TIT Debriefing requested by subs

[Yodean]

@the TIT, @BossJedi (BJ):

Over the past little bit, I've received a few private emails from TIT subs who wished to remain anonymous but had some questions which they did not feel completely comfortable posting publicly. I've tried to compile their questions somewhat, below, into just a couple, but in the interests of maintaining their requested anonymity, will also adapt the wording that was sent me.

I will also supply my own perspectives, to act as a bit of a baseline sounding board for discussion, a potential starting point of sorts, and perhaps encourage other, shier TIT subs to voice their questions and concerns as part of the discussion of the topics below.

What these TIT subs would like is not necessarily my opinion, but those of the TIT and BJ, regarding the following:

A Few Questions for Debriefing by the TIT & BJ:

1) In several of the MU and AITT updates last November and early December, somewhat mixed and changing messages were given about the potential for a mild market correction in Q1, which eventually materialized in early '22 in a manner and to an extent not predicted or discussed adequately by the TIT, subsequently. Please discuss, explain, if possible wrt: is there anything to be learned from this, or did anything go wrong?

2) Going forward, is the TIT system-methodology going to work as it stands, given its perceived failure to call the interim tops and/or bottoms recently?

*****

My 2c:

(1) We're in volatile times, all markets are manipulated to varying degrees. No financial forecast carries 100% certainty - at best, 70% to 80% is all one may hope for, and that's stretching my innate optimism a tad. Putin's move - the extent, at least - into Ukraine may be viewed as a bit of a Black Swan event, and by definition, the specifics of a Black Swan event cannot be predicted with precision in advance of its occurence. The most important lesson, perhaps, is to really understand and examine one's own risk tolerance, and to constantly remind oneself that no financial prediction carries with it 100% accuracy. Invest accordingly, and below one's own perceived risk tolerance.

(2) No guarantees of course, but applying the TIT's potent system of combining Trend Analysis, Herd Psychology, and Technical Analysis into a unique entity has a high probability of being extremely successful in the intermediate to long-term time frames. Still, the individual investor would do best to adapt this System to fit her personal ethos and risk tolerance, and not necessarily use it "as is."

Short-term, most crystal balls are fragile, but long-term, the TIT's is quite good, as it is diamond-laced and shiny.

[Cinnamon]

My two cents

I would not say that Sol and team failed to react. They were warning months in advance of a potential correction. I remember Sol stating in more than one update, that they expected the correction in the 1st quarter to be milder than the second one, not mild but milder in comparison to the stronger one in the 4th quarter.

It would be too much work for Sol to tell each category of investor what to do. For example i consider myself middle level in terms of risk and my risk appetite continues to rise as I get better hang of MP and TA. Based on my risk profile I took some profits as soon as Sol stated that they expected a correction around the first quarter. I think the onus falls onto you to determine what type of trader you are and then act accordingly. I am sure high risk takers like Yodean did not take much of the table. So each individual needs to come up with a strategy and then adjust it as their appetite for risk changes.

Over the long run Sol and Team are almost unbeatable in terms of their record. Nobody can predict the short term direction accurately; it’s the long term that counts the most as we are all investing for the long term right? I don't see their system failing at all at least not yet. I used the pullback to buy shares in companies that I wanted but could not get in because I felt the prices were too high before. As Yodean stated, who could have predicted a black swan event like the Russian Ukraine war.

[AstuteShift]

SOL and his team actually nail a ton of calls

BABA puts, BABA got absolutely decimated

US dollar bull run, another fantastic call

Plus a ton of many others. Personally to become a great trader or investor, you also got to eventually fly like an eagle and make your own trades based on the data SOL and his team provides

I would say, his information and data is invaluable. Compared to wallstreet firms which is beyond crap.

[stefk]

"""Personally to become a great trader or investor, you also got to eventually fly like an eagle and make your own trades based on the data SOL and his team provides"""

Well said Astute

[Yodean]

"""Personally to become a great trader or investor, you also got to eventually fly like an eagle and make your own trades based on the data SOL and his team provides"""

Well said Astute

Indeed, if you want to fly, learn from Eagles, not from Ducks.

