The Fed

[PuppBaby]

I have a concern, lately the market has been taking a drastic hit for lots of reasons but the one I'm concerned with is the Fed. Isn't the thought process always don't fight the Fed, so if they're raising rates and going against the market isnt it a bad time to get in? Why are we still bullish on the market? Won't the Fed end up manufacturing a market collapse without the so called euphoric top we're expecting?

[chippermon]

My thoughts are the Fed is not in control. It is controlled. The powers that control it need more time and more fodder for the big steal. They need the masses to buy in fully. That means record or near record high bullish sentiment. Rates, relatively speaking, are not really much higher. Still sub 1%. If they move now to body slam this market there will be too many able to profit from their actions. We can't have that!!! There's only so much room at the top.

They are masterful at what they do. This volatility is incredible.

[Triplethought]

I have a concern, lately the market has been taking a drastic hit for lots of reasons but the one I'm concerned with is the Fed. Isn't the thought process always don't fight the Fed, so if they're raising rates and going against the market isnt it a bad time to get in? Why are we still bullish on the market? Won't the Fed end up manufacturing a market collapse without the so called euphoric top we're expecting?

I think it's a good question. I'm not exactly bullish either but did 1 buy today. By SOL taking our normal buys from 1/3 of a lot to 1/4 of a lot he is essentially pulling his horns in, becoming more conservative, and deploying less cash so putting less at risk. The impact *should* be to have a greater % of your portfolio out of the market. But that isn't true if you simply deploy the available funds to more MU plays. The Fed is boiling the frog by turning the temperature up a little at a time. Hopefully the recession they create will be mild and short lived. But any given random global event may serve as a catalyst for a major downturn and I'd like to have exited positions before then.

Several people here have stated that the Fed will be forced to reverse course. Maybe so but not before that they seem hell bent on creating a mild recession. Especially now that the definition of a recession is no longer 2 quarters of GDP decline (don't even get me started on the "new" definition).

Today's stock downturn is about Covid in China and supply chains. Tomorrow it might be the jobs report. I'm not sure when SOL will have us "mosey for the exits" but to me it seems we will have to realize some strategic losses to get out of some of the plays.

I don't think anyone could be blamed for moseying for the doors a bit early. Or at least try to increase the % of your portfolio held in cash this year. The danger is you could miss some upside associated with all this volatility in 2022.

[Yodean]

Indeed, the Fed is, as an entity, a terrific example of a Dark WISC (Wolf In Sheep's Clothing). The mainstream financial pundits think the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place, that J.P. is an idiot, etc.

Nope ... the Fed is fully in control. In control in the sense that everything is happening as planned by the TSM (The Shadow Masters).

The Fed is not trying to engineer a "soft landing," etc. It certainly does not have your best interests in mind.

This high growth tech bloodbath has been planned. We're likely bottoming this week, maybe even today.

Close enough, for me.

My tech SMOABS (StepMama Of All Buy Signal) was triggered today. Almost at max. margin limit - still have enough for the rest of the week, if the Slaughter continues. Final round of bullets, last keg of dry powder.

HWG (here we go), DOD (Do Or Die).

Skynet making higher lows, SNOW showing relative strength. TTG (Time To Go), GTG (Good To Go).

[Budge]

Indeed, the Fed is, as an entity, a terrific example of a Dark WISC (Wolf In Sheep's Clothing). The mainstream financial pundits think the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place, etc., that J.P. is an idiot, etc.

Nope ... the Fed is fully in control. In control in the sense that everything is happening as planned by the TSMs (The Shadow Masters).

The Fed is not trying to engineer a "soft landing," etc. It certainly does not have your best interests in mind.

This high growth tech bloodbath has been planned. We're likely bottoming this week, maybe even today.

Close enough, for me.

My tech SMOABS (Stepmother Of All Buy Signal) was triggered today. Almost at max. margin limit - still have enough for the rest of the week, if the Slaughter continues. Final round of bullets, last keg of dry powder.

