prevailing emotion everywhere now is fear.

I have followed another service to see if it can complement TI's, they use elliot waves as their primary tool and I believe the main man has been pretty good at timing turns over the last 10 years. He also talks a lot of sense regarding not following the news, it's all about sentiment (uses one of your sources) etc. However, he made a statement that caught my eye yesterday that there have been two occasions where he was confused by the market, how high the market went Dec 2019/Jan 2020 and how low the market has gone now, he abandoned his primary elliot structure down yesterday which he predicted to give us a low if US500 at 4000 but now has a new structure taking us to the 3700 region.

I wonder whether this is part of what you have been saying, that existing tools/methods/ta will fail as more and more money manipulates the markets and the big players use MP in ways to destroy the security of even the strong hands in what they know or think they know.

I must admit I have found this far more difficult than the covid correction, for one I didn't have enough cash before it started whilst I had a ton before covid but also the length of time and the number of possible bottoms. So the the mind starts to throw up massive doubts and confidence in one's system.

[SOL]

Three so -called strong hand traders I know big money chaps, have thrown the towel in partially. This is the first time they have taken this type of action. It is interesting since one of them went through the 1987 crash and the other handled the dot.com crash with no fear. So it appears strong hands caving in, indicates how well the psyops have worked. It also suggests that we are getting closer to a bottom as the prevailing emotion everywhere now is fear.

I have followed another service to see if it can complement TI's, they use elliot waves as their primary tool and I believe the main man has been pretty good at timing turns over the last 10 years. He also talks a lot of sense regarding not following the news, it's all about sentiment (uses one of your sources) etc. However, he made a statement that caught my eye yesterday that there have been two occasions where he was confused by the market, how high the market went Dec 2019/Jan 2020 and how low the market has gone now, he abandoned his primary elliot structure down yesterday which he predicted to give us a low if US500 at 4000 but now has a new structure taking us to the 3700 region.

I wonder whether this is part of what you have been saying, that existing tools/methods/ta will fail as more and more money manipulates the markets and the big players use MP in ways to destroy the security of even the strong hands in what they know or think they know.

I must admit I have found this far more difficult than the covid correction, for one I didn't have enough cash before it started whilst I had a ton before covid but also the length of time and the number of possible bottoms. So the the mind starts to throw up massive doubts and confidence in one's system.

All the trends I spoke of are advancing at a much faster clip than I have ever witnessed. In fact, the speed at which they are advancing is downright stunning. As a result, we are going to increase the weighting of MP on our systems. It appears that the two corrections we were talking of last year have now been lumped into one. And you would think this marks the end, but the big players are most likely going to trigger the third one. So instead of getting two for the year, we get two lumped into one and a third one. Because everyone will be expecting another correction, they will most likely delay this event. But there will be another correction before this cycle ends.

The next corrections intensity will depend on how high we rally from the lows. If the markets to a new high even if its only a 200 or so points higher, then the next correction won't be in the extreme ranges. If we put in a lower high then it means that the lows of today will be taken out.

We have also noticed that the big players are playing with the psychological data by playing with the mindset of traders. neutral readings have not surged past the 50 mark for years on end. This is an extremely unusual development. We are addressing this manipulation by developing our tools and using customized sources for sentiment data. But even though we have made adjustments, natural readings have still not traded past the 50 mark, which means these big players are not manipulating the physical data but they are manipulating the individuals mindset. There is an important distinction. if you manipulate data, it is far easier to spot and develop an antidote, but when you manipulate the mindset, you have to first spot that manipulation, and then you have to start determining the degree of the manipulation. So far, we have discovered that there is a deviation factor of 2-4 in the bullish reading and 2-5 in the neutral readings. For example, when we examine the sentiment data, we have to determine what the deviation factor is. If the regular data states Bulls - 47 and Neutral readings are 41. Then the real readings will fall in the 43 to 45 range for bulls, and neutral readings will fall in the 43 to 46. Neutral readings are adjusted upwards, and bullish readings are adjusted downward. I know everyone will ask why, but it would take too much time to explain why.

As to the comments I made about TA failing, what we stated is coming to pass again a lot faster than expected. The big players now have enough money to create the rules on the Fly. This must-have occurred sometime in early 2020 as the COVID crash followed no standard formula and since then the playbook is being changed on the fly. This means that standard TA should only be used to fine-tune entry points and not to determine topping or bottoming action as a standalone tool. It has to be combined with sentiment data.

