How to store your cryptos?

[Yodean]

El Salvador plans to build the world's first "Bitcoin City", funded initially by bitcoin-backed bonds, President Nayib Bukele said on Saturday, doubling down on his bet to harness the crypto currency to fuel investment in the Central American country.

El Salvador planned to issue the initial bonds in 2022, Bukele said, suggesting it would be in 60 days time.

Samson Mow, chief strategy officer of blockchain technology provider Blockstream, told the gathering the first 10-year issue, known as the "volcano bond", would be worth $1 billion, backed by bitcoin and carrying a coupon of 6.5%. Half of the sum would go to buying bitcoin on the market, he said. Other bonds would follow.

The bond would be issued on the "liquid network", a bitcoin sidechain network. To facilitate the process, El Salvador's government is working on a securities law, and the first license to operate an exchange would go to Bitfinex, Mow said.

Once 10 such bonds were issued, $5 billion in bitcoin would be taken off the market for several years, Mow said. "And if you get 100 more countries to do these bonds, that's half of bitcoin's market cap right there."

The "game theory" on the bonds gave first issuer El Salvador an advantage, Mow argued, saying: "If bitcoin at the five-year mark reaches $1 million, which I think it will, they will sell bitcoin in two quarters and recoup that $500 million."

*****

I wonder how the BTC game theory will play out ... it's unlikely to go exactly as Nayib says above. After all, when a politician's lips move ...

[SOL]

El Salvador plans to build the world's first "Bitcoin City", funded initially by bitcoin-backed bonds, President Nayib Bukele said on Saturday, doubling down on his bet to harness the crypto currency to fuel investment in the Central American country.

El Salvador planned to issue the initial bonds in 2022, Bukele said, suggesting it would be in 60 days time.

Samson Mow, chief strategy officer of blockchain technology provider Blockstream, told the gathering the first 10-year issue, known as the "volcano bond", would be worth $1 billion, backed by bitcoin and carrying a coupon of 6.5%. Half of the sum would go to buying bitcoin on the market, he said. Other bonds would follow.

The bond would be issued on the "liquid network", a bitcoin sidechain network. To facilitate the process, El Salvador's government is working on a securities law, and the first license to operate an exchange would go to Bitfinex, Mow said.

Once 10 such bonds were issued, $5 billion in bitcoin would be taken off the market for several years, Mow said. "And if you get 100 more countries to do these bonds, that's half of bitcoin's market cap right there."

The "game theory" on the bonds gave first issuer El Salvador an advantage, Mow argued, saying: "If bitcoin at the five-year mark reaches $1 million, which I think it will, they will sell bitcoin in two quarters and recoup that $500 million."

*****

I wonder how the BTC game theory will play out ... it's unlikely to go exactly as Nayib says above. After all, when a politician's lips move ...

The above story is more indicative that a top is close at hand. However, with Bitcoin close at hand can refer to one week or 3 months. What is certain is when this top is in place, the odds of bitcoin shedding over 50% of its gains are relatively high (north of 65%).

Politicians even when honest which is almost an oxymoron is almost always late to the party. Honesty and investment savvy are not the same thing.

Other things that stand out deploying large sums of money to buy Bitcoin at current prices is an indication of head trauma. In other words, following the mass mindset playbook

And building a city next to a volcano, well that sounds quite safe, doesn't it? I mean what could possibly go wrong?

[AstuteShift]

Usually when a futures ETF comes online for an asset, a top is established

The big boys are going to mind fuck the crypto junkies

[Yodean]

Usually after some "positive" BTC-El Salvador news, BTC goes down or sideways for a bit, then goes on a bit of a bull run.

Alritey, looks like the die has been cast ... another stern test for the EBI has arisen, it would appear. Thus far, results have been fairly decent, although I don't follow it as much as I probably should.

Current EBI: 62%buy/38%sell

BTC analytics:

-downside move from 69k to 59k recently liquidated a significant portion of retail margin-leveraged longs;

-downside move from 59k to 56k - 57k: ?signal vs. noise; potential "stop-running" by whales;

-very weak support @ 54k - 56k;

-significant support @ 48k to 52k; will be adding to HODL positions a bit here, if we get here, assuming "Slaughter of '22" hasn't started early;

*****

The teacher will appear when the student is ready. When the student is really ready, the teacher disappears.

*****

[Yodean]

And building a city next to a volcano, well that sounds quite safe, doesn't it? I mean what could possibly go wrong?

