Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

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Triplethought
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Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by Triplethought »

I was really excited about the ETF MJ when we bought it for $20.40. When it spiked to $33.21 I was ecstatic. So euphoric I bought in March (on my own recognizance) 1/21/22 $30 and $25 calls. They looked like no brainers. Not only is the ETF down to $17.32 BUT I have essentially lost (unrealized loss) 95% of the money I put into those calls. I'm holding them in case by some miracle MJ spikes but I came to realize the chance of ETFs spiking by 2x radically are relatively low given it is a basket of stocks. My lessons on this are

1) Don't go off book from SOL's recommendations
2) If you do go off book commit relatively low amounts (I bought 2 full 1/3 lots so my losses are going to hurt).
2.5) Be careful with calls
2.8) Never "double down" when a stock takes off. If you're going to double down wait for it to dip. Stupid move.
3) generally don't buy calls on ETFs and indexes. Since calls rely on big swings it's not smart to do it on baskets of stocks.
4) Pot stocks are risky. I'm also losing on CGC. I'm starting to really not like pot.

Honestly I'm so traumatized by MJ that I'm reluctant to put an order in for the 2nd lot "in the 16.10 to 17.40 ranges". It's in range now but MJ has hurt me quite enough thank you very much.

Anyway, /Rant over
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by SOL »

Options are playing with fire that is why we are constantly modifying our stance in the TB service. They are dangerous there is no other way to put it.

Having said that it appears you learned some lessons, sadly the best way to learn a lesson is through pain.
Having said that remember your feelings on DDOG, you called it a dog and that dog suddenly took off. When one is confident one should commit fewer funds. When one is nervous, it is generally the right time to buy.
MJ is not trading in the insanely oversold ranges on the weekly charts, let's see if it takes off like it has done so in the past.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by Triplethought »

SOL wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:19 pm Options are playing with fire that is why we are constantly modifying our stance in the TB service. They are dangerous there is no other way to put it.

Having said that it appears you learned some lessons, sadly the best way to learn a lesson is through pain.
Having said that remember your feelings on DDOG, you called it a dog and that dog suddenly took off. When one is confident one should commit fewer funds. When one is nervous, it is generally the right time to buy.
MJ is not trading in the insanely oversold ranges on the weekly charts, let's see if it takes off like it has done so in the past.
Thanks SOL. DDOG has indeed been a pleasant surprise. The TB service and the calls intrigue and scare me as I haven't had sufficient time to work that portfolio. It was nice doubling my money on Raytheon today, but it makes me concerned I don't have the time to watch that portfolio closely enough. I've missed several plays. Which is fine, I mainly worry about missing the exits. I'm still holding one of the AI plays that I didn't exit on time due to lack of attention and every time I see the red losses I get annoyed with myself.
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by SOL »

Triplethought wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:28 pm

Thanks SOL. DDOG has indeed been a pleasant surprise. The TB service and the calls intrigue and scare me as I haven't had sufficient time to work that portfolio. It was nice doubling my money on Raytheon today, but it makes me concerned I don't have the time to watch that portfolio closely enough. I've missed several plays. Which is fine, I mainly worry about missing the exits. I'm still holding one of the AI plays that I didn't exit on time due to lack of attention and every time I see the red losses I get annoyed with myself.
Here is a strategy that we will discuss, some advanced traders that are jumping into options via the TB Service have decided to implement the following strategy and it appears to be working very well

Sell half the position when it is showing gains between 50 to 60
Sell the full position on gains of 100%

I have decided to call this strategy. The hit and run strategy lol
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by Yodean »

Triplethought wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:07 pm I was really excited about the ETF MJ when we bought it for $20.40. When it spiked to $33.21 I was ecstatic. So euphoric I bought in March (on my own recognizance) 1/21/22 $30 and $25 calls. They looked like no brainers. Not only is the ETF down to $17.32 BUT I have essentially lost (unrealized loss) 95% of the money I put into those calls.

4) Pot stocks are risky. I'm also losing on CGC. I'm starting to really not like pot.

Honestly I'm so traumatized by MJ that I'm reluctant to put an order in for the 2nd lot "in the 16.10 to 17.40 ranges". It's in range now but MJ has hurt me quite enough thank you very much.

