November 5th

[SOL]

I’m grateful for always questioning and observing peoples behaviors and eventually stumbling into this small community

It was very refreshing reading SOLs articles and it let a fire in me that I knew I had however difficult to actually find it, especially alone.

I was not a person in financial markets, however when I was 17 I knew how bad the FED was and how corrupt the bankers are. The only issue was I never thought I can take that knowledge and capitalize on it. My family is also religious and not found of the elite.

That all changed when I started working in healthcare and wanted to do a fun side job hobby. Now, I can see myself trading entirely and eventually leaving my occupation, however slowly but sure

You can start a fire without a spark, you can't change the way you think without accepting the fact that you will have to challenge not only yourself but many outsiders which will include friends and family. The mere thought of accepting the idea that you have to challenge something to succeed/change is enough to trigger change. Sadly, the masses don't even get to this part, for they accept the order that is given to them, even though this order is nothing but a fake perception.

Resistance is not futile it is the very essence of life. From the day you are born, its all about resistance, the day you stop resisting is the day you die. Most people die mentally decades before their bodies give in


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=129kuDCQtHs

[Triplethought]

Resistance is not futile it is the very essence of life. From the day you are born, its all about resistance, the day you stop resisting is the day you die. Most people die mentally decades before their bodies give in

Sol, Based on this observations can you think of two or 3 indicators of people who "die mentally" before their bodies give in" What I have observed a lot is the opposite... people who start having physical problems (pain) with their body or health problems start to give up on life.

I'm trying to think of examples of the other way around. Certainly anyone who hates their jobs and refuses to change it might qualify. Or people who won't spend the effort to learn and are stuck in the same town and same life that they don't like. But in some cases they have responsibilities (such as a kid) and don't see a way out.

One thing that happened to me when I went thru a divorce is I was "stuck" emotionally and couldn't make decisions for a while.

I recently watched the Social Dilemma on Netflix. I think every TI investor might be interested in it. I haven't left Facebook yet, but I certainly try not to let it influence my attitudes or politics. Now when people rage on their I just encourage them (nicely) to slow down and think. As you have said it doesn't win me many friends.

I think emotional trauma (death, illness, moving, new job, relationship stresses etc) lead to these stuck conditions. But some people have chemical imbalance (i.e they need to see psychiatrists to get on meds). Others just have low IQ. This sounds arrogant and I suppose it is but I'm learning a lot with "greater fool investing" - Which is what I call the tactical investor method to my friends. The good news is there seem to be no shortage of greater fools. For example I still can't believe I made money on a turd company like Angi's list (and I have a limit order to buy more turds if the price goes down).

I was also shocked to see IRBT go down into our buy range the other day given they had announced such good earnings 7 days earlier. It's like I'm playing chess with people who only see the current move instead of 1 move ahead.

Having said that, I still don't understand what you mean by mass psychology. I wish there were a way to quantify MP without reading all the woo woo stuff on your list.

[Budge]

Having said that, I still don't understand what you mean by mass psychology. I wish there were a way to quantify MP without reading all the woo woo stuff on your list.

On Sol's TI Lounge I've been having a discussion with DivineTouch on ARK funds and it so happened I got an email today with an interview of Cathie Wood (the founder of ARK):

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-a ... newsletter

In it there's this quote:

"In October 2013, I remember sitting in Chicago at the Morningstar Conference—I had never been to an ETF conference—and Eugene Fama, the keynote, says, “We know that active is dead and that it's a losing proposition. And we know the ETF industry is set up for years and years and years of growth.”

When he said that, the whole room erupted, clapping, and I'm thinking to myself, “Wow, I think I'm the only active investor in this room.” My first thought was, goodness! But my second thought was, because I am a contrarian investor, “If everybody here believes this that strongly, maybe I am on to something in starting ARK.”

I learned very early in my career that if everyone is moving in one direction under a given set of assumptions, and an investor moves in the opposite direction, and, against all expectations, is correct, the rewards are enormous."

For me, I'd not have been so logical or comfortable in that type of setting. I've been in masses of people where they get stirred up and the energy given off is palpable and difficult to resist.

[AstuteShift]

Being in a crowd, it’s difficult to separate yourself from the herd if you’re not aware of social dynamics

Once you are, then it’s very easy to separate oneself from the herd and see for what the event or situation is with a clear mind

The ellipsis manual has great sections on social dynamics

[AstuteShift]

I’m grateful for always questioning and observing peoples behaviors and eventually stumbling into this small community

It was very refreshing reading SOLs articles and it let a fire in me that I knew I had however difficult to actually find it, especially alone.

