FJB's Infrastructure Legislation Pitfalls

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Budge
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FJB's Infrastructure Legislation Pitfalls

Post by Budge »

Gotta pass it to find out what's in it. According to this email from the Nestmann Group, there's the potential for "criminalization" of crypto trading for US folks in this legislation. Surprised I am. ;) ;)

Turning Crypto Users into Felons
We frequently comment on the almost uniquely American practice of “criminalization”—the conversion of our daily activities into crimes. For instance, we recently discussed how a Google search for the wrong term could lead to a possible prison sentence.

The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill President Biden signed on November 15 is the latest example of this trend. It contains two poison pills for anyone who buys or sells cryptocurrencies—what the bill refers to as “digital assets” —that could easily turn them into felons.

The provision that’s received the most publicity requires “brokers” of digital assets to report information for transactions above $10,000 to the IRS. Conceptually, this is similar to the rules requiring that financial institutions that pay interest or dividends to investors should report these payments on Form 1099 to the agency. To comply with this rule, federal law requires brokers to obtain the name, address, and Social Security number of their customers.

This sounds simple enough, but in the context of cryptocurrencies, it’s not. To begin with, the law defines a “broker” as “any person who (for consideration) is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This definition is obviously intended to cover crypto exchanges like Coinbase—but many crypto transactions don’t occur on an exchange.

What’s more, the definition is so broad that crypto miners, and even software developers might need to report crypto transactions above $10,000 to the IRS. This poses a particular risk to miners, who generate income by using computers to perform complex mathematical calculations that verify transactions on a blockchain. In effect, for a decentralized blockchain like bitcoin, all current bitcoin owners jointly pay the miner. Compliance with the law in this situation is obviously impossible.

Another problem is that it’s not possible for an exchange to report accurate information to the IRS unless the same exchange is used for both sides of the transaction. For instance, if you buy crypto on one exchange and sell it on a different one, the value of the entire transaction will show up as a capital gain on the Form 1099 the second exchange sends to the IRS.

A similar issue arises for crypto traders who keep their coins offline, in a “cold wallet.” This is an excellent security strategy to avoid online theft. As a simple example, let’s say you own one bitcoin you purchased several years ago for $20,000. You store it in a Trezor cold wallet. In 2021, you decide to take profits and upload the bitcoin to Coinbase, where you sell it for $60,000. Coinbase has no way of knowing your cost basis, so again the entire value shows up as a capital gain on Form 1099.

Also keep in mind that most domestic crypto exchanges don’t actually issue Form 1099-B, although they will presumably develop this capability before the law goes into effect in 2023. For instance, Coinbase currently issues Form 1099-MISC to its US customers. That form only lists the rewards or fees you’ve earned on Coinbase, not your trading profits or losses. To calculate those, you’ll need a third-party tool like CoinTracker.

But there’s another worrisome part of the bill that’s not as well known, at least not yet. And it’s even worse. It defines all “digital assets” as the equivalent of cash and applies the anti-money-laundering rules that apply to cash transactions to them. That means anyone who receives the equivalent of $10,000 or more in a digital asset must report the transaction to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) on Form 8300. If the buyer is purchasing a digital asset (e.g., using bitcoin to purchase Ethereum), they must also file Form 8300.

Failure to comply with these requirements is a felony punishable by a civil penalty not smaller than $25,000 or a criminal penalty ranging from $250,000-$500,000 and a five-year prison sentence. Presumably, it will also be illegal for someone to make a series of smaller but related crypto transactions that if summed up would equal or exceed $10,000 to avoid this reporting obligation. That crime is called “structuring” and is subject to the same penalties.

The problem is that the Form 8300 rules date back to 1984 and are set up to cover the physical receipt of cash. They simply don’t translate to the digital world. For instance, the instructions require the person filing it to “furnish the correct [taxpayer identification number] of the person or persons from whom you receive the cash, and if applicable, the person or persons on whose behalf the transaction is being conducted. You may be subject to penalties for an incorrect or missing TIN.”

This is an impossible burden for crypto traders to overcome. Crypto payments are made to a digital address like “1BvBMSEYstWetqTFn5Au4m4GFg7xJaNVN2.” Most traders don’t know the beneficial owner of the digital address when they send or receive crypto to or from it. The address could be owned by an individual, a business, or have multiple owners. One person can own several different addresses with no personal information available linking them together. What’s more, if the person or company you’re receiving crypto from isn’t US-based, they won’t have a TIN.

