Tell us a little bit about yourself and or your trading experience

[SOL]

Sol thanks for the follow up; the lesson was very helpful.

I fully understand the monthly chart perspective and will heed your training on this, but how do you make a decision on a stock that has insignificant data from a monthly perspective (eg recent IPO in last year or so)? Based on your approach I lean away from these and say to myself to let them have more time to settle and get over the hype, but are there opportunities for these low-data stocks? I see the answer is yes based on SPCE, but maybe you can elaborate on SPCE?

SPCE has some monthly data, but when the monthly data is not there, we look for compelling patterns on the weekly charts. The pattern on the weekly chart for SPCE is quite attractive. Additionally we closely monitor the weekly charts until there is enough data on the monthly charts. If there is not enough data then we will base the entry and exit points on the weekly charts.

So far we have not jumped into an IPO. However, if there ever came out with a stupidity index we would be sure to jump in right away. Stupidity has been in a super trend for decades.

[SOL]

how is it possible to share a chart on the forum?

Save the file on your computer, then go to Go to https://imgbb.com/

Then click on the upload button, find the file upload it

Once you do that you will be provided with embed codes, click on the drop-down menu and select BBcode full linked. If you signup for an account that is free, it will remember your choice and you won’t have to keep selecting BBCode full linked.



Copy that code and past it in your post and the chart will display.

[stefk]

ok thanks

[stefk]

only daily data. Positive divergence. I would let the price touch the 13$ and let it ride to 20$. The theory says the gaps exist to be filled......

[stefk]

correction, I would let it ride till 25$

[stefk]

weekly and daily, MACDs are in neutral zone. there is support at 31$. But the sector is hot. It is maybe the future chinese tesla. If I bought it it would be for the very long term, three years.....

[stefk]

https://www.xiaopeng.com/p5.html

cool electric cars, but its all chinese to me, no website in english, they work only for the chinese market, for the moment.

[DrSven]

Hi everyone,

I have been following TI for 6 months now, reading and learning from market updates, the website and the forum. I also got some lots deployed. Now, I am adding "writing posts" to my activity’s list and want to start by introducing myself

I am 38, chemist with doctor’s degree, based in Germany, Europe. As I am blessed with a fulfilling job, investing is a hobby. Still, I want to learn, get better and hopefully master it someday. Therefore, I am glad to be here.

My way here started with The Motley Fool and its aggressive teasers. Then, I found StockGumShoe deciphering these teasers (and many others). Reading through StockGumShoe’s investment letter database, Tactical Investor caught my interest due to its good recensions and the emphasis of mass psychology, so decided to give it a try.

I started stock investing about three years ago. Writing about my experience now feels like a precious exercise as it makes me reflect even more on my trading than I usually would.

My first stocks were German companies, which I bought after they had dropped considerably. Yes. Bad idea. I committed some more typical beginner’s mistakes and still do probably. Fortunately, I was able to recognize them as such and to learn to deal with losses.
I developed the idea to gather information from so-called "experts", i.e., especially the part of info which they provide “for free” to lure you into their pricy services. I thought if the masses followed these “experts” and bought some of the recommended stocks, I could make some money cautiously following them. This soon got me into technology, green energy, EV (incl. battery and lithium) stocks from all over the world during 2019. I bought when the sector, company, product made sense to me, i.e., I expected it to grow in the years ahead. I did not pay much attention to valuation, fundamentals or technical analysis back then.
I patiently hold my portfolio through some corrections and the CoVid-crash. During the CoVid-crash, I invested my cash reserve in a world-ETF-portfolio and left my stocks untouched. Well, you know what happened next, you have been there too. The recovery was faster than ever expected, at least by the masses. The ETFs raised about 40% in months. “My” stocks and sectors developed an insane momentum. The stock portfolio virtually doubled at the beginning of 2021. I failed to bank the gains at the exact high, of course, as it is hardly possible to time a top, plus I had not learned to deal with gains yet. Still, I made a considerable amount of money – more than enough to cover my beginner’s mistakes.
What should I say – I was lucky as hell. I assume that patience/not panicking played a role but the far bigger part was just luck – I appreciate it but I do not want to rely on it as much for future investments. That is why I am here.

Besides all the investing, I got more and more interested in psychology during the last years, especially in all the tricks that our own mind regularly plays on us (survivorship bias might be one of the most commonly known). I had not connected this to investing before I discovered TI. However, it somehow completes the circle nicely.

Many thanks to Rita (RMSLSP), your detailed introduction encouraged me to write as much as I did

Take care,
Sven

[ultramartian]

https://www.xiaopeng.com/p5.html

cool electric cars, but its all chinese to me, no website in english, they work only for the chinese market, for the moment.

I would not dare treading the waters of EV especially the Chinese ones. Many of them rely heavily on government subsidies. Even if they do finally export their EVs overseas most of their profits will still come from the government's subsidies and export incentives.

[SOL]

@SVEN

Welcome aboard and your lengthy and very interesting introduction might just prompt somebody else to write something. Congrats on your luck or insights into the market or maybe it's a combo of the two, but it's good to see you are in the black.

