Geopoltical Interim Update may 4, 2022

[SOL]

Random topics are discussed in this update, but they all coalesce around one central point of manipulation on multiple fronts, inside and outside the market. If the west wanted to end this manufactured inflation, they could do so tomorrow, but they will continue with sanctions that don't work. If they were working, the Rouble would be trading north of 100; instead, it is now at 67.00. Remember, currency markets lead the way, providing subtle clues about what to expect. What is even more amazing about the Rouble's strength is that it is taking place in the face of a strong dollar. Western currencies (AUS, Kiwi, Loonie, Euro, Pound, even the Yen) are getting decimated, but the Russian Rouble is gaining strength. Imagine what will happen when the USD tops in 2023.
This strength in the Rouble indicated that major world players are moving out of the dollar. I mean all those individuals with money that are wealthy and part of Eurasia's landmass


Look at the price of electricity in Europe, and this is simply unsustainable for economic growth in the long run.



The second graph shows electricity prices for Russia and other countries and you can immediately spot where the future growth is going to come from.


Electricity prices have already risen as the second chart is dated


Other developments

Russia also appears to have blocked 500 billion worth of Western Assets in Russia, which more than offsets the 300 billion they lost



More importantly, gas supplies from Gazprom to China have increased by 60% compared to the same period in 2021. Once all the new pipelines are completed, and I am sure they are building them faster, Russia can replace all of Europe with Asia, but Europe will never find a supply of gas that was so cheap. Therefore, it means that unless Europe does something really fast, Europe will become a toxic place to invest. In years to come, we won't be surprised if most of the German industry will have to move to Asia and then into Russia to survive out of pure shame.

[zipsaw]

Sol,
Thank you for this analysis. I very much appreciate the geopolitical and financial combination you are putting out.
My question to you is, does demographics inside countries effect this analysis?

Russia and China along with Europe do not have replacement birth rates. At some point the populations decrease in the countries may stop but the question will be at what point does the population decrease effect the economy.

Zipsaw

[Eric]

If you have a great economy while other places are burning down you can import people... And unlike the USA they'll probably only take great people (highly skilled & productive).

[nicolas]

What's different this time is automation and increased productivity from AI can address the issue of a decreasing population without the social frictions and down pressure on wages observed with a mass immigration policy.

[Yodean]

What's different this time is automation and increased productivity from AI can address the issue of a decreasing population without the social frictions and down pressure on wages observed with a mass immigration policy.

Indeed, and the WFA (Work From Anywhere) pendulum means you may virtually "import" a lower-waged worker's production easily from other countries, without the actual worker living in your country and soaking up the social benefits granted by the Neo-marxist states.

[SOL]

The Fed raises rates and the rouble still gains strength. It is now trading at 66.09 despite the largest rate hike in 2 decades.

[AstuteShift]

The Fed raises rates and the rouble still gains strength. It is now trading at 66.09 despite the largest rate hike in 2 decades.

Great rally on tech also, so much for the fear mongering morons, let’s see if it continues to the ultimate feeding frenzy ever

[LoriPrecisely]

What's different this time is automation and increased productivity from AI can address the issue of a decreasing population without the social frictions and down pressure on wages observed with a mass immigration policy.

Indeed, and the WFA (Work From Anywhere) pendulum means you may virtually "import" a lower-waged worker's production easily from other countries, without the actual worker living in your country and soaking up the social benefits granted by the Neo-marxist states.

Interesting thing about that is companies are actually stating that their customer service is U.S. based. Guess too many people complained about not being able to understand Indian.

[Eric]

The Fed raises rates and the rouble still gains strength. It is now trading at 66.09 despite the largest rate hike in 2 decades.

Democrat party election slogan: "Make Russia Great Again!"

MRGA!

[SOL]

What's different this time is automation and increased productivity from AI can address the issue of a decreasing population without the social frictions and down pressure on wages observed with a mass immigration policy.

Indeed, and the WFA (Work From Anywhere) pendulum means you may virtually "import" a lower-waged worker's production easily from other countries, without the actual worker living in your country and soaking up the social benefits granted by the Neo-marxist states.

Interesting thing about that is companies are actually stating that their customer service is U.S. based. Guess too many people complained about not being able to understand Indian.

AI customer service is improving in leaps and bounds. Soon Humans won't be needed for that Job. The AI program will be able to look at your history and say Yes Lori is a good customer she always pays her bills on time, so we can waive the late fee this time and possibly once more this year. The same feature can be applied to other services offered. If you are a brand new customer, AI can check your voice for unusual patterns. Are you stressed, is this stress related to you just being nervous or to something more mischievous like you trying to game the system etc.

The carbon component is becoming less essential especially in the west, where the new slogan just be, Woke and going broke

[scott]

The Fed raises rates and the rouble still gains strength. It is now trading at 66.09 despite the largest rate hike in 2 decades.

Democrat party election slogan: "Make Russia Great Again!"

MRGA!

Apparently Russia has been planning this for years. America trying to stay in the game, but it seems all over except for the excuses.

[SOL]

The Fed raises rates and the rouble still gains strength. It is now trading at 66.09 despite the largest rate hike in 2 decades.

Democrat party election slogan: "Make Russia Great Again!"

MRGA!

Apparently Russia has been planning this for years. America trying to stay in the game, but it seems all over except for the excuses.

Scott you are in the right place at the right time. I was not able to get as many roubles as I wanted to, but I got some at an incredible rate. We are very close to a screaming buy signal on Russia. What is going to happen now that Russia proved the rouble is a force to be reckoned with, the Central bank will continue to aggressively lower rates to push the Rouble slightly lower but more importantly to stimulate local investment by making it cheaper to borrow money?

The next step there is going to be a big push to upgrade all higher learning centres especially engineering, math and other sciences such as biochemistry, biology, etc.

[scott]

Scott you are in the right place at the right time. I was not able to get as many roubles as I wanted to, but I got some at an incredible rate. We are very close to a screaming buy signal on Russia. What is going to happen now that Russia proved the rouble is a force to be reckoned with, the Central bank will continue to aggressively lower rates to push the Rouble slightly lower but more importantly to stimulate local investment by making it cheaper to borrow money?

The next step there is going to be a big push to upgrade all higher learning centres especially engineering, math and other sciences such as biochemistry, biology, etc.

By Russia, do you mean MOEX, or something else in mind?

[SOL]

Scott you are in the right place at the right time. I was not able to get as many roubles as I wanted to, but I got some at an incredible rate. We are very close to a screaming buy signal on Russia. What is going to happen now that Russia proved the rouble is a force to be reckoned with, the Central bank will continue to aggressively lower rates to push the Rouble slightly lower but more importantly to stimulate local investment by making it cheaper to borrow money?

The next step there is going to be a big push to upgrade all higher learning centres especially engineering, math and other sciences such as biochemistry, biology, etc.

By Russia, do you mean MOEX, or something else in mind?

It will start off with MOEX, but it will morph into Russia the country itself.

[LoriPrecisely]

I assume I will have to get on Interactive Brokers for that one? As it does not show up on Schwab.