Interim Update April 28, 2022

[SOL]

Neutral investors stand at 37, and the bears come in at 50, so 87% of investors are either uncertain or in a pessimistic mode. To state this was a humungous development would be an understatement. It was something we thought we would witness in the 4th quarter, and it suggests something strange or out of the norm will occur in the 4th quarter. More on that in a future update. So why is this a massive development? Something like this does not happen when most indices are trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts

. Market Update April 17th, 2022

We have processed 87% of the data, and it appears that bullish sentiment is going to match last week’s multi-decade low of 13% and possibly dip even lower. Even if it just matches last week’s reading, it would be an unprecedented development. However, what is particularly noteworthy is that bearish sentiment will probably come in at or close to 60. A reading of 60 would put it at multi-decade high levels. Our Anxiety index is trading at an all-time new extreme and is almost at the very end of the Madness zone and the needle on the idiots' index has moved deeply into the stupid zone, which is a very bullish sentiment. On multiple fronts, we are witnessing extreme readings.

Other developments

The USD is trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the weekly charts, indicating that it's time to let out some steam. When this occurs a ton of money from the currency markets will move into the equity markets.


The update will be sent over the weekend.

[Centeron631]

Sol i need some clarifications on the charts - are u using stockcharts.com paid subscription? any good freebies?

Now i know charts can vary with the time frames and in looking at some especially in 032922 ai (simply because issue was all charts) - it now appears U r using almost exclusively 2 year weekly charts? from what i see - is there any designation other than 2 year weekly? will a 3 year weekly give the same patterns from the 2 year mark on?

Also i believe in past u were using charts with maximum period stock was around and also perhaps they were monthly charts

Could U please explain the useage of charts in this respect and whether they can vary substantially from charting company to charting company and what to look out for in selecting the chart time frames and frequencies? And how the variance works with the type of markets we r in at the relevant time. thks

[cristiano7subo]

Looks like we are entering the last bout of the Q1 blood bath. Got into a handful of recommended plays at mouth watering price points. Going to hold through this one to reap the benefits

[jonnyfrank]

Was an update sent out? Did I miss it?

[MarkD]

Has not arrived in my email yet. Suspect it will drop later today/tomorrow JIT for the FED.

Party like it's 1999!

[SOL]

We are going through an immense amount of data mainly in the geopolitical arena so the update will either be sent out within a few hours if it can be done or early tomorrow. The data on the geopolitical frontier is massive and it appears a new nascent buy signal might be in the works, but it's in a place very few will consider today. More on this is the update

[SOL]

Sol i need some clarifications on the charts - are u using stockcharts.com paid subscription? any good freebies?

Now i know charts can vary with the time frames and in looking at some especially in 032922 ai (simply because issue was all charts) - it now appears U r using almost exclusively 2 year weekly charts? from what i see - is there any designation other than 2 year weekly? will a 3 year weekly give the same patterns from the 2 year mark on?

Also i believe in past u were using charts with maximum period stock was around and also perhaps they were monthly charts

Could U please explain the useage of charts in this respect and whether they can vary substantially from charting company to charting company and what to look out for in selecting the chart time frames and frequencies? And how the variance works with the type of markets we r in at the relevant time. thks

We use customised software. Weekly time frames are for the intermediate trend, monthly for the long term trend. So when you see weekly charts you can assume that we are discussing the intermediate trend.

tradingview. com is good charting place. It's freemium, so you only pay if you want to use all the features which you might not need.

2 year or 10 year weekly will yield the same pattern as will a 5 or 20 year monthly chart


Focus on what you see, don't worry if the pattern differs from service to service. If you spot a pattern and stick with it, you should be fine, but understand TA is for fine-tuning entry and exit points. We don't use it as a stand-alone tool.

[Centeron631]

thks for clarification Sol on Chart time lengths.

