have there ever been crashes that don't crescendo?

[hooligan]

given that we're on the frontier of time
and humanity is doing new things

is there any chance that a market crash
might not look how we think it will
might not give the signals we look for? might not act like history?

[stefk]

As everybody knows, fear and greed are the two motors of the stock market. These two universal sentiments are unchanged since the beginning of the civilization, and wil stay unchanged in the future, no matter the new technologies.

[AstuteShift]

As long as fiat exists then boom and bust cycles will continue long after we are dead

Fiat is the tool to unleash those negative emotions of greed and fear and keep the masses forever as pawns unfortunately

[SOL]

given that we're on the frontier of time
and humanity is doing new things

is there any chance that a market crash
might not look how we think it will
might not give the signals we look for? might not act like history?

It is happening as we speak. The COVID crash was manually triggered. There was no active trigger for it based on regular sentiment indicators, etc. However, because there was no normal trigger we focussed on the opportunity while 99% of the populace focussed on the disaster.

The next example is the crash experts were predicting in September and lo and behold, the markets hardly let out any steam. One will have to keep modifying all the tools they use if one wants to stay on the right side of the market.

The easier alternative though it requires nerves of steel, is to view every crash as a buying opportunity until the trend turns negative

[hooligan]

thank u guys

second concern:

where would you put money you currently can't invest . . . . in order to resist inflation

inflation-resistant securities or commodities ....

gold . . . bonds . . . crypto . . . etc

curious on the TI communities favorites here

[SOL]

thank u guys

second concern:

where would you put money you currently can't invest . . . . in order to resist inflation

inflation-resistant securities or commodities ....

gold . . . bonds . . . crypto . . . etc

curious on the TI communities favorites here

I will let others answer that question for you, but my two cents is if you focus on the trend you won't need to ask that question. Following the Trend generates returns several magnitudes higher than inflation.

You once asked if there was another good forum out there. Since you are into health-related matters. This forum should keep you busy for a few years lol. You might be interested in a chap Named Ted he seems to have deep knowledge in terms of natural cures

https://www.earthclinic.com/

[Yodean]

where would you put money you currently can't invest . . . . in order to resist inflation

inflation-resistant securities or commodities ....

gold . . . bonds . . . crypto . . . etc

I think the problem with the "deflation vs. inflation" argument is that mainstream media use these terms in different ways: inflation (loss of a currency's purchasing power) has been constantly increasing throughout most of recent monetary history, but the contrived CPI numbers (which we all know are bogus) is going to come down, overall, with occasional spikes up, etc.; so asset price inflation (A.I. stocks, cryptos, residential real estate in certain regions, precious metals, etc.) will still occur, but we will likely see the CPI come down from current levels in 2022 - hence, official "deflationary" forces.

CPI is B.S. and heavily manipulated, for sure, but it's what governments use and base their monetary and fiscal policies on.

I don't see a _significant_ Fed rate hike for quite a long time; as for "taper," if this is intiated, it will be a small amount and the "taper" will be quickly discontinued when the markets correct significantly, & QE resumed at an even greater clip.

How to play this? Well, the safest approach would be simply to increase your USD allocation/cash and wait for good buying opportunities. There will be plenty of those in 2022, I suspect.

Personally, I do like a core allocation to certain asset classes at all times, and the proportions will depend on where I think we are in a certain asset cycle, as well as what I think King USD is going to do. These are my current allocations, subject to change at the whim of my mood, lol, and do not represent specific financial advice, so here they are approximately, atm:

Cash/U.S. bonds: 20%
Crypto: 14%
CTTs (Chinese Tech. Titans, plus MOMO & VIPS): 9%
Gold/Silver proxies: 5%
uranium: 8%

The rest is a hodgepodge of GAMANF in different proportions, TI positions, other A.I.-Tech. (e.g. SNAP), drugs (MNMD, marijuana), plenty of small-cap biotech, etc. that kind of thing, a little bit of copper-nickel . . .

To my eyes the precious metal sector is a "high visibility" trade currently; I don't expect to get rich off PMs, but I like them for diversification.

For the next 5 quarters or so, I see gold as _mostly_ trading between $1720 and $2000, so I will likely increase my PM allocation a little bit, on dips, etc. Gold will break $2000 at some point - I will worry about that when that day comes. So for me, I basically buy regularly when it's below $1800, and start taking profits when it nears $2000.

Silver is a bit trickier, but I think the lows are in for 2021. For 2022, I see silver between $18 and $30 (mostly above $20), and I basically also accumulate this asset class in the low 20s, and sell when it nears $30. At some point silver will break $30, likely quickly, but I'll worry about that when that time comes.

