Interim Update July 19, 2021

[SOL]

The next update will be sent out tomorrow. The current sell-off is a good sign for it's occurring when bullish sentiment readings are below their historical average. Note also that bonds mounted a strong rally as expected and the Dollar is ready to mount a multi-month rally. All these will eventually displace the Inflation is here talk

Also, note that many technology stocks are holding up well as well some stocks in regular sectors. Stocks that hold up well through sell-offs usually end up leading the next leg up.

[Eric]

I'll be a happy camper if tomorrow is a repeat of today.

[jlhooter]

I'll be a happy camper if tomorrow is a repeat of today.

I didn't want to say it yesterday but I was smiling. What is wrong with me?

[AstuteShift]

I'll be a happy camper if tomorrow is a repeat of today.

I didn't want to say it yesterday but I was smiling. What is wrong with me?

Adaptation

Embrace it

[gnosis12]

I'll be a happy camper if tomorrow is a repeat of today.

I didn't want to say it yesterday but I was smiling. What is wrong with me?

Looks like you took the red pill. I was also chuckling and would be happy with another down leg. It's amazing how your whole view of the world and life changes after Fear losses its hold over you

[Eric]

I wanted to see DOW 32,999 so I could deploy 2 lots into UDOW.

[jlhooter]

My Sushi chef was freaked out when I said I wished the Dow dropped another 2,000 pnts.

[xkosmox]

In the update, it is written

"We will change the size of the 1st lot. Instead of deploying 1/3rd of our funds, we will commit half our funds to the first position and divide the remaining funds into two ¼ lots.

There will be some exceptions. For example, we won’t apply this strategy to all high-risk plays.

When we take on more risk, we want to do so under the most ideal of conditions.

For advanced traders, we will soon post new entry points for the Universal Trigger.

Advanced traders can use these triggers to deploy additional funds into the market.

Note that you should understand our trading methodology backwards before using these triggers to commit more funds to the market. "

Two questions:
- This new shift in the 1st lot size will only potentially apply in the future for MU Trend Portfolio (Primary and Secondary candidates), MU ETF and AI Low-risk plays?
I'm assuming the rest are all considered high risk (MU Moderate to High Risk Portfolio, AI Random Sector Plays, TB, RT)

- What is this "Universal Trigger" term referring to?

[Centeron631]

To Sol et al
yeah this newbie to TA a little mixed up on the chart i believe it is the Dow and in particular my understanding of oversold/overbought

i tried to copy the image ie the chart but would not work but it is above this quote

It is stated: "When the trend is strong and bullish, sentiment is trading below its historical average. The markets are
trading in the oversold to highly oversold ranges, as indicated by the red arrows above. We will change......"

i notice on the chart that the rsi is a nick under 70 at current date which i thought meant overbought (once hits 70 or more). Also I look at the red arrows in the Macd and the green line is in all 3 arrows accross and thought something strong as in bullish sentiment because above red lines but also there is a numbering system there and do not know what it means as well? altho have heard the word deviation mentioned wrt Macd.
And what is the meaning of the words "sentiment is trading below its historical average" in the context of today's market and in context to the words "when the trend is strong and bullish" thks

I thought i had read a forum somewhere here on TA but cannot seem to find it again.

[SOL]

look at our sentiment charts in the market update. Historical average is 39.

Universal trigger is discussed in the Password protected section. It refers to pullback back points for the Dow that advanced traders can use to open new positions. This is not for newbees.

RSI at 70 in today's market is just slightly overbought. Markets tend to move to the extreme zones in both directions

Instructions for 1/2 lots will apply when the stated condiditons are met. The markets are not trading in the extremely oversold ranges so funds will be deployed in lots of 1/3rd.

[bpcw]

And bullish sentiment has dropped significantly further this week, all because of a tiny drop in stocks, a lot of nervousness out there!

[xkosmox]

Thanks for the clarification.

