Commodities affected by Potential Q4 crash: Your thoughts?

[xkosmox]

In the Jan 2022 Plunder Down Under update, it was mentioned
"We are due for a commodities bull market" should read "We are in a commodities bull market". This is
demonstrated by the S and P commodities index chart below, and there is a clear breakout.
The question we should be asking is "How long will it last?", and in so doing, question our assumptions.
One assumption is that we are coming into a supercycle and that the current boom has many years to
run. You will be tempted to leave profits on the table as stocks rise if you believe this. We suggest that
profits should be taken when the trading signals are given.
There are risks specific to some commodities, and also, with a major market collapse, all commodities
will be affected by contagion. Yes, even gold if history is anything to go by.

As some of us here have stakes in the Gold/Palladium MU recommendations, or/and in the Plunder Down Under recommendations

I'm considering buying more commodities at this point in time, but since some are longterm, im contemplating whether its better to do so after the major crash in Q4.

In your opinions, would that potential crash bring all the commodity prices down with it too?

[Yodean]

In your opinions, would that potential crash bring all the commodity prices down with it too?

If the Q4 Massacre comes to pass, commodities will also crash, at least for a time. Keep in mind that the markets have a habit of proving everyone wrong, so it's not written in stone, especially when it comes to the Q4 Massacre occurring as projected.

My basic approach is to treat each commodity separately. I kind of put precious metals in the "commodity" basket as well, for the most part.

For precious metals (PM), I started taking profits on all my holdings when gold first broke above $1950 recently. I've always had some gold holdings for over 10+ years, sometimes as high as 25% of my portfolio, so it feels strange to hold no PMs at the moment. The plan is to start accumulating PM assets when the gold to silver ratio becomes > 80, and when gold falls back to the $1870 to $1850 range or below. In similar vein, waiting for silver to drop below $22.50 preferably, for accumulation.

Recently bought some palladium when it was around $2200, and took minor profits before the retracement. Will prolly buy a bit when it drops below $2200 or so. I suspect platinum is basing around $1k, and will have a nice bull run at some point, as well, playing "catch-up" to palladium.

I have been HODLing a copper-nickel streamer (Nova Royalty) for some time now. Will probably look to sell a portion if and when copper pops into the 5.3+ range or so, we'll see.

Had a very quick SCO (short oil ETF) swing-trade recently, took nice profits. Looking to rinse and repeat ... if/when oil goes above $115 - $120, I start accumulating SCO, all the way to $150 if need be. Then start taking profits between $90 and $100 or so. I think oil will park somewhere in the $60 to $80 range, not counting overshoots to the downside.

Uranium has been very profitable for me for a few years now - I will always HODL a portion, and swing-trade a portion. Currently have both URNM and URA.

Also bought a few lots of KRBN for HODLing during its recent correction, around $40. I include this in a discussion about commodities as its a global carbon ETF - yeh, I am gonna profit off the Greta trend! LMAO.

[harryg]

Had a very quick SCO (short oil ETF) swing-trade recently, took nice profits. Looking to rinse and repeat ... if/when oil goes above $115 - $120, I start accumulating SCO, all the way to $150 if need be. Then start taking profits between $90 and $100 or so. I think oil will park somewhere in the $60 to $80 range, not counting overshoots to the downside.

Uranium has been very profitable for me for a few years now - I will always HODL a portion, and swing-trade a portion. Currently have both URNM and URA.

Also bought a few lots of KRBN for HODLing during its recent correction, around $40. I include this in a discussion about commodities as its a global carbon ETF - yeh, I am gonna profit off the Greta trend! LMAO.

SCO worth a look - good swing-trade, you often have to be nimble with the leveraged ones...

Uranium undeniable trend, is outlier risk there with reactors in a warzone (?)

KRBN is an interesting one...

[Yodean]

Uranium undeniable trend, is outlier risk there with reactors in a warzone (?)

KRBN is an interesting one...

Yeh, the biggest "black swan" event for uranium is likely some sort of nuclear disaster, Fukushima-style, which will destroy the uranium bull run for many years. But then I guess it wouldn't really be a "black swan," which by definition is something that is not anticipated (e.g. the depth of Vlad's current Russian Peacekeeping Mission).

I'll wait if and when oil pops above $115 - $120 before redeploying SCO - in the current Sea of Blood, it's been a nice little swing-trade, along with taking profits on the precious metals and palladium. Oil is dropping pretty fast ... perhaps pricing in some "good" news later this week?

