try this with me

[hooligan]

follow along for something potentially interesting

chance of success = how likely the play is to make money. hard to quantify, yet we do make these judgements regularly.

risk / reward = possible loss, or gain, based on technical analysis.

we SHOULDN'T CALL "possible loss" the "risk" because that confuses it with "chance of success" !!!! maybe it should be called "penalty / reward"

when we talk about a "risky" play, what are we talking about ?
- higher possible loss???
- or lower chance of success ???
- matters !!

there are only three main parameters to a play
- possible loss
- possible gain
- chance of success

PLAY QUALITY HIERARCHY:
( bad attributes are marked with * )

A tier plays (3/3):
- high possible gain, low possible loss, high chance of success

B tier plays (2/3):
- high possible gain, low possible loss, low chance success*
- low possible gain*, low possible loss, high chance success
- high possible gain, high possible loss*, high chance success

C tier plays (1/3):
- low possible gain*, high possible loss*, high chance success
-high possible gain , high possible loss*, low chance success*
-low possible gain*, low possible loss, low chance success*

D tier plays (0/3):
- low possible gain*, high possible loss*, low chance of success*

[hooligan]

WHAT I'M WONDERING LATELY:

do the super-rich just seek out high chance of success, ignore the rest, and use debt to jack up their gains?

(as in Really high, Assured.)

[Budge]

WHAT I'M WONDERING LATELY:

do the super-rich just seek out high chance of success, ignore the rest, and use debt to jack up their gains?

(as in Really high, Assured.)

They set up the situations where they have 100% chance of winning.

[SOL]

WHAT I'M WONDERING LATELY:

do the super-rich just seek out high chance of success, ignore the rest, and use debt to jack up their gains?

(as in Really high, Assured.)

Mere Mortals like you and I have to fight for our morsels, The top players just take what they want by setting up the scene for 100% success. They are almost on par with the Fed with their ability to build immense amounts of money. kind of creating it from thin air as they control the narrative and the outcome is almost always (100%) assured.

[harryg]

when we talk about a "risky" play, what are we talking about ?
- higher possible loss???
- or lower chance of success ???
- matters !!

there are only three main parameters to a play
- possible loss
- possible gain
- chance of success

When most people talk about a 'risky' play, they are referring to the volatility of the underlying. So small biotech stock Z is more 'risky' than large-cap stock A. To use words from your example, it wouldn't necessarily be a higher possible loss but a bigger likelihood of loss.

The true risk of a position is the amount of money you will lose when it goes wrong. That risk is quantifiable, and therefore can be controlled, at least to a certain extent. It is a function of the distance to your stop and the amount (%) of capital speculated.

The possible gain is difficult to calculate (unless selling options or something like that), as is the chance of success. These last two are estimates based on the trading methodology.

Sometimes the risk/reward appears to be so much in your favour, (for example after a crash), that you have a massive opportunity. It is evident that those with more spare money can take better advantage of such opportunities.

[hooligan]

Mere Mortals like you and I have to fight for our morsels, The top players just take what they want by setting up the scene for 100% success. They are almost on par with the Fed with their ability to build immense amounts of money. kind of creating it from thin air as they control the narrative and the outcome is almost always (100%) assured.

i'm continually learning about this. appreciate the leads at TI , lvl 4 material .... upper eschelons of control ... havent taken the full dive but gonna eventually

Sol when you say a play is risky in the newsletters, which do you mean? lower chance of success? or higher potential loss? or a mix of both?

[hooligan]

When most people talk about a 'risky' play, they are referring to the volatility of the underlying. So small biotech stock Z is more 'risky' than large-cap stock A. To use words from your example, it wouldn't necessarily be a higher possible loss but a bigger likelihood of loss.

The true risk of a position is the amount of money you will lose when it goes wrong. That risk is quantifiable, and therefore can be controlled, at least to a certain extent. It is a function of the distance to your stop and the amount (%) of capital speculated.

The possible gain is difficult to calculate (unless selling options or something like that), as is the chance of success. These last two are estimates based on the trading methodology.

Sometimes the risk/reward appears to be so much in your favour, (for example after a crash), that you have a massive opportunity. It is evident that those with more spare money can take better advantage of such opportunities.

thumbs up.

to add: volatility, price moving up and down, can be in some cases reliable and predictable, and if so, provide an easy, high chance of success. so again the terms have to be clear.

a market crash, to me, always seems to be a very high chance of success buy. this is because the markets are the main vehicle by which the rich rob the masses. so society at large will never let them stay down too long.

[SOL]

Sol when you say a play is risky in the newsletters, which do you mean? lower chance of success? or higher potential loss? or a mix of both?

The potential for large gains but it comes with a price. You could make a lot or lose a lot more than you would on a regular trade.

[AstuteShift]

No market is safe or guaranteed.

You always want to be disciplined since it’s dangerous if you disobey your rules, greed has a nasty habit of destroying your hard work.

All it takes is one bad trade that snowballs and you lose everything. This is happened to be 3x before joining TI with options. There is always profit to be made and also you live for another day.

[hooligan]

The potential for large gains but it comes with a price. You could make a lot or lose a lot more than you would on a regular trade.

Got it. So magnified gain and loss. Which is "penalty/reward" and not "chance of success"

Would you say that most of the plays you post have a similar expected chance of success, regardless of the posted risk level?

[SOL]

The potential for large gains but it comes with a price. You could make a lot or lose a lot more than you would on a regular trade.

Got it. So magnified gain and loss. Which is "penalty/reward" and not "chance of success"

Would you say that most of the plays you post have a similar expected chance of success, regardless of the posted risk level?

Aside from the rough path we and everyone we know is experiencing, roughly 84% of the trades trended higher. One year we had a 100% win ratio but I was the first to call that an anomaly as in pure luck.

We keep in touch with a group of elite traders that have mastered the art of patience and discipline. I use them as a source of psychological data, they provide could a set of very important variables, but even these patient chaps have been going through a rough phase, which means Glory days lie ahead (when viewed through the long term lens of time).

Got it. So magnified gain and loss. Which is "penalty/reward" and not "chance of success"

Everything comes down to perception, and your perceptions are what drive your brain and its operating system. Most individuals are not aware that they can upgrade their OS, so instead of improving over time, they decay.

If you believe the above statement to be true then there is no reason why it can't come to pass. We view the markets as a game, for that is the only way to remain sane and analyse it properly. There will be times of huge profits, then times of rather intense acid and then times that are just downright boring as in nothing happening. If you take any of these phases seriously then its almost impossible to win over the long run, more importantly, even if you do manage to win, you will have downgraded your OS to such a level that all the money in the world would not be worth it to the original version of you. In other words, extreme stress and anxiety mean you are a poor man even if you have a very large bank account with a plethora of zeros.

[MarkD]

My account soared last year through February. Lots of churn since then, and down as much as 10%.

I am retired folks, and a ten percent correction is nothing. After a 50% year, c'est la vie...now where is the Chateau la Fitte?

[hooligan]

There will be times of huge profits, then times of rather intense acid and then times that are just downright boring as in nothing happening. If you take any of these phases seriously then its almost impossible to win over the long run, more importantly, even if you do manage to win, you will have downgraded your OS to such a level that all the money in the world would not be worth it to the original version of you. In other words, extreme stress and anxiety mean you are a poor man even if you have a very large bank account with a plethora of zeros.

bump

[Yodean]

bump

@WaterNinja: wise "bump," but just keep in mind it's just as easy to be a miserable poor man as a miserable rich man. The scenery and accompanying NFTs in the KYM (Kali Yuga Metaverse) are a tad nicer for the latter ...