[stefk]

Willkommen Sven. I have so good memories from Germany. I made my military service in Koln during the eighties. My first fiancee was a german girl from Koln. And everyone always speaks of the french gastronomie, but in Germany, there is also a very good gastronomie with good wines. Yes, I have very good memories from Germany.

[DrSven]

Thanks, Sol.

Danke, stefk. Yes, you are absolutely right concerning German food and wine - though I am biased, obviously

I have a question about risk or risk-reward-ratio, respectively:
I just re-read the info in the pass-coded section and in the last MU. I understand how risk or risk-reward-ratio changes from green to red plays and from primary to secondary candidates. Now, what does it mean to take on a higher risk play?
Does one have to accept and endure higher volatility with a red play vs a green play, for example?
Is a red play more likely to end in a loss / less likely to yield gains?
If a red play yields gains, will it be potentially a higher gain than for green? As gains are compensation for enduring risk, it should be, right?
Is it even possible to describe risk in such simple terms or is it more complex?

Looking forward to your answers.

Sven

[SOL]

Higher risk plays are associated with more volatility. During times of turmoil, they will pull back much faster than regular green labelled plays. Secondly, the odds of them rallying strongly or correcting strongly are higher, independent of what the market does. In other words, if you can’t deal with risk, one should avoid plays labelled in red. To minimize risk and maximize profit, we use risk to reward models for determining entry points

Depending on the volatility of the stock, the model will issue a range of entry points for the 1st lot. So let’s say the stock is trading at 70 and the stock is volatile, then 1st entry point issued could be in the 55 to 60 ranges. Based on overall market volatility, we decide whether we should opt for 55 or 60 or opt for a range from 57 to 60 to deploy the 1st lot. Lastly, we deploy one lot at a time.

[Brian]

Thankyou DrSven for your question as I had often wondered about this myself, and Sol for the answer I was hoping for. In my limited experience I have found it easier to just replace the word risk with volatility in my mind as I read the updates. It makes adding on small additional amounts easier when a little extra cash becomes available such as with the impeccable timing of the 50% sale of the HIMX calls. Thanks Sol.

I am desperately trying to learn technical analysis, so when Sol would recommend a buy point I would look for previous support/resistance to confirm my analysis which would work sometimes but other times I just scratch my head. Now reading it could also be based on volatility and maybe a percent explains a lot. Thank you.

[RMSLSP]

Hi everyone,

I have been following TI for 6 months now, reading and learning from market updates, the website and the forum. I also got some lots deployed. Now, I am adding "writing posts" to my activity’s list and want to start by introducing myself

I am 38, chemist with doctor’s degree, based in Germany, Europe. As I am blessed with a fulfilling job, investing is a hobby. Still, I want to learn, get better and hopefully master it someday. Therefore, I am glad to be here.

My way here started with The Motley Fool and its aggressive teasers. Then, I found StockGumShoe deciphering these teasers (and many others). Reading through StockGumShoe’s investment letter database, Tactical Investor caught my interest due to its good recensions and the emphasis of mass psychology, so decided to give it a try.

I started stock investing about three years ago. Writing about my experience now feels like a precious exercise as it makes me reflect even more on my trading than I usually would.

My first stocks were German companies, which I bought after they had dropped considerably. Yes. Bad idea. I committed some more typical beginner’s mistakes and still do probably. Fortunately, I was able to recognize them as such and to learn to deal with losses.
I developed the idea to gather information from so-called "experts", i.e., especially the part of info which they provide “for free” to lure you into their pricy services. I thought if the masses followed these “experts” and bought some of the recommended stocks, I could make some money cautiously following them. This soon got me into technology, green energy, EV (incl. battery and lithium) stocks from all over the world during 2019. I bought when the sector, company, product made sense to me, i.e., I expected it to grow in the years ahead. I did not pay much attention to valuation, fundamentals or technical analysis back then.
I patiently hold my portfolio through some corrections and the CoVid-crash. During the CoVid-crash, I invested my cash reserve in a world-ETF-portfolio and left my stocks untouched. Well, you know what happened next, you have been there too. The recovery was faster than ever expected, at least by the masses. The ETFs raised about 40% in months. “My” stocks and sectors developed an insane momentum. The stock portfolio virtually doubled at the beginning of 2021. I failed to bank the gains at the exact high, of course, as it is hardly possible to time a top, plus I had not learned to deal with gains yet. Still, I made a considerable amount of money – more than enough to cover my beginner’s mistakes.
What should I say – I was lucky as hell. I assume that patience/not panicking played a role but the far bigger part was just luck – I appreciate it but I do not want to rely on it as much for future investments. That is why I am here.

Besides all the investing, I got more and more interested in psychology during the last years, especially in all the tricks that our own mind regularly plays on us (survivorship bias might be one of the most commonly known). I had not connected this to investing before I discovered TI. However, it somehow completes the circle nicely.

Many thanks to Rita (RMSLSP), your detailed introduction encouraged me to write as much as I did

Take care,
Sven

Great introduction, it was a pleasure to read!

All the best