This provision is the single biggest reason why many crypto traders will likely become felons in the years ahead.

The good news, if there is any, is that both of these provisions won’t come into effect until 2023. There are already efforts underway in Congress to narrow the definition of “broker.” We can only hope that Congress also revisits the extension of Form 8300 filing requirements to digital assets.

There are no easy solutions here. Calculating capital gains and losses is feasible using third-party software and we recommend you use it to avoid the IRS’s crypto dragnet. However, it seems likely that the gains and losses tracked by such software won’t necessarily match the 1099-B forms crypto exchanges receive from the IRS. If there’s a mismatch, you could start receiving threatening letters from the IRS, which can be time consuming and expensive to resolve.

Perhaps the easiest solution is to conduct all your crypto transactions on a single exchange, so that the Form 1099 it sends to the IRS reflects an accurate picture of your actual capital gains.

The Form 8300 dilemma is even more difficult to resolve. Barring an amendment that strips this reporting obligation from the law, we don’t see any good solutions. However, we think it’s likely that the regulations interpreting the law will be written so that if you buy or sell digital assets through a financial institution, the filing requirement would be waived. Instead, the financial institution would file its own version of the form; a Currency Transaction Report.

And if you’re not willing to comply with the new rules? In that event, you have two options.

Option #1 is to risk heavy fines and a possible prison term if you’re caught.

Option #2 is to drop out of the system altogether by finding a more crypto-friendly country to live in, acquiring a second citizenship, and subsequently giving up your US citizenship and passport. It may sound like a radical solution, but over the years, we’ve helped dozens of people execute it.
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Yodean
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Re: FJB's Infrastructure Legislation Pitfalls

Post by Yodean »

One may invest in cryptos using proxies, i.e. GBTC, BITW, ETHE, NFTZ, BITO, etc. Sure, high fees, poor tracking at times, etc., but you avoid a bit of the U.S. DeepState stuff.

I still believe BTC is under the full control of the U.S. three-letter agencies, in any case. I've typed lots about this in other threads.
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Bitcoin crumbling or?

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So far it looks like SOL's warning of avoiding Bitcoin is on mark and the guy many of us also follow is wrong. He claimed bitcoin was heading for new highs. I Sold half of my bitcoin holdings when SOL stated it the risk to reward ratio was against opening long positions. Yodean do you think Bitcoin can recover. I am debating closing at least 80% of my remaining long positions. I found it quite interesting when SOL stated that the Fear greed index for Bitcoin was flawed
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Re: Bitcoin crumbling or?

Post by AstuteShift »

outof thebox wrote: Sat Dec 11, 2021 2:25 pm So far it looks like SOL's warning of avoiding Bitcoin is on mark and the guy many of us also follow is wrong. He claimed bitcoin was heading for new highs. I Sold half of my bitcoin holdings when SOL stated it the risk to reward ratio was against opening long positions. Yodean do you think Bitcoin can recover. I am debating closing at least 80% of my remaining long positions. I found it quite interesting when SOL stated that the Fear greed index for Bitcoin was flawed
There is still way too many hopium to the moon people all over the place, Twitter/YouTube etc.

Hell I even heard of strippers or porn stars talk about which NFTS to buy for the next bull run

That is the clearest signal that the masses are going to get destroyed
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Way of the Ninjedi (WON)

Post by Yodean »

Image

*****

EBI has flashed a rare 87%buy/13%sell signal, as of this moment.

My base case currently is that BTC will challenge ATHs, at least one more time, and likely break to the upside, between now and Q1/Q2 2022, before the Slaughter of '22 comes to pass.

The challenge for me right now is assessing whether it will first drop to the 38k - 42k range (for me, Stepmother of All Buy Signals, while 28k - 32k is the MOAB, and sub-25k is the FOAB) before the base case comes to pass.

My current crypto. allocation is about 15% of my net worth, so I won't be adding too much more - I may perhaps be called crazy, but not suicidal, lol - but I will probably look to add a bit more next week, assuming the crypto. whales don't do too much to the BTC-ETH prices this weekend.

*****

One of the classic TIT maxims is that "the trend is your friend."

In other words, when push comes to shove, the "trend" trumps technical and fundamental analyses.

The true challenge, perhaps, is deciding whether something is a "trend," or "FOMO."

It's a bit tricky at times because a "trend" may look like "FOMO" in the initial stages of formation.

Or there could be a layer of "FOMO" on top of a quickly growing "baby trend."

