Interim Update Dec 15th 2021

[jlhooter]

Master Little Yoda
Thanks for the lesson. Very helpful. I always forget about the wealth of information the internets have to offer, but yeah be careful about the old ways dont carry over to the new ways.

[Yodean]

Another factor to consider is "tax loss selling," which is happening as we speak. A lot of investors are selling the same assets - at the same time - either to take profits because they expect the Slaughter of '22, or to decrease taxes on realized capital gains from selling other profitable positions.

Good stocks that go down for no particular technical, sentimental, or fundamental reasons right around now often bounce back quite strongly in January - this may account to some degree for the aforementioned "January effect."

[Budge]

Another factor to consider is "tax loss selling," which is happening as we speak. A lot of investors are selling the same assets - at the same time - either to take profits because they expect the Slaughter of '22, or to decrease taxes on realized capital gains from selling other profitable positions.

Good stocks that go down for no particular technical, sentimental, or fundamental reasons right around now often bounce back quite strongly in January - this may account to some degree for the aforementioned "January effect."

The January effect causes tax loss selling to occur in November - the 30-day rule. But then it works back earlier and earlier as the big boys try to beat the rush.

[bpcw]

This weeks sentiment data, of which we have tabulated 90% indicates that uncertainty and fear are ruling the roost. So the odds favour a strong rally into next year. However, this rally is not going to be your typical Santa rally, it's going to zig and zag and maybe the January effect will be stronger than the Santa rally. However, for the market to pull back significantly bullish emotion has to soar and right now bullish readings stand at 22, Bearish at 40 and neutral at 38.

The anxiety gauge is still in the panic zone and the GP index appears poised to put in another new high.

Bulls 22
Bears 40
Neutral 38

Been thinking of a strategy based on the way you think the market is going to operate up until the correction phase next year.

Use my spread betting account to trade the Nasdaq which is already showing signs of a zig zag period. Use one lot to gain on the bullish overall trend which I will keep until sentiment gets too bullish probably some time in 1st quarter 2022, and 2 or 3 lots to buy as it goes down, selling as it goes up (zig zag). If we don't get much down moves and it actually goes up more smoothly I'll still gain on the uptrend from my first lot. Of course setting stop losses along the way.

[Centeron631]

Was just listening to Phil on https://www.philstockworld.com/category/moneytalk/
and at the end the moderator asks what should the average trader do to protect themselves for the anxiety that goes along with being traders and his reply was diversify by sector (which we apparently do not do much of here i believe) and mainly Learn to hedge invest some by puts and other contrarian indexes with options or cotrarian Gold (he used Barrick).
Any ideas in this regard would be appreciated as do not want too big a wallup on my long term core again. thks

[Yodean]

Any ideas in this regard would be appreciated as do not want too big a wallup on my long term core again. thks

Tbh, I think a lot of this stuff can't be taught. Not really. Listening to all the podcasts in the world and reading a bunch of articles about how to invest or hedge won't help you, _past a certain point_.

To use a martial arts analogy, you can perfect all the fancy techniques during practice in a dojo, but on the streets, one hard kick to the teeth and some blood on your face and we'll see how well you really fight.

If investing were easy, everyone would be rich. Investing may be simple, but certainly not easy.

8/9 or more lose for the 1/9 to win - I really don't think this will ever change, no matter what A.I. program you use or financial expert you follow, or top secret CIA "System."

The recent downside volatility is a great opportunity to be really honest with the WIM or MIM (Woman or Man in the Mirror) when it comes to your risk tolerance.

It's normal to not feel great when your portfolio is down, but if you feel really bad, then you've invested too much, for your level of risk tolerance. Simple as that.

Either change your level of exposure to certain asset classes or completely change your emotional nature when it comes to how you view the markets. The latter is difficult for most to do, so realistically, the former is a better option for the average retail investor.

If you can't take the heat, don't play with fire. Especially Hellfire ...

The unpleasant reality is that everyone and her stepmother feel like geniuses in a bull market, but it's really only when the markets crash a bit that the true calibre of the investor is revealed - luck conceals what adversity reveals.

The Slaughter of '22 will be interesting to watch - the time of Testing will soon be upon us.

I expect the majority will be found wanting.

Most would probably be best served by putting 60% to 80% of her portfolio into a "Bulletproof Fund" (BPF) consisting of 1/3rd USD, 1/3rd XOUT, and 1/3rd GLD, rebalancing monthly or quarterly.

With the remaining 20% to 40% of your portfolio, you may pretend you are a badass ninja investor and play with the TIT's various recommendations, as well as cryptos, options, private equity, Zillow, etc.

It is what it is.

[Tobeornot]

Yodean is 100% correct. Investors feel great and think they can do anything when things play out as planned, then they call themselves trend players. However, when the going gets a bit tough 90% of them flake out and then the true person is revealed. I have been with TI on and off for I think over 10 years

In 2006 when Sol was stating the best thing to was to sell your home and rent. I thought it was rubbish and resisted because the housing market looked fantastic. I even followed his suggestions to buy a home in Orlando, which tacked on 100%. I should have sold but I held on, it took me years to recoup.

In 2015 when Trump won, I thought the markets would crash not because I thought Trump was good or bad but because I assumed you that the markets would react negatively as the media was pushing. Instead of jumping as SOL advocated I shorted and lost over 40K over a very short space of time.

