MOSO and FOSO events

[Triplethought]

Yesterday's market shooting up on news (probably false) that the Ukraine peace talks went well got me thinking about recognizing a "Mother of Selling Opportunities" and "Father of Selling Opportunities". I decided yesterday was a BOSO - "Brother of Selling Opportunities" and I sold a few stocks to take profits but really not much since not a lot hit SOL's exit limits.

We talk a lot here about the MOBO and FOBO events but those don't do us much good if we don't have cash. Makes me wonder how to recognize the MOSO. My guess based on my last 2 years of experience in the market is that if we recognize a MOSO time frame we'll have to sell numerous positions at a loss (which I'm always loathe to do) to get out with best reasonable value.

[harryg]

I agree that you need cash in advance of the buying opportunity, and for most that means selling beforehand.

Significant selling opportunities would coincide with a time when market participants are in a state of euphoria, or at least complacency.

Market keeps going up, everyone is happy, no bad news on the horizon or the bad news is ignored.

That is a time to sell, or at least trim positions. It doesn't feel right, just like it didn't maybe feel right to buy stuff over the last couple of weeks.

As to when that is, I don't know more than anyone else, but it doesn't feel like now.


PS: If anyone would like to join the League Against All These Annoying Acronyms (absolutely not known as LAATAA), just let me know.

[SOL]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shy4WOF ... Tweetytoes

[Yodean]

Yesterday's market shooting up on news (probably false) that the Ukraine peace talks went well got me thinking about recognizing a "Mother of Selling Opportunities" and "Father of Selling Opportunities". I decided yesterday was a BOSO - "Brother of Selling Opportunities" and I sold a few stocks to take profits but really not much since not a lot hit SOL's exit limits.

Use margin when you run low on cash. I've been doing the opposite of you, for the most part, and it's been extremely profitable, thus far. Indeed, you remain one of my favourite contrarian indicators on this board, so you have my thanks, for past realized profits, and more to come, I would think.

Markets climbing a fairly classic, albeit highly volatile, WOW (Wall of Worry). Maybe higher low in mid-April - we'll see.

These ain't yo' grandmama's markets ... OG-noob thinking will get you slaughtered.

[Triplethought]

Yesterday's market shooting up on news (probably false) that the Ukraine peace talks went well got me thinking about recognizing a "Mother of Selling Opportunities" and "Father of Selling Opportunities". I decided yesterday was a BOSO - "Brother of Selling Opportunities" and I sold a few stocks to take profits but really not much since not a lot hit SOL's exit limits.

Use margin when you run low on cash. I've been doing the opposite of you, for the most part, and it's been extremely profitable, thus far. Indeed, you remain one of my favourite contrarian indicators on this board, so you have my thanks, for past realized profits, and more to come, I would think.

Markets climbing a fairly classic, albeit highly volatile, WOW (Wall of Worry). Maybe higher low in mid-April - we'll see.

These ain't yo' grandmama's markets ... OG-noob thinking will get you slaughtered.

I borrowed $1million of government cash that I'm sitting on. So I'll probably use that rather than margin when my balls get big enough

[Yodean]

I borrowed $1million of government cash that I'm sitting on. So I'll probably use that rather than margin when my balls get big enough

That's great, but you still need to be able to pull the trigger.

[SOL]

I borrowed $1million of government cash that I'm sitting on. So I'll probably use that rather than margin when my balls get big enough

That's great, but you still need to be able to pull the trigger.

And be ready to feel like you made the wrong move when you initially do. Everything that looks risky ends up feeling riskier once you take the first step. It's only when you learn to deal with the risk that you understand that the initial feeling of fear or despair is because you are too obsessed with the outcome. Instead of focussing on the forest, you are focussing on the tree and in doing so you forget why you even decided to take the risk in the first place. Experience goes a long way in creating a great investor. Book smarts, TA and even understanding of MP without actual field experience all amount to fancy fluff. Experience trumps almost everything else

[AstuteShift]

No one goes broke taking profits

However, certain data I can’t ignore and will immediately take action such as extreme bullish sentiment with weekly and monthly charts in nosebleeding overbought zone.

