uranium sector and mines

[stefk]

https://www.sprott.com/media/4192/urani ... tsheet.pdf

[Yodean]

""Uranium price explosion is just the beginning; “You ain’t seen nothing yet” says Rick Rule

Lol, yeh, I watched that interview earlier today. I've been waiting for a pullback to buy SRUUF (the physical uranium trust mentioned in the interview), but it's gone a little bit parabolic recently.

Oh well . . . I'll probably wait until early next year, if/when there's a big equity pullback, to buy some. In the meantime, nice to watch my URNM, CCJ, & URC.VN go up even more. I suspect that T.I.'s BWXT will have a nice run up, too, soon.

[stefk]

Yodean, you dont have an uranium explorer in Athabasca ? you are canadian, and there are some good canadian explorer.s

[Yodean]

Yodean, you dont have an uranium explorer in Athabasca ? you are canadian, and there are some good canadian explorer.s

I don't know enough about individual miners or that sector to feel confident in picking the good ones. My approach currently to uranium/nuclear is somewhat similar to precious metals (PMs).

I like the royalty streaming model for PMs - I have core positions in WPM, MTA, FNV, and MMX. I also have the CEF.TO (Sprott Physical Gold/Silver Trust). So these generally represent my HODL PM allocation, although I do swing-trade a portion some of the time. I also swing-trade a bit of GLD or SLV, if the set-up is really, really good.

For nuclear/uranium, URC.VN or UROY is a fairly new royalty streamer - it remains to be seen whether the royalty streaming model works for uranium, but so far it's been a good investment. I also have URNM, CCJ and BWXT, and I am waiting for a significant pullback in SRUUF to buy a bit.

Some of my foundational ideas about nuclear/uranium were stimulated by fellow subscriber nicolas.

[nicolas]

Some of my foundational ideas about nuclear/uranium were stimulated by fellow subscriber nicolas.

And mine were stimulated by random YouTube videos

Seriously, I started building a position in late 2018. The fundamentals attracted me. A very concentrated industry with a tiny market cap, after a long bear market. A commodity price well below its cost of production. At some point something had to give, either we run out of fuel and shut down all reactors or the price had to make its way up to at least $60-70. The only thing is that it's a very opaque niche market. Utilities don't buy at spot price, they contract long-term at prices that are not public. The amount of inventory stockpiled is unknown.

At the time I was working for EDF (the French utility) on the procurement of valves for 2 new reactors, the EPR of Flamanville in France and Hinkley Point in the UK. So, I could see the interest in building new capacity especially in China and India. It also formed my opinion that small scale reactors are a more pragmatic solution for the future. Not those mega reactors that are impossible to build on time and within budget. I am skeptical concerning the use of AI tools to streamline the process, on the contrary I'd see them increase the need for oversight. And the industry is very conservative by nature, the reliability of a known solution will always be preferred to innovation. On smaller projects, yes, maybe.

To summarise Rick Rule's position on uranium, the price of U is not done rising, but there will be volatility. Large producers like Cameco, Kazatom, and CGN Mining offer better value relative to small caps which are ahead of themselves (I'm already 9x on PDN and 6x on BMN so a good chunk of the asymmetry is gone.)

I'll stay with my strategy of trimming about 5-10% of the position every time it spikes. And if we get a nice pullback of 30-50%, I'll redeploy some into URNM, to keep it simple.

[stefk]

https://www.valorresources.com.au/media ... f-lake.pdf

""Through the modelling and processing of geophysics, the area of the Cluff Lake Uranium Mine was
initially evaluated to provide a targeting signature which was utilised to compare and contrast with
the geophysical responses across Valor’s Cluff Lake Project. The Cluff Lake Mine operated between
1980 and 2002, producing 62.5 million pounds of U3O8 (Saskatchewan Mining Association, Uranium in
Saskatchewan Facts on the Industry for 2016). ""


Executive Chairman, Mr George Bauk says, “This project comes with so much data and prospectively.
It is hard to believe that no work has been undertaken for decades. It is within seven kilometres of
the historic Cluff Lake mine that produced over 60 million pounds of uranium”.

..............................................................................................

https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/urani ... as-2021-09
At the same time, the biggest uranium miner, Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom, has committed to reduced production levels through 2023 in anticipation of uncertain demand, according to Dow Jones.

