To pe or not to pe, that is my question

[harryg]

My investments are at least half in Tech / AI companies. Many of these currently have 'high' P/E ratios, ie at least 2x the S&P or Nasdaq. For example, NVDA, ASML, AMZN and so on.

The way I learned about the markets, this is not supposed to be A Good Thing. However, I find from simple observation that often the high P/E is tempered by good earnings, and then off it goes again.

However, I assume that MP could see high P/E ratios as a sign of excessive bullishness/greed?

Of course I appreciate that it's even better to buy any company when relatively cheap, which I did with some of them years ago, (and we have INTC at the moment).

[Yodean]

[SOL]

My investments are at least half in Tech / AI companies. Many of these currently have 'high' P/E ratios, ie at least 2x the S&P or Nasdaq. For example, NVDA, ASML, AMZN and so on.

The way I learned about the markets, this is not supposed to be A Good Thing. However, I find from simple observation that often the high P/E is tempered by good earnings, and then off it goes again.

However, I assume that MP could see high P/E ratios as a sign of excessive bullishness/greed?

Of course I appreciate that it's even better to buy any company when relatively cheap, which I did with some of them years ago, (and we have INTC at the moment).

A few years ago there were more free-market forces. At this point without Mass Psychology, we are all just gamblers in a casino with the house changing existing rules and making new rules based on whims.

High PE stocks tend to perform better in the long run, but then you have periods of bloodletting that individuals mistake for the end. In other words, they assume that bloodletting was a sign that playing with high PE stocks was a bad idea. When stocks runup inadvertently a lot of crappy stocks run-up and these stocks have insane PE's. So the idea is to focus on companies that have a viable product that continues to get better, are innovators in their field. If they are not making money yet, their earnings are at least in an uptrend and they have some sort of viable plan to being profitable

[harryg]

Thank you for your input.

Unfortunately my jokey subject line has taken a prophetic turn as I am currently enjoying a urinary tract infection.
Not one for pills but have accepted an antibiotic. Was also prescribed an anti-inflammatory called Naproxen. Side effects listed include heart attack and stroke, so have decided to embrace the pain instead

[Yodean]

At this point without Mass Psychology, we are all just gamblers in a casino with the house changing existing rules and making new rules based on whims.

These is my favourite type of market ... experience and a background in poker may be quite helpful these days.

[bpcw]

At this point without Mass Psychology, we are all just gamblers in a casino with the house changing existing rules and making new rules based on whims.

These is my favourite type of market ... experience and a background in poker may be quite helpful these days.

Accept when you normally play poker the rules don't keep changing as you're playing!

[SOL]

Thank you for your input.

Unfortunately my jokey subject line has taken a prophetic turn as I am currently enjoying a urinary tract infection.
Not one for pills but have accepted an antibiotic. Was also prescribed an anti-inflammatory called Naproxen. Side effects listed include heart attack and stroke, so have decided to embrace the pain instead

I was doing some research a few years ago on the benefits of taking multiple antibiotics albeit low dosage. I found a lot of data illustrating this worked quite well One would take two or three antibiotics a day, 7-8 hours apart. So A would be taken at 6 in the morning, for example, B at a1 or 2 and C at 8 or 9. However the dosage was low.for example if the normal dosage of Azithromycin was 500mg, the most one would take would be 250mg for the first day and then drop it to under 200 for the second day and then to 150mg and keep lowering as one felt better. The same rules would apply for Anitobotic B and C.

Shortly after I finished this research, a friend got a pretty bad urinary infection and I mentioned what I had found. He was game and decided to try it. So he took Azithromycin at 250 for day 1, 7-8 hours later about 100mg Tetracycline and amoxicillin in the 150mg ranges. He kept lowering them as he felt better. He said he felt better within 24 hours, within three days the infection was gone and he stopped taking them at the end of the 5th day. Since then he has recommended that approach to several family members and friends and the results were all positive.

This is not medical advice. just some general information on what others have done.

[Yodean]

Accept when you normally play poker the rules don't keep changing as you're playing!

In the past - I gave up playing poker regularly a few years ago - I've played poker at several casinos where at some point, some players were caught cheating (e.g. hiding large denomination chips in their pockets which they would try to sneak unto the table when they picked up aces, that sorta thing).

I still won consistently, on balance.

To me, it's the same with markets ... the successful WISC investor-trader does her best to factor the "cheatin'" by the Fed, other central banks, Goldman Sachs, et. al. into her analyses.

The markets are always "right" - eventually.