As for crypto, I think if you are starting out in this space, a 3% to 5% allocation to BTC and Ether proxies is reasonable as a core position, and to dollar-cost average into this sector slowly.

Crypto-related assets, imo, are among the most likely to trigger the whole "fear and greed" thing at a very deep level (in terms of position trades - options are worse, lol), as well as repressed childhood issues about money.

Sentiment seems to play the biggest role in how crypto-assets move (which would actually lend some credence to the possible correlation between BTC and Moon phases!).

Finally, my current plan includes taking a hard look at all my assets in the mid-Dec. 2021 through early Jan. 2022 time frame with a view towards selling to increase cash allocation. Until then I am cautiously bullish on the equity markets.

I don't expect 2022 to be a great year.

[hooligan]

I will let others answer that question for you, but my two cents is if you focus on the trend you won't need to ask that question. Following the Trend generates returns several magnitudes higher than inflation.

I agree, it's just a specific issue where there is money that I ought not actively invest for family reasons, and needs to stay dormant and as risk free as possible for the time being. I've never honestly explored much hedging or conservative strategy so it's just something I need to wrap my head around.

[hooligan]

Finally, my current plan includes taking a hard look at all my assets in the mid-Dec. 2021 through early Jan. 2022 time frame with a view towards selling to increase cash allocation. Until then I am cautiously bullish on the equity markets.

All helpful ! Ty

[SOL]

I will let others answer that question for you, but my two cents is if you focus on the trend you won't need to ask that question. Following the Trend generates returns several magnitudes higher than inflation.

I agree, it's just a specific issue where there is money that I ought not actively invest for family reasons, and needs to stay dormant and as risk free as possible for the time being. I've never honestly explored much hedging or conservative strategy so it's just something I need to wrap my head around.

Risk-free is a myth. People often confuse being liquid with risk. You keep your money at home, the house burns down it's gone. You keep your money under the mattress, you die someone else gets it. You keep your money in the bank, the bank could go under and the insurance they have might only cover a portion of your deposit

Selling put's is a great way to earn money as long as you do it on stocks that you don't mind owning. Additionally, get into strong stocks that have pulled back. It all depends on what that money has been set aside for

[Yodean]

*****

The "Commodities" line is interesting ... lol, isn't real stuff that is consumed supposed to get much more expensive in fiat terms over time?

Hmmm, perhaps tech. = deflation.

[SOL]

*****

The "Commodities" line is interesting ... lol, isn't real stuff that is consumed supposed to get much more expensive in fiat terms over time?

Hmmm, perhaps tech. = deflation.

This clearly proves that the HYPERFINLATION argument is pure rubbish. Follow the trend and you will be fine. Inflation is a problem for the masses as they sit and hope for the best. The elite don't sit and wait, they act. If you act you are fine, if not you are in trouble

[Triplethought]

*****

The "Commodities" line is interesting ... lol, isn't real stuff that is consumed supposed to get much more expensive in fiat terms over time?

Hmmm, perhaps tech. = deflation.

Hey Yo, What is the source for this graph? I'm not sure I totally understand it - I don't get the frequency part. thought if I saw it in context it might make sense. It's also weird that it isn't by year like 1970-2021 or whatever since all such comparisons depend on the era you view them.

[hooligan]

this graph is very powerful if verified! would love to understand the metrics better here also

[Yodean]

@TT, @hooligan:

The graph is from a recent study performed by Goldman Sachs on inflation. I consider Goldman Sachs one of the most "evil" banks out there, which is one reason I don't like to reference GS too much. Still, you dance with the devil when you have to.

A lot of ex-Goldman Sachs advisors who started their own companies are really bright and worth listening to regarding specific sectors. I also try to keep an eye on what GS is doing (i.e. investing in China, blockchain, etc.) when GS isn't working behind other surrogate/shell companies, and it's almost always been profitable over the long-term.

Back to the graph. Basically, it compares CPI against percentage gains in the various sectors shown since 1928. Yeh, we all know CPI is basically bogus, but it's still data.

Since 1928, the US stock market is up 9.8% per year while the rate of inflation has averaged 3% per year. So stocks have grown at nearly 7% more than the rate of inflation.

The graph shows how often, in percentage terms (vertical axis), various sectors outperformed CPI over a given time period, in years (horizontal axis), since 1928. You can take any continuous interval during this time period.

For example:

US equities have outperformed inflation 100% of the time over any 19-year window.

Gold outperforms inflation only about 50% of the time over a 19-year window.