Hyperinflation or Deflation that is the billion dollar question

[SOL]

All the chaps pushing the hyperinflation theory forget one massive factor. Technology leads to deflation. The more innovation there is, the most likely outcome is deflationary. Another enormous factor is that global debt is so high that the debt cannot be paid even in this current ultra-low-rate environment. Imagine what would happen if rates soared, it would create total chaos as in devastation. Hence rates will not skyrocket. While they might rise temporarily, they will not be allowed to trend upwards naturally. If free-market forces were in play, current rates should be at least in the 5 to 6 per cent ranges and that is a conservative figure

While I disagree with many articles, this article focuses on some of the topics we have been addressing over the past 24 months. The most expensive component of any industry is the human component, and tech will replace a considerable number of workers. Secondly, when things look like they will get out of control, big government will come to the rescue with a universal income mandate. While that might appear expensive, it won’t for the big tech companies will generate so much in revenues that they won’t mind subsiding the masses. The universal income will come with a host of mandates and it will be just enough to exist, which will enslave the masses even more.

https://www.ecency.com/hive-167922/@tas ... -deflation


In essence, the hyperinflation theory is pure rubbish, and those pushing it are living in the old era. Remember that we are basing our inflation outlook on the bastardized version of inflation the Fed pushes, and the masses believe this hook line sinker. Very few even know what hard money means. COVID was the ultimate test to illustrate how media control is essential to push whatever narrative one desires. As the big players control the media, one can forget about the masses waking up. Universal income will be the final nail in the coffin. In other words, the masses will be mentally and chemically castrated. They will either have to embrace it or starve. Universal income will provide the top players with unprecedented control over the masses. You step out of line, your benefits are cut. Against such a backdrop, 90% will succumb and to succeed, you only need 75% to give in

[Yodean]

Agreed - don't think hyperinflation is a credible threat for global reserve currencies like the USD, nor the stronger ones just behind; for really weak countries, hyperinflation is possible (e.g. Venezuela, Zimbabwe, etc.).

[AstuteShift]

https://youtu.be/0obBdrfUMzU

Metallica was ahead of it’s time

Puppet Masters just fooling the masses once again

[Triplethought]

All the chaps pushing the hyperinflation theory forget one massive factor. Technology leads to deflation. The more innovation there is, the most likely outcome is deflationary. Another enormous factor is that global debt is so high that the debt cannot be paid even in this current ultra-low-rate environment. Imagine what would happen if rates soared, it would create total chaos as in devastation. Hence rates will not skyrocket. While they might rise temporarily, they will not be allowed to trend upwards naturally. If free-market forces were in play, current rates should be at least in the 5 to 6 per cent ranges and that is a conservative figure

While I disagree with many articles, this article focuses on some of the topics we have been addressing over the past 24 months. The most expensive component of any industry is the human component, and tech will replace a considerable number of workers. Secondly, when things look like they will get out of control, big government will come to the rescue with a universal income mandate. While that might appear expensive, it won’t for the big tech companies will generate so much in revenues that they won’t mind subsiding the masses. The universal income will come with a host of mandates and it will be just enough to exist, which will enslave the masses even more.

https://www.ecency.com/hive-167922/@tas ... -deflation


In essence, the hyperinflation theory is pure rubbish, and those pushing it are living in the old era. Remember that we are basing our inflation outlook on the bastardized version of inflation the Fed pushes, and the masses believe this hook line sinker. Very few even know what hard money means. COVID was the ultimate test to illustrate how media control is essential to push whatever narrative one desires. As the big players control the media, one can forget about the masses waking up. Universal income will be the final nail in the coffin. In other words, the masses will be mentally and chemically castrated. They will either have to embrace it or starve. Universal income will provide the top players with unprecedented control over the masses. You step out of line, your benefits are cut. Against such a backdrop, 90% will succumb and to succeed, you only need 75% to give in

Sol, what is your take on why businesses are having trouble getting labor right now? Do you see the lack of workers as inflationary? If so will labor shortage end? Thanks in advance

[SOL]

Sol, what is your take on why businesses are having trouble getting labor right now? Do you see the lack of workers as inflationary? If so will labor shortage end? Thanks in advance

For the first time maybe in decades, the masses found out what it was not to be a slave to the grind. Under normal circumstances, it would be nigh impossible for the average person to get several months of vacation. Due to COVID, they got a taste of what it feels like to be free. Most people hate their jobs; they only work because they need to make ends meet. When you enjoy what you do it's not called work and as stated very few falls under that category.