For example, when the mobile phone trend was just starting to develop, a lot of curmudgeons at that time were saying people were "FOMOing" into smart phones. Same with the internet. The people riding horses thought that steam engines were "FOMO," as well, early on. Etc.

We all have to decide for ourselves how much of the crypto. space is "FOMO" and how much is a true, powerful, underlying trend. It's a mix of both, of course, but how much of each?
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SPACs

Post by Yodean »

Image

*****

Looks a bit like the BTC graph posted earlier, doesn't it?

From a certain perspective, BTC (and cryptos in general) could be viewed as the ultimate "risk-on" asset of the moment.

I expect it to fall before the true Slaughter of '22 begins in earnest - after a nice run to ATHs, perhaps. So BTC could be that "canary in the coal mine," one of those signals of when the general equity markets may experience a significant decline in '22.

Of course, I could be totally, totally wrong ... it wouldn't be the first time.

:lol:
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Bitcoin Fear Greed Indicator appears to be faulty

Post by SOL »

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is down more than 20% from its record high and is set for its fourth straight weekly decline. Crypto bulls, as always, are keeping the faith. That includes MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who added bitcoin to his company’s balance sheet last year. Since then, he’s been an outspoken advocate. Right now, he doesn’t see many — any? — long-term obstacles to prices going higher.

“The only legitimate risk is a black swan – an unknown unknown,” he said in an interview. He dismissed some potential challenges: “Has it been hacked? No, it hasn’t been hacked. Is it going to be banned? No, it’s not going to be banned. Can it be copied? We copied it ten thousand times. Every copy has failed.”

Saylor has said that he believes bitcoin can go up forever, a sentiment he repeated to Yahoo Finance Live. Two of the main drivers, he said, are technology adoption and inflation

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstr ... 21148.html

Every Tom, Dick and Harry is starting to think like this and when we hear the words faith, it tells us a lot. Faith is blind and is based on irrational forces not logical and critical thinking is dead when Faith starts to do the talking.

If this was the first huge upward move in this market we would state that the odds are high that BTC could challenge its highs before pulling back sharply. Right now the odds are less than 27% Bitcoin is in a position to do that. However, cryptocurrencies are unique in the sense they will go through many tulip bubble phases and then they will blow up or Central bankers will come in and take over the market.

For now, the risk to reward ratio is not in favour of owning cryptocurrencies. If GBTC closes below 33 three days in a row but preferably on a monthly basis, then 25 is next
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Re: FJB's Infrastructure Legislation Pitfalls

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Is it going to be banned? No, it’s not going to be banned.
Indeed, no government can outright "ban bitcoin", but:
  • Can a government criminalize owning or transacting in certain cryptocurrencies? Yes, easily. Just ramp up a bs war on drugs / cybercrime / terrorism / climate change narrative.
  • Can a government tax certain cryptos to death? Sure.
  • Can a government come up with regulations that allow only certain players, say institutional and accredited investors, to own these assets? Why not. Now, if I want to put 10k into a private placement deal, I need to be protected against myself. But gamble my entire life savings on dogecoin? The regulator says: "Knock yourself out." Seems a tad inconsistent. But then again, maybe luring retail into cryptos was part of The Plan.
Will some governments do any of the above? I don't know. But if a coin allows individuals to get around their CBDCs, it sure makes sense for the big players to control the competition.
Governments and central banks don’t like the idea that citizens can choose to participate in an alternative economic system. They prefer centralized control and surveillance.

Bank of Russia, for example, is exploring a permission-based digital ruble that can restrict what a person can buy.

Speaking at Cyber Polygon 2021, Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin said the digital ruble “will permit better traceability of payments and money flow, and also explore the possibility of setting conditions on permitted terms of use of a given unit of currency.”

The Russian central bank authority said that parents could give the digital currency to their children with certain restrictions, such as blocking them from buying junk food.

“Just imagine that you are able to give your kids some money in digital rubles and then restrict their use for purchase of junk food, for example.

“That would be a useful functionality for a customer, and of course you can come up with hundreds of other similar use cases,” Zabotkin added.
https://sociable.co/government-and-poli ... ablecoins/

I'll let you imagine what those hundreds of other similar use cases can be.

After trimming my crypto holdings lately, I still have a 3% allocation to it. And at this point, it's house money. If we get another leg up, I'll look to trim down to a 1-2% position.
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Game on!

