Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

[Budge]

In times of trouble, people are seduced by the siren song of extreme solutions.

The 2X4 never fails to deliver a massive whack right smack on the forehead to those foolhardy to believe that extremism will lead to anything but a negative outcome in the opposite direction. If you look at it all parties have non-critical thinkers (AKA morons) at the helm so you are just swapping one kind of problem for possibly something worse

But it never stops the morons because..well, they're morons.

[Yodean]

Something to keep an eye on is the French presidential election on April 10th and 24th, which may not turn out to be a walk in the park for Macron.

But that remains to be seen, as she's served as a form of controlled opposition on these topics for years.

Interestingly, that mid-April timeframe will most likely be an extremely volatile time in the markets - my current projections are that if the equity markets are to make a higher low, that would be the most probable time period.

The concept of controlled opposition is extremely important, and it is seen everywhere. To me, all politicians, once they reach a certain level of power and influence, are manifestations of controlled opposition, whether they themselves are aware of this fact or not.

Those who manage to buck this trend either never make it to a significant level of political dominance, or they are shot.

The only good POTUS is a dead one (e.g. JFK), as far as I am concerned. Long live Brandon.

[stefk]

Marine Lepen, far right !!!!! LOL LOL LOL
Eric Zemmour, far far extreme right !!!!!! LOL LOL LOL

[SOL]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQA ... yofChicago

[MarkD]

A good read that summarizes similar thoughts to TI regarding the new world order and bifurcation of East vs West.

https://michael-hudson.com/2022/04/the- ... -the-euro/

"The dollar vis-à-vis Global South currencies

The full-blown version is the New Cold War turning into the opening salvo of World War III triggered by the “Ukraine War”, that’s likely to last at least a decade, perhaps two, as the U.S. extends the fight between neoliberalism and socialism to encompass a worldwide conflict. Apart from the U.S. economic conquest of Europe, its strategists are seeking to lock in African, South American and Asian countries along similar lines to what has been planned for Europe.

The sharp rise in energy and food prices will hit food-deficit and oil-deficit economies hard – at the same time that their foreign dollar-denominated debts to bondholders and banks are falling due and the dollar’s exchange rate is rising against their own currency. Many African and Latin American countries – especially North Africa – face a choice between going hungry, cutting back their gasoline and electricity use, or borrowing the dollars to cover their dependency on U.S.-shaped trade.

There has been talk of IMF issues of new SDRs to finance the rising trade and payments deficits. But such credit always comes with strings attached. The IMF has its own policy of sanctioning countries that do not obey U.S. policy. The first U.S. demand will be that these countries boycott Russia, China and their emerging trade and currency self-help alliance. “Why should we give you SDRs or extend new dollar loans to you, if you are simply going to spend these in Russia, China and other countries that we have declared to be enemies,” the U.S. officials will ask.

At least, this is the plan. I would not be surprised to see some African country become the “next Ukraine,” with U.S. proxy troops (there are still plenty of Wahabi advocates and mercenaries) fighting against the armies and populations of countries seeking to feed themselves with grain from Russian farms, and power their economies with oil or gas from Russian wells – not to speak of participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative that was, after all, the trigger to America’s launching of its new war for global neoliberal hegemony.

The world economy is being enflamed, and the United States has prepared for a military response and weaponization of its own oil and agricultural export trade, arms trade and demands for countries to choose which side of the New Iron Curtain they wish to join.

But what is in this for Europe? Greek labor unions already are demonstrating against the sanctions being imposed. And in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has just won an election on what is basically an anti-EU and anti-U.S. worldview, starting with paying for Russian gas in roubles. How many other countries will break ranks – and how long will it take?

What is in this for the Global South countries being squeezed – not merely as “collateral damage” to the deep shortages and soaring prices for energy and food, but as the very objective of U.S. strategy as it inaugurates the great splitting of the world economy in two? India has already told U.S. diplomats that its economy is naturally connected with those of Russia and China.

From the U.S. vantage point, all that needs to be answered is, “What’s in it for the local politicians and client oligarchies that we reward for delivering their countries?”

That is what makes the looming World War III a veritable war of economic systems. What side will countries choose: their own economic interest and social cohesion, or the U.S. diplomacy put in the hands of their political leaders? When combined with U.S. meddling along the lines of the $5 billion that Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland bragged of having invested in Ukraine’s neo-Nazi parties eight years ago to initiate the fighting erupting in today’s war, there is a lot to consider.

In the face of all this political meddling and media propaganda, how long will it take the rest of the world to realize that there’s a global war on as it expands into World War III? The real problem is that by the time it understands what is going on, the global fracture will already have enabled Russia, China and Eurasia to create a real non-neoliberal New World Order that does not need NATO countries, having lost trust and hope for mutual economic gains. The military battlefield will be littered with economic corpses.

