Interim Update July 19, 2021

[Centeron631]

I guess i am more hung up on interpreting the actual sentences or paras or whatever they are as stated, so i can understand them with the words actually written and and therefor getting the style of Sol's sentence/ wording constructions for future reference and perhaps influencing there in some manner to the positive. Any help on that? would be appreciated. thks

[Eric]

I guess i am more hung up on interpreting the actual sentences...Any help on that? would be appreciated.

I think he forgot "and" twice.

"When the trend is strong and bullish, AND sentiment is trading below its historical average. AND The markets are trading in the oversold to highly oversold ranges, as indicated by the red arrows above. We will change the lot size......"

[Yodean]

I think he forgot "and" twice.

Methylene blue ingestion idiosyndratic side effect, potential systemic, chronic overdose . . . affects grammar, time-space perception, conventional usage of punctuation.



I kid.

[Centeron631]

When Tactical states cancel all orders on this company and it is not because of the stock having zoomed way up out of site and not reasonably possible to buy any longer at a decent price but does not make a comment on existing holdings of that stock, I am left with the feeling that TI does not like this investment any longer and maybe i should sell and take a loss if necessary? some eg.'s recently : Upld, ibm, ha

any comments would be appreciated.

[Triplethought]

When Tactical states cancel all orders on this company and it is not because of the stock having zoomed way up out of site and not reasonably possible to buy any longer at a decent price but does not make a comment on existing holdings of that stock, I am left with the feeling that TI does not like this investment any longer and maybe i should sell and take a loss if necessary? some eg.'s recently : Upld, ibm, ha

any comments would be appreciated.

I've had similar emotions regarding orphaned stock plays. I call them "orphans" although Sol isn't fond of this term. When asked he has stated several times that just because a play isn't mentioned doesn't mean it isn't being followed or that it should be sold. He did start doing the tables documenting actual holdings once per month, which helps to confirm you aren't going crazy when a play isn't mentioned. Big losers or lackluster plays aren't mentioned as frequently as winners, which I think is human nature.

To me it would seem sooooo much easier and more comforting to subscribers to always mention each play (since there are actually relatively few orphans) and keep them in alphabetical order (either consistently ordered by stock symbol versus by Name one time and by symbol the next). This is one of the reasons I advocated for the regular release of the spreadsheet.

[Yodean]

When Tactical states cancel all orders on this company and it is not because of the stock having zoomed way up out of site and not reasonably possible to buy any longer at a decent price but does not make a comment on existing holdings of that stock, I am left with the feeling that TI does not like this investment any longer and maybe i should sell and take a loss if necessary? some eg.'s recently : Upld, ibm, ha

any comments would be appreciated.

My sense is that it's all about shades of grey, risk-reward assessment. A one-lot position may be worth holding for the potential for further upside, but not worth deploying additional capital into.

You also have to consider that both the Dow and Nasd are overbought on the monthly charts, so there is the probability of some type of pullback in the fall, which that may drag some of the weaker stocks down.

We have entered a period of heightened volatility, so there will be lots of opportunities to buy other stocks when they become cheap, so no need to deploy more capital into the same position if the pattern is not clearly great.

Some very brief thoughts on stocks you mentioned:

(1) UPLD: due to release Q2 results after market close Aug. 4th, so it may get a nice pop in the days to follow, depending on news; on the monthly charts, over-sold w/ downside momentum, over-sold & testing support to the downside on both weekly & daily charts, w/ possible bull flag on weekly charts; overall, my base case is for a bounce in the near future, at the very least;

(2) IBM: a touch overbought on my monthly charts, mild upside momentum, consolidating w/ bullish bias on my weekly & daily charts; on my 20-year monthly charts, may have just broken out to the upside out of a huge bull flag; nah, I am not too worried about IBM, one of my "napping" giants; from a swing-trading perspective, if IBM closes below $136 on a weekly basis, I will take some profits, but currently am planning on holding a core position regardless of short-term price action;

(3) HA: reported mixed Q2 results in late July, a bit over-sold on my monthly charts; currently trading @ $19.78, I suspect the gap near $16 - $18 will get filled at some point, but given the inherent volatility of this stock, not a tradeable gap for me, not worth trying to outguess the markets on this one, better to hold on and see what happens, could bounce pretty big if downside gap not filled;

[AstuteShift]