Despite all this painful action, one thing will not change. The big players don't like to lose and they don't give a damn about value investing or P/E or any of those metrics. They care about getting into stocks on the cheap and selling them 3 to 10X higher than what they paid. So this means that as painful as the current correction is, the upward phase when it starts will last 4 to 5X longer.

[AstuteShift]

This is why I signed up for TI, SOL is the criminal investigator and psychologist of the market lololol

If you’re feeling overwhelmed, now is the best time to journal or even voice record your thoughts. Voice record is nicer since you can go back and hear what emotion you’re displaying and see if fear was still present. Writing in a journal is also extremely valuable.

Don’t give in to fear!

[harryg]

Very true, and additionally it does no harm to be reminded by a third party to stick to your guns*.

I write in my journal more in times like this, which means something on its own.

Hadn't thought of recording it...




*I expect that's why fat people are happy to pay someone to tell them to exercise and not eat so much. Sounds like a good gig to get into. Oi fatty - put that pie down! That'll be £75, thanks.

[bpcw]

Sol, thanks for getting back so quickly!

It seems that we have to almost think like the shadow players. They have to get the masses to sell when they want to buy, and have to do it gradually. The masses were into the 'buy the dip' narrative and so they could not just do a mild pull back as most would not sell, so they have had to create a series of crescendos with occasional strong bounces to destroy the mindset of buy the dip, and bring fear that this market could crash so that the majority sell their shares to them.

When they have made enough money from the next rise, they are going to have to get the masses to buy again, and will be gauging the mass mindset and using MP to use tricks to do this. I guess we need to see these tricks at play along with sentiment to gauge when we're approaching a top.

I think with the sentiment, you're saying that they are tricking people into thinking at one level that they are bullish for example, however, really they are nervous and their actions state they are neutral since they're not in or much in the market, they tick the bullish box when their actions are that of a neutral nervous nelly!

AstuteShift, thanks for that, sound advice with the journal, not done it enough and that is only my fault, trying to amend this.

[bpcw]

This is why I signed up for TI, SOL is the criminal investigator and psychologist of the market lololol

If you’re feeling overwhelmed, now is the best time to journal or even voice record your thoughts. Voice record is nicer since you can go back and hear what emotion you’re displaying and see if fear was still present. Writing in a journal is also extremely valuable.

Don’t give in to fear!

And we need perspective, there's always hamlet cigars!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWgnZ6d00zg

[harryg]

Remember Gregor Fisher?

Naked video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlYMID5qCdE

[SOL]

Sol, thanks for getting back so quickly!

It seems that we have to almost think like the shadow players. They have to get the masses to sell when they want to buy, and have to do it gradually. The masses were into the 'buy the dip' narrative and so they could not just do a mild pull back as most would not sell, so they have had to create a series of crescendos with occasional strong bounces to destroy the mindset of buy the dip, and bring fear that this market could crash so that the majority sell their shares to them.

When they have made enough money from the next rise, they are going to have to get the masses to buy again, and will be gauging the mass mindset and using MP to use tricks to do this. We need to see these tricks at play and sentiment to gauge when we're approaching a top.

I think with the sentiment, you're saying that they are tricking people into thinking at one level that they are bullish for example, however, really they are nervous and their actions state they are neutral since they're not in or much in the market, they tick the bullish box when their actions are that of a neutral nervous nel!ly

AstuteShift, thanks for that, sound advice with the journal, not done it enough and that is only my fault, trying to amend this.

You pretty much hit the spot and you expanded very nicely on what I mentioned above.

I guess we need to see these tricks at play along with sentiment to gauge when we're approaching a top

.
We are working on this as we speak. I have some ideas on how to adjust and deal with their dirty tricks but you can only come up with a possible solution once you spot the problem.

[Triplethought]

Three so -called strong hand traders I know big money chaps, have thrown the towel in partially. This is the first time they have taken this type of action. It is interesting since one of them went through the 1987 crash and the other handled the dot.com crash with no fear. So it appears strong hands caving in, indicates how well the psyops have worked. It also suggests that we are getting closer to a bottom as the prevailing emotion everywhere now is fear.