Now i must admit the more i read the articles on "the trend" the more confused i become (sorry Sol , sorry centeron) : just reread Investment philosopy Keep it Simple (https://tacticalinvestor.com/investment-philosophy/) which led me to the Trend Indicator Aritcle and statements like: The trend indicator accurately determines if a market is in the process of puting in a top or a bottom; The Trend Indicator is simple and easy to follow and if it is up we open long positions on pullbacks; We mainly focus on the Psychological and technical aspect of the stock and or index in question. To date, this strategy has proved to be invaluable.
Objective 1. make the investment process as simple as possible # i still await this time
Objective 2. Identify the Trend see my interjection comments on the Trend Indicator below
Objective #3 the Selection Process)
We combine mass psychology, technical analysis and a bit of fundamental analysis to determine whether we will get into a play or not. We mainly focus on the Psychological and technical aspect of the stock and or index in question. To date, this strategy has proved to be invaluable.
Stage 1) The structure and trend of the most popular indices S&P, Dow and Nasdaq are examined. Under the market commentary section, the overall trend of the market is examined and discussed. If the trend is up, then index traders are told to view pullbacks as buying opportunities and strong pullbacks as even better buying opportunities. Our instructions are concise and simple.
Stage 2) Once the overall trend of the market is identified, we then issue plays that are poised to benefit the most from the stated trend. If the trend is up, then we look for long plays. If the trend is neutral, we still long issue plays, albeit fewer plays; for until the trend turns negative we will not short the markets. Even when it turns negative, the advice to conservative players is to sit on the sidelines. We focus on sectors that the Trend indicator has turned bullish on and vice versa.

Centeron interjection
My commentary and confusion: First of all i believe when u mention the Trend Indicator Sol u r referring to the thing saying a) Trend Indidator at the top of Every update? which i believe since i joined in Summer of 2020 has registered bullish only - when was the last time frame(s) it registered bearish and im assuming investing was terrible and negative results during that period for long positions? and how do u arrive at this one as not clear in coded article after many rereadings?
but then U augment with Trend at the market levels of the main indicies and define "trend" there and then say b) "once the overall trend of the market is identified..... if the trend is up we look for long plays. So Sol is this just referring to the b) trend or a) trend or both ? .....until the trend turns negative we will not short the markets - again a) or b) or both?
Stage 3) of Objective 3. to zoom in on plays in the following categories : resources, trend plays based on our trend indicator (WHICH ONE? a) or b)), insider plays, value plays, seasonal trends, momentum plays. # is this something we do on our own as a trade range comes into fruition or is it just built in generally to the compilation of stock recos Ti makes and does not require the member to factor into the making of his/her individual trades? ( I believe in the past u have stated it is not necessary to have sector diversification).
Objective # 4 Get into the strongest plays
Once the trend is identified, we select plays that will perform the best in the direction identified by the trend. If the trend is up, we will look for the best stocks to open long positions in, and vice versa. It is important to note that we do not rely on, nor do we use simple technical analysis tools/indicators. We employ a combination of proprietary....
INterjection : what trend is meant here? So the word "trend" is employed so many times in so many contexts without many particularizations (such as maybe super trend, macro trend, micro trend, the trend. sector trend, is different for AI) I am trending " trend crazy " - please help Sol with sorting this out and ongoing in some fashion- sincere thanks in advance.

[Yodean]

thks for clarification Sol on Chart time lengths.