[Centeron631]

to Sol et al

i guess it is the languaging that is resulting in my not getting it ie the quoted sentence. Having the advantage of being in my native (and could not even dream of expressing myself as well as Sol in a second language) language and having learned English sentence construction in the Scottish grammar tradition growing up in the Winnipeg public school system 1940's onward and being influenced from my past lawyer career using real long sentences to help nail down meanings and combining that with my newbie knowledge of TA and resulting anxiety of trying to get it down, i am not getting the meaning of what is being expressed here.

"When the trend is strong and bullish, sentiment is trading below its historical average. The markets are
trading in the oversold to highly oversold ranges, as indicated by the red arrows above. We will change the lot size......"

I do not recognize the supposed meaning of sentence 1. Could it be intended: to be - When the trend is strong and bullish then sentiment is trading below its historical average. (which i have some doubt) or to be: When the trend is strong and bullish, sentiment is trading below its historical average, and the markets are trading in the oversold to highly oversold range , as indicated by the red arrows above, then we will change the lot size...... or something else?

I also just ran into another maybe similar sentence construction in the update "If the weekly charts wield more
power, and the stock or sector is not trading in the extremely
overbought ranges on the monthly charts. The odds are
above 80% that the stock/sector will recoup the losses and
take out their old highs.
Could the markets pull back sharply? Of course, they could.
Again i believe that the period should not be there after the word "charts" and it should be one long sentence to the end of the word "highs".

Sol i do hope U do not take offense to this and if i do offend then i sincerely apologize. Communication of new and not easy ideas or even easier ideas especially to newbies can be sooo challenging even in one's native language along with the fact there is so much to convey. English is not known to be one of the easier languages. Also i may be "out to lunch" - and if so it would not be the first time.

And yes im a fan of -'s, :'s, ;'s to use to go one above separations to ,'s and paranthesis to give aside comments within a thought.

[Yodean]

to Sol et al

"When the trend is strong and bullish, sentiment is trading below its historical average. The markets are
trading in the oversold to highly oversold ranges, as indicated by the red arrows above. We will change the lot size......"

@Cent.:

-wrt the 1/2 lot vs. 1/3 lot issue, T.I. will let us know when it is recommended to deploy 1/2 lots vs. 1/3 lots;

-basically, it's something to consider when all the following conditions are met:

1) sentiment trending below historical average (i.e. preferably more neutral/bearish);
2) markets are oversold;
3) overall trend is bullish;

Currently, #1 and #3 are in operation, but not #2, so T.I. would not recommend the 1/2 lot as your first deployment size;

But remember, at the end of the day, it's a recommendation. I've been experimenting with different lot sizes for quite a while, with mixed results.

Some examples:

a) 1/3rd x 3;
b) 1/2 lot x1, then 1/3rd lot, then 1/6th lot (I often use this one for my non-T.I. trades, i.e. if you were deploying 60k total, you do 30k first, then 20k, and then 10k as your final lot);
c) reverse b);

[SOL]

"When the trend is strong and bullish, sentiment is trading below its historical average. The markets are
trading in the oversold to highly oversold ranges, as indicated by the red arrows above. We will change the lot size......"

I do not recognize the supposed meaning of sentence 1. Could it be intended: to be - When the trend is strong and bullish then sentiment is trading below its historical average. (which i have some doubt) or to be: When the trend is strong and bullish, sentiment is trading below its historical average, and the markets are trading in the oversold to highly oversold range , as indicated by the red arrows above, then we will change the lot size...... or something else?

Haha why would I take offence, I don't have thin skin and more importantly my Ego is probably 1/10th the size it was 18 years ago. No offence taken.

Okay, the meaning is simple.

Weekly charts are exerting more of influence and if this is the case, It simply means that the markets/sectors will recoup a lot faster than expected. When monthly charts exert more of influence, the corrections, pullbacks tend to be more pronounced.

Lastly, we won't leave anyone alone. So you don't have to figure out what we mean. We will do the work. when it its time to take half a position we will state so.

The other subscriber explained the half a position stance perfectly so it makes no sense to repeat it.