Interim Market Update May 5, 2021

[SOL]

We are in the age of debase (deflate the currency) or die. Once you understand that, the rest is rubbish. Sure we will have some backbreaking corrections now and then but unless the trend changes all of those corrections no matter how strong they are and how insane they might drive you (and the only reason you will go insane is that you decided to fall in love with Mama Fear and breaking up is usually hard to do) embrace them, for the only way to become rich is to buy when others are selling.


A chart from March 27, 2020



Another Chart from March 26, 2020



Current long term Chart of the Dow




So what do you do? Well, when you panic you can either slap yourself back to reality or play some good music, sip some booze if you are in a place where marijuana is legal light up a blunt and relax, for the long term outlook is certain, the markets will trend higher for the Feds will continue to pump money into this market at an unprecedented rate.

[George1010]

We are in the age of debase (deflate the currency) or die. Once you understand that, the rest is rubbish. Sure we will have some backbreaking corrections now and then but unless the trend changes all of those corrections no matter how strong they are and how insane they might drive you (and the only reason you will go insane is that you decided to fall in love with Mama Fear and breaking up is usually hard to do) embrace them, for the only way to become rich is to buy when others are selling.


So what do you do? Well, when you panic you can either slap yourself back to reality or play some good music, sip some booze if you are in a place where marijuana is legal light up a blunt and relax, for the long term outlook is certain, the markets will trend higher for the Feds will continue to pump money into this market at an unprecedented rate.

Sol I more or less agree with your assessment





I have been patiently waiting for a pullback. I noticed that a large number of companies so far that has reported great results has taken a beating. CHGG, MTCH and Today CYBR. Yesterday I loaded up on MTCH when it sold off and bought some calls My calls are up 40% in one day

[langdj]

@sol

I am somewhat confused by your deflation statement

Fed printing clearly leads to inflation, at least on assets like houses and stocks. We also notice commodities like lumber, food etc going up. Are you saying AI is going to replace so many workers that it is going to be an even greater deflationary force than the Fed Printing?

Secondly, if the costs of goods and services go down, revenues go down. Even if profits are up from less workers won't lower revenues lower the stock prices?

Thanks for the clarification.

[AstuteShift]

@sol

I am somewhat confused by your deflation statement

Fed printing clearly leads to inflation, at least on assets like houses and stocks. We also notice commodities like lumber, food etc going up. Are you saying AI is going to replace so many workers that it is going to be an even greater deflationary force than the Fed Printing?

Secondly, if the costs of goods and services go down, revenues go down. Even if profits are up from less workers won't lower revenues lower the stock prices?

Thanks for the clarification.

The FED has no choice but to money print, also inflation has been here since 1913 when the FED act was enacted and Nixon amplified the scam. However due to the world reserve currency status, no country has the balls to stop the USA since countries reserves are based on dollars. Without a solid replacement, then the markets all around the world will crash to the next galaxy

The FED knows AI will be a massive deflation force, all the experts are clueless and think the 1970s scenario will happen. Guess what? The money velocity is at all time lows and will likely stay there for the foreseeable future

Inflation is not an issue since the scam is there in our faces and the FED purposely removes certain data and passes certain data like the CPI as acceptable. Just one big scam

The masses will continue to buy useless crap with all the free stimulus money and soon will be in VR and hooked up on drugs. Companies will make record profits due to AI being extremely efficient. Imagine one awesome worker with AI, it will do the work of 10-20 people and also the fraction of the time

AI will be a massive GDP boost, the FED knows this and its job is to keep the masses clueless of the trends and to focus on crap that means nothing

[Yodean]

@sol
I am somewhat confused by your deflation statement

I think it was a simple typo.

When Sol wrote "we are in the age of debase (deflate the currency) or die," I think he meant: "we are in the age of currency debasement (inflate the currency away) or die."

Otherwise, I tend to agree with what YY wrote.

There will be asset price inflation (i.e. as you know, stocks, real estate, equities in general, will likely go up), but real economic deflation (i.e. more people won't have gainful employment leading to the need/narrative of universal basic income, more jobs taken over by A.I./automation, etc.).

The USD will indeed lose purchasing power, but compared to other currencies, will be the "cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry," so will likely rise against the other currencies and continue to be a safe haven and attract foreign capital flow.

Or something like that, lol.

[langdj]

We are all the same page then, I was just confused by the wording. I read Ed Griffen's "Creature from Jekyll Island Many years ago". I was also a big Ron Paul fan back in the day. It has only gotten worse since then.