""Despite lower production, higher prices meant the company's net profits jumped 32% year-over-year in the first half of 2021, according to Reuters.""

The Kazaks begin to taste the benefits of reducing the production. They will begin to stack their yellow cake like Sprott.

[Yodean]

Seriously, I started building a position in late 2018. The fundamentals attracted me. A very concentrated industry with a tiny market cap, after a long bear market. A commodity price well below its cost of production. At some point something had to give, either we run out of fuel and shut down all reactors or the price had to make its way up to at least $60-70. The only thing is that it's a very opaque niche market. Utilities don't buy at spot price, they contract long-term at prices that are not public. The amount of inventory stockpiled is unknown.

At the time I was working for EDF (the French utility) on the procurement of valves for 2 new reactors, the EPR of Flamanville in France and Hinkley Point in the UK. So, I could see the interest in building new capacity especially in China and India. It also formed my opinion that small scale reactors are a more pragmatic solution for the future. Not those mega reactors that are impossible to build on time and within budget. I am skeptical concerning the use of AI tools to streamline the process, on the contrary I'd see them increase the need for oversight. And the industry is very conservative by nature, the reliability of a known solution will always be preferred to innovation. On smaller projects, yes, maybe.

To summarise Rick Rule's position on uranium, the price of U is not done rising, but there will be volatility. Large producers like Cameco, Kazatom, and CGN Mining offer better value relative to small caps which are ahead of themselves (I'm already 9x on PDN and 6x on BMN so a good chunk of the asymmetry is gone.)

I'll stay with my strategy of trimming about 5-10% of the position every time it spikes. And if we get a nice pullback of 30-50%, I'll redeploy some into URNM, to keep it simple.

Thanks nicolas. Terrific, succinct summary of the uranium/nuclear industry with actionable data for investors new to the space.

This excerpt is going into my Investing Journal.

[Yodean]

China has started testing a nuclear reactor that uses thorium as a fuel, according to a report published by Nature last week.

Researchers have experimented with thorium energy production before, but China may be able to commercialize the technology.

Nature said that China has spent 3 billion yuan (US$500 million) on developing thorium technology.

The first trial plant is small, with an estimated output of two megawatts of energy, but if successful power authorities envisage a 373-megawatt reactor by the end of the decade.

An added advantage is that the thorium is a by-product of rare earth metal processing. China is the world's largest producer of rare earth elements.

Much of the anticipated demand for that uranium is expected to come from China, which is building out a reactor fleet. But if the experimental thorium reactors gain traction, that could crimp demand, writes BMO Metals is a note published today.

"While the near-term uranium rally is founded on relatively aggressive investment buying, the long-term case relies heavily on Chinese demand, with the target for 120GWe of nuclear capacity by 2030 more than doubling today’s levels. However, as part of its technological push China is starting to test its experimental thorium-based molten salt nuclear reactor, which does not use uranium," writes BMO.

"This type of reactor does not need the same extent of cooling water, increasing its potential for use in inland areas. Thorium also is naturally more abundant than uranium and doesn’t decay to plutonium leaving less legacy risk. To be clear, this is very much still at the developmental stage, however, were it to be commercially viable this could be China’s new low carbon offering to the developing world in place of coal plants."

*****

@stefk, @nicolas:

I know this is really early, and the nuclear/uranium industry is by nature extremely conservative and slow to move, but any credence to the idea of thorium eventually, partially replacing uranium's role?

[stefk]

Yes, I already read something on thorium. This could replace uranium but not before ten years. This bull run we see now in uranium could last two years. There is an imbalance between supply and demand. Sprott and associates accelerate this imbalance, they try to corner the market. Thorium represents no risk for our investment for the moment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market

When you see the silver cornering in the years seventy, by the Hunt brothers, the price can run very high and very fast. And uranium market is more little than silver market. The common investors are not aware the level of price uranium can reach.
Uranium could reach 450$, 1000% from now, but the electricity price increase will be 25%.

And for the Hunt brothers, the story ended very badly, but for Sprott, all is legal.

The utilities in the world are, for the most part, government or states companies. For them, a price of U308 at 30$ or a price of U308 at 300$, its not a big difference for them. But for the Hunt, they had all the jewellers against them.

