Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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SOL
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Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

Post by SOL »

Bullish sentiment is likely to come in the 23 to 24 ranges, a massive drop from a few weeks ago. While we expect a lot of volatility, the markets should continue to trend higher barring a black swan event until Jan 2022. At that point, we should get the first signs of a multi-month top. Once those signals are confirmed, the markets will tread water while many stocks shed weight. The ensuing correction should occur in waves that could last well until the 3rd quarter of next year. The next correction is going to be anything but normal. While history is said to repeat the better saying is that it rhymes. Btw Bearish sentiment is on course to set a new 1 year high. We have tabulated 70% of the data so far.

The next correction is going to be different, many false signals will be generated that it's time to buy and the crowd that has no experience with investing will jump in. Many will lose most of the gains they locked and this will probably lead to an even bigger correction in the 2nd or 3rd quarter.

We are most likely going to change our investing style. If you don't adapt you die. So for the first time, we might have a holder position where we deploy 1/4 and hold it, after an initial massive selling wave. Then we will deploy 1/4, the rest of the funds will be used to jump in and out.


The best investment is health. if one has good health, one does not even need 1 million USD to retire well. The push for bigger retirement nest eggs is based on the fact that most retirees will get sick and need to allocate significant funds for medical treatments. Obesity is one of the things every Tactical Investor should avoid. Being obese opens you up to a plethora of life-threatening diseases


Random data on the dangers of being obese

As overweight and obesity increase, so does risk of dying prematurely


Boston, MA — Being overweight or obese is associated with a higher risk of dying prematurely than being normal weight—and the risk increases with additional pounds, according to a large international collaborative study led by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the University of Cambridge, UK. The findings contradict recent reports that suggest a survival advantage to being overweight—the so-called “obesity paradox.”

The study was published online on July 13, 2016 in The Lancet.

The deleterious effects of excess body weight on chronic disease have been well documented. Recent studies suggesting otherwise have resulted in confusion among the public about what is a healthy weight. According to the authors of the new study, those prior studies had serious methodological limitations. One common problem is called reverse causation, in which a low body weight is the result of underlying or preclinical illness rather than the cause. Another problem is confounding by smoking because smokers tend to weigh less than nonsmokers but have much higher mortality rates.

“To obtain an unbiased relationship between BMI and mortality, it is essential to analyze individuals who never smoked and had no existing chronic diseases at the start of the study,” said Frank Hu, professor of nutrition and epidemiology at Harvard Chan School and a co-leader of the collaboration. Hu stressed that doctors should continue to counsel patients regarding the deleterious effects of excess body weight, which include a higher risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press ... lity-risk/

Morbidity and mortality associated with obesity
Obesity and its repercussions constitute an important source of morbidity, impaired quality of life and its complications can have a major bearing on life expectancy. The present article summarizes the most important co-morbidities of obesity and their prevalence. Furthermore, it describes classification and grading systems that can be used to assess the individual and combined impact of co-morbid conditions on mortality risk. The literature was screened for assessment tools that can be deployed in the quantification of morbidity and mortality risk in individual patients. Thirteen specific domains have been identified that account for morbidity and mortality in obesity. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer account for the greatest mortality risk associated with obesity. The King’s Criteria and Edmonton Obesity Staging System (EOSS) were identified as useful tools for the detection and monitoring of individual patient mortality risk in obesity care. The stark facts on the complications of obesity should be capitalized on to improve patient management and knowledge and referred to in the wider dissemination of public health messages aimed at improving primary prevention.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5401682/

Health Risks of Overweight & Obesity

High blood pressure

Type 2 diabetes

Heart disease
Heart disease is a term used to describe several problems that may affect your heart. If you have heart disease, you may have a heart attack, heart failure, sudden cardiac death, angina NIH external link, or an abnormal heart rhythm. High blood pressure, abnormal levels of blood fats, and high blood glucose levels may raise your risk for heart disease. Blood fats, also called blood lipids, include HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides.

Losing 5 to 10 percent of your weight may lower your risk factors for developing heart disease. If you weigh 200 pounds, this means losing as little as 10 pounds. Weight loss may improve blood pressure, cholesterol levels, and blood flow.

Stroke
Stroke is a condition in which the blood supply to your brain is suddenly cut off, caused by a blockage or the bursting of a blood vessel in your brain or neck. A stroke can damage brain tissue and make you unable to speak or move parts of your body. High blood pressure is the leading cause of strokes.

Sleep apnea
Sleep apnea is a common disorder in which you do not breathe regularly while sleeping. You may stop breathing altogether for short periods of time. Untreated sleep apnea may raise your risk of other health problems, such as type 2 diabetes and heart disease.

Metabolic syndrome
Metabolic syndrome is a group of conditions that put you at risk for heart disease, diabetes, and stroke. These conditions are

high blood pressure
high blood glucose levels
high triglyceride levels in your blood
low levels of HDL cholesterol (the “good” cholesterol) in your blood
too much fat around your waist
Fatty liver diseases
Fatty liver diseases are conditions in which fat builds up in your liver. Fatty liver diseases include nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Fatty liver diseases may lead to severe liver damage, cirrhosis, or even liver failure.