That example, I would go heavy on cash and go with bear ETFs and puts. I would buy more puts on the counter rallies until the bearish sentiment is at a extreme high along with a bottom formation forming.

With the extra profits, buy the cheap bargains.

However this is for the MU/AI portfolio and option portfolio which are separate.

I have another portfolio which is 2020 AI birth portfolio, I don’t look at it and keep accumulating until the mega bubble pops

[harryg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shy4WOF ... Tweetytoes

I like the school one!



Old one:


"What do we want?"

"An end to acronyms."

"When do we want it?"


"ASAP!"

[Yodean]

I have another portfolio which is 2020 AI birth portfolio, I don’t look at it and keep accumulating until the mega bubble pops

@yy: what assets do you hold in your AIBP (A.I. Birth Portfolio)?

[jlhooter]

I have another portfolio which is 2020 AI birth portfolio, I don’t look at it and keep accumulating until the mega bubble pops

@yy: what assets do you hold in your AIBP (A.I. Birth Portfolio)?

Yes do tell.

And by the way, LD, using YY may not be appropriate any longer since it looks like his avatar identifies as a very different character. In this day and age you may need to check yourself.

[Triplethought]

I borrowed $1million of government cash that I'm sitting on. So I'll probably use that rather than margin when my balls get big enough

That's great, but you still need to be able to pull the trigger.

And be ready to feel like you made the wrong move when you initially do. Everything that looks risky ends up feeling riskier once you take the first step. It's only when you learn to deal with the risk that you understand that the initial feeling of fear or despair is because you are too obsessed with the outcome. Instead of focussing on the forest, you are focussing on the tree and in doing so you forget why you even decided to take the risk in the first place. Experience goes a long way in creating a great investor. Book smarts, TA and even understanding of MP without actual field experience all amount to fancy fluff. Experience trumps almost everything else

I agree with what you're saying here. I may never put borrowed money on the line in the market - preferring instead to lend it out as "hard money" loans at 9%-12% interest. I lent 1/3 of it at 12% last year and that's paying the interest on the whole amount right now until I figure out how to deploy more of it with relative safety. I think as the FED ratchets up interest rates the banks will pull credit back and the opportunities to loan on real estate where people put 30% down and borrow 70% at 9.5% will become more common. Some of those loans are out there now but relatively few (and they carry high risk such as loaning on undeveloped land for construction)

Experience with money on the line. It is interesting how people can tell you things and you don't absorb the message until your own money is at risk.

Swerving into politics for just a moment this, I think, is the mistake that PhD's often make in adopting liberal politics and policies. They can study business. Learn about economics. Teach others. And yet make the silliest mistakes in pontificating about what would be good for society. Any business owner can listen to them and realize they are blind men feeling the leg of an elephant and telling everyone it is a tree trunk. It is comical to listen to NPR these days. I call it NPPR for National Poor People Radio. A series of learned and intelligent people getting almost everything they say wrong. And emphasizing all the wrong policies. They haven't learned that no Von Neuman architecture can outperform parallel processing if the problem lends itself to parallel (which politics and economics do because millions of people making millions of decisions that benefit themselves works much better than a single central processor- even if that central processor is genius. This is true even if those millions of people have an 80 IQ). This is the basis for artificial intelligence- lots of dumb self learning pathways that ultimately get the answer right. That is what smart Liberals just don't understand. They always think they are so smart that their policies will fix the world.

The things SOL told me that I didn't "hear" until it happened include "pigs get slaughtered" "be careful catching a falling knife", "Options require high risk tolerance". "Stick to your lot sizes". The big lesson is don't buy a stock after it's run up.

[SOL]

That's great, but you still need to be able to pull the trigger.

