TIT Debriefing requested by subs

[SOL]

I don't know how it is for others who buy your guidance, but for me, it has been a huge learning curve. I have read and re-read your articles on your website. I have read and re-read the Market Updates. I look up the definitions of the words associated with this subject, and print the pages and take notes. I have filled up an entire binder, and am just starting a second one. I also know it is impossible to know exact timing for the ups and downs of the markets. Anyone who does stock market trading has to see it for what it is, a challenge and a risk, with rewards and stresses. Game On!!!

We will publish a lot of new information on this topic. The first one will be published next week and investors like you, centeron, etc can chime in and tell us what needs to be added, clarified or removed.

A sample of the first strategy is posted below

A straightforward strategy but almost nobody follows it because it is so simple and we mentioned it in the past. And one point we would mention it a lot more often but it fell on deaf ears. If this strategy is put to use it makes investing a lot simpler and the learning curve is quite gentle. However, it requires extreme discipline and patience. The best way to test this strategy is to have two accounts. If you don't have a separate account, it will be tough to learn anything.

1) Buy when the markets let out a large dose of steam and the bullish sentiment has fallen into the 15 to 20% ranges or bearish readings are north of 51. You will have plenty of time to come up with a list of good stocks that you want to get into. For the past several years the markets have been providing at least one good opportunity per year, sometimes more.

2) if you are conservative, close all your positions once you are showing gains of 30% or more. Now let's say you think the markets are going to go higher and you don't want to give up all those potential gains. Then you can take some of your money and purchase calls. However, you have to implement this formula (no deviations allowed) For every 100 shares you owned purchase one call only. If you own 150, okay you can round it off to two calls. If you had 120, round it off to one call. Your upside is unlimited and your downside is limited.

3) As soon as bullish readings trade past 50, close all long positions and move into cash or treasuries.

4) if you are not conservative and don't mind taking some risks. Use the following strategy. As soon as the major indices are trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts, close 50% of your longs. Now start selling covered calls on the rest of your positions. When bullish readings trade above 50 twice in a row, then close all your long positions.


It takes very little effort to put 1 to 3 into practice, the rate of success is very high, and stress is kept low but as stated you need extreme levels of patience and discipline.

[AstuteShift]

Take your time learning the TI methodology, it took me 1 year and a half honestly.

The key, is to view trading like an art form. Also the mindset of the markets choosing you instead of you chasing it.

I view it, we’re rebels doing digital art

[jlhooter]

Take your time learning the TI methodology, it took me 1 year and a half honestly.

The key, is to view trading like an art form. Also the mindset of the markets choosing you instead of you chasing it.

I view it, we’re rebels doing digital art

Agreed and it is like black magic with heavy individual interpretation (meaning everyone can see the same thing differently), and teaching it or trying to explain it is what Sol said in the past: "it's like trying to describe the color green to a blind person."

[kcun333]

I think it would be helpful to provide the percentage of total investment one should have in cash in the analyses instead of the number of lots as we all trade using a different number of lots. Having 4-6 lots in cash for some would be maybe 40 percent of their total investment while for others it may only be 10 percent.

[bpcw]

I don't know how it is for others who buy your guidance, but for me, it has been a huge learning curve. I have read and re-read your articles on your website. I have read and re-read the Market Updates. I look up the definitions of the words associated with this subject, and print the pages and take notes. I have filled up an entire binder, and am just starting a second one. I also know it is impossible to know exact timing for the ups and downs of the markets. Anyone who does stock market trading has to see it for what it is, a challenge and a risk, with rewards and stresses. Game On!!!

We will publish a lot of new information on this topic. The first one will be published next week and investors like you, centeron, etc can chime in and tell us what needs to be added, clarified or removed.

A sample of the first strategy is posted below

A straightforward strategy but almost nobody follows it because it is so simple and we mentioned it in the past. And one point we would mention it a lot more often but it fell on deaf ears. If this strategy is put to use it makes investing a lot simpler and the learning curve is quite gentle. However, it requires extreme discipline and patience. The best way to test this strategy is to have two accounts. If you don't have a separate account, it will be tough to learn anything.

1) Buy when the markets let out a large dose of steam and the bullish sentiment has fallen into the 15 to 20% ranges or bearish readings are north of 51. You will have plenty of time to come up with a list of good stocks that you want to get into. For the past several years the markets have been providing at least one good opportunity per year, sometimes more.