So, the 4th level or MP reason businesses are finding it hard to fill in job openings is that most people don’t want to work in jobs they hate and more importantly for what appears to be a meaningless income. Remember when you hate your job you think more often about money and or getting out. When you enjoy your job, money is usually a secondary thought after a certain level is hit. COVID provided the masses with detailed insights into how terrible their lives are. Few will do anything actionable other than moan and groan and look for options that can keep them from going back to work. But a small percentage will look into doing something they enjoy.

In simple words, for many in the workforce, COVID provided them with a "plutos allegory of the cave" moment

[Triplethought]

Sol, what is your take on why businesses are having trouble getting labor right now? Do you see the lack of workers as inflationary? If so will labor shortage end? Thanks in advance

For the first time maybe in decades, the masses found out what it was not to be a slave to the grind. Under normal circumstances, it would be nigh impossible for the average person to get several months of vacation. Due to COVID, they got a taste of what it feels like to be free. Most people hate their jobs; they only work because they need to make ends meet. When you enjoy what you do its not called work and as stated very few falls under that category.

So, the 4th level or MP reason businesses are finding it hard to fill in job openings is that most people don’t want to work at jobs they hate and more importantly for what appears to be a meaningless income. Remember when you hate your job you think more often about money and or getting out. When you enjoy your job, money is usually a secondary thought after a certain level is hit. COVID provided the masses with detailed insights into how terrible their lives are. Few will do anything actionable other than moan and groan and look for options that can keep them from going back to work. But a small percentage will look into doing something they enjoy.

In simple words, for many in the workforce, COVID provided with the a "plutos allegory of the cave" moment

But they still have to eat whether they hate their jobs or not. Since stimulus payments have ended, the implication is that these people have limited time to get back to work, or have a spouse that works and have decided to opt out of the American dream, or were able to get on disability, food stamps, welfare or other program, or are working for cash "under the table" or are OK with going homeless. If only 5.2% in US of the people are unemployed that 5% mostly don't want to work or have very low skill sets. I think probably a lot of older "baby boomers" decided to retire early and that clump probably hurt the workforce. They wouldn't be called unemployed in government stats I don't think.

Either way, it seems people will be living on less income and resetting expectations.

Maybe Biden has a secret plan to let all the Hattian immigrants take the fast food jobs. Which would be fine except it's not a good long term solution because we'll have a lot (even more) low skill workers who will get displaced with automation in 10-20 years. We should be giving them temporary work permits and emphasizing it's not a path to citizenship.

[AstuteShift]

The days of settling or the “American Dream” is exactly that, an illusion that never existed

Look at New York for example, why would anyone with common sense still live there? Same with California and those extreme radical policies

Overall, although red states offer more illusory freedom temporarily, they will bow down too.

The only escape is going to areas of the world where the government has no over reach and non of this support system, in exchange cost of living is lower and you can escape like a bandit

[AstuteShift]

https://youtu.be/4Z0AszN2GhM

This chap has a good understanding, that deflation is here to stay. Glad there is some individuals with some brain which is becoming more and more scarce

[Budge]

https://youtu.be/4Z0AszN2GhM

This chap has a good understanding, that deflation is here to stay. Glad there is some individuals with some brain which is becoming more and more scarce

Good reality check as was Sol's recent MU historical foodstuff comparison. Preaching to the converted? Hopefully we don't march into the cave to tell the peons how well off they are really!

"I reject your reality and substitute my own." (Adam Savage, Mythbusters) Perception trumps reality. This is part of an email I received from my local congresscritter:

"Real World Impacts of Inflation
You may have seen this past week that President Biden's Chief of Staff stated that the inflation we are experiencing is a "high class" problem. This could not be further from the truth. It also goes to show just how out of touch this Administration is with hardworking Americans. Price increases for literally everything we purchase are having a real-life impact on every single American family. A recent study estimates inflation is costing families an additional $175 per month on average. Inflation is hidden taxation, and it hits low income to middle income families the hardest."

"Take a look at how much higher prices are now as compared to just a year ago in the chart below — some of which are very much essential, everyday items.







