MDD

[Budge]

I'm nervous about anything "china" related in the market. Given the tension with India and the likelihood of future tension over Taiwan I want nothing to do with them. I bought MOMO but am even nervous about that one.

Lol, I've been on a buying frenzy over the last few weeks with BABA, BIDU, and TCEHY. Buy some almost every day, on dips. Looking forward to buying more if and when the general markets correct.

My personal, ongoing, slow rotation of funds out of the GAMANF titans into the CTTs (Chinese Tech. Titans).

Buy when there is blood on the streets, even when the blood is your own.

When you start buying the CTTs, I will know it's time to trim my positions in them.

I like your style. Full disclosure, I own them as well. I think BABA and BIDU have further to drop but TCEHY near a turn.

[SOL]

I will post some charts of Chinese stocks when time permits, but TCEHY (which I like) and BIDU are both trading in the extremely overbought ranges. I suspect what is going to happen is that most of the Chinese tech and even other stocks such as VIPS will move to the screaming buy ranges. It happens every now and then. Something that is hated usually experiences a selling climax and it appears that most of the Chinese stocks have not experienced that yet.

Of the tech stocks, BABA looks the best now. However only MOMO is trading in the oversold ranges and it's not really a tech play, it's more play on the human meat market.

[Yodean]

I will post some charts of Chinese stocks when time permits, but TCEHY (which I like) and BIDU are both trading in the extremely overbought ranges. I suspect what is going to happen is that most of the Chinese tech and even other stocks such as VIPS will move to the screaming buy ranges. It happens every now and then. Something that is hated usually experiences a selling climax and it appears that most of the Chinese stocks have not experienced that yet.

Of the tech stocks, BABA looks the best now. However only MOMO is trading in the oversold ranges and it's not really a tech play, it's more play on the human meat market.

Thanks for the input. Looks like I am going to have to fool around with how I view my indicators a bit. In general terms, I see max. downside in the CTTs of 10% - 20% from current price points, while max. upside is 50% to 150%, in the next 6 to 18 months or so. I feel like I am getting at least 2.5 to 1 or better for my money, so the asymmetry's there for me.

[ultramartian]

Thanks for the input. Looks like I am going to have to fool around with how I view my indicators a bit. In general terms, I see max. downside in the CTTs of 10% - 20% from current price points, while max. upside is 50% to 150%, in the next 6 to 18 months or so. I feel like I am getting at least 2.5 or better for my money, so the asymmetry's there for me.

The biggest problem with the Chinese stocks is the inconsistency of the CCP's regulating policies in every aspect of people's lives and businesses. They keep flip-flopping for no good reason (the only valid reason is to maintain the reign of power of the almighty Emperor Xi and the CCP). The other problem is the transparency in their accounting practice, which is also true for many western companies.

[Triplethought]

Thanks for the input. Looks like I am going to have to fool around with how I view my indicators a bit. In general terms, I see max. downside in the CTTs of 10% - 20% from current price points, while max. upside is 50% to 150%, in the next 6 to 18 months or so. I feel like I am getting at least 2.5 or better for my money, so the asymmetry's there for me.

The biggest problem with the Chinese stocks is the inconsistency of the CCP's regulating policies in every aspect of people's lives and businesses. They keep flip-flopping for no good reason (the only valid reason is to maintain the reign of power of the almighty Emperor Xi and the CCP). The other problem is the transparency in their accounting practice, which is also true for many western companies.

Both the inconsistent governance and military aggressiveness are the things that make me nervous. Neither may be that important in the next 6 months but sooner or later the music will stop . The way I see it is there are plenty of American companies to trade. The only reason to do Chinese is if we think they'll experience MORE explosive growth than any similar American company. So much more explosive that it's worth taking the risk on ongoing government interference.

[Yodean]

On the monthly charts, it still has a long way to go before it gets to the oversold ranges. Probably at least another 9 to 12 weeks of consolidation. One more sharp leg and then most of the selling pressure should be out of the way.
Remind me to look at it again in a few weeks or if it drops to 33

KWEB's not @ 33 yet, but quite oversold on my weekly charts and getting there on the monthly. Significant support at the low 40s.

[Yodean]

I suspect what is going to happen is that most of the Chinese tech and even other stocks such as VIPS will move to the screaming buy ranges. It happens every now and then. Something that is hated usually experiences a selling climax and it appears that most of the Chinese stocks have not experienced that yet.

Of the tech stocks, BABA looks the best now. However only MOMO is trading in the oversold ranges and it's not really a tech play, it's more play on the human meat market.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ ... tive-chart

Are we there yet, boss?

[SOL]

I wish i could say yes but on the charts BABA is the only one that has made it to the extremely oversold ranges. The screaming buy range would take a lot more selling or sideways movement for another 6 to 12 weeks.

The other players such as TCEHY, VIPS, BIDU, etc are a long way from even hitting the extremely oversold ranges.

[Triplethought]

I wish i could say yes but on the charts BABA is the only one that has made it to the extremely oversold ranges. The screaming buy range would take a lot more selling or sideways movement for another 6 to 12 weeks.

The other players such as TCEHY, VIPS, BIDU, etc are a long way from even hitting the extremely oversold ranges.

Unrelated (in a way) but the Chinese bad news today objecting to cryptocurrency seems to have made GBTC dip today and suggests that waiting a few more days to get out of GBTC might be good. I'm saying this on the theory "don't do what the masses are doing".

I'm still surprised given all the herky jerky of the Chinese government this year beating on legit businesses, cracking down on Hong Kong that y'all have any appetite for Chinese stock (says the owner of 1 lot of MOMO)

[AstuteShift]

BABA looks great for a long, this stock is literally a baby being thrown without the bath water. Just utter despair which should be cue for a buy. IF you feel pain to buy then buy and ignore the useless emotion

BIDU and the rest from what I see is still in correction mode and more pain to be inflicted.

Remember, to always divide funds into lots and never over allocate at one moment in time.
If the markets correct 15+ early next year, even more of a juicy opportunity will come.

[Yodean]

Part of the Continuing Financial Education (CFE) homework I assigned myself:

(1) TCEHY: cap. 559.4 billion, P/E 32.4, monthly: slightly overbought, weekly: quite oversold;

(2) BABA: cap. 394.4 billion, P/E 19.2, monthly: quite oversold, weekly: very oversold;

(3) BIDU: cap. 52.5 billion, P/E 18.7, monthly: somewhat overbought, weekly: quite oversold;

(4) VIPS: cap. 8.2 billion, P/E 8.7, monthly: neutral, weekly: quite oversold;

(5) MOMO: cap. 1.7 billion, P/E 7.3, monthly: quite oversold, weekly: neutral;

(6) KWEB: P/E 30.3, monthly: neutral, weekly: quite oversold;

(7) FXI: P/E 14.89, monthly: neutral, weekly: quite oversold;

On balance, the monthly charts appear to be exerting more pressure currently than the weekly charts.

*****

EBI (Experimental Bitcoin Indicator): 67%buy/33%sell;