2) if you are conservative, close all your positions once you are showing gains of 30% or more. Now let's say you think the markets are going to go higher and you don't want to give up all those potential gains. Then you can take some of your money and purchase calls. However, you have to implement this formula (no deviations allowed) For every 100 shares you owned purchase one call only. If you own 150, okay you can round it off to two calls. If you had 120, round it off to one call. Your upside is unlimited and your downside is limited.

3) As soon as bullish readings trade past 50, close all long positions and move into cash or treasuries.

4) if you are not conservative and don't mind taking some risks. Use the following strategy. As soon as the major indices are trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts, close 50% of your longs. Now start selling covered calls on the rest of your positions. When bullish readings trade above 50 twice in a row, then close all your long positions.


It takes very little effort to put 1 to 3 into practice, the rate of success is very high, and stress is kept low but as stated you need extreme levels of patience and discipline.

This or something slightly adjusted (perhaps without the futures investments which can be hard to understand) I think is excellent advice, it's a good start for the less experienced or those who don't want/have time, to stick to for a certain period and modify gradually as they learn and grow in experience.

Also thank you Sol, for not responding to some of these comments defensively but looking to see if you can improve the service to the inexperienced such as me, this truly makes you and TIT unique. This is a brilliant service.

[bpcw]

I think it would be helpful to provide the percentage of total investment one should have in cash in the analyses instead of the number of lots as we all trade using a different number of lots. Having 4-6 lots in cash for some would be maybe 40 percent of their total investment while for others it may only be 10 percent.

Yes I agree absolutely.

[Yodean]

I think it would be helpful to provide the percentage of total investment one should have in cash in the analyses instead of the number of lots as we all trade using a different number of lots.

Another very quick, rough way of allocating cash % is to use the bullish or bearish sentiment values.

So as bullish sentiment rises past 50% and bearish values dips below 20%, one should increasingly allocate more to one's cash position (i.e. sell and take profits), and vice versa.

So at current sentiment measures (i.e. extremely high bearish, insanely low bullish), the high-risk investor is almost "all-in" in terms of equity exposure, with potential use of margin, while the moderate and low-risk investors are correspondingly less exposed to equities, but relative to their risk categories have heavy equity exposure, and less cash allocation, than at other times.

[bpcw]

I think it would be helpful to provide the percentage of total investment one should have in cash in the analyses instead of the number of lots as we all trade using a different number of lots.

Another very quick, rough way of allocating cash % is to use the bullish or bearish sentiment values.

So as bullish sentiment rises past 50% and bearish values dips below 20%, one should increasingly allocate more to one's cash position (i.e. sell and take profits), and vice versa.

So at current sentiment measures (i.e. extremely high bearish, insanely low bullish), the high-risk investor is almost "all-in" in terms of equity exposure, with potential use of margin, while the moderate and low-risk investors are correspondingly less exposed to equities, but relative to their risk categories have heavy equity exposure, and less cash allocation, than at other times.

That's a very good idea Yodean, seems so obvious now you mention it!

[SOL]

I think it would be helpful to provide the percentage of total investment one should have in cash in the analyses instead of the number of lots as we all trade using a different number of lots.

Another very quick, rough way of allocating cash % is to use the bullish or bearish sentiment values.

So as bullish sentiment rises past 50% and bearish values dips below 20%, one should increasingly allocate more to one's cash position (i.e. sell and take profits), and vice versa.

So at current sentiment measures (i.e. extremely high bearish, insanely low bullish), the high-risk investor is almost "all-in" in terms of equity exposure, with potential use of margin, while the moderate and low-risk investors are correspondingly less exposed to equities, but relative to their risk categories have heavy equity exposure, and less cash allocation, than at other times.

That's a very good idea Yodean, seems so obvious now you mention it!

The best things in life are free. The most valuable life lessons are obvious but oblivious to the majority because the simplicity of the lessons is what adds to their complexity]. Everyone assumes something valuable has to be earned the hard way when proper observation is probably responsible for 90% of real learning

[bpcw]

Another very quick, rough way of allocating cash % is to use the bullish or bearish sentiment values.

So as bullish sentiment rises past 50% and bearish values dips below 20%, one should increasingly allocate more to one's cash position (i.e. sell and take profits), and vice versa.

So at current sentiment measures (i.e. extremely high bearish, insanely low bullish), the high-risk investor is almost "all-in" in terms of equity exposure, with potential use of margin, while the moderate and low-risk investors are correspondingly less exposed to equities, but relative to their risk categories have heavy equity exposure, and less cash allocation, than at other times.

That's a very good idea Yodean, seems so obvious now you mention it!