Now i must admit the more i read the articles on "the trend" the more confused i become (sorry Sol , sorry centeron) : just reread Investment philosopy Keep it Simple (https://tacticalinvestor.com/investment-philosophy/) which led me to the Trend Indicator Aritcle and statements like: The trend indicator accurately determines if a market is in the process of puting in a top or a bottom; The Trend Indicator is simple and easy to follow and if it is up we open long positions on pullbacks; We mainly focus on the Psychological and technical aspect of the stock and or index in question. To date, this strategy has proved to be invaluable.
Objective 1. make the investment process as simple as possible # i still await this time
Objective 2. Identify the Trend see my interjection comments on the Trend Indicator below
Objective #3 the Selection Process)
We combine mass psychology, technical analysis and a bit of fundamental analysis to determine whether we will get into a play or not. We mainly focus on the Psychological and technical aspect of the stock and or index in question. To date, this strategy has proved to be invaluable.
Stage 1) The structure and trend of the most popular indices S&P, Dow and Nasdaq are examined. Under the market commentary section, the overall trend of the market is examined and discussed. If the trend is up, then index traders are told to view pullbacks as buying opportunities and strong pullbacks as even better buying opportunities. Our instructions are concise and simple.
Stage 2) Once the overall trend of the market is identified, we then issue plays that are poised to benefit the most from the stated trend. If the trend is up, then we look for long plays. If the trend is neutral, we still long issue plays, albeit fewer plays; for until the trend turns negative we will not short the markets. Even when it turns negative, the advice to conservative players is to sit on the sidelines. We focus on sectors that the Trend indicator has turned bullish on and vice versa.

Centeron interjection
My commentary and confusion: First of all i believe when u mention the Trend Indicator Sol u r referring to the thing saying a) Trend Indidator at the top of Every update? which i believe since i joined in Summer of 2020 has registered bullish only - when was the last time frame(s) it registered bearish and im assuming investing was terrible and negative results during that period for long positions? and how do u arrive at this one as not clear in coded article after many rereadings?
but then U augment with Trend at the market levels of the main indicies and define "trend" there and then say b) "once the overall trend of the market is identified..... if the trend is up we look for long plays. So Sol is this just referring to the b) trend or a) trend or both ? .....until the trend turns negative we will not short the markets - again a) or b) or both?
Stage 3) of Objective 3. to zoom in on plays in the following categories : resources, trend plays based on our trend indicator (WHICH ONE? a) or b)), insider plays, value plays, seasonal trends, momentum plays. # is this something we do on our own as a trade range comes into fruition or is it just built in generally to the compilation of stock recos Ti makes and does not require the member to factor into the making of his/her individual trades? ( I believe in the past u have stated it is not necessary to have sector diversification).
Objective # 4 Get into the strongest plays
Once the trend is identified, we select plays that will perform the best in the direction identified by the trend. If the trend is up, we will look for the best stocks to open long positions in, and vice versa. It is important to note that we do not rely on, nor do we use simple technical analysis tools/indicators. We employ a combination of proprietary....
INterjection : what trend is meant here? So the word "trend" is employed so many times in so many contexts without many particularizations (such as maybe super trend, macro trend, micro trend, the trend. sector trend, is different for AI) I am trending " trend crazy " - please help Sol with sorting this out and ongoing in some fashion- sincere thanks in advance.

Oh boy, this is what happens when you have a former lawyer investing during volatile times ... lmao ...@centeron: I may be wrong, but you were in the legal profession when you were younger, right?

You're over-complicating this. The Trend Indicator is the primary degree, long-term trend - i.e. years - that's why it's always "Bullish."

We are in a primary degree bull trend in equities, but you could have crazy corrections during this period, i.e. like >40% smackdowns, while the primary degree bull trend in equities remains intact. The other points you make are pretty self-explanatory, if you don't overcomplicate what the TIT writes.

[AstuteShift]

Best to not go too crazy, analyzing the trend seems simple but it’s not also. A paradox unto itself

As the last update stated, SOL and his team can’t hand hold you on how to trade, eventually you have to treat it like a great guide or compass and make your own trades

The principles and knowledge from the free articles, MU updates and books are priceless information that are timeless in a sense

[SOL]

LoriPrecisely I think could explain this better in layman's terms

Simple points
Don't confuse concepts from one service to another
focus on the information discussed in the latest updates, which clearly state that our primary tool is TA.
We don't focus on sectors we focus on stocks that trigger strong patterns, so if you do this, you will inadvertently invest in various sectors. Look at the plays in the MU they are not in one sector.

The main trend to focus on is the long term trend. The other short term trends when they are discussed are for more aggressive traders,