Nayib is all-in on this BTC move ... he's already made the history books - the only question now is, for good or ill?

https://youtu.be/seQgisZujc0

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El Salvador has a few geothermal power plants, so harnessing the ESG-compliant energy of volcanoes is nothing new to them.

In a sense, if this high-risk venture should prove successful, Nayib is converting the geothermal energy of El Salvador, through BTC mining, into an extremely valuable "export," in the form of BTC.

His nascent BTC bonds will be redeemed in USD, so should not truly prove a threat to USD hegemony, in the big picture.

The BTC bonds will contain about 50% actual BTC which will be sequestered away in cold storage for a period of years - five, I believe - so should reduce available BTC supply.

The plan is for "BTC City" to become the "Singapore" of Latin America - no income taxes, friendly to entrepreneurs, attracting international capital, etc.

This may yet ignite the beginnings of "BTC Game Theory" on the nation-state level.

Network effects, once started on this level, may be difficult to stop. We shall soon see if DeepState intervenes. Nayib is very vulnerable right now.

Still, very high risk ... regardless of what happens ultimately, I hope Nayib does okay. He's essentially risking his entire political career on this move.

I must admit I admire people who are willing to risk it all on a single throw of the dice ...

[SOL]

I must admit I admire people who are willing to risk it all on a single throw of the dice ...

Win or lose they are losers for they don't have the right mindset to be winners. A winner never gambles. He or she takes calculated bets. If they lose they have the firepower for another day. A gambler is a dreamer hoping his or her dreams come true. 99% they get SH*T.

[harryg]

Current EBI: 62%buy/38%sell

Yodean, I see that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently showing 31 and has been trending down for a month (down from Greed towards Fear). BTC 56k appears to be holding, although I don't see any real support there. How is your EBI doing?
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

[SOL]

Looking at Bitcoin based on the feeling that it's the next best thing to happen since whitebread and so many experts predicting pie in the sky prices, I suspect at best it might spike upwards before blowing up.

Additionally, I don't fully trust that Bitcoin fear greed indicator. I feel that the data is not as robust as it could be, however, it's just a feeling. The risk to reward ratio is not in favour of taking a risk.

On the weekly charts posted below, the MACD's have experienced a bearish crossover. On the monthly charts Bitcoin is trading in the overbought ranges also




Hence at best it has one spurt left in it before it sheds a lot of weight.

[harryg]

Thank you Sol, as Yodean knows I've never managed to get 'hold of' cryptos, although I made a fair bit on the surge a couple of years ago.

I understand that the blockchain is probably here to stay, but I cannot find any sensible way of valuing the 'currencies'. It seems to me to be an entirely sentiment-driven market of extremes.

[AstuteShift]

Thank you Sol, as Yodean knows I've never managed to get 'hold of' cryptos, although I made a fair bit on the surge a couple of years ago.

I understand that the blockchain is probably here to stay, but I cannot find any sensible way of valuing the 'currencies'. It seems to me to be an entirely sentiment-driven market of extremes.

Crypto Junkies are just addicted and tunnel visioned. This is extremely terrible way to invest or trade.

I have a friend that made 4 million off shibu inu yet got too greedy and lost almost all of his gains due to greed.

[Yodean]

I understand that the blockchain is probably here to stay, but I cannot find any sensible way of valuing the 'currencies'. It seems to me to be an entirely sentiment-driven market of extremes.

For those who are interested in cryptos but don't particularly care to open an account on a crypto. exchange - like me - BITW (mostly BTC & ETH, but some of the larger alt. coins are included as well), and NFTZ (proxy for NFTs) may be not completely terrible alternatives:

https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-channe ... -defiance/

Current EBI: 76%buy/24%sell;

For the most part, BTC managed to hold weak support in the 54k - 56k range. At this point, my base case is that BTC is either range-bound in the 52k - 60k range, prior to breaking to ATHs in the next few months, or will simply quickly take out overhead resistance in the 58k - 62k range prior to breaking to ATHs.

Either way, won't be a smooth ride.

I'll reassess based on what happens in the next few weeks. I'm a cautious buyer on dips of BITW, NFTZ, COIN, and HIVE. I have a core HODL position in both GBTC and ETHE.

ETH looks set for a parabolic rise in the next few months, but I don't quite have as good a "feel" for ETH. Regardless, significant support in the 3.9k to 4.1k range - not that this means much for ETH, or alt. coins in general.

The cryptos are a bit of a Wild West, with lots of price manipulation by the whales, so in general, traditional forms of technical analysis do not work too well in this sector, at the current time.

For me personally, the asymmetry is there.