HWG (here we go), DOD (Do Or Die).

Skynet making higher lows, SNOW showing relative strength. TTG (Time To Go), GTG (Good To Go).

What gives me nightmares? Maybe the thought of having to compose a 50,000 word novel never using the letter "e" like E.W.Wright's 1939 "Gadsby" or one day trying to read one of your really long posts composed of just....acronyms. AGHHH!

[Yodean]

one day trying to read one of your really long posts composed of just....acronyms. AGHHH!

lol, rofl, lmao, lolol

[PuppBaby]

Thanks for your input fellas, I do agree with last MU that we need to hit a next level euphoria b4 the slaughter commences so I remain bullish currently 60% in. Crazy though and as much as I hate to say it, I feel like I identify more as sheep baah and Sol is like my guard dog. Can I evolve up to the next level of thinking, will I evolve? I'd like to think we're all capable, but I doubt that's the case sadly. Can't stop trying though.

[harryg]

Today's stock downturn is about Covid in China and supply chains. Tomorrow it might be the jobs report.

This could well be true, but there is always a 'reason', or to be more precise, one can always find a reason.

In my experience, it doesn't really help. I appreciate that seems counterintuitive, since it's a fundamental human desire to answer the question 'Why'. Anyone who has had exposure to children will tell you that*.

To take a recent example, a headline read, after a market down day : "Investors skittish about Fed tightening".

Then, a couple of days later, after a rally day: "Investors set aside Fed worries".

All this is frankly so much nonsense. Even if true, does it help?

I find that information falls into 3 main categories (aarrgh, I'm beginning to categorise everyone and everything like AcronymNinja).

1) Plain wrong, misleading or invented - well over 95%
2) Interesting, but not useful - 5%
3) Interesting AND useful - oops, no % left, let's say not much

I'll let others decide where my posts lie, but 2) would be a safe bet!

Regarding the current market situation, my take is that it's a buying opportunity. We had quite a few fills yesterday. I don't feel inclined to go mad at these levels - I reserve that for the biggest and most obvious occasions.

Some things are dropping a lot, others not so much.

The Nasdaq is down about 5% in 6m, about 15% this year. So far, it's not as dramatic as all that.

There appears to be a lot of uncertainty about, and that is rarely (if ever?) the case before a big drop.




*I feel that this sentence could have been worded in a better way.

[Yodean]

Crazy though and as much as I hate to say it, I feel like I identify more as sheep baah and Sol is like my guard dog. Can I evolve up to the next level of thinking, will I evolve? I'd like to think we're all capable, but I doubt that's the case sadly. Can't stop trying though.

This mindset will lead naturally to True And Deep Evolution (TADE), imho.

Indeed, it is quite likely that the PuppBaby will become the PuppWolf, in record time.

In my personal Kali Yuga Metaverse (KYM), the true Sheep are the ones who don't realize they are Sheep - ergo, by definition you are definitely not Sheep, at least not in my KYM.

Perhaps akin to the saying about how the best slave is the one who thinks she is free.

Once you start seeing how you have been programmed in certain (all) aspects of your thinking and behavior, the spot on which you are now standing is the beginning of the Path Of Freedom (POF).

In any case, there are still plenty of rich, happy, and extremely healthy and powerful Sheep, so while you are undergoing superfast TADE on your unique POF, you might as well become one of those.

At the end of the day, one woman's Sheep is another transgender's Wolf.

[outof thebox]

I have a concern, lately the market has been taking a drastic hit for lots of reasons but the one I'm concerned with is the Fed. Isn't the thought process always don't fight the Fed, so if they're raising rates and going against the market isnt it a bad time to get in? Why are we still bullish on the market? Won't the Fed end up manufacturing a market collapse without the so called euphoric top we're expecting?

