anyone elses portfolio super down?

[hooligan]

checkin in

[sc2021]

Yes

I have Coupa in my portfolio...Earnings after hours today...let's see if it tanks like Docusign

[DrSven]

Yes, my TI portfolio went down throughout November. Took the chance for some tax loss selling last week. Hesitating to buy at the moment. Not sure if it is just increased volatility, a tiny correction or the start of the major correction which TI is in Q1 of 2022.

[Yodean]

It is darkest before the Light. It's coming - hang in there.

My overall portfolio was up 7-figures USD in 2021, until peaking around mid-November ... since then, my gains have decreased by 50%, so now it's in the 6-figures.

Sentiment-wise, to me it feels a bit like in March 2020 when Dow was trading around 21k (it eventually spike-bottomed just below 19k).

I heard Santa got a little bit better from the Omacron virus, but now one of his reindeers (Rudolf, I believe) also tested positive, so the 'Xmas rally will be a bit delayed.

[AstuteShift]

Enjoy the process, portfolios go up and down but capital gets increased at the end of the day

That is all that matters in the end. Relax and enjoy the ride since it will get more crazy and insane as the money supply increases

My take is, let go, enjoy the process. Money will come but health is priceless and there are other things that are more beautiful to focus on

[Triplethought]

checkin in

Yes mine is super down and has not exceeded a peak value I saw in March. In my case I made the mistake of not only increasing my lot size when I shouldn't have, but unfortunately increased it in the Trend Blazer portfolio where I foolishly doubled down on a few option plays that didn't work out yet (and probably won't). As SOL says pigs get slaughtered and I really learned my lesson on options to go lightly. I may eschew options (except for selling some puts) next year.

I also have been slaughtered by quadrupling down on Zillow (A play of my own recognizance). What I learned there is not only be careful about doubling down (catching a falling knife), but never ever jump into a stock when a friend says it has "killed it" for them (because it has already run up). Why I couldn't see that I don't know.

So basically I've made a bad year even worse. Having said that I'm hoping my realized profits will be at least break even for the year. but it's true that I think SOL's picks have also been less stellar than last year. All we can do is hang on and hope they come back and all try to learn together.

[Triplethought]

Yes

I have Coupa in my portfolio...Earnings after hours today...let's see if it tanks like Docusign

Not looking great. I have 5 lots

[Yodean]

... but never ever jump into a stock when a friend says it has "killed it" for them (because it has already run up).

In the past, I have tended to make the same basic investing mistakes over and over again in a variety of different, extremely creative ways before learning the lessons behind them to the level of "unconscious competence."

One notable exception to this was that I learned really early on, and quickly, never to take investing advice from family or friends.

8/9 times, the advice is just plain terrible ... the other 1/9 times, it's mediocre, at best.

They are terrific as contrarian indicators. As an example, quite a few of my friends and colleagues have been buying real estate, both residential and recreational, the last few years, taking on significant, additional debt ... there are no certainties in investing, of course, but from this sentiment perspective I would guess there will be some sort of significant correction in "can't go down" real estate in the next few years.

A computer engineering friend of mine who is consistently on the wrong side of trades, but believes he is smarter than most despite a terrible investing record to date, has been complaining about how boring and useless companies like IBM and INTC are ...

Lol, I told him IBM and INTC are two of my largest HODL core holdings.

I also told him his "computer engineering" degree is pretty worthless when it comes to investing.

After he gets margin-called (this already happened to him a few times in his first year of investing-trading) a few more times and loses a few 100k more, he might start listening to me.

Stubborn fellow.

[Eric]

... but never ever jump into a stock when a friend says it has "killed it" for them (because it has already run up).

...from this sentiment perspective I would guess there will be some sort of significant correction in "can't go down" real estate in the next few years.

My dad is king of buy-high, sell-low real estate transactions. I think he bought his former home around Y2K for $400,000. He lived there around 18 years and "had to" spend $70,000 on renovations to sell it. He eventually sold it for $470,000 in a down market almost two decades later.