[SOL]

This company is building upon what South Africa and I believe Russia started

Fully Ceramic Microencapsulated (FCM™) fuel provides a new approach to inherent reactor safety by providing an ultimately safe fuel. Industry standard TRISO fuel, which contains the radioactive byproducts of fission within layered ceramic coatings, are encased within a fully dense silicon carbide matrix. This combination provides an extremely rugged and stable fuel with extraordinary high temperature stability.

The Micro Modular Reactor (MMR™) system is a 4th Generation nuclear energy system that delivers safe, clean, and cost-effective electricity and heat to remote mines, industry, and communities. It is the leading SMR project in Canada and the first so called "fission battery" concept worldwide.
https://www.usnc.com/fcm-fuel/

USNC Core Technology
(FCM) Fuel.
• Manufactured with TRISO coated
fuel particles compacted in specially
sintered Silicon Carbide pellets
• An extension of a reliable and
historically proven technology
resulting in two extra and very
strong barriers against radioactivity
release
• Full containment of radioactive
materials during operations and
accident conditions
• Eliminates any chance of
proliferation
• Provides environmental protection in
the permanent repository after
operations
https://gain.inl.gov/HALEU_Webinar_Pres ... pr2020.pdf


https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/0 ... te-change/

Nuclear Power in Russia(Updated August 2021)
Russia is moving steadily forward with plans for an expanded role of nuclear energy, including development of new reactor technology.
It is committed to closing the fuel cycle, and sees fast reactors as key to this.
Exports of nuclear goods and services are a major Russian policy and economic objective. Over 20 nuclear power reactors are confirmed or planned for export construction. Foreign orders totalled $133 billion in late 2017.
Russia is a world leader in fast neutron reactor technology and is consolidating this through its Proryv ('Breakthrough') project.

https://world-nuclear.org/information-l ... power.aspx

Rosatom targets 24 new reactor units in Russia by 2045
The Russian state nuclear corporation's director general, Alexey Likhachov, made the announcement on 5 March, at Rosatom's first 'information day' this year. The text of his statement was published yesterday by the company's in-house magazine Strana Rosatom.

At the end of 2020, nuclear power's share of Russia's energy mix stood at 20.28%. The country has 11 nuclear power plants in operation, including the floating nuclear power plant Akademik Lomonosov. These comprise 37 units with a total installed capacity of about 29.4 GWe. Nuclear power generated a record amount of electricity for Russia last year, of almost 215.8 TWh.

The difficulties presented by the pandemic make this achievement, among others, "all the more valuable", Likhachov said.

"The environmental agenda and climate change are becoming increasingly important in the world. Domestic challenges are becoming more complex and voluminous. The President and the government are counting on our competences, increasingly using the state corporation in the technological rearmament of the domestic economy. The main thing is to go from the regime of the epidemic to the mode of development. In the near future, each division and all enterprises will present their programmes to increase revenue and reduce costs," he said.

The company's strategy, Rosatom Vision-2030, which its supervisory board updated last year, targets an increase in revenue to RUB4 trillion (USD54 billion) "with a significant expansion in the share of new products and foreign orders, new technologies with mandatory export potential and qualitative changes in Rosatom itself: erasing internal boundaries between enterprises and divisions, as well as the creation of an industry environment for the development of employees", he added.
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles ... -Russia-by

Why China is developing a game-changing thorium-fuelled nuclear reactor


Lower accident risks?

The Chinese reactor could be the first molten-salt reactor operating in the world since 1969, when the US abandoned its Oak Ridge National Laboratory facility in Tennessee.

“Almost all current reactors use uranium as fuel and water, instead of molten salt and thorium," which will be used in China’s new plant, Jean-Claude Garnier, head of France’s Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), told FRANCE 24.

These two "new" ingredients were not chosen by accident by Beijing: molten-salt reactors are among the most promising technologies for power plants, according to the Generation IV forum – a US initiative to push for international cooperation on civil nuclear power.

With molten-salt technology, "it is the salt itself that becomes the fuel", Sylvain David, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and nuclear reactors specialist, explained in a FRANCE 24 interview. The crystals are mixed with nuclear material – either uranium or thorium – heated to over 500°C to become liquid, and are then be able to transport the heat and energy produced.