I was not a person in financial markets, however when I was 17 I knew how bad the FED was and how corrupt the bankers are. The only issue was I never thought I can take that knowledge and capitalize on it. My family is also religious and not found of the elite.

That all changed when I started working in healthcare and wanted to do a fun side job hobby. Now, I can see myself trading entirely and eventually leaving my occupation, however slowly but sure

You can start a fire without a spark, you can't change the way you think without accepting the fact that you will have to challenge not only yourself but many outsiders which will include friends and family. The mere thought of accepting the idea that you have to challenge something to succeed/change is enough to trigger change. Sadly, the masses don't even get to this part, for they accept the order that is given to them, even though this order is nothing but a fake perception.

Resistance is not futile it is the very essence of life. From the day you are born, its all about resistance, the day you stop resisting is the day you die. Most people die mentally decades before their bodies give in


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=129kuDCQtHs

Absolutely, adapt or die. It’s ingrained and now I have no hesitation. Life also got simpler as well

[Triplethought]

When he said that, the whole room erupted, clapping, and I'm thinking to myself, “Wow, I think I'm the only active investor in this room.” My first thought was, goodness! But my second thought was, because I am a contrarian investor, “If everybody here believes this that strongly, maybe I am on to something in starting ARK.”

I learned very early in my career that if everyone is moving in one direction under a given set of assumptions, and an investor moves in the opposite direction, and, against all expectations, is correct, the rewards are enormous."

That's a great story. I still somewhat cling to the belief that it's hard to outperform index funds and ETFs in the long run (based on the award winning research done back in the 70s). Also even recently some hedge fund managers who outperformed the market for 15 years stumbled and tanked. Up until this year I *thought* a vanguard ETF I was in was the same as the S&P index advocated by vogel and buffet. Boy was I wrong

My attitude was informed A) by John Vogel's little red book of investing B) Warren Buffet. Now this article below makes the point that fees are a big part of the problem and one difference is the only "fees" we're incurring is the now minimal trading fees (that's new) and perhaps the cost of the newsletter (minimal ). But I still remain skeptical that the returns we've seen this year can be sustained. I HOPE I'm wrong and will be happy even if the returns slip by 50%.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/warren-b ... ven-close/

[SOL]

Sol, Based on this observations can you think of two or 3 indicators of people who "die mentally" before their bodies give in" What I have observed a lot is the opposite... people who start having physical problems (pain) with their body or health problems start to give up on life.

I'm trying to think of examples of the other way around. Certainly anyone who hates their jobs and refuses to change it might qualify. Or people who won't spend the effort to learn and are stuck in the same town and same life that they don't like. But in some cases they have responsibilities (such as a kid) and don't see a way out.

One thing that happened to me when I went thru a divorce is I was "stuck" emotionally and couldn't make decisions for a while.

I recently watched the Social Dilemma on Netflix. I think every TI investor might be interested in it. I haven't left Facebook yet, but I certainly try not to let it influence my, th attitudes or politics. Now when people rage on their I just encourage them (nicely) to slow down and think. As you have said it doesn't win me many friends.

I think emotional trauma (death, illness, moving, new job, relationship stresses etc) lead to these stuck conditions. But some people have chemical imbalance (i.e they need to see psychiatrists to get on meds). Others just have low IQ. This sounds arrogant and I suppose it is but I'm learning a lot with "greater fool investing" - Which is what I call the tactical investor method to my friends. The good news is there seem to be no shortage of greater fools. For example I still can't believe I made money on a turd company like Angi's list (and I have a limit order to buy more turds if the price goes down).

I was also shocked to see IRBT go down into our buy range the other day given they had announced such good earnings 7 days earlier. It's like I'm playing chess with people who only see the current move instead of 1 move ahead.

Having said that, I still don't understand what you mean by mass psychology. I wish there were a way to quantify MP without reading all the woo woo stuff on your list.

You have already given some examples of how people die mentally before they die physically. Another example is having fake goals, For example, I need to make so much money because I need this and this, then you hit that target and you want to make more because you need this and this, it never ends, the reason it never ends is that the person never had a real goal. Their entire life is based on someone else's narrative.

People that claim to be stuck in a rut; they are not stuck they just don't want to see the whole picture, they have limited their vision. All those chemical imbalances, etc are related to excessive stress hormones. If you are in a tough situation, it won't change by crying, or stressing out or praying. It will only change if you change your perception. So instead of stressing out why not take the contrarian view and do the opposite or go for the ultimate move, the observer perspective. Observe the situation through the impartial eyes, and you will be amazed at what you see.

As for getting a good hang MP, watch Plato's allegory of the cave and read some of Aesop's tales. It should give you a pretty good foundation if you understand the simple concepts portrayed in the video on Plator's allegory and the ones discusses Aesops Fables.