I think it's a good question. I'm not exactly bullish either but did 1 buy today. By SOL taking our normal buys from 1/3 of a lot to 1/4 of a lot he is essentially pulling his horns in, becoming more conservative, and deploying less cash so putting less at risk. The impact *should* be to have a greater % of your portfolio out of the market. But that isn't true if you simply deploy the available funds to more MU plays. The Fed is boiling the frog by turning the temperature up a little at a time. Hopefully the recession they create will be mild and short lived. But any given random global event may serve as a catalyst for a major downturn and I'd like to have exited positions before then.

Several people here have stated that the Fed will be forced to reverse course. Maybe so but not before that they seem hell bent on creating a mild recession. Especially now that the definition of a recession is no longer 2 quarters of GDP decline (don't even get me started on the "new" definition).

Today's stock downturn is about Covid in China and supply chains. Tomorrow it might be the jobs report. I'm not sure when SOL will have us "mosey for the exits" but to me it seems we will have to realize some strategic losses to get out of some of the plays.

I don't think anyone could be blamed for moseying for the doors a bit early. Or at least try to increase the % of your portfolio held in cash this year. The danger is you could miss some upside associated with all this volatility in 2022.

SOL and Team don't react to news and or allow Fear to direct their moves. This is all but obvious if you go through all their updates and I have read probably over 100 reports so far.


I found this excerpts from last year to be highly informative and

Drill that phrase into your mind, for this market will experience another panic type even that might be even stronger than the COVID crash. When COVID struck, we stated that there would be no cure, as it would continue to mutate. This has come to pass, and we expect the rate of mutations to increase. However, suddenly the media will stop focusing on the COVID issue and move to the next new potential threat. The idea was, is and will always remain the same (as long as Fiat exists); use every disaster to increase the money supply. Years ago, we stated that as the stock of Fiat rose, the number of disaster type events would increase. However, two developments are critical:


If you cannot view fear as a useless emotion, the only way to deal with it is to prepare for it. Visualize the above scene and determine if allowing your emotions to take over is the best course of action. Then visualize past disasters and determine if your reactions at that time yielded positive results

For now, we are erring on the side of caution only because we feel that there is a decent chance we will be in a position to purchase great companies at much lower prices. To err on the side of caution is not the same as fear or uncertainty. When you have locked in as many winners as we have since the COVID crash, the prudent thing to do is to be wary. Now, if the above scenario does not come into play, we have backup plans. As stated in the last update, we have Plan A, Plan B and Plan C.

Sept 8, 2021

The gauge on the anxiety index has now moved to the panic zone. Regardless of what the experts state, the only option on the table is to embrace sharp pullbacks until the Trend changes. Presently the trend is showing no signs of weakness.

The ideal scenario would be for the Dow to rally to the 34,800 to 35,400 ranges and then experience a sharp short plunge to the 33,600 to 33,900 ranges. If these levels hold, it should be in a position to mount a strong reversal taking out the 35,400 ranges in record time and positioning itself for a test of the 37K ranges (plus or minus 600 points). The second scenario is that it continues to trend higher from current levels. This will lead to an even more pronounced correction next year.

While we have outlined potential scenarios, Tactical Investors should direct most of their attention to one factor. The trend is positive, so whatever strategy the fear mongers, experts, jackasses, etc.,try to use to con the masses, ignore them and focus on the trend.

September 23, 2021

The first was pretty much on the mark, the Dow pulled back and then rallied well past 35K. It went past 36.2K. Now it has dropped below 33,6 which would is to be expected as the Ukraine war is an outside factor. But I have seen very few publications that provide so much info in terms of directions and expectations.

[Eric]

I find that information falls into 3 main categories (aarrgh, I'm beginning to categorise everyone and everything like AcronymNinja).

1) Plain wrong, misleading or invented - well over 95%
2) Interesting, but not useful - 5%
3) Interesting AND useful - oops, no % left, let's say not much

AcronymNinja
I like your categories of information. I might have to borrow that if I can remember it.

