Interim Market Update Nov 12, 2020

[SOL]

V-readings have surged to a new high of 9030. This indicator is now trading in the insane of insane ranges. The R&D
index has put in a series of highs over the past few months and is currently trading at a new high. The GP index has experienced its third surge in less than 3 weeks. Our Anxiety gauge experienced its sharpest move, moving from the madness zone to the middle of the Panic zone, probably the largest move in over 6 months. Bullish sentiment has surged to its highest level in almost 15 months.

Current readings are Bulls 55% Bears 25% and Neutrals at 20%.
when we combine all these moves, especially the third surge in the GP index it indicates something big could occur over the next few weeks.

So it would be wise to bank profits on some of your MU, AI and other positions you have that are showing healthy gains. Note that even during normal times, we always state that taking some money off the table is a good thing on positions that are showing healthy gains with the intent to reinvest this money when the opportunity shows up


This is not us being fearful, in fact, we are quite happy with the prospect of the markets pulling back for it comes to pass we will get another chance to purchase top-quality shares on the cheap.

Remember that each time the market pulls back it gives the Fed a reason to inject more money into the system, we are in the era of forever QE, hence until bullish sentiment surges past 70% for several weeks on end, we doubt this bull is going to be held back for too long.

[Yodean]

Thanks Sol!

[phillCC]

Our Anxiety gauge experienced its sharpest move, moving from the madness zone to the middle of the Panic zone, probably the largest move in over 6 months.

Sol,
I am a subscriber since Oct 2019 and only to the ETF Updates.
I was surprised to read the above comments on the Anxiety gauge.
It implies the Anxiety Gauge was in the Panic zone in the last six months.
I reviewed the Anxiety gauge in all the ETF Updates since the 21 Apr 2020 Update.
Since 21 Apr 2020, the Anxiety gauge has always been in the Madness zone, or on the border with the adjacent Hysteria zone.
Since then the gauge needle has never travelled through the Hysteria zone to the Panic zone.

I conclude the Anxiety gauge mentioned above is different from that in the ETF Updates.

Am I correct ?

[MarkD]

I have taken profits on lots of positions. Based on this update, more will be harvested. I am sitting on a healthy mountain of cash and believe corona will take a backseat to the election drama. But covid-19 lockdown will force folks to sit in their home alone over the holidays while the bad actors pump adrenalin into their veins, like they were subjected to this spring. People are too calm post election, nobody is dying of rona, Lake Placid appears to be frozen over.

South Beach about to experience a heat wave!

[Alykin]

Our Anxiety gauge experienced its sharpest move, moving from the madness zone to the middle of the Panic zone, probably the largest move in over 6 months.

Sol,
I am a subscriber since Oct 2019 and only to the ETF Updates.
I was surprised to read the above comments on the Anxiety gauge.
It implies the Anxiety Gauge was in the Panic zone in the last six months.
I reviewed the Anxiety gauge in all the ETF Updates since the 21 Apr 2020 Update.
Since 21 Apr 2020, the Anxiety gauge has always been in the Madness zone, or on the border with the adjacent Hysteria zone.
Since then the gauge needle has never travelled through the Hysteria zone to the Panic zone.

I conclude the Anxiety gauge mentioned above is different from that in the ETF Updates.

Am I correct ?

SOL states: moving from the madness zone to the middle of the Panic zone,
You interpret: It implies the Anxiety Gauge was in the Panic zone in the last six months.

How are you interpreting it was in the panic zone when SOL clearly stated it just moved into it.

[AstuteShift]

It’s been a while since bulls were 55%

I think the last high bull reading was back in 1/2018 before the fast capitulation happened.

Could the market soar higher? Perhaps, this is a crazy bull and it will not behave like others.

However for me it was prudent to take profits and be patient

Markets can soar but it always pulls back.

[phillCC]

SOL states: moving from the madness zone to the middle of the Panic zone,
You interpret: It implies the Anxiety Gauge was in the Panic zone in the last six months.

How are you interpreting it was in the panic zone when SOL clearly stated it just moved into it.

My mistake.
Thanks Alykin.

[langdj]

Most analysts are too afraid to make any statements about market direction right now. Right or wrong I appreciate you sticking your neck out with an opinion!

[rxw210]

Thanks, Sol! As I am new here, is there a quick reference to "healthy gain"? I was following your range strictly before. Again, thank you!

[Triplethought]

Thanks, Sol! As I am new here, is there a quick reference to "healthy gain"? I was following your range strictly before. Again, thank you!

I have been using 30% over the course of 3 months (10% per month) as a "healthy gain" on regular stocks. But I'm a rookie so don't go by me.

[rxw210]

Thanks, Sol! As I am new here, is there a quick reference to "healthy gain"? I was following your range strictly before. Again, thank you!

I have been using 30% over the course of 3 months (10% per month) as a "healthy gain" on regular stocks. But I'm a rookie so don't go by me.

Thank you!

[SOL]

Thanks, Sol! As I am new here, is there a quick reference to "healthy gain"? I was following your range strictly before. Again, thank you!

There is some info on this topic in the passcoded section. However, it's relatively simple. Find a profit target that appeals to you and one that you are content with and use that a guideline of when it sell half your position. Some aim for 25, some for 40, and there are some that push it all the way north of 80%. The higher you set it, the more risk you take.

One note is that when if you open positions after a strong correction like the one experienced this march, then you double those targets, so if your initial target was set at 30% now you can raise to 60%.


In the end, no one has ever gone bankrupt banking profits, what bankrupts people is lack of discipline and chasing stocks.

[RhinoRay]

Sol, one question on the update.

Regarding REMX: "VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) Updated
Close half the position out if it trades in the 55.00 to 57.00 ranges. Place orders to deploy another lot in the 45 to 47 ranges and the last lot in the 33.00 to 36 ranges. The order to purchase REMX in the 45 to 47 ranges is contingent on us closing half the position in the 51.00 to 54.00 ranges. However, the order to purchase in one lot in the 33.00 to 36.00 ranges is valid whether our orders to sell half the position in the 51.00 to 54.00 ranges are filled or not."

Do we close half the position in the 55 to 57 range or 51 to 54 range?

[SOL]

Close the position out in the 55 to 57 ranges, the second part is a typo.

[rxw210]

Thanks, Sol! As I am new here, is there a quick reference to "healthy gain"? I was following your range strictly before. Again, thank you!

There is some info on this topic in the passcoded section. However, it's relatively simple. Find a profit target that appeals to you and one that you are content with and use that a guideline of when it sell half your position. Some aim for 25, some for 40, and there are some that push it all the way north of 80%. The higher you set it, the more risk you take.

One note is that when if you open positions after a strong correction like the one experienced this march, then you double those targets, so if your initial target was set at 30% now you can raise to 60%.


In the end, no one has ever gone bankrupt banking profits, what bankrupts people is lack of discipline and chasing stocks.

Thank you very much for the quick guidence. It is very helpful and I will take look in the passcoded section.