I do agree with Sol that if and when the Slaughter of '22 occurs in Q1/Q2, the cryptos will go down hard as well - but then, so will almost everything else.

In fact, a big drop in BTC will likely occur a few to several weeks before the general equity indices tank.

A minor example of this: BTC recently dropped from about 69k to 53k, right before the bloodletting this past week in the general indices. I don't expect this pattern to hold forever, but it's something to consider.

[symbios]

Thank you Sol, as Yodean knows I've never managed to get 'hold of' cryptos, although I made a fair bit on the surge a couple of years ago.

I understand that the blockchain is probably here to stay, but I cannot find any sensible way of valuing the 'currencies'. It seems to me to be an entirely sentiment-driven market of extremes.

Crypto Junkies are just addicted and tunnel visioned. This is extremely terrible way to invest or trade.

I have a friend that made 4 million off shibu inu yet got too greedy and lost almost all of his gains due to greed.

Absolutely right. I just deep dived into discord crypto groups in the past 2 weeks and I actually paid to be in one run by a young 20ish man who claims that he makes a million dollars a month from crypto. The group had 500+ members. Wow.. I couldn’t believe what I was staring at. They were rushing into Ponzi schemes knowingly! Their reasoning is they are the early adopters, they will get paid and run away before it collapses.. I see unrestrained greed and senseless fomoing.. after 3 days, I requested for a refund.. I have seen enough. I think I need to cut myself off crypto for a week or 2..

[Yodean]

I have seen enough. I think I need to cut myself off crypto for a week or 2..

This may be considered an application of a very cool TIT teaching: when a bull in a particular sector is ready to throw in the towel, some sort of bottom is likely in or very close, at least for the time being, in that sector. Works well in the precious metals sector too, I might add.

Current EBI: 81%buy/19%sell; fwiw, EBI hasn't been this high as far as buy signals go, since mid-June or so (BTC was in the low 30s, besides a quick spike to the 28k - 29k range, around that time); of course, this doesn't mean it can't go higher and higher as BTC prices drop even more.

We'll see ...

I'll be adding cautiously to my crypto. holdings tomorrow. May have to sell some Google to do so, or even some uranium assets, lol.

Very strong support for BTC in the 38k - 42k range. ETH has withstood the weekend bloodletting fairly well.

Lots of price manipulation by crypto. whales on weekends (low volume periods). Let's see how the institutions respond tomorrow ...

[SOL]

Since so many are interested in Bitcoin here is what we see. The risk to reward is completely against going long Bitcoin. Having said that, for those willing to take the risk, this is what we see

It would be very hard for Bitcoin to trade to new highs. The more I look at the data used to determine Fear in the crypto market, the more I feel that data is manipulated. Those readings and what the current crack heads in Bitcoin are doing don't rhyme. The indicator states fear is running high, but all our analysis it indicates that the bitcoin crowd is as bullish as ever. So either they are pulling that data out of their arses or they are just manipulating it.

For bitcoin to trade to new highs GBTC has to close above 60 on a monthly basis. If it fails to do that every rally is going to fail and a series of failed rallies would trigger a move to the 20 ranges (GBTC that is).

The monthly chart of GBTC




The weekly chart of GBTC




In both time frames, the MACD's have experienced a bearish crossover. When this happens 9 out of 10 times the market treads water before breaking down. 10% of the time it rallies to new highs and the ensuing fall out is 2X stronger.

[AstuteShift]

Since so many are interested in Bitcoin here is what we see. The risk to reward is completely against going long Bitcoin. Having said that, for those willing to take the risk, this is what we see

It would be very hard for Bitcoin to trade to new highs. The more I look at the data used to determine Fear in the crypto market, the more I feel that data is manipulated. Those readings and what the current crack heads in Bitcoin are doing don't rhyme. The indicator states fear is running high, but all our analysis it indicates that the bitcoin crowd is as bullish as ever. So either they are pulling that data out of their arses or they are just manipulating it.

For bitcoin to trade to new highs GBTC has to close above 60 on a monthly basis. If it fails to do that every rally is going to fail and a series of failed rallies would trigger a move to the 20 ranges (GBTC that is).

The monthly chart of GBTC




The weekly chart of GBTC




In both time frames, the MACD's have experienced a bearish crossover. When this happens 9 out of 10 times the market treads water before breaking down. 10% of the time it rallies to new highs and the ensuing fall out is 2X stronger.

Thanks Sol

With the addition of BITO, buying puts on bitcoin is very easy now.

Hard to ignore weekly and monthly bearish crossovers, definitely a good risk to reward ratio for the bears