The best things in life are free. The most valuable life lessons are obvious but oblivious to the majority because the simplicity of the lessons is what adds to their complexity]. Everyone assumes something valuable has to be earned the hard way when proper observation is probably responsible for 90% of real learning

Agree I actually use this method to a certain degree but Yodean spelt it out, credit where credits due, nice to recognise people's contributions after disagreeing on other topics!

[jlhooter]

I don't know how it is for others who buy your guidance, but for me, it has been a huge learning curve. I have read and re-read your articles on your website. I have read and re-read the Market Updates. I look up the definitions of the words associated with this subject, and print the pages and take notes. I have filled up an entire binder, and am just starting a second one. I also know it is impossible to know exact timing for the ups and downs of the markets. Anyone who does stock market trading has to see it for what it is, a challenge and a risk, with rewards and stresses. Game On!!!

We will publish a lot of new information on this topic. The first one will be published next week and investors like you, centeron, etc can chime in and tell us what needs to be added, clarified or removed.

A sample of the first strategy is posted below

A straightforward strategy but almost nobody follows it because it is so simple and we mentioned it in the past. And one point we would mention it a lot more often but it fell on deaf ears. If this strategy is put to use it makes investing a lot simpler and the learning curve is quite gentle. However, it requires extreme discipline and patience. The best way to test this strategy is to have two accounts. If you don't have a separate account, it will be tough to learn anything.

1) Buy when the markets let out a large dose of steam and the bullish sentiment has fallen into the 15 to 20% ranges or bearish readings are north of 51. You will have plenty of time to come up with a list of good stocks that you want to get into. For the past several years the markets have been providing at least one good opportunity per year, sometimes more.

2) if you are conservative, close all your positions once you are showing gains of 30% or more. Now let's say you think the markets are going to go higher and you don't want to give up all those potential gains. Then you can take some of your money and purchase calls. However, you have to implement this formula (no deviations allowed) For every 100 shares you owned purchase one call only. If you own 150, okay you can round it off to two calls. If you had 120, round it off to one call. Your upside is unlimited and your downside is limited.

3) As soon as bullish readings trade past 50, close all long positions and move into cash or treasuries.

4) if you are not conservative and don't mind taking some risks. Use the following strategy. As soon as the major indices are trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts, close 50% of your longs. Now start selling covered calls on the rest of your positions. When bullish readings trade above 50 twice in a row, then close all your long positions.


It takes very little effort to put 1 to 3 into practice, the rate of success is very high, and stress is kept low but as stated you need extreme levels of patience and discipline.

Sol, taking available sentiment data from your last newsletter and adding the probable 13% for Apr 16 comment in another post, I graphed the data and compared it against your comments above.

Use the following based on your risk level.

Top graph: Bull data
- Gray: set to >50 as a general sell signal
- Orange: set to <20 (you said <= 15 to 20) as a general buy signal
- Blue: Bull data + 10-moving average

Middle graph: Bear data
- Orange: set to >50 as a general buy signal
- Blue: Bear data + 10-moving average

Bottom Graph:
- If = 0, then no general signal to buy
- If = 1, then general buy signal (either Bull-Buy signal triggered OR Bear-Buy signal triggered)
- If = 2, then general strong buy signal (Bull-Buy and Bear-Buy signals hit the same time)
--- I don't have Bear data for Apr 16, but if it was a trigger, then this would be the first 2 on the graph. It is presently a 1 and is preliminary data

[SOL]

@jlhooter excellent work, it gives a nice visual of how extreme the current bullish reading is. The latest bearish reading is 50.

I need to find out how to create a post that does not allow anyone to post a response other than the moderator. I know it's simple, but it slipped my mind. What I am thinking is to create a thread where we focus on unusual patterns. I will ask our guys to upgrade you to a moderator so that when that thread is created you will have the ability to post these charts. You work very fast and very efficiently so let's do some small projects together maybe it will help significantly boost your pattern spotting and TA skills. So far you seem to grasp, even without being any input the points that I am trying to bring across

[jlhooter]

Sol I am in for the ride.
Punch my ticket and let's break some stuff.

Seriously thanks for allowing me to learn this way. One important lesson about data analysis I have learned is you can make it look anyway you want so we have to be careful not to mislead.

[SOL]

Sol I am in for the ride.
Punch my ticket and let's break some stuff.

Seriously thanks for allowing me to learn this way. One important lesson about data analysis I have learned is you can make it look anyway you want so we have to be careful not to mislead.

That's what curve fitting is all about and many top companies and statisticians use that to create a false narrative. The idea should be to let the data do the talking. Don't create a picture but see what is really there, that takes skill because most individuals are trained to see things that are not there