KRBN I will hold until something similar, but better, comes along. The group behind Nova Royalty and Metalla Royalty (Brett Heath, E.B. Tucker) is coming out with a carbon credit streamer - probably nearer the end of the year, in terms of public listing. Generally, they're pretty successful. Both Metalla and Nova have been quite good to me, on balance, the last few years.

If I weren't kind of lazy about this kind of thing, I would probably invest in their current round of fundraising. Here's E.B. talking a bit about it, available for those who like to "10x or better":


https://youtu.be/Jzr82GhC5xo

[harryg]

KRBN I will hold until something similar, but better, comes along. The group behind Nova Royalty and Metalla Royalty (Brett Heath, E.B. Tucker) is coming out with a carbon credit streamer - probably nearer the end of the year, in terms of public listing. Generally, they're pretty successful. Both Metalla and Nova have been quite good to me, on balance, the last few years.

If I weren't kind of lazy about this kind of thing, I would probably invest in their current round of fundraising. Here's E.B. talking a bit about it, available for those who like to "10x or better":

Thanks for this info.

I watched the whole vid even though

• I don't like videos - just don't watch most of them due to time constraints and the inevitable wafflyness of the medium - I can usually read & digest the text of a 30 mins video in less than 5

• Not that keen on Stansberry Research but I can't remember why now. Must've been a reason...

Do you think Metalla & Nova are still interesting now?

Signed up for more info on the carbon credit thingy, gotta be a part of the Greeny Wotsit Brigade - if you can't beat 'em...

Sillygreeniness just4u:
https://ibb.co/5s6sPRx
https://ibb.co/jyT4zfj

[Yodean]

Do you think Metalla & Nova are still interesting now?

I sold all my Metalla after gold broke $1950 recently. It's basically a leveraged play on gold and silver. Franco Nevada and Wheaton are also similar, except they're bigger than Metalla. FNV is more gold, WPM more silver, but both are good leveraged plays on the precious metals - I held all three (MTA, FNV, WPM, and even MMX) for quite a while before selling them recently. Good for swing-trading a portion, too, if you're into that (I did a lot of that over the last several years).

The TIT has a very strong record when it comes to precious metals, so I'll probably load up when their entry points are hit for the PMs.

In the meantime, I'm pretty patient and will wait for my triggers mentioned previously, i.e. gold:silver > 80, gold <1870-1850, silver < 22.50, etc. Then I will get back in ... whether it's with SGOL and SLV, or + FNV/WPM/MTA, I haven't quite decided. Will look at their respective charts and decide how to allocate, when the time comes.

Already dipping into a significant amount of margin, so that's also a consideration, lol.

Nova is a leveraged play on copper/nickel. Long-term hold for me, but will likely sell a portion when copper tests >5.1 to 5.3 or so. I suspect the USD is going to trend sideways with bearish bias for several months, so commodities should do pretty well - until the projected Q4 Massacre.

[harryg]

I had quite a lot of Wheaton years ago when it was only silver.

Nova chart looks a bit odd to me, need to take a closer look.

The question of miners & royalty companies is an interesting one and with ESG headwinds there could be a further argument in favour of the latter (given that they are one-step removed).

5y:

GDX: +61%
GLD: +53%
FNV: +138%

SIL: +1%
SLV: +38%
WPM: +135%

...

[Yodean]

5y:

GDX: +61%
GLD: +53%
FNV: +138%

SIL: +1%
SLV: +38%
WPM: +135%

...

Nice summary. Nova is fairly new, so it's a bit of a dark horse.

Long-term, I don't think you can really go wrong with FNV and WPM. I noticed you didn't put MTA in there ... lol, it had a rough year last year. High upside potential, though ...

I used to trade some GDX a long time ago, but I stopped doing so because it holds too many "losers." The gains are mostly from a tiny proportion of its holdings, as I am sure you know.

GLD and SLV are fine, but I think SGOL (TIT rec) is smaller but better (less MER, cursory glance seems to show it does a tad better vs. GLD).

You alluded to this - the PM streamers are kind of "inbetween" bullion and miners in terms of risk and reward potential. PM streamers have very little overhead costs, and don't have to deal with the risk and expenses of miners - they get paid a % of what the miners get out of the ground, so to speak.

In a way, I see the PM streamers as kind of one's PM "vault" - i.e. they are "storing" the PMs for you below ground through their business models.

