Interim Market Update April 25

[SOL]

Nothing has changed, the trend is still positive, but the corrective phase is lasting longer as the world digests the impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia. This was the black swan event. The war, rising rates, etc are all minor in scope compared to the effects these sanctions will have on the world especially Europe. Europe needs to decide where it stands fast, for it is on track to be blown into the stone ages. There is no alternatives to Russian energy and raw materials for the foreseeable future. The biggest loser is going to be Germany.

Note that the USD has continued to trend higher, while the pound and Euro are struggling. The US for now has the power to get through this sanction mess but Europe has no alternatives. Hence, the markets are oscillating between fear and hysteria. Over the short term, extreme moves can be expected in both directions, but in the long run the US markets are fine at least for the next 3-5 years.

As long one is not investing money they need for rent and food, the outcome will be favourable over the long run as the main stocks we are investing (main portfolio) will trend higher in the years to come.

We are working on the next update, but there is an immense amount of data we have to look at, and increasingly the geo-political factor has to be considered and given more weight for it is going to influence the playing field for years to come.

[Yodean]

... and increasingly the geo-political factor has to be considered and given more weight for it is going to influence the playing field for years to come.

I've always wondered about the notion that the markets "price in" the worst (or best) of the news, or geopolitical events, before they hit the mainstream media. If this is somewhat true, and also in line with current sentiment levels, we should be bottoming in the tech sector right about now, or perhaps around the time of the slew of earnings reports next week or so.

Factoring in Scott Ritter's analysis of the current Russian Special Operations in Ukraine, Russia is close to accomplishing its main objectives, which may lead to a lull in hostilities (i.e. markets will go up) for a time, despite the Western Bullies' insistent attempts to prolong the conflict.

[SOL]

... and increasingly the geo-political factor has to be considered and given more weight for it is going to influence the playing field for years to come.

I've always wondered about the notion that the markets "price in" the worst (or best) of the news, or geopolitical events, before they hit the mainstream media. If this is somewhat true, and also in line with current sentiment levels, we should be bottoming in the tech sector right about now, or perhaps around the time of the slew of earnings reports next week or so.

Factoring in Scott Ritter's analysis of the current Russian Special Operations in Ukraine, Russia is close to accomplishing its main objectives, which may lead to a lull in hostilities (i.e. markets will go up) for a time, despite the Western Bullies' insistent attempts to prolong the conflict.

The one and only reason I give Scott's views value is because he states no one should believe him and that they should double check everything he states. On that front he is a great American. he has been censored on Twitter and FB, as in eliminated. The dude definitely appears to know his S**T

[Centeron631]

Yeah Sol maybe this is like a sink hole as there was no crescendo (market run-up) into this - which may be the very definition of Black Swan event?

IN line with some of previous language are we in MOAB yet or maybe a YAOAB or a TOAB (YA - young adult) (T teenage) making up some more grades of OAB where are we now? We all know how irradic most teenagers can be with the hormonal thing going on! Also i guess differing with the AI and MU or hiTech/ai vs non.....?

[Yodean]

he has been censored on Twitter and FB, as in eliminated. The dude definitely appears to know his S**T

It's a variation of that saying, "Read the books that they want to burn."

Listen to those who have been banned from Twitter and FB. At least consider their views a bit.

I had my doubts about Scott initially (i.e. suspicion of being likely controlled opposition), given his background in the USSA's military, as well as Intelligence services. But he gained a lot of respect in my eyes when he admitted openly that what the USSA military did in Afghanistan and a host of other places basically amounted to the murder of innocent civilians - he was an active part of some of those operations.

Ritter mentions this in that last clip you posted (the Part 2 one). Much respect to someone willing to essentially admit that he was an active participant in the murder of helpless innocents, in the interests of America, Land of the Free, Home of the Brave.

[SOL]

Yeah Sol maybe this is like a sink hole as there was no crescendo (market run-up) into this - which may be the very definition of Black Swan event?

IN line with some of previous language are we in MOAB yet or maybe a YAOAB or a TOAB (YA - young adult) (T teenage) making up some more grades of OAB where are we now? We all know how irradic most teenagers can be with the hormonal thing going on! Also i guess differing with the AI and MU or hiTech/ai vs non.....?

I will say this, you are a lot wiser than you give yourself credit for, there are very few individuals that bank 5 years of expenses in advance of any event. In that sense I salute you. This is black swan event but there is the saying that you can't fight the trend no matter how hard you try. Everyone is panicking or nervous so from a long term perspective (the only perspective that matters) this is a great buying opportunity provide you don't invest money you need for your daily living expenses. If you invest money you need to survive then you move into the speculator category and speculators are begging to be destroyed

[bpcw]

The sentiment figures must be screaming by now but perhaps we are entering into extreme readings being the norm!