Osteoarthritis
Osteoarthritis is a common, long-lasting health problem that causes pain, swelling, and reduced motion in your joints. Being overweight or having obesity may raise your risk of getting osteoarthritis by putting extra pressure on your joints and cartilage.

Gallbladder diseases
Overweight and obesity may raise your risk of getting gallbladder diseases, such as gallstones and cholecystitis. Imbalances in substances that make up bile cause gallstones. Gallstones may form if bile contains too much cholesterol.

Some cancers
Cancer NIH external link is a collection of related diseases. In all types of cancer, some of the body’s cells begin to divide without stopping and spread into surrounding tissues. Overweight and obesity may raise your risk of developing certain types of cancer NIH external link.

Kidney disease
Kidney disease means that your kidneys are damaged and can’t filter blood like they should. Obesity raises the risk of diabetes and high blood pressure, the most common causes of kidney disease. Even if you don’t have diabetes or high blood pressure, obesity itself may promote kidney disease and quicken its progress.

https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-inform ... alth-risks
Obesity is a serious medical condition that can cause complications such as metabolic syndrome, high blood pressure, atherosclerosis, heart disease, diabetes, high blood cholesterol, cancers and sleep disorders. Treatment depends on the cause and severity of your condition and whether you have complications. Treatments include lifestyle changes, such as heart-healthy eating and increased physical activity, and Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved weight-loss medicines. For some people, surgery may be a treatment
option
.

https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health-topics ... nd-obesity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMS3EtZMp9E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NWsLpyuDqs
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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When I was in that cardiology practice, I told patients if you don’t weigh your food and count calories then losing weight does not count. Also a food diary to how you feel with certain foods

Unfortunately this is too extreme for most people but it is extremely effective. You learn about your body and what it is capable.

You are what you eat
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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AstuteShift wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:02 pm When I was in that cardiology practice, I told patients if you don’t weigh your food and count calories then losing weight does not count. Also a food diary to how you feel with certain foods

Unfortunately this is too extreme for most people but it is extremely effective. You learn about your body and what it is capable.

You are what you eat
When you eat healthily, you can eat as much as you want. The key is eating healthy and you won't gain weight, but people don't understand. I lost all my excess weight years ago (being overweight by 5 pounds is not a do or die thing) by simply eliminating crap out of my diet. For example, for 1 week I ate an extra pint of good quality ice cream every day. I did not gain one ounce of weight. I also went on a very high saturated fat diet for several years and did not gain any weight. you are right. you are what you eat. Shit in shit out, You can't change the equation. So if people get rid of the crap by default you will eat less, as you only eat more because the crap one is eating does not contain the nutrients the body needs so it puts you in a hungry mode.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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SOL wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:48 pm {...}
We are most likely going to change our investing style. If you don't adapt you die. So for the first time, we might have a holder position where we deploy 1/4 and hold it, after an initial massive selling wave. Then we will deploy 1/4, the rest of the funds will be used to jump in and out.
Thank you for the update. Just looking at the above para, does this imply that before that you would be looking to be 100% in cash?
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

Post by Ouroboros »

Sol, thanks for the update.
And if not 100% cash, what's to become with multiple red positions in the MU portfolio?
Are we aiming for a short rally prior to the sell-off, or tightening our stops?
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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My personal bias is that one should almost never be 100% in cash. Even during market crashes, some stocks weather the storm quite well, and start to rise well before the general equity indices are "done crashing."

Looks like next year is going to be a "stockpicker's market."

If bullish sentiment rises to euphoric levels and there are other signs suggesting a major top is in place, I increase my cash allocation and reduce the number of small-cap/speculative holdings, as well as apply mental trailing stops to my large profitable positions.

Comes down to how much of the orange you want to squeeze, after most of the juice is gone.

Besides sentiment measures, if and when the Dow tests 39k and the Nasdaq is getting close to 17k or thereabouts, I will probably look to do some of the aforementioned.

I see Dow 36k - 39k as the approximate "Zone of Death," where the bulls will initially be slaughtered. The Killing Fields, a bull trap of sorts ...
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

Post by Ouroboros »

Thanks for the input @Yodean
My plan is also also along these lines.
Let's see how it plays out.
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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Yodean wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:49 am My personal bias is that one should almost never be 100% in cash.
Yep, for me even 25% cash is a lot, that's why I asked what their thinking is.
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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Yodean wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:49 am Comes down to how much of the orange you want to squeeze, after most of the juice is gone.
Reminded me of this oldie, I'll make it quick: Competition in the bar, "Squeeze the Lemon". Anyone who can get juice out of this dried up old lemon wins a prize. People come from far & wide, weightlifters, bodybuilders, all kinds. No one can get any juice out of this old lemon.