[outof thebox]

Sit back and watch Europe commit suicide

The stunning spectacle of the European Union (EU) committing slow motion hara-kiri is something for the ages. Like a cheap Kurosawa remake, the movie is actually about the US-detonated demolition of the EU, complete with the rerouting of some key Russian commodities exports to the US at the expense of Europeans.

It helps to have a 5th columnist actress strategically placed – in this case astonishingly incompetent European Commission head Ursula von der Lugen – with her vociferous announcement of a crushing new sanctions package: Russian ships banned from EU ports; road transportation companies from Russia and Belarus prohibited from entering the EU; no more coal imports (over 4.4 billion euros a year).

In practice, that translates into Washington shaking down its wealthiest western clients/puppets. Russia, of course, is too powerful to directly challenge militarily, and the US badly needs some of its key exports, especially minerals. So, the Americans will instead nudge the EU into imposing ever-increasing sanctions that will willfully collapse their national economies, while allowing the US to scoop everything up.

Cue to the coming catastrophic economic consequences felt by Europeans in their daily life (but not by the wealthiest five percent): inflation devouring salaries and savings; next winter energy bills packing a mean punch; products disappearing from supermarkets; holiday bookings almost frozen. France’s Le Petit Roi Emmanuel Macron – perhaps facing a nasty electoral surprise – has even announced: “food stamps like in WWII are possible.”

We have Germany facing the returning ghost of Weimar hyperinflation. BlackRock President Rob Kapito said, in Texas,“for the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want.” African farmers are unable to afford fertilizer at all this year, reducing agricultural production by an amount capable of feeding 100 million people.

Zoltan Poszar, former NY Fed and US Treasury guru, current Credit Suisse grand vizir, has been on a streak, stressing how commodity reserves – and, here, Russia is unrivaled – will be an essential feature of what he calls Bretton Woods III (although, what’s being designed by Russia, China, Iran and the Eurasia Economic Union is a post-Bretton Woods).

Poszar remarks that wars, historically, are won by those who have more food and energy supplies, in the past to power horses and soldiers; today to feed soldiers and fuel tanks and fighter jets. China, incidentally, has amassed large stocks of virtually everything.

Poszar notes how our current Bretton Woods II system has a deflationary impulse (globalization, open trade, just-in-time supply chains) while Bretton Woods 3 will provide an inflationary impulse (de-globalization, autarky, hoarding of raw materials) of supply chains and extra military spending to be able to protect what will remain of seaborne trade.

The implications are of course overwhelming. What’s implicit, ominously, is that this state of affairs may even lead to WWIII.

Rublegas or American LNG?

The Russian roundtable Valdai Club has conducted an essential expert discussion on what we at The Cradle have defined as Rublegas – the real geoeconomic game-changer at the heart of the post-petrodollar era. Alexander Losev, a member of the Russian Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, offered the contours of the Big Picture. But it was up to Alexey Gromov, Chief Energy Director of the Institute of Energy and Finance, to come up with crucial nitty-gritty.

Russia, so far, was selling 155 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe each year. The EU rhetorically promises to get rid of it by 2027, and reduce supply by the end of 2022 by 100 billion cubic meters. Gromov asked “how,” and remarked, “any expert has no answer. Most of Russia’s natural gas is shipped over pipelines. This cannot simply be replaced by Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).”

https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/8853


Another good read

[Yodean]

Poszar remarks that wars, historically, are won by those who have more food and energy supplies, in the past to power horses and soldiers; today to feed soldiers and fuel tanks and fighter jets. China, incidentally, has amassed large stocks of virtually everything.

Poszar notes how our current Bretton Woods II system has a deflationary impulse (globalization, open trade, just-in-time supply chains) while Bretton Woods 3 will provide an inflationary impulse (de-globalization, autarky, hoarding of raw materials) of supply chains and extra military spending to be able to protect what will remain of seaborne trade.

It's a nuanced topic, but there are a lot of points that Zoltan Poszar made recently that don't quite stand up to scrutiny.

Too many to list atm for me, but the key one where I think he is quite wrong is the Bretton Woods 3 stuff.

It ain't gonna happen for quite a few years, maybe up to ten or more - the USD will remain King, and all will still bend the knee. An old King, perhaps, but a King nonetheless.

Global reserve currencies don't die a quick death, generally speaking.

The Euro is dying, but this will just make the USD stronger (flight-to-safety, etc.). There's a lot of chatter about the yuan, but last time I checked - and I could be wrong about this - it still constitutes only about 2% or less of total global trade.