[harryg]

We'll have to see if SOL can come up with something stronger than insane.

Rabidly oversold?

It might feel worse, but Nasdaq now is around where it was mid March. Not yet lower.

[Yodean]

IN line with some of previous language are we in MOAB yet or maybe a YAOAB or a TOAB (YA - young adult) (T teenage) making up some more grades of OAB where are we now?

From a contrarian perspective, one of the most telling personal sentiment indicators I use was triggered today.

I procrastinated from logging into my brokerage account this morning, knowing the Sea of Exponentially Increasing Red I would confront.

The last time this signal was triggered was around mid-March of this year, when the Nas. Comp. dipped below 12.7k. The only other times this occurred was a few times during the cv19 plandemic (i.e. March '20).

So yeh, we're probably at some sort of bottom in the tech sector, or very, very close, based on this indicator. Some of my ultra high risk small cap tech (e.g. GTLB, SNOW, UPST, MNDY, DLO, S, etc.) appear to be reversing their downtrends (or could be dead kitty bounces).

I've pretty much maxxed out my accumulation-buying. So now, I'm at the stage where I sell something in order to buy something else.

Once I do a little more research, will likely try out that SCC (Selling Covered Calls) strategy to generate additional income. I'm a SCC virgin atm.

https://youtu.be/s__rX_WL100

[bpcw]

We'll have to see if SOL can come up with something stronger than insane.

Rabidly oversold?

It might feel worse, but Nasdaq now is around where it was mid March. Not yet lower.

The Nasdaq is higher than March but when the masses see it approaching the previous low fear goes up even more as they start to believe it's going into free fall when they had built up so much hope in a bottom previously (which it still could be or somewhere close), bullish readings on Thursday were ridiculous with the Nasdaq at 14200 at the Wed close. Having said that, we're not going to be able to know the exact bottom accept in hindsight but surely we're close.

Perhaps we should start to use imagery for extreme sentiment readings such as this one

https://media.giphy.com/media/t7fTZB37asHWE/giphy.gif

[bpcw]

Or this one for just the Christian subscribers!

https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6Mbbdcm ... /giphy.gif

[hooligan]

awesome update:)

if anyone regularly plays options on index ETFs in accordance with TI, please hmu because that's a strategy i'm more and more gravitating towards.

[chippermon]

awesome update:)

if anyone regularly plays options on index ETFs in accordance with TI, please hmu because that's a strategy i'm more and more gravitating towards.

It's funny you mention that. I just got out of some nice option plays this morning that I have only held since last Wednesday. I do like trading the SQQQ and TQQQ options that are close to expiry but I have started to gravitate towards the stocks.

It all started when Sol had us do that quick turn around on AAL a couple months ago. I was shocked to see the amount of volume and open interest that exists even right up until the day of expiry. So, I started looking at it a little closer. I made a list of the 50 most active stocks options. Then I narrowed it down to 25. I have a few simple indicators that I use and I combine it with some Fibonacci retracements and I just play the swings. My BAC, WFC, DIS have done well. Held them for around 3-5 days. I balled up PFE. Total loss, but, I took out calls for expiry in May on that one so I might have a chance but I doubt it. The others only had about two weeks on them.

Right now I'm eying up TWTR, GM, AAL, XOM, NIO. No signal yet but waiting. These are just possibilities at this time. I won't move until I get a signal. I like to shoot for targets too for my exit. I notice that when price clears .786 of the move it generally goes to 1.272 of the swing. Sometimes it goes farther but......

I was hot for those ETF's for a while there but I get more possibilities this way. With the way I'm using the charts this method suites me better. For me, I do not feel that ETFs lend themselves well to long term option positions but to be fair I haven't really spent a lot of time studying that aspect of them.

But more to your statement, yeah, there are some possibilities there for sure.

[jlhooter]

We are working on the next update, but there is an immense amount of data we have to look at, and increasingly the geo-political factor has to be considered and given more weight for it is going to influence the playing field for years to come.

jlhooter here:
I am traveling for business this week and dont have access to the spreadsheet so if the update comes out before Friday I wont update the sheet till the weekend Sorry for the delay

[SOL]

We are working on the next update, but there is an immense amount of data we have to look at, and increasingly the geo-political factor has to be considered and given more weight for it is going to influence the playing field for years to come.

jlhooter here:
I am traveling for business this week and dont have access to the spreadsheet so if the update comes out before Friday I wont update the sheet till the weekend Sorry for the delay

No need to apologise and as Yodean would put it bossninja approves of your move. You are rendering a free service and what's good for you comes first. End of story

Live like it's your last day for one day it bloody will be