Anyway, /Rant over
To me, this post pretty much means pot stocks have bottomed for the time being, or are close to doing so. I've got a fairly large position in cannabis-related assets as it is presently, but I'll be adding more. Not meant as an insult in any way - I just use what I perceive as valuable sentiment information.

:mrgreen:
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Get rich and get out . . .

Post by Yodean »

SOL wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:14 am Here is a strategy that we will discuss, some advanced traders that are jumping into options via the TB Service have decided to implement the following strategy and it appears to be working very well

Sell half the position when it is showing gains between 50 to 60
Sell the full position on gains of 100%

I have decided to call this strategy. The hit and run strategy lol
Would you recommend this strategy for non-TB options, as well (e.g. NLOK, etc.)? For those willing to experiment, of course . . .
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Re: Get rich and get out . . .

Post by SOL »

Yodean wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 11:48 am
SOL wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:14 am Here is a strategy that we will discuss, some advanced traders that are jumping into options via the TB Service have decided to implement the following strategy and it appears to be working very well

Sell half the position when it is showing gains between 50 to 60
Sell the full position on gains of 100%

I have decided to call this strategy. The hit and run strategy lol
Would you recommend this strategy for non-TB options, as well (e.g. NLOK, etc.)? For those willing to experiment, of course . . .
For those willing to experiment the sky is the limit and generally if one does so with an open the rewards are pretty good. I see nothing with utilising THAR Strategy (the hit and run) with all option plays. How can you lose when you bank profits :)
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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Re: Get rich and get out . . .

Post by Budge »

SOL wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 12:11 pm
Yodean wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 11:48 am
SOL wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:14 am Here is a strategy that we will discuss, some advanced traders that are jumping into options via the TB Service have decided to implement the following strategy and it appears to be working very well

Sell half the position when it is showing gains between 50 to 60
Sell the full position on gains of 100%

I have decided to call this strategy. The hit and run strategy lol
Would you recommend this strategy for non-TB options, as well (e.g. NLOK, etc.)? For those willing to experiment, of course . . .
For those willing to experiment the sky is the limit and generally if one does so with an open the rewards are pretty good. I see nothing with utilising THAR Strategy (the hit and run) with all option plays. How can you lose when you bank profits :)
As Nathan Rothschild supposedly said:

“How did I make my fortune? By always selling too soon. Sell, regret – and grow rich.”
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by SOL »

Yodean wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:28 am
Triplethought wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:07 pm I was really excited about the ETF MJ when we bought it for $20.40. When it spiked to $33.21 I was ecstatic. So euphoric I bought in March (on my own recognizance) 1/21/22 $30 and $25 calls. They looked like no brainers. Not only is the ETF down to $17.32 BUT I have essentially lost (unrealized loss) 95% of the money I put into those calls.

4) Pot stocks are risky. I'm also losing on CGC. I'm starting to really not like pot.

Honestly I'm so traumatized by MJ that I'm reluctant to put an order in for the 2nd lot "in the 16.10 to 17.40 ranges". It's in range now but MJ has hurt me quite enough thank you very much.

Anyway, /Rant over
To me, this post pretty much means pot stocks have bottomed for the time being, or are close to doing so. I've got a fairly large position in cannabis-related assets as it is presently, but I'll be adding more. Not meant as an insult in any way - I just use what I perceive as valuable sentiment information.

:mrgreen:
TH so far has provided very good contrarian information and from MP angle is quite good at timing the bottom without knowing it. He did this with DDOG and for fun, I bought options when he was ticked of it and they almost tripped. He is kind of like my brother who is a master programmer in one of the top companies in the SP500. Brilliant dude but useless when it comes to the markets. Tripethought in that sense fares much better than my brother.

No hard feelings TH but you do provide incredible data from MP perspective
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by AstuteShift »

SOL wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:28 pm
Yodean wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:28 am
Triplethought wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:07 pm I was really excited about the ETF MJ when we bought it for $20.40. When it spiked to $33.21 I was ecstatic. So euphoric I bought in March (on my own recognizance) 1/21/22 $30 and $25 calls. They looked like no brainers. Not only is the ETF down to $17.32 BUT I have essentially lost (unrealized loss) 95% of the money I put into those calls.

4) Pot stocks are risky. I'm also losing on CGC. I'm starting to really not like pot.