[SOL]

Today's stock downturn is about Covid in China and supply chains. Tomorrow it might be the jobs report.

This could well be true, but there is always a 'reason', or to be more precise, one can always find a reason.

In my experience, it doesn't really help. I appreciate that seems counterintuitive, since it's a fundamental human desire to answer the question 'Why'. Anyone who has had exposure to children will tell you that*.

To take a recent example, a headline read, after a market down day : "Investors skittish about Fed tightening".

Then, a couple of days later, after a rally day: "Investors set aside Fed worries".

All this is frankly so much nonsense. Even if true, does it help?

I find that information falls into 3 main categories (aarrgh, I'm beginning to categorise everyone and everything like AcronymNinja).

1) Plain wrong, misleading or invented - well over 95%
2) Interesting, but not useful - 5%
3) Interesting AND useful - oops, no % left, let's say not much

I'll let others decide where my posts lie, but 2) would be a safe bet!

Regarding the current market situation, my take is that it's a buying opportunity. We had quite a few fills yesterday. I don't feel inclined to go mad at these levels - I reserve that for the biggest and most obvious occasions.

Some things are dropping a lot, others not so much.

The Nasdaq is down about 5% in 6m, about 15% this year. So far, it's not as dramatic as all that.

There appears to be a lot of uncertainty about, and that is rarely (if ever?) the case before a big drop.




*I feel that this sentence could have been worded in a better way.

Harry I think you could replace Dave Allen, you would be a combo of Victor Borsch and Dave Allen. You might have wasted a few decades doing the wrong thing, You seem to have a knack of saying the right thing at the right time or wrong time but the effect is priceless and that's what counts the most

[harryg]

I find that information falls into 3 main categories (aarrgh, I'm beginning to categorise everyone and everything like AcronymNinja).

1) Plain wrong, misleading or invented - well over 95%
2) Interesting, but not useful - 5%
3) Interesting AND useful - oops, no % left, let's say not much

AcronymNinja
I like your categories of information. I might have to borrow that if I can remember it.

Run with it!

You could have fun when someone tells you something by saying - mmm, that's definitely a 1, thanks.

They'll probably take is as a compliment

Harry I think you could replace Dave Allen, you would be a combo of Victor Borsch and Dave Allen. You might have wasted a few decades doing the wrong thing, You seem to have a knack of saying the right thing at the right time or wrong time but the effect is priceless and that's what counts the most

I don't know if that is a compliment or not ? !

I try to make a couple of serious points and the bloke in charge tells me I've wasted my life.

Oh well.

[SOL]

I find that information falls into 3 main categories (aarrgh, I'm beginning to categorise everyone and everything like AcronymNinja).

1) Plain wrong, misleading or invented - well over 95%
2) Interesting, but not useful - 5%
3) Interesting AND useful - oops, no % left, let's say not much

AcronymNinja
I like your categories of information. I might have to borrow that if I can remember it.

Run with it!

You could have fun when someone tells you something by saying - mmm, that's definitely a 1, thanks.

They'll probably take is as a compliment

Harry I think you could replace Dave Allen, you would be a combo of Victor Borsch and Dave Allen. You might have wasted a few decades doing the wrong thing, You seem to have a knack of saying the right thing at the right time or wrong time but the effect is priceless and that's what counts the most

I don't know if that is a compliment or not ? !

I try to make a couple of serious points and the bloke in charge tells me I've wasted my life.

Oh well.

Hahaha. No insult it was a compliment, not many people would have a chance of pulling something like this off. Wasted would be too strong a word, more like sidetracked but still being able to achieve would you wanted to. Maybe akin to going to place A instead of Place C, due to misreading the sign but still completing the machine successfully

On a different note, I don't think anyone could tell you, you wasted your life as you probably blow them away with a skit that puts them in place while forcing them to lau gh

[Yodean]

AcronymNinja

Indeed, I prefer Laughing AcroNynja (LAN). The first part is critical, and definitive.