[outof thebox]

I think you if understand MP properly. You can buy the right dip. What does this mean? Bullish sentiment should be low or Neutral sentiment high. Markets should be trading close to the oversold or extremely oversold ranges on the weekly charts. Point in case, I loaded up on TQQQ when the markets recently pulled back. My average price before the split was roughly 139.00 (69.50). I sold over half for an average price of 79.00. One reason i sold over half was that I really loaded up on it and second I was sitting on such handsome gains. Holding time less than two weeks.

Bullish sentiment was low, idiots index gave a positive signal, markets were trading in the extremely oversold ranges and panic levels were rising. From a strategic point of view it made for a good investment. I am also slowly closing out my winning positions in anticipation of better prices. But from past experience I understand that I will have to be patient

[harryg]

I was doing some research a few years ago on the benefits of taking multiple antibiotics albeit low dosage. I found a lot of data illustrating this worked quite well One would take two or three antibiotics a day, 7-8 hours apart. So A would be taken at 6 in the morning, for example, B at a1 or 2 and C at 8 or 9. However the dosage was low.for example if the normal dosage of Azithromycin was 500mg, the most one would take would be 250mg for the first day and then drop it to under 200 for the second day and then to 150mg and keep lowering as one felt better. The same rules would apply for Anitobotic B and C.

Shortly after I finished this research, a friend got a pretty bad urinary infection and I mentioned what I had found. He was game and decided to try it. So he took Azithromycin at 250 for day 1, 7-8 hours later about 100mg Tetracycline and amoxicillin in the 150mg ranges. He kept lowering them as he felt better. He said he felt better within 24 hours, within three days the infection was gone and he stopped taking them at the end of the 5th day. Since then he has recommended that approach to several family members and friends and the results were all positive.

This is not medical advice. just some general information on what others have done.

Thank you Sol, all info is useful.

[Yodean]

You can buy the right dip. What does this mean? Bullish sentiment should be low or Neutral sentiment high. Markets should be trading close to the oversold or extremely oversold ranges on the weekly charts. Point in case, I loaded up on TQQQ when the markets recently pulled back. My average price before the split was roughly 139.00 (69.50). I sold over half for an average price of 79.00.

Bullish sentiment was low, idiots index gave a positive signal, markets were trading in the extremely oversold ranges and panic levels were rising.

Yeh, that approach works quite well with BTC, as well. Congrats on your gains.

[outof thebox]

You can buy the right dip. What does this mean? Bullish sentiment should be low or Neutral sentiment high. Markets should be trading close to the oversold or extremely oversold ranges on the weekly charts. Point in case, I loaded up on TQQQ when the markets recently pulled back. My average price before the split was roughly 139.00 (69.50). I sold over half for an average price of 79.00.

Bullish sentiment was low, idiots index gave a positive signal, markets were trading in the extremely oversold ranges and panic levels were rising.

Yeh, that approach works quite well with BTC, as well. Congrats on your gains.

This knowledge did not come easily, mostly due to my stubbornness to constantly fight TI's system at the begining. On that Note I must Sol and his team are the most easy going guys i have met. In the early days I was a real prick in terms of constantly questioning their strategy and trying to second guess them. And all I had to show for this arrogance was a bunch of losses. Then I decided it was time to change or get hammered and the rest is history. Now I take the longer term view but I also jump in and out with short term trades (based on experience) that have proven to be highly lucrative.

[bpcw]

Accept when you normally play poker the rules don't keep changing as you're playing!

In the past - I gave up playing poker regularly a few years ago - I've played poker at several casinos where at some point, some players were caught cheating (e.g. hiding large denomination chips in their pockets which they would try to sneak unto the table when they picked up aces, that sorta thing).

I still won consistently, on balance.

To me, it's the same with markets ... the successful WISC investor-trader does her best to factor the "cheatin'" by the Fed, other central banks, Goldman Sachs, et. al. into her analyses.

The markets are always "right" - eventually.

Not suggesting we can't make money, it's that the rules of the game in terms of TA etc. could easily change because they won't work as they used to but MP won't change and that will be our best tool going forward. That's my understanding of what Sol is saying in a simplified form.

[SOL]

It's time for the patient Ninja to rule. If one follows the basic tenets of MP, there is absolutely no way to lose in the long run. In between, we are going to experience huge bouts of volatility and this is thanks to the huge amount of money central bankers are creating.

A simple strategy would be to use monthly and weekly charts combined with sentiment data to open positions in the best companies out there, AI for example will dominate the scene for years to come.

Without Patience and Discipline MP is just another fad. One needs to combine all three elements to succeed in the long term

in the meantime listen to these beats if you like rock and heavy metal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrxcDD7EzGc

[Yodean]

in the meantime listen to these beats if you like rock and heavy metal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrxcDD7EzGc

I listened to that clip for about 6.66 minutes and for some unfathomable reason, suddenly developed an urge to run out and strangle the neighbor's cat.

I took a cold shower instead.