Plus, private wealth holds about 60% or more in USD or USD-denominated assets -this includes TSM Families (The Shadow Master Families).

[SOL]

Poszar remarks that wars, historically, are won by those who have more food and energy supplies, in the past to power horses and soldiers; today to feed soldiers and fuel tanks and fighter jets. China, incidentally, has amassed large stocks of virtually everything.

Poszar notes how our current Bretton Woods II system has a deflationary impulse (globalization, open trade, just-in-time supply chains) while Bretton Woods 3 will provide an inflationary impulse (de-globalization, autarky, hoarding of raw materials) of supply chains and extra military spending to be able to protect what will remain of seaborne trade.

It's a nuanced topic, but there are a lot of points that Zoltan Poszar made recently that don't quite stand up to scrutiny.


Too many to list atm for me, but the key one where I think he is quite wrong is the Bretton Woods 3 stuff.

It ain't gonna happen for quite a few years, maybe up to ten or more - the USD will remain King, and all will still bend the knee. An old King, perhaps, but a King nonetheless.

Global reserve currencies don't die a quick death, generally speaking.

The Euro is dying, but this will just make the USD stronger (flight-to-safety, etc.). There's a lot of chatter about the yuan, but last time I checked - and I could be wrong about this - it still constitutes only about 2% or less of total global trade.

Plus, private wealth holds about 60% or more in USD or USD-denominated assets -this includes TSM Families (The Shadow Master Families).

Let's see what happens in 2023, if the USD crack, then while it will remain relevant it could end up putting in a multi-decade top, which means the poor will lose, the rich will rock as in lock-in big gains. Right now, the ratio is that 90percent of individuals lose while 10 win. At the last stage of this battle, the US top players will sacrifice another 9, so it will end with 99% losing while 1% wins. What this means is that dollars' purchasing power will drop so much that all the rich SOBS at the top that increased their stock from 100K to 1 billion (this is for illustration purposes) will walk away unscathed. The other part of the story is that high growth areas will accelerate to the point that Americans looking to emigrate who that waited too long will feel poor compared to the middle-class natives of the nations they seek to move to unless they are looking to move to Zimbabwe.

The top areas to invest in now are South East Asia and some parts of Eastern Europe (for now, Poland, Romania, and the baltic states are all out of the question). Albania might be something to look at, though you should move slowly or have a local contact. However, the big wild play is Russia and the LPR and DPR; there are going to be some massive wins. In the LPR and DPR, some property prices could appreciate 500% once they become a new country or if they assimilated into Russia.

Now, look how smart our President acts. You need to watch until the end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j58Bx0E ... el=FoxNews

[George1010]

Ah, lovely. Some messages finally begin to trickle down and make Purple, using the example of the founder of the World Economic Forum held in Davos, question competence of Western elites. Purple delves into Klaus Schwab's background and ideas, such as proverbial 'Reset':

Some explanation is in order. Back in 2014, an economist named Klaus Schwab emerged out of the hive of sentient buzzwords that is Davos to declare that it was time for an elite-engineered “Great Reset” of capitalism. There was just one problem: the little people who inhabit economies had been through quite enough disruption of late and weren’t especially keen on more. Schwab’s idea found little purchase outside of the global Gulfstream gentry. ...Just who is this Schwab? You will be relieved to learn that he’s a lifelong academic and founder of the World Economic Forum. And yet, you wonder, does he have any honorary doctorates? He does, in fact, no fewer than 17 of them. Yet it’s here that we damn him with robust praise. Back in parts of the world where bacon-wrapped scallops are not instantly available upon request, policy doesn’t trickle down from globe-girdling theorists; it comes from elected leaders and national civil servants. (What’s the one thing that might make Angela Merkel belly-laugh? Try telling her Jean-Claude Juncker used to run Europe.) And while politicians are occasionally tempted towards radical change, they’re also accountable to voters, whose lives they can’t afford to blow up by, say, holding down the economy’s power button for 10 seconds. Progress has to be more gradual and piecemeal than that. Disruption even amid a pandemic can garner serious pushback.

That explains it a bit why this "scholar", pardon my insult to real scholarship, makes mutually exclusive suggestions in his grand idea of 'Reset'. This IS expected from Western "elites" and Purple's references to Merkel or manifest alcoholic Jean-Claude Junker hardly makes his case against contemporary Western elites stronger. I am not sure what is the reason behind Junker being drunk whenever dealing with the so called "global" and European economy--maybe the recognition of a deep shit this economy is in--but Merkel, far from laughing belly-laughing herself is a laughing stock of a stateswoman who must serve as an Exhibit A in any future school of government of how not to run the country.