IBM monthly



HA monthly



HA weekly



UPLD weekly looks decent, I think this is a AI play so I’ll leave that out

IBM and HA I have 2023 options on them, sold half of IBM options, keeping the rest. For HA I bought another lot actually. Personally I think they’re fine

[Centeron631]

Thanks for the wisdom info Y and A

with regards to comments on overbought both dow and nasdaq : i now hold Nail one of the Direxions. Im nervous about holding a leveraged etf expecially 3 x with markets so overbought and think is time to take a 19% gain as well some weeding of some losing positions. Im also a bit nervous on playing any more call options during this overbought period something i did a fair amt of in the past with keeping em out until at least 2 earnings reports (not so much anylonger as relying on Sol but must admit i would pick them off a fellow on Tipranks rated #1 from Camacore whose success rate was phenomenal but is not longer there).

In the background is a thought at back of my mind implanted many years ago that the market accounts for 50% of the buy/sell decisions on individual stocks then the rest re sector and the individual stock but maybe with Ti i have to rewrite this script somehow?.

When Sol did a piece on the dangers of leverage mainly thru margin i was somewhat surprised that he did not include the leveraged etfs as they are margined too

[SOL]

Regarding leveraged ETF's they are placed under the higher risk category and we have warned individuals many times that unless they are okay with taking on more risk they should not get into these plays. Also when we talk about margin the assumption is that individuals would understand that we are talking about margined ETFs"s also as they explicitly state on their prospectus that they trade on margin. So whether you are trading on margin or allowing someone else to do it for you via an ETF, etc, you take on the same amount of risk

When we cancel a pending play we have a position in, there are many reasons but none are for negative reasons. If there was a negative development we would get out of the position. We like to keep things simple. If we own the stock, then don't worry about it, unless we state otherwise.

Some reasons we cancel pending plays if we have a position in them

we found a better option
The stock has taken off

In terms of taking profits, if you are in doubt then close the position out. Have a game plan and that makes the whole game of investing much easier.

[Triplethought]

Thanks for the wisdom info Y and A

with regards to comments on overbought both dow and nasdaq : i now hold Nail one of the Direxions. Im nervous about holding a leveraged etf expecially 3 x with markets so overbought and think is time to take a 19% gain as well some weeding of some losing positions. Im also a bit nervous on playing any more call options during this overbought period something i did a fair amt of in the past with keeping em out until at least 2 earnings reports (not so much anylonger as relying on Sol but must admit i would pick them off a fellow on Tipranks rated #1 from Camacore whose success rate was phenomenal but is not longer there).

In the background is a thought at back of my mind implanted many years ago that the market accounts for 50% of the buy/sell decisions on individual stocks then the rest re sector and the individual stock but maybe with Ti i have to rewrite this script somehow?.

When Sol did a piece on the dangers of leverage mainly thru margin i was somewhat surprised that he did not include the leveraged etfs as they are margined too

For what it's worth I share your nervousness although I'm not sure of Nasdaq and S&P are overbought or not. I just know the graph has been up for a long time. Many of our Call options are upside down with a clock ticking on them and we need the market to continue to trend up over the next year or 2 to come out of them.. I hadn't thought about the triple ETFs but I will look at those.

[Centeron631]

Effect of delisting of chinese firms on American exchanges article in Economist also effect on TI reco fxi put or otherwise?

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... t-play-out

[Budge]

Regarding leveraged ETF's they are placed under the higher risk category and we have warned individuals many times that unless they are okay with taking on more risk they should not get into these plays. Also when we talk about margin the assumption is that individuals would understand that we are talking about margined ETFs"s also as they explicitly state on their prospectus that they trade on margin. So whether you are trading on margin or allowing someone else to do it for you via an ETF, etc, you take on the same amount of risk

Also, leveraged etfs have to rebalance daily. To get the multiples 2x, 3x they will add futures and swaps in addition to the underlying holding. Over a period of time, the leveraged etfs' return will diverge from the underlying investment.

[Yodean]

Effect of delisting of chinese firms on American exchanges article in Economist also effect on TI reco fxi put or otherwise?

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... t-play-out

@Centdude: What do YOU think of that article? Let's put that fine ex-legal mind of yours to good use, with its decades of life experience!

[djanderle]

UPLD after hours is down 20%

Worth loading up some more shares?