And be ready to feel like you made the wrong move when you initially do. Everything that looks risky ends up feeling riskier once you take the first step. It's only when you learn to deal with the risk that you understand that the initial feeling of fear or despair is because you are too obsessed with the outcome. Instead of focussing on the forest, you are focussing on the tree and in doing so you forget why you even decided to take the risk in the first place. Experience goes a long way in creating a great investor. Book smarts, TA and even understanding of MP without actual field experience all amount to fancy fluff. Experience trumps almost everything else

I agree with what you're saying here. I may never put borrowed money on the line in the market - preferring instead to lend it out as "hard money" loans at 9%-12% interest. I lent 1/3 of it at 12% last year and that's paying the interest on the whole amount right now until I figure out how to deploy more of it with relative safety. I think as the FED ratchets up interest rates the banks will pull credit back and the opportunities to loan on real estate where people put 30% down and borrow 70% at 9.5% will become more common. Some of those loans are out there now but relatively few (and they carry high risk such as loaning on undeveloped land for construction)

Experience with money on the line. It is interesting how people can tell you things and you don't absorb the message until your own money is at risk.

Swerving into politics for just a moment this, I think, is the mistake that PhD's often make in adopting liberal politics and policies. They can study business. Learn about economics. Teach others. And yet make the silliest mistakes in pontificating about what would be good for society. Any business owner can listen to them and realize they are blind men feeling the leg of an elephant and telling everyone it is a tree trunk. It is comical to listen to NPR these days. I call it NPPR for National Poor People Radio. A series of learned and intelligent people getting almost everything they say wrong. And emphasizing all the wrong policies. They haven't learned that no Von Neuman architecture can outperform parallel processing if the problem lends itself to parallel (which politics and economics do because millions of people making millions of decisions that benefit themselves works much better than a single central processor- even if that central processor is genius. This is true even if those millions of people have an 80 IQ). This is the basis for artificial intelligence- lots of dumb self learning pathways that ultimately get the answer right. That is what smart Liberals just don't understand. They always think they are so smart that their policies will fix the world.

The things SOL told me that I didn't "hear" until it happened include "pigs get slaughtered" "be careful catching a falling knife", "Options require high risk tolerance". "Stick to your lot sizes". The big lesson is don't buy a stock after it's run up.

You might actually disrupt the trend and become one of the first geniuses that understands the basic tenets of the stock market game. In terms of business acumen I would never go against you.

[harryg]

TT - you do not ever need to put borrowed money in the market. It's only a type of greed after all.

It is true that as with everything (eg business) you must do it yourself before you really understand the ins and outs. The difference between theory and practice is legendary. I'm sure I could do an MBA course and come to you with a fantastically bright idea and you would immediately know that it has no chance whatsoever of working.

Another issue is that it's very difficult to just accept what someone else tells you, even if that person is an expert. Well I find it difficult anyway. I take ideas on board but I need to find out for myself.

On a slightly related topic, I'd like to address the topic of having big brass balls, as many like to say or attribute to others. Successful investing has nothing whatsoever to do with the size or substance of one's testicles.

When someone says big balls, what they precisely mean is a Big Risk, specifically an outsize risk. The taking of outsize risks is an almost guaranteed route to ruin.

These type of risks become legendary when they work, but even more legendary when they don't. Barings Bank, Sumitomo (copper), LTCM, Société Générale and others all got into big trouble due to lack of the most basic risk management.

Be content with normal-size balls and live to fight another day.

[AstuteShift]

I have another portfolio which is 2020 AI birth portfolio, I don’t look at it and keep accumulating until the mega bubble pops

@yy: what assets do you hold in your AIBP (A.I. Birth Portfolio)?

Yes do tell.

And by the way, LD, using YY may not be appropriate any longer since it looks like his avatar identifies as a very different character. In this day and age you may need to check yourself.

Haha, battousai more like it, the samurai era was an intense one

The AI birth portfolio contains AMD, NVDA, Intel, HIMX, IBM as the core stocks

The core ETFs is ROBO, LIT, SOXX and QQQ.

These core positions won’t be sold until the AI bubble tops out.