Easier and cheaper than having a real vault at home to store physical bullion.

[harryg]

I noticed you didn't put MTA in there ... lol, it had a rough year last year. High upside potential, though ...

Fair point, I put the 'main ones' in my mind. Metalla has done a lot better

MTA: +305%

[Yodean]

[xkosmox]

Interesting that the commodity charts share the same major ups and downs. But quite different in timeline from the S&P500 or am i missing something that the red arrows are meant to say?

[harryg]

Also bought a few lots of KRBN for HODLing during its recent correction, around $40. I include this in a discussion about commodities as its a global carbon ETF - yeh, I am gonna profit off the Greta trend! LMAO.

SEC Floats Mandatory Disclosure of Climate-Change Risks, Emissions

WASHINGTON-U.S. regulators proposed stringent requirements for publicly traded companies to report information on greenhouse-gas emissions and risks related to climate change, in one of the Biden administration's potentially most significant environmental actions to date.

The Securities and Exchange Commission formally offered a 534-page proposal Monday that would force publicly traded companies to report greenhouse-gas emissions from their own operations as well as from the energy they consume, and to obtain independent certification of their estimates.

[harryg]

Interesting that the commodity charts share the same major ups and downs. But quite different in timeline from the S&P500 or am i missing something that the red arrows are meant to say?

Negative correlation would be expected

Sharp rise in commods, stocks down

Commodities starting to fall? ...

[SOL]

Also bought a few lots of KRBN for HODLing during its recent correction, around $40. I include this in a discussion about commodities as its a global carbon ETF - yeh, I am gonna profit off the Greta trend! LMAO.

SEC Floats Mandatory Disclosure of Climate-Change Risks, Emissions

WASHINGTON-U.S. regulators proposed stringent requirements for publicly traded companies to report information on greenhouse-gas emissions and risks related to climate change, in one of the Biden administration's potentially most significant environmental actions to date.

The Securities and Exchange Commission formally offered a 534-page proposal Monday that would force publicly traded companies to report greenhouse-gas emissions from their own operations as well as from the energy they consume, and to obtain independent certification of their estimates.

All these developments indicate that the blind are leading the dumb. You could not ask for a more retarded set of western leaders even if you smoked crack a few years ago and yet here we are with a leader that says one thing in the morning and then forgets what he said in the evening and then repeats as something new the next day.
The US is topping a lot faster than expected which means many others cycles are going to accelerate at a faster pace. Polarisation levels are going to go through the roof. Very soon if you are in the west silence won't be enough you will have to swing in the same direction as the populace or risk getting shot

[Yodean]

WASHINGTON-U.S. regulators proposed stringent requirements for publicly traded companies to report information on greenhouse-gas emissions and risks related to climate change, in one of the Biden administration's potentially most significant environmental actions to date.

The Securities and Exchange Commission formally offered a 534-page proposal Monday that would force publicly traded companies to report greenhouse-gas emissions from their own operations as well as from the energy they consume, and to obtain independent certification of their estimates.

The nascent Green Greta Megatrend (GGM) is pretty much unstoppable at this point - this particular Demon Child has been birthed and is growing quickly - and will eventually merge with a lot of the other trends the TIT has been discussing.

For instance, individuals will be under constant surveillance (through some sort of digital ID) for their carbon footprint, and taxed accordingly - e.g. you fly more, you pay more, you buy more stuff the government deems is not "green" enough, you get taxed more, your wife spits out a few extra offspring, you pay more, and so forth ...

With the advent of various CBDCs in the next few years (digital CBDC for USD likely last to emerge), citizens will also be tracked in terms of their purchases, and the carbon tax applied accordingly, to each and every purchase.

There will be no escape for law-abiding peasants who do not know how to routinely break government degrees without succumbing to formal arrest.

The Dark and the Grey WISCs should do well enough. The Followers of Light will fade and be broken, for a time. This particular cycle does not favour the latter.

Hopefully, Jesus of Nazareth shows up once in a while, or maybe even Allah. The Buddha ain't coming - He's skipping this cycle, apparently, but He sends us His best wishes.

Dark Web barter systems, as well as cash barter systems, will grow and prosper, everywhere.

*****

In terms of investing, a lot of innovation is taking place in the voluntary carbon credits sector. The following clip is about one of these companies, set to go public in the near future. Super high-risk, and significant chance of abject failure, but also tremendous potential for upside:

https://youtu.be/dwKgRK1I8d4