Thanks for the clarification on Sol meant guys

[SOL]

@sol

I am somewhat confused by your deflation statement

Fed printing clearly leads to inflation, at least on assets like houses and stocks. We also notice commodities like lumber, food etc going up. Are you saying AI is going to replace so many workers that it is going to be an even greater deflationary force than the Fed Printing?

Secondly, if the costs of goods and services go down, revenues go down. Even if profits are up from less workers won't lower revenues lower the stock prices?

Thanks for the clarification.

The question was answered before I could get to it, so nothing much to add that the world at large is being primed for the wrong event. One could argue that inflation is an illusion for if you plot the money supply against cost of a basket of the best goods that react to inflation, Gold, Silver, lumber, etc etc. in general you will notice that the price movements were based more on supply and demand then on inflationary forces.

For example, Gold just barely traded past its 2011 highs but when all the new money created since then, Gold is still under the water. Look at the prices of all commodities. if inflation was really being factored in, then none of those markets should have crashed.

Inflation is really when based on its original definition, which states inflation is a rise in the money supply. More money being created out of thin air. However, the Fed has cleverly masked the symptoms of inflation or found ways to deal with it. The symptoms are a rise in prices

[AstuteShift]

We are all the same page then, I was just confused by the wording. I read Ed Griffen's "Creature from Jekyll Island Many years ago". I was also a big Ron Paul fan back in the day. It has only gotten worse since then.

Thanks for the clarification on Sol meant guys

It’s only terrible for those who are not prepared, unfortunately 90 percent have to lose for the 10 percent to win

[Budge]

We are all the same page then, I was just confused by the wording. I read Ed Griffen's "Creature from Jekyll Island Many years ago". I was also a big Ron Paul fan back in the day. It has only gotten worse since then.

Thanks for the clarification on Sol meant guys

It’s only terrible for those who are not prepared, unfortunately 90 percent have to lose for the 10 percent to win

And, of that 10%, 90% will get screwed so that the 1% win!

[AstuteShift]

We are all the same page then, I was just confused by the wording. I read Ed Griffen's "Creature from Jekyll Island Many years ago". I was also a big Ron Paul fan back in the day. It has only gotten worse since then.

Thanks for the clarification on Sol meant guys

It’s only terrible for those who are not prepared, unfortunately 90 percent have to lose for the 10 percent to win

And, of that 10%, 90% will get screwed so that the 1% win!

It’s unfortunate but no one has been able to wake up the masses so all we can do is further better ourselves and take advantage of opportunities

[Budge]

@sol

I am somewhat confused by your deflation statement

Fed printing clearly leads to inflation, at least on assets like houses and stocks. We also notice commodities like lumber, food etc going up. Are you saying AI is going to replace so many workers that it is going to be an even greater deflationary force than the Fed Printing?

Secondly, if the costs of goods and services go down, revenues go down. Even if profits are up from less workers won't lower revenues lower the stock prices?

Thanks for the clarification.

The question was answered before I could get to it, so nothing much to add that the world at large is being primed for the wrong event. One could argue that inflation is an illusion for if you plot the money supply against cost of a basket of the best goods that react to inflation, Gold, Silver, lumber, etc etc. in general you will notice that the price movements were based more on supply and demand then on inflationary forces.

For example, Gold just barely traded past its 2011 highs but when all the new money created since then, Gold is still under the water. Look at the prices of all commodities. if inflation was really being factored in, then none of those markets should have crashed.

Inflation is really when based on its original definition, which states inflation is a rise in the money supply. More money being created out of thin air. However, the Fed has cleverly masked the symptoms of inflation or found ways to deal with it. The symptoms are a rise in prices

The traditional rise in the money supply will not inflate a balloon, no matter how much is dumped into "the system". It's never been getting beyond the middleman chokepoint. The banks never passed it on, preferring to hoard their "excess reserves" and get paid interest on it from the Fed.

That has been short circuited recently by paying the punters direct. Sit in a Walmart car park after government largesse payoff and watch the electronic exodus spew forth. The huddled masses staggering out under the weight of new, bigger, brighter tvs etc. This gives the velocity of money inflation theory a chance.

However, the real inflation hitting us is a demand inflation caused by shortages from dislocations of the covid plandemic. Basic commodities are in short supply and cannot meet demand.

[Yodean]