Yodean wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:57 am
@Sol: I generally find your geopolitical analyses fairly amazing, and I still do.
With that said, to my eyes, the current situation in Ukraine has made NATO relevant again. Starting around the years of MAGA Trump, who brought up the question to the mainstream world that maybe NATO wasn't so important in this day and age, and that America shouldn't pay so much of NATO's expenses, there has been increasing support for this position.
Now, everything's changed. NATO is viewed as important again. I just heard even Finland wants to join NATO.
One of the benefactors of the current Ukraine conflict is the military-industrial complex. More money to defense contractors, weapons manufacturers, etc. LMT has done really well, in terms of its price action - I sold my position, took profits, bought more Skynet.
People wanting to Join NATO and it being relevant are not the same thing. Consider the FOMO strategy that most people put into play, and this always backfires, but they never FOMO when stocks are falling down.
Budge is right when he points that the West is out to vilify Putin, we concur with that. American Atrocities Make Putin almost look like Arcangel in comparison. But that is a separate story.
Back to NATO, have you seen what Putin said to Finland and Norway about Joining NATO? In short, the odds are over 70% that any other NATION close to Russia that thinks of Joining NATO is going to get attacked. We suspect that Putin's long game is to use Ukraine as a Training Ground for what is to come. Nobody remembers the CUBAN crisis, America was ready to go to war with USSR and CUBA because of possible missile installations on the Island. These installations were approved by the Cuban government, and the US had no right to make a big deal about this. So why did they, because CUBA is right on their doorstep. This is the same reason Putin is attacking Ukraine, for years on end, especially in the last 8 years he has stated that Ukraine should not be allowed into this organization.
Let me stop here and be clear that we are not supporting Putin's actions. We are viewing the development from a non-biased Observer-based angle.
Ukraine should have known that the US was toying with them. They did the same thing with Georgia and look what happened to Georgia. Our GP index is stating something unusual is going to happen. Unfortunately, this index does not issue a timeline of when this event will occur. However, by taking a look at other indices and what is going on in the world, it appears that Putin's long term red line has been crossed. This is very dangerous. As we stated many times in the past Russians (Slavs) are slow to anger and generally can keep their cool for extended periods, but when that line is hit and it is normally quite difficult to determine where that line is. You have to pay close attention to psychological cues, but in this instance, Putin gave advance warning and no one paid attention.
The Russian bear is slow to anger but once pissed off, you better run, for nothing is going to stop this massive creature from taking its revenge. However when the red line is crossed. You have three options, Run, Die or try to kill the bear.
Attacking Ukraine was the first step and warning for other nations that are surrounding Russia that NATO or the US cannot protect them. The next warning if this one is not taken seriously is that he will attack 1-3 NATO countries and the odds are over 75% that no one will attack Russia. There is not one country in Europe that can take on Russia and it has been stated that Russia could actually defeat the whole of Europe. As for the US jumping, tell me when did the US ever take on an enemy that could hit back. Russia is not Syria, Libya, Guatemala, Vietnam, Iraq, North Korea, Afghanistan, etc. Russia can hit back and hit back very hard.
Unless the West takes Russia seriously now, Putin will do what Trump failed. He will destroy NATO by attacking Several 1 to 3 NATO members and put all of Europe on notice. If they push him to do this, then his demands are going to be monstrous. A new world order is taking shape before AI takes over everything, but for now, the New world order is going to create extreme polarisation. No matter what the experts state, Russia and China will continue to deepen ties, for this slogan applies to them. The enemy of my enemy is my Friend.
I will add more when time permits as this is a huge topic and most experts are completely clueless they think the old World order is going to last. For now, expect something totally unexpected and this might be the precursor for the bigger correction in the 4th quarter. At this point, America should try to end the standoff by finding a means to negotiate with Russia otherwise we suspect in less than 18 months an Event will occur that will mark the peak of America's power. The US won't end after that, but it will mark the top in terms of military might for the US. Only in hindsight will individuals be in a position to say, yeah that was the year US peaked. The USD will continue to rally so this will add fuel to the all is well theory. Okay to be continued on another day
I sincerely hope I am 1000% wrong,