Post by Yodean »

nicolas wrote: Sun Dec 12, 2021 3:42 pm After trimming my crypto holdings lately, I still have a 3% allocation to it. And at this point, it's house money. If we get another leg up, I'll look to trim down to a 1-2% position.
Alritey, game on!

Two crypto. bulls, both CryptoNinja (a.k.a. Symbios) and NuclearNinja (a.k.a. nicolas), appear to have turned bearish on BTC recently.

Here, I will lean heavily on the TIT hypothesis that when knowledgeable bulls in a particular sector throw in the towel, an interim bottom is usually in, or close to being in.

EBI has changed to 75%buy/25%sell with BTC barely holding on to the 48k-52k zone and ETH on life support in the 3.9k to 4.1k zone this weekend, but bravely hold the line they did ... so far.

The EBI has performed surprisingly well to date, way beyond my modest expectations. It called an interim bottom around 30k this past June, as well as the recent ATHs around 69k.

On a technical level, depending on the time frame used, BTC is still making higher highs and higher lows. Same with ETH.

*****

As for BTC being a threat to CBDCs, my view is slightly different. Despite recent news of who Satoshi Nakamoto really is (full of holes, the trial was), it is still unclear to me what is his true identity.

My base case remains BTC is a U.S.S.A.-three-letter agency sponsored project at its inception, which was then handed over to a small group of talented hackers to further develop and refine.

To this day, to my knowledge, not a single cent of Satoshi's approximate 1.1 million BTCs has changed wallets.

In any case, what I see shaping up is not a war between BTC and CBDCs in general - it is a colossal war between the yuan CBDC and the USD as the world's reserve currency.

My current understanding is that the CCP is going to incentivize all 142 countries currently part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to use the yuan CBDC.

This constitutes a direct threat to current USD hegemony. The U.S.S.A. will have a difficult time creating its own CBDC, as approximately 70% of USD cash is held outside the U.S.S.A., to my knowledge. Plus a lot of the Reds, Independents, Purebloods, Vax Remorsed, and even some of the center Blues will put up significant opposition to the creation of a true U.S. CBDC.

BTC, in reality, is a powerful pawn in the true Game of Thrones - the War of Currencies - as a proxy store of value that will pull BRI nations from having to be forced into using the yuan CBDC exclusively.

In a very direct way, BTC will actually help King USD maintain its supremacy by hurting the yuan CBDC much more than the USD. All will continue to bend the knee to USD domination.

But yeh, the price of BTC is a yo-yo, but then again, YOLO! Plus we are already in a Metaverse.

:lol:
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Re: Game on!

Post by nicolas »

Yodean wrote: Mon Dec 13, 2021 5:12 am Two crypto. bulls, both CryptoNinja (a.k.a. Symbios) and NuclearNinja (a.k.a. nicolas), appear to have turned bearish on BTC recently.

Here, I will lean heavily on the TIT hypothesis that when knowledgeable bulls in a particular sector throw in the towel, an interim bottom is usually in, or close to being in.
Not that I mind my contribution being used as a part of a sentiment indicator, that's what it's for :lol: But in the interest of accuracy, I should add that:
- My base case is actually similar to yours: another challenge of ATH, then a steep fall. At which point I'll likely be a buyer again.
- I don't think I'd qualify as a crypto-bull, I've always approached this space as a sort of Ponzi scheme whose volatility and cult-like following can be very profitable when bought at the right time and then sold to euphoric gamblers.
- I capped my allocation to cryptos at 5% and on this one, I've been disciplined, selling into each rally to new ATHs. So, the current 2.8% figure is not that bearish for me. I'd say it reflects my best guess at what the current asymmetry is. Not as good as it was in May - June in the 30-33k range. And definitely not as good as during the crypto winter of 2019. Maybe I'm even being too bullish now :mrgreen:

Interesting view on the balance of power between an e-Yuan and a USD - BTC arranged marriage. It sure will be fun to see how this all unfolds in the next few years!
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CFC

Post by Yodean »

https://youtu.be/S5y0BVj1A2I

*****

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Re: CFC

Post by SOL »

Yodean wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:06 am https://youtu.be/S5y0BVj1A2I

*****

Small company throwing a toothpick at the Beast of Tyranny, a.k.a. the Canadian Fascist Government.
The AI trend is gaining momentum faster and faster. The big players (really medium-fat tunas) don't understand what they embraced and pushed for. Now it will come to bite them in the arse. At this point if a Burro was running for president I would overwhelmingly vote for the burro :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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