playing the dips when the trend is up

[hooligan]

i'm beginning to consider doing this, trying to make money in both directions.

shorting, option strategies, etc, using TI as the jumping off point.

wanted to see if anyone else is already doing this, and if so, if they wanna discuss.

volatility is crazy high, so why not take advantage?

as Sol said in another forum:

"...we wont be shorting the markets when the trend is up, that kind of thinking can affect a trend players mindset. If I was just playing alone I might consider it..."

[Yodean]

From my experience, trying to take advantage of a counter-trend dip in a primary bull market generally doesn't work out too well, unless you are really, really good, and a bit lucky.

I've witnessed numerous otherwise top-notch traders lose trying to short a primary bull market. With that said, it can probably be done quite successfully, if you pick the right stops to limit your potential losses and know when to take profits.

I've lost plenty of money shorting markets in the past decade or so, so at this point it's not for me. I will admit that I am quite tempted to short these markets at current levels.

For example, here is a possible short I have been considering for some time (I am not going to do it, it just keeps popping into my head everyday, lol):

- start shorting the Dow when it cracks 30k, in tranches, and keep shorting until it hits 33k (if it doesn't drop below 28k between your original initiation of shorts at 30k); or some modified version of this;

- another possible short idea: any time a specific market sector (e.g. gold, BTC, even a large-cap stock like Google, etc.) makes an all-time nominal high, you short right away; of course, you need to know when to take profits and how to set your stops; the latter is a lot harder than it sounds, imo;

My current approach is much less exciting, but allows me to sleep better at night: as I am expecting a pullback of some sort in the general equity markets between now and January 21st, 2021 , I have been slowly taking profits on a lot of my equity positions and going long the USD in some form (something like UUP). As most people are probably aware, when there is a significant pullback in the equity markets, the USD usually goes up, at least temporarily. So in a sense it's a very "soft" short - perhaps better called a caress.

I am fairly happy if I can consistently capture 70%+ of an upside move or so . . . imo trying to get to 90 - 100% (i.e. timing a precise top) is too difficult. Trying to do the same on the downside is even harder.

If I am wrong and the Dow powers past 33k between now and then, uninterrupted? I'll have a lot of extra dry powder to deploy, and simply wait for the February 2021 issues of the Market Update and A.I.Trend Trader before firing my ammo.