Theoretically, this process would make the installations safer. "Some accident risks are supposedly eliminated because liquid burning avoids situations where the nuclear reaction can get out of control and damage the reactor structures," Jean-Claude Garnier added.

There's another advantage for China: this type of reactor does not need to be built near watercourses, since the molten salts themselves "serve as a coolant, unlike conventional uranium power plants that need huge amounts of water to cool their reactors", French newspaper Les Echos noted. As a result, the reactors can be installed in isolated and arid regions… like the Gobi Desert.

China's plentiful supply

Beijing has also opted to use thorium rather than uranium in its new molten-salt reactor, a combination that has drawn attention from experts for years. This is mostly because “there is much more thorium than uranium in nature”, Francesco D’Auria, nuclear reactor technology specialist at the University of Pisa, told FRANCE 24.

In addition, thorium belongs to a famous family of rare-earth metals that are much more abundant in China than elsewhere; this is the icing on the cake for Chinese authorities, who could increase its energy independence from major uranium exporting countries, such as Canada and Australia, two countries whose diplomatic relations with China have collapsed in recent years.

Beijing’s investment is also a long-term one. “For now, there is enough uranium to fuel all operating reactors. But if the number of reactors increases, we could reach a situation where supply would no longer keep up, and using thorium can drastically reduce the need for uranium. That makes it a potentially more sustainable option," Sylvain David explained.
https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... ar-reactor

[Yodean]

Wow, Sol, great stuff, that's a lot of reading you must be doing, even taking into account your specialized speed-reading scanning technique. Maybe one day you could share some details of this.

Do you do anything to rest your eyes or reduce eyestrain? I don't feel that great after spending hours in front of a computer screen. I do use some simple techniques to reduce eyestrain, which helps a bit.

[SOL]

Wow, Sol, great stuff, that's a lot of reading you must be doing, even taking into account your specialized speed-reading scanning technique. Maybe one day you could share some details of this.

Do you do anything to rest your eyes or reduce eyestrain? I don't feel that great after spending hours in front of a computer screen. I do use some simple techniques to reduce eyestrain, which helps a bit.

I use glasses that filter out blue light. I have an EMF blocker on my Computer, hopefully it works as it's supposed to work. I also use a program (http://eyeleo.com/overview) that alerts me to take breaks from the screen and stare at a distant object on the wall for 1 minute. Instead I stop looking at the screen and attempt to do 80-100 pushups lol

Oh I also use F.lux
https://www.remote.tools/flux/product

[Budge]

Wow, Sol, great stuff, that's a lot of reading you must be doing, even taking into account your specialized speed-reading scanning technique. Maybe one day you could share some details of this.

Do you do anything to rest your eyes or reduce eyestrain? I don't feel that great after spending hours in front of a computer screen. I do use some simple techniques to reduce eyestrain, which helps a bit.

I use glasses that filter out blue light. I have an EMF blocker on my Computer, hopefully it works as it's supposed to work. I also use a program (http://eyeleo.com/overview) that alerts me to take breaks from the screen and stare at a distant object on the wall for 1 minute. Instead I stop looking at the screen and attempt to do 80-100 pushups lol

Oh I also use F.lux
https://www.remote.tools/flux/product

I was afraid you'd end up looking like this fella

[SOL]

Too much screen time can affect the eyes, that's why those computer glasses are essential, they cut down the strain by a huge margin

Without the glasses, the software program (eye Leo and F.lux), Oh I also use Russian glasses that have many holes in them. It actually improves vision and strengthens the eye muscles. You eyes are forced through look through a series of tiny holes

Without these things, I would probably be acting like these two cartoon characters

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVM1nUmDHHc

[Budge]

Too much screen time can affect the eyes, that's why those computer glasses are essential, they cut down the strain by a huge margin

Without the glasses, the software program (eye Leo and F.lux), Oh I also use Russian glasses that have many holes in them. It actually improves vision and strengthens the eye muscles. You eyes are forced through look through a series of tiny holes

Without these things, I would probably be acting like these two cartoon characters

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVM1nUmDHHc

I think Ren and Stimpy are reenacting an historical scene from The Forgotten Plague of medieval times:

https://www.historyhit.com/1374-dancing ... es-aachen/