I also believe he bought his first lake home for around $275,000 and sold it several (7 or 8) years later for around $215,000. Selling the first lake home took several price reductions and several months.

I'd estimate he probably has about $3M in real estate (all paid for-no mortgages).

[nicolas]

Yes. Well, not super down, but underperforming. If you focus on the short term.

This morning, my TI portfolio (Market Update + AI) is flat YTD (+1% or so), as the unrealized P/L is offsetting otherwise healthy realized gains. So, not terrific considering SPY is up +23% YTD.

But don't forget to look at the bigger picture! First, the year isn't over yet. And more importantly, 2021 follows a strong year of overperformance for TI. In 2020, my TI portfolio was up +55% (vs SPY +18%.) I'm sure other subscribers enjoyed even bigger returns (I haven't invested in option plays for instance.)

So, if you're new to TI, stay patient, better opportunities are coming in 2022.

Another idea to consider is to look at sectors that are underweight in the TI PF. But only if you have a good investing thesis or trading plan for those. Commodities (and taking profits regularly on cryptos) were very rewarding for me this year.

Note: I'm calculating my returns based on my capital invested, not taking cash into account. And I'm following the picks from the "Plunder" separately, on which btw I'm up +52% this year, so it's not all bad

[Yodean]

Another consideration is to have a good, hard look at your emotions when your portfolio is down big. Of course, this never feels great, but if you feel really, really terrible, then one of the easiest steps to take is to reduce your lot sizes and market exposure in the future.

Lol, you don't necessarily want to sell at that moment since if you feel really horrible, the markets are likely near a bottom of some sort.

It's not really a loss if you've learned something important about yourself when it comes to investing.

Noob investors always tend to think they can handle high volatility - and they can, when their portfolios are going up - but it's during the crashes that their true "risk tolerance" is revealed - by how bad they feel during those times.

What good luck conceals, adversity reveals.

[AstuteShift]

Best way also is to view the markets as a video game

The astute/shadow players vs emotional and brain dead

It’s going to be a series of battles, losses are to be expected. However the war carries on until fiat is eliminated or when you’re dead.

Makes no sense honestly to get emotional in this game, that’s the fastest way to lose. Be neutral, neither greedy or fearful. Be decisive but not all in always, only when the risk is low and the reward level is high.

If you feel emotional, take a break until you have a clear mind.

[harryg]

There's nothing wrong with emotions, might as well be dead otherwise.

The trick in my view is to try not to let them dictate your market decisions.

You can still be aware of them - for example, I have bought some cryptos recently purely because of 'FOMO'. I know it, accept it, and have position-sized accordingly. If works out it will be exciting and that's part of the fun. If it doesn't work out it serves me right, but it won't be catastrophic.

In my experience, good investors/speculators always concentrate on the downside, ie: risk management.

[AstuteShift]

There's nothing wrong with emotions, might as well be dead otherwise.

The trick in my view is to try not to let them dictate your market decisions.

You can still be aware of them - for example, I have bought some cryptos recently purely because of 'FOMO'. I know it, accept it, and have position-sized accordingly. If works out it will be exciting and that's part of the fun. If it doesn't work out it serves me right, but it won't be catastrophic.

In my experience, good investors/speculators always concentrate on the downside, ie: risk management.

The best speculators I know always focus risk management. Also extreme control of emotions

You may think a little fomo here and there is ok but in reality, it’s like the start of a disease that needs to be quickly taken care of

Markets will take everything you have and more, no mercy. You must also have the same mentality with your emotions

[Yodean]

I also have been slaughtered by quadrupling down on Zillow (A play of my own recognizance).

@YoungAnakin:

A financial advisor whom quite a few of us here also follow just publicly declared that he thinks Zillow may hit $25 in 2022 at some point ... lol, and I thought I was bearish on Zillow.