The White House downplays this crisis at their own political peril. While they may believe the rising cost of gas prices, electricity bills, used cars, kids' shoes, and groceries are "high class problems," by ignoring the impact of inflation spurred on in large part by unnecessary federal spending they are failing to help American families who will ultimately face the difficult decisions on how to make ends meet. Passage of another trillion plus dollar Budget Reconciliation Bill will only make inflation that much worse. The tax increases in their bill combined with inflation will slow the economy substantially next year."

I take exception to a couple of points that Gada makes. Optimal inflation 2%-3% (0% is too low) and there's no reason to raise interest rates. I hope he never has to live on a fixed income and perhaps he's covered in a previous report how pensions funds dig out of this mess.

Notice that BLS base year stats is the average of 1982-1984. Before that it was 1967, before that... Every day in every way government will screw you over.

[Yodean]

*****

If I had to hazard a guess, I would put my bets on the green line ("Later Liftoff" of the graph on the left) as the highest probability base case.

I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where the Fed raises rates significantly (i.e. by more than 25 basis points at most) in 2022, while simultaneously trying to taper the QE bond-MBS buying program.

[Budge]

The most expensive component of any industry is the human component, and tech will replace a considerable number of workers. Secondly, when things look like they will get out of control, big government will come to the rescue with a universal income mandate. While that might appear expensive, it won’t for the big tech companies will generate so much in revenues that they won’t mind subsiding the masses. The universal income will come with a host of mandates and it will be just enough to exist, which will enslave the masses even more.

"The impact upon labor is an obvious result of this advancement."

Maybe, just maybe, with so many of these ultra-rich elites favoring depopulation, we're talking of another "Final Solution" as the end game?!

[AstuteShift]

https://youtu.be/7OyNaEnCYNI

Another great video, inflation boogeyman is just retarded

[Yodean]

Another great video, inflation boogeyman is just retarded

Nice clip - the chap is quite bright and the data he presents is quite good. With that said, from my perspective he arguably suffers from a major blind spot: he is assuming the Fed is dumb and is making a mistake by tapering which will likely lead to a significant market correction in 2022.

An alternative view is that the Fed knows exactly what it is doing and actually wants to deflate/deleverage the economy a bit, so that even more money-printing is justified, more capital controls, more UBI proxies, more surveillance, etc.

In essence, stampede the Herd by creating another financial crisis in the form of a sudden deflationary or deleveraging event in the economy, and create the conditions to justify "Forever QE" x 666, etc.

Here we go ...

[SOL]

Another great video, inflation boogeyman is just retarded

Nice clip - the chap is quite bright and the data he presents is quite good. With that said, from my perspective he arguably suffers from a major blind spot: he is assuming the Fed is dumb and is making a mistake by tapering which will likely lead to a significant market correction in 2022.

An alternative view is that the Fed knows exactly what it is doing and actually wants to deflate/deleverage the economy a bit, so that even more money-printing is justified, more capital controls, more UBI proxies, more surveillance, etc.

In essence, stampede the Herd by creating another financial crisis in the form of a sudden deflationary or deleveraging event in the economy, and create the conditions to justify "Forever QE" x 666, etc.

Here we go ...

This has been our take at TI for years. The Fed is not dumb at all. They are incredibly bright as it takes a very smart group of people to create the illusion that they don't know what they are doing, when in fact, they know precisely what the outcome will be from each move.

There has to be a correction in 2022 because the Fed needs an excuse to print more money. As we stated many moons ago, we are in the era of forever QE which means money will be printed forever or until something better like an alternate universe comes along (Metaverse coincidence or planned) where they push people into and pay them another form of currency while cutting back the debt in this universe.

The way we see things is as follows

1) bullish sentiment will start to rise, we will soon get back to back readings where the bullish sentiment will trade above its historical average
2) The media will start pushing its time to buy now mantra, which will lead to a sharp sell off
3) This sell-off will allow the Fed to change its storyline and state that they can't raise rates as they need to protect the masses.
4) The sell-off in the markets will also end the labour shortage problem. As every Tom, Dick and Harry will start to line up for a job, after their IRA's take a hit

When things look really bleak or bearish sentiment drops in the 15 to 18 ranges, the market will put in a multi-year bottom


Long story short, Fight the end and you will end up dead as in dead broke.

[AstuteShift]

Yep I don’t agree on his premise that the FED is dumb, far from it. They’re the magicians of the market, able to con the masses with boom abs bust cycles

However, the chap has great points on deflation and tech, he has a good eye on that