Most financial newsletters go "quack quack quack."

But when learning to fly from Eagles, you may fall, and it's a long way down, but this is the price.

If you learn from Ducks, you won't fall and hurt yourself as much, but you may drown slowly ...

[Tobeornot]

"""Personally to become a great trader or investor, you also got to eventually fly like an eagle and make your own trades based on the data SOL and his team provides"""

Well said Astute

Indeed, if you want to fly, learn from Eagles, not from Ducks.

Most financial newsletters go "quack quack quack."

But when learning to fly from Eagles, you may fall, and it's a long way down, but this is the price.

If you learn from Ducks, you won't fall and hurt yourself as much, but you may drown slowly ...

My half a cent is this. SOL and Team provides us with the option of learning how to fish as opposed to being sold worms only. We have the option to use their strategy and find stock we like as well as getting into what they recommend. I have yet to find another service that provides so much information on learning how to trade and openly discusses the main aspects of their trading methodology.

If you want to advance, then you need to get your S**T together or get S**T on, it as simple as that.

[jlhooter]

"""Personally to become a great trader or investor, you also got to eventually fly like an eagle and make your own trades based on the data SOL and his team provides"""

Well said Astute

Indeed, if you want to fly, learn from Eagles, not from Ducks.

Most financial newsletters go "quack quack quack."

But when learning to fly from Eagles, you may fall, and it's a long way down, but this is the price.

If you learn from Ducks, you won't fall and hurt yourself as much, but you may drown slowly ...

My half a cent is this. SOL and Team provides us with the option of learning how to fish as opposed to being sold worms only. We have the option to use their strategy and find stock we like as well as getting into what they recommend. I have yet to find another service that provides so much information on learning how to trade and openly discusses the main aspects of their trading methodology.

If you want to advance, then you need to get your S**T together or get S**T on, it as simple as that.

I like fish!

[bpcw]

A difficult one, hard to be critical of TIT because they have served me so well.

I initially used TIT data to invest in TQQQ, and stocks with the AI service but after nice gains from the covid correction I switched to purchasing more stocks in both MU and AI services. Whilst there were warnings of a first quarter correction I presumed that the stock suggestions would take this into consideration but was a little disappointed that most of the stocks that had already had strong corrections, carried on down with the indexes. I also thought that the updates were suggesting that we probably weren't high enough for the correction to start but it came very early in the first quarter which I wasn't quite expecting.

This is why I made the suggestion regarding raising cash levels which Sol answered in detail which was much appreciated but wasn't quite what I was getting at. It was for me a clearer and secondary way of advising subscribers that we are getting close to a correction and so it would be wise to raise cash levels which for me would have meant selling some positions. Also most of the stock picks I purchased were in the red near the top of the indexes and so I was reluctant to sell.

I realise in hindsight that I purchased too many stocks and should have limited the number, keeping a good proportion in cash, so I think a lot of it was my ignorance and perhaps not fully digesting all the beginners material. It also didn't help that the correction in the Nasdaq and tech stocks was more severe due to the war in Ukraine.

Some of it I think is really understanding the way Sol communicates, and coming up with a better plan which I had done well with TQQQ but not so well with more stock picks. When Sol suggests that an index could get to said price, we cannot take it that this will happen, he is working on probability, we have to position our portfolio according to getting close to tops & bottoms based on sentiment, not exact numbers.

However, saying all this, some of the stocks that have faired badly have already mounted a strong bounce and I'm expecting more to follow as we move further into this year, as Sol has said, some shares that were badly down in previous corrections bounced back strongly and made nice profits.

[Centeron631]

A difficult one, hard to be critical of TIT because they have served me so well.

I initially used TIT data to invest in TQQQ, and stocks with the AI service but after nice gains from the covid correction I switched to purchasing more stocks in both MU and AI services. Whilst there were warnings of a first quarter correction I presumed that the stock suggestions would take this into consideration but was a little disappointed that most of the stocks that had already had strong corrections, carried on down with the indexes. I also thought that the updates were suggesting that we probably weren't high enough for the correction to start but it came very early in the first quarter which I wasn't quite expecting.