One day a small wiry chap with glasses comes in, walks up to the bar and squeezes the lemon one-handed. Six drops come out. Everyone is amazed.

"What do you do for a living?" they ask.




"Tax Inspector".
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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harryg wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:34 am
Yodean wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:49 am My personal bias is that one should almost never be 100% in cash.
Yep, for me even 25% cash is a lot, that's why I asked what their thinking is.
For the record, I always keep more cash on hand than needed even though supposedly I am supposed to know what the markets are doing better than most. The reason is that I will never forget what my Grandfather always stated, Cash is king provided you are patient. Point and case My friend in Turkey just picked up houses that were going for 200K USD roughly 7-9 years ago, for less than 35K each. Why. It is very hard to get a loan and if you can the rates are sky-high.

Our associates in Indonesia and Vietnam are also finding similar deals but on Apartments, as much as 40% of the list price and these are brand new.


Depending on one's discipline and patience a massive opportunity is waiting for the patient and disciplined Tactical Investor. This opportunity is potentially so huge, that one could be down 30 to 40% now and still end up doubling or tripling one's portfolio 15 to 24 months after the next sell-off
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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That's an interesting approach Sol. With considerable amounts of cash on hand one would have to be not only patient but confident that the patience would pay off. It looks as if next year might be one such opportunity.
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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SOL wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:47 am
harryg wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:34 am
Yodean wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:49 am My personal bias is that one should almost never be 100% in cash.
Yep, for me even 25% cash is a lot, that's why I asked what their thinking is.
For the record, I always keep more cash on hand than needed even though supposedly I am supposed to know what the markets are doing better than most. The reason is that I will never forget what my Grandfather always stated, Cash is king provided you are patient. Point and case My friend in Turkey just picked up houses that were going for 200K USD roughly 7-9 years ago, for less than 35K each. Why. It is very hard to get a loan and if you can the rates are sky-high.

Our associates in Indonesia and Vietnam are also finding similar deals but on Apartments, as much as 40% of the list price and these are brand new.


Depending on one's discipline and patience a massive opportunity is waiting for the patient and disciplined Tactical Investor. This opportunity is potentially so huge, that one could be down 30 to 40% now and still end up doubling or tripling one's portfolio 15 to 24 months after the next sell-off
I always had this thought. Sometimes the markets give you gifts and it doesn’t like you when you ignore the gifts

We have penguins now like Ray Dalio saying cash is trash, looks like his business is getting creamed and needs more peasants to buy his crap
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Liquid Stores of Value

Post by Yodean »

harryg wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:03 am That's an interesting approach Sol. With considerable amounts of cash on hand one would have to be not only patient but confident that the patience would pay off. It looks as if next year might be one such opportunity.
It's always good to have some cash for those buying opportunities.

With that said, it depends on how you view "cash" ... strictly speaking, atm, my cash allocation (not including 6+ months living expenses) is < 2%.

However, if I need cash to buy another asset, I just sell a portion of some of my other holdings. E.g. Google, NVDA, cryptos, uranium, etc. Stuff that's up big. You could also get rid of some of your dogs (i.e. tax loss selling), and buy other assets with the cash generated.

In a sense, one may view "stocks" more as liquid stores of value, just like cash.

You may get away with this type of thinking in a primary degree bull market and if you are okay with high volatility, but once sentiment measures reach the euphoric ranges, better to go with the old adage, "Cash is King."

In 2022, I will be increasing my cash allocation significantly.
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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SOL wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:47 am
harryg wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:34 am
Yodean wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:49 am My personal bias is that one should almost never be 100% in cash.
Yep, for me even 25% cash is a lot, that's why I asked what their thinking is.
For the record, I always keep more cash on hand than needed even though supposedly I am supposed to know what the markets are doing better than most. The reason is that I will never forget what my Grandfather always stated, Cash is king provided you are patient. Point and case My friend in Turkey just picked up houses that were going for 200K USD roughly 7-9 years ago, for less than 35K each. Why. It is very hard to get a loan and if you can the rates are sky-high.

Our associates in Indonesia and Vietnam are also finding similar deals but on Apartments, as much as 40% of the list price and these are brand new.


Depending on one's discipline and patience a massive opportunity is waiting for the patient and disciplined Tactical Investor. This opportunity is potentially so huge, that one could be down 30 to 40% now and still end up doubling or tripling one's portfolio 15 to 24 months after the next sell-off
HOLY COW. did you see that you become a Turkish citizen if you buy property worth $250K? I wonder if there are legal problems as with other countries. If you had a trustworthy management company having a rental makes sense. https://www.propertyturkey.com/property ... -programme
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Interim Market Update Dec 2, 2021

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Triplethought wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:04 pm
HOLY COW. did you see that you become a Turkish citizen if you buy property worth $250K? I wonder if there are legal problems as with other countries. If you had a trustworthy management company having a rental makes sense. https://www.propertyturkey.com/property ... -programme
WAIT maybe the drop in Turkey prices is because of this scam and they were inflated to begin with. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/eco ... ted-prices
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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