SOL, A friend of mine talks about the "sunk cost fallacy" which he uses to say don't be afraid to take a loss and sell if you think further losses are possible. Because if you sell today and the trend is down you can always rebuy your stock after it has fallen even more. I've never seen you talk about this, which leads me to believe you are a "keep holding even if you're losing" type of guy. So that's what I'm doing. Nothing at all short of a little nibble at apple on the way down day before yesterday.

Listening to Josh Brown compound podcast this morning he and his guest seem to think we're 20% down and almost to an official bear market and that the market has a fair amount of falling yet to do. His guest said he's sitting on a pile of cash and is chomping at the bit to get in but doesn't think the market has gone down enough yet. I inferred he's in the "wait a few more months" camp. They talked about the FED screwing up and waiting too long to clamp down on inflation and now screwing up again by going too fast too far. Like you, they think eventually the FED will be forced to back off but they mentioned the FED is going to stop bond buying in June which will further exacerbate the existing stock and bond deflation.

Now today is currently up. But I don't believe that proves we're at bottom. You seem to imply you think all this steam that has come out this year will reverse fairly quickly. Can you comment?

[Triplethought]

Interestingly I started investing in July of 2020 and my buys and sells have been about 85% TI recommendations. My experience is that at one point in early 2021 my account was up 20%. However as of today I currently have given back all those profits plus some. I will continue to hold thru this downturn but if my results are any indication TI investors are essentially tracking the "retail investor day trader army" graph shown here.

I want to amend my comment above to state that in 2020 I began slowly and by the end of 2020 I had only deployed about 2/5 of my funds and had an APR growth of at least 100% based on the funds actually invested which was WELL above the average retail investor thanks to SOL's guidance. in 2021 I continued to deploy almost every TI and AI and trend blazer buy and got up to 4/5 ths of my funds deployed. So I had a lot more at risk and the performance did not match the first 6 months and by the end of 2021 I had a sea of red in the form of unrealized losses but a pretty nice realized gain. So I think I was a little unfair to imply that Tactical investor did no better than the average retail investor day trader army. Also the chunk of investing I did on my own recognizance or by missing buy or sell signals TI put out is be very relevant to my overall sucky performance in 2021. I did stupid things like "catch a falling knife" deploying 5 or 6 lots on SOL's plays that officially we only had 2 lots of. Or buying Zillow. Also got a little too aggressive with SOL's option recommendations only to learn that when you put a specific date and price on things it's much harder to be right. If I was retired I'd have time to keep up my spreadsheet doing deep analysis of everything. As it is all the plays are so complex there's a bit of back of the envelope math trying to see how I'm doing and estimating how much of success or failure I've had

[SOL]

Three so -called strong hand traders I know big money chaps, have thrown the towel in partially. This is the first time they have taken this type of action. It is interesting since one of them went through the 1987 crash and the other handled the dot.com crash with no fear. So it appears strong hands caving in, indicates how well the psyops have worked. It also suggests that we are getting closer to a bottom as the prevailing emotion everywhere now is fear.

SOL, A friend of mine talks about the "sunk cost fallacy" which he uses to say don't be afraid to take a loss and sell if you think further losses are possible. Because if you sell today and the trend is down you can always rebuy your stock after it has fallen even more. I've never seen you talk about this, which leads me to believe you are a "keep holding even if you're losing" type of guy. So that's what I'm doing. Nothing at all short of a little nibble at apple on the way down day before yesterday.

Listening to Josh Brown compound podcast this morning he and his guest seem to think we're 20% down and almost to an official bear market and that the market has a fair amount of falling yet to do. His guest said he's sitting on a pile of cash and is chomping at the bit to get in but doesn't think the market has gone down enough yet. I inferred he's in the "wait a few more months" camp. They talked about the FED screwing up and waiting too long to clamp down on inflation and now screwing up again by going too fast too far. Like you, they think eventually the FED will be forced to back off but they mentioned the FED is going to stop bond buying in June which will further exacerbate the existing stock and bond deflation.

Now today is currently up. But I don't believe that proves we're at bottom. You seem to imply you think all this steam that has come out this year will reverse fairly quickly. Can you comment?

one simple question how has your friend fared with this strategy over the long run. As far as losers go, many of them will turn into winners. those that don't can be sold at a higher price instead of selling at the bottom. in most cases if you hold onto stocks that are trading in the oversold ranges, roughly 80% will recoup their losses.

[bpcw]

Remember Gregor Fisher?

Naked video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlYMID5qCdE

Yeah, hilarious one!