Honestly I'm so traumatized by MJ that I'm reluctant to put an order in for the 2nd lot "in the 16.10 to 17.40 ranges". It's in range now but MJ has hurt me quite enough thank you very much.

Anyway, /Rant over
To me, this post pretty much means pot stocks have bottomed for the time being, or are close to doing so. I've got a fairly large position in cannabis-related assets as it is presently, but I'll be adding more. Not meant as an insult in any way - I just use what I perceive as valuable sentiment information.

:mrgreen:
TH so far has provided very good contrarian information and from MP angle is quite good at timing the bottom without knowing it. He did this with DDOG and for fun, I bought options when he was ticked of it and they almost tripped. He is kind of like my brother who is a master programmer in one of the top companies in the SP500. Brilliant dude but useless when it comes to the markets. Tripethought in that sense fair better than my brother.

No hard feelings TH but you do provide incredible data from MP perspective
My favorite is my cardiologists, when they panic on their 401ks then it’s 100 % always a buying opportunity

My father as a handyman works in a building full of millionaires and celebrities, they talk about stocks all the time. He tells how euphoric or fearful they get, we capitalize and laugh afterwards. :mrgreen:
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by SOL »

AstuteShift wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:31 pm
SOL wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:28 pm
My favorite is my cardiologists, when they panic on their 401ks then it’s 100 % always a buying opportunity

My father as a handyman works in a building full of millionaires and celebrities, they talk about stocks all the time. He tells how euphoric or fearful they get, we capitalize and laugh afterwards. :mrgreen:
great source of Data. My brother is perfect in fact he helped contribute to the Mother of all buy signals last year. For all his brilliance he is dumb as a door knob when it comes to the markets as our most individuals.

We have hit Nasdaq 15K one of our higher targets so turbulent times are expected going forward and we will start baking profits as a precautionary measure
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by Triplethought »

Yodean wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 10:28 am
Triplethought wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:07 pm I was really excited about the ETF MJ when we bought it for $20.40. When it spiked to $33.21 I was ecstatic. So euphoric I bought in March (on my own recognizance) 1/21/22 $30 and $25 calls. They looked like no brainers. Not only is the ETF down to $17.32 BUT I have essentially lost (unrealized loss) 95% of the money I put into those calls.

4) Pot stocks are risky. I'm also losing on CGC. I'm starting to really not like pot.

Honestly I'm so traumatized by MJ that I'm reluctant to put an order in for the 2nd lot "in the 16.10 to 17.40 ranges". It's in range now but MJ has hurt me quite enough thank you very much.

Anyway, /Rant over
To me, this post pretty much means pot stocks have bottomed for the time being, or are close to doing so. I've got a fairly large position in cannabis-related assets as it is presently, but I'll be adding more. Not meant as an insult n any way - I just use what I perceive as valuable sentiment information.

:mrgreen:
No insult taken. I shared it specifically BECAUSE learning. You may be right that it's time to take another bite of the apple.
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by Triplethought »

SOL wrote: Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:14 am
Triplethought wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:28 pm

Thanks SOL. DDOG has indeed been a pleasant surprise. The TB service and the calls intrigue and scare me as I haven't had sufficient time to work that portfolio. It was nice doubling my money on Raytheon today, but it makes me concerned I don't have the time to watch that portfolio closely enough. I've missed several plays. Which is fine, I mainly worry about missing the exits. I'm still holding one of the AI plays that I didn't exit on time due to lack of attention and every time I see the red losses I get annoyed with myself.
Here is a strategy that we will discuss, some advanced traders that are jumping into options via the TB Service have decided to implement the following strategy and it appears to be working very well

Sell half the position when it is showing gains between 50 to 60
Sell the full position on gains of 100%

I have decided to call this strategy. The hit and run strategy lol
I'm going to implement that immediately! I've been feeling we're waiting too long on these. Looks like there is a 100% gain on one of the calls so off to sell it. Just sold 6 shares of BSX based on this formula. Holding 14 more
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by Yodean »

Lol, both CGC calls up 26% as I write this ... naturally, things could change quickly. Still ...
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Re: Why is MJ such a turd in the punch bowl?

Post by bpcw »

Aurora Cannabis - I asked in a separate post what you Sol and others thought of this stock but everyone ignored me, please respond this time or I might cry! :mrgreen:
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