But I generally agree with Purple, Western "elites", including most of Washington D.C. do not know shit from shinola, which is not that surprising when overwhelming majority of them are the products of humanities programs, which, basically, teach nothing about modern world other than moribund cliches about travails of electoral politics and simulacra of governing. And here is the point--the only skills Western elites have are those of how to run perpetual election campaigns to retain their place at the trough of government spending. Moreover, the United States is not-governable in principle, because it is nothing more than a geographic playground for a political power clans who see themselves only within the framework of monetarist policies and Wall Street's, and military-industrial complex' fat tit of contributions. What governing? What steering the ship of state in the right direction? You are talking about a bunch of white-board "academics" most of whose life experience was confined to comfortable offices of banks and law firms, with some breaks for lunch or dinners in upscale restaurants, and whose grasp of the geopolitical, economic, military and other relevant realities, or lack thereof, is conditioned by a bunch of "theories" which are nothing more than an excuse for the entrance into the clubs of Western "intellectuals", who, as Purple correctly wonders about Schwab:

I’m starting to wonder whether he could successfully back a car out of a garage.
He can't, neither can modern Western "elites" run anything complex in reality. What the fuck do you expect from some financier or "analyst" who saw CNC machining center on TV and thinks that war is just the matter of sitting at the monitor with joystick. Want to see a parade of morons--look no further than TV and main-stream media. One cretin after another selling you unreality and opinions on matters they cannot possibly have any opinions about. I write about stupidity of West's "elites" for years, decades really. It would have been comical if it wouldn't have been so dangerous because these people, as the irrefutable empirical evidence suggests, will continue to pretend, or believe sincerely, that they have what it takes to save what they themselves helped to run into the ground by their doctrine-mongering. Financial capitalism is not viable, as is not the whole concept of post-modernism and its ugly ejaculate of the white-board "academics"--post-industrialism.

One cannot go against fundamental laws of physics and its underlying truism that development which matters for humanity IS energy. More energy--more real development, emphasis on real. Energy, all sorts of it, is material and it proved already that making money is not a substitute for a real technological development and new social reality which cannot be stopped, even by the invention of ANTIFA and BLM, and acts of political pedophilia Greta Thunberg embodies. Those are all acts of desperation by modern Western "elites", who are not ready to face history doing what she always does--continuing its unrelenting step. These "elites" have only two options--either get out of the way or be smashed by whatever method this history will chose, even after we were told that this history has ended.

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/1 ... thing.html

[jlhooter]

Now, look how smart our President acts. You need to watch until the end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j58Bx0E ... el=FoxNews

Love this guy but I can't bring myself to watch this any longer. If I contine to watch our moron president I will lose it so I shut it off. At this point ignorance is bliss and I would rather watch an episode of Golden Girls than watch Brandon one more time.

[SOL]

https://youtu.be/r4zReg7Bhu8

[SOL]

This video is interesting but focus on Alexander he is quite a smart guy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Pulorg ... l=TheDuran

And the Rouble is now trading at a higher level than it was after sanctions. It has hit those targets faster than projected. Things are moving very fast, So man-made inflation could be dangerously high in Europe if no deal is made with Russia.

[Yodean]

This video is interesting but focus on Alexander he is quite a smart guy
https://www.youtube.co

Glad to see that Gonzalo is still alive (for now).

Liked his passing mention of Assange - to me, the Assange story pretty much encapsulates the story of the West's current and continuing precipitous decline.

Both what is being done to Julian, and the near-complete apathy of the Western Sheeple to his predicament. At a certain point - we're probably there now - ignorance, passivity, stupidity, and cowardice deserve a certain degree of cosmic slaughter, I would speculate.

So what is happening to the West as a whole could potentially be viewed as Divine Justice at play, a Divine Pendulum crashing down upon the Western Sheeple.

The clip also had some interesting bits on how the Scandinavian region relates to the current Russian crisis.

[SOL]

Though I know Russian and Ukrainian Mentality quite well, I still can't get over how resilient they are, primarily the kids. Watch this video, these kids are the true heroes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnBlk8Z ... kLancaster

as a result of these kids (not this video), I saw many brave kids and women in Ukraine, and we managed to help a few of them before things got worse. There is a 90% probability that we will allocate a significant sum of funds to help many kids once the situation cools down.

[SOL]

Btw Listen to some of the things that Scott Ritter talks about, for these are things we mentioned before. Note that this war in Ukraine is a massive issue and will start to have a massive impact on the markets; in fact, it is already doing so, as this correction has lasted longer in time and scope because of these events. On the same token, the ensuing rally will last longer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQSTHvD2z1c