I found that the TI works over the long way, there are many more examples where I made stupid mistakes but they should suffice. On the Bright Side, I sold over half of Gold positions and stocks as recommended by TI and walked with almost 1000% gains in Silver and massive gains on Gold and Palladium bullion. Looking at the history of TI's methodology it works, as they don't trade based on whims.

[AstuteShift]

Took me a year to get into TI methodology, 2020 was the breakthrough year for me once I started to view market panic as opportunities.

If it feels terrible or you want to throw up, then it’s usually the right call. Taking the opposite stance of the masses is not east at first since you been programmed to accept conventional wisdom as the gospel but once you just take that first move you never look back. Ever

[Centeron631]

As to my core portfolio i was referring to protecting or making money on downfall of positions in stocks that are long term holds prior to coming to TIT and quite locked in because of tax implications in a non-registered account made up of long term stocks continuing for mass majority to be performing well and also low volatility etf's. I should have been more clear. I have weathered several melt downs as many decades of investing as a senior senior so i will not panic so i was looking around and as a result thinking of some bear spread put options plays of some sort. thks

[SOL]

As to my core portfolio i was referring to protecting or making money on downfall of positions in stocks that are long term holds prior to coming to TIT and quite locked in because of tax implications in a non-registered account made up of long term stocks continuing for mass majority to be performing well and also low volatility etf's. I should have been more clear. I have weathered several melt downs as many decades of investing as a senior senior so i will not panic so i was looking around and as a result thinking of some bear spread put options plays of some sort. thks

Sometime In January or early Feb it could make sense to buy some puts, but the main intent should be a hedge or insurance with the bonus of locking in hefty gains. Also if you plan on holding for the long run, then selling a bunch of covered calls on your longs might be something to look into

[bpcw]

Yodean is indeed spot on IMHO.

Tobeornot, very refreshing honest reply from you, enjoyed reading and newbies can learn from this.

I managed to destroy my portfolio before throwing in the towel in my previous way of trading and learning the TI way.

My first breakthrough year was 2018, when the covid correction of 2020 came I was salivating and made a lot on QQQ (3 x geared Nasdaq) by gradually buying lots as the markets went down, also have made on commodities.

I have found the current situation more difficult as I went far more into the individual reccomended stocks with many tanking whilst the indexes have remained nearer their highs but I'm learning to adjust to the manipulators change in tactics by TI guidance. Going for walks with the dog and just distracting myself has really helped, first to get perspective and release any anxiety that has built up.

[harryg]

There are some good answers here.

There are many ways of "hedging" risk but they all come with extra complications and costs and are essentially new bets of their own. For example, if you short index futures to hedge against your long portfolio, you are now short futures which is, however you wish to justify it, an additional risk.

I have nothing groundbreaking to add, other than that all investment is speculation, and speculation is the management of risk, at least that's the way I see it. The best and most efficient way by far to reduce risk is to reduce position size (bet less). Take some money out completely.

[gnosis12]

Overall my portfolio is still doing well, when taking the long term perspective. I expect volatility to play a major role but if one jumps in and out without a plan, one will lose. I know from experience. I will stick with the TI methodology as they focus on discipline and patience. I am using their strategy to trade other markets and stocks and I am doing much better than my old way of trading which was mostly based whim style trading

[Centeron631]

As to my core portfolio i was referring to protecting or making money on downfall of positions in stocks that are long term holds prior to coming to TIT and quite locked in because of tax implications in a non-registered account made up of long term stocks continuing for mass majority to be performing well and also low volatility etf's. I should have been more clear. I have weathered several melt downs as many decades of investing as a senior senior so i will not panic so i was looking around and as a result thinking of some bear spread put options plays of some sort. thks

Sometime In January or early Feb it could make sense to buy some puts, but the main intent should be a hedge or insurance with the bonus of locking in hefty gains. Also if you plan on holding for the long run, then selling a bunch of covered calls on your longs might be something to look into

Thks Sol. Was just wondering if it is more effective (cost or risk/reward wise) to use puts vs inverse etf's, and in regard to on individual holdings vs. general indexes ? Also when the time comes will TI be able to determine if it is going to be a smaller correction vs. the big bomb and if that will affect the strategy. Will Ti be puting out some short plays at the appropriate time?

[Cinnamon]

U.S. stocks are coming to the end of 2021 on a high note, despite rising coronavirus cases, with the benchmark S&P 500 index gaining 1.4% on Monday while the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.6%. Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF, meanwhile, declined 1.7% -- further cementing the fund’s underperformance this year.

The famous technology fund is now down 22% in 2021, heading for its worst annual performance since its inception in 2014. That comes in stark contrast to last year’s rally of almost 150%.

“Everyone is talking about the Santa rally powering markets, but meanwhile ARKK is still going lower,” Mirabaud sales trader Mark Taylor said. “Cathie Wood remains firmly in the Grinch camp, and the outflows are starting to show.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-w ... 25780.html

I have been looking at Cathie's investment style. She seems to be a momentum player with no regard for fundamentals or technical analysis. A deadly recipe in my opinion. A lot of times when she was buying the stocks were trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the monthly charts. Looks like the death of the experts trend has started