This is why I made the suggestion regarding raising cash levels which Sol answered in detail which was much appreciated but wasn't quite what I was getting at. It was for me a clearer and secondary way of advising subscribers that we are getting close to a correction and so it would be wise to raise cash levels which for me would have meant selling some positions. Also most of the stock picks I purchased were in the red near the top of the indexes and so I was reluctant to sell.

I realise in hindsight that I purchased too many stocks and should have limited the number, keeping a good proportion in cash, so I think a lot of it was my ignorance and perhaps not fully digesting all the beginners material. It also didn't help that the correction in the Nasdaq and tech stocks was more severe due to the war in Ukraine.

Some of it I think is really understanding the way Sol communicates, and coming up with a better plan which I had done well with TQQQ but not so well with more stock picks. When Sol suggests that an index could get to said price, we cannot take it that this will happen, he is working on probability, we have to position our portfolio according to getting close to tops & bottoms based on sentiment, not exact numbers.

However, saying all this, some of the stocks that have faired badly have already mounted a strong bounce and I'm expecting more to follow as we move further into this year, as Sol has said, some shares that were badly down in previous corrections bounced back strongly and made nice profits.

Yeah bpcw i had some communication misunderstanding too. Sol did say there would be a correction sometime in first quarter (and i am assuming that the word correction is always being referenced in TI as means downward and that a correction is almost always preceded by a strong run-up and the Santa Clause rally to happen) and actually went on a buying spree in January further fortified by previous words that a top would be happening sometime in the first quarter and these words in Dec 23 update which i took to mean still optomism:
"The MACD’s are now trading in the oversold ranges, and they could soon move to the extremely oversold ranges. The markets don’t have to pull back firmly. Zigzag action would be enough to push the MACD’s into the highly oversold ranges. If the MACD’s move into the highly oversold ranges, the correction will most likely be delayed until February of 2022 or early March of 2022. A weekly close but preferably a monthly close at or above 16,410 should set the wheels in motion for the Nasdaq to surge to new highs"

In retrospect i guess i should have focused on the words correction and skipped over most of the rest (about the oversold and highly oversold and in another update that when the danger came in TI would would have to move from the weekly charts down to the daily charts which did not happen in fact) and headed for the hills instead of buying and done the opposite or at least put the breaks on buying.

However this is one thing i would like to see added to each each and every update right at the end of the advisement material so misinterpretation of communication can be avoided :

a Minimum cash indicator recomendaion for the typical average investor in TI somewhat like this : eg.
mcirtai 13%, trending down or up or sideways as the case may be from previous update

I believe that such an indicator would say volumes and crystal clear about what this typical average investor (somewhat like the Reasonable Man concept in the Law of Torts) should be doing in practical terms.

[SOL]

We will start update the suggesting reading material and going forward we will create an investing strategy that subscribers can modify later on. for example :

1) when the monthly charts are trading in the extremely overbought ranges (which we will determine so no one will have to spend time trying to determine this) a minimum of 4 to 6 lots depending on one's risk threshold, should be kept in cash.

2) In regular times, 2-3 lots of cash should be maintained for those mouth-watering opportunities

3) if both the weekly and monthly charts are trading in the overbought ranges, investors with low-risk thresholds should move 50% into cash.


The above is a rough outline of what we are working on.

We are also working on creating a gauge that will indicate where the markets are trading via monthly timelines. Overbought, extremely overbought or insanely overbought.

We will combine all this and create a suggested plan for individuals that fall in the low to medium risk thresholds. With time the plan can be customized to suit one's needs

[bpcw]

"The MACD’s are now trading in the oversold ranges, and they could soon move to the extremely oversold ranges. The markets don’t have to pull back firmly. Zigzag action would be enough to push the MACD’s into the highly oversold ranges. If the MACD’s move into the highly oversold ranges, the correction will most likely be delayed until February of 2022 or early March of 2022. A weekly close but preferably a monthly close at or above 16,410 should set the wheels in motion for the Nasdaq to surge to new highs"

Yes I took the above statement to indicate we were probably not going to get a correction just yet and it would likely come in February or March.

[bpcw]

We will start update the suggesting reading material and going forward we will create an investing strategy that subscribers can modify later on. for example :

1) when the monthly charts are trading in the extremely overbought ranges (which we will determine so no one will have to spend time trying to determine this) a minimum of 4 to 6 lots depending on one's risk threshold, should be kept in cash.

2) In regular times, 2-3 lots of cash should be maintained for those mouth-watering opportunities

3) if both the weekly and monthly charts are trading in the overbought ranges, investors with low-risk thresholds should move 50% into cash.


The above is a rough outline of what we are working on.

We are also working on creating a gauge that will indicate where the markets are trading via monthly timelines. Overbought, extremely overbought or insanely overbought.

We will combine all this and create a suggested plan for individuals that fall in the low to medium risk thresholds. With time the plan can be customized to suit one's needs

That would be most excellent!

[LoriPrecisely]

I don't know how it is for others who buy your guidance, but for me, it has been a huge learning curve. I have read and re-read your articles on your website. I have read and re-read the Market Updates. I look up the definitions of the words associated with this subject, and print the pages and take notes. I have filled up an entire binder, and am just starting a second one. I also know it is impossible to know exact timing for the ups and downs of the markets. Anyone who does stock market trading has to see it for what it is, a challenge and a risk, with rewards and stresses. Game On!!!

[Yodean]

I don't know how it is for others who buy your guidance, but for me, it has been a huge learning curve. I have read and re-read your articles on your website. I have read and re-read the Market Updates. I look up the definitions of the words associated with this subject, and print the pages and take notes. I have filled up an entire binder, and am just starting a second one. I also know it is impossible to know exact timing for the ups and downs of the markets. Anyone who does stock market trading has to see it for what it is, a challenge and a risk, with rewards and stresses. Game On!!!

My 2c: the TIT services are really for the intermediate-advanced level investor and trader, who is highly motivated to work on her own and learn independently.

It's like mastering a martial art or learning how to play a musical instrument properly ... you may have the best teacher, but you still have to put in the work, and accumulate loads of experience.

There are no guarantees in life, just like there are none in investing.

You won't win on every play, but you WILL most definitely lose money on a certain number of plays. Sometimes a lot of money.

Nothing, no magical "System," will guarantee constant victory.

Learn to lose well, and learn quickly (if there is something to learn - sometimes there isn't any specific thing to learn, just random variance).

Get back up as fast as possible after being knocked down, even if you are seriously injured and only have one good leg upon which to stand. Metaphorically speaking, of course. This is a good mindset for investing.

It's always going to be a fight against the WIM (Woman In the Mirror).

[Centeron631]

Thanks for your comments bpcw

Wondering where is the writing by Sol of today at 11:36 as i have not been able to find same.

My commentary on it just off the Cuff - i do not see the risk management in owning just 10 positions in that if one gets a couple of bummers in 10 where the bottome falls out one gets really behind the 8 ball and i think we experienced that around early Jan give or take and that is a big challenge to overcome especially when the Suits start sniffing around. For me I think i would need about 15 or so positions to feel fairly safe in that regard in the MU. AS to 1) Taking the 100k example and dividing it into 10 positions and then each position into 3 lots each totalling 30 lots he appears to be talking about $16,665 (5lots x $3,3333) on 100k or 16.6% cash. As to 3) @50%then 50K cash (a huge jump)- the big question is how fast to move in the sell to get those levels (and we have seen how fast market conditions can change in January) and if its too risky to wait until the Insane overbought is reached if it even does so before a collapse. Also is 3) more risky or less risky than than the monthly charts alone jumping to the insanely overbought alone without the weekly chart
As to 2) not sure of the definition of "regular times" Nor does it talk about the oversold positions but that may be elementary - as usually a lot easier to Buy generally than sell.......although one can dally too long or move too quickly as well in buying.

I still like my cash indicator as well for the average typical investor as one can see where the leaning is with each and every update with an